Hoop Futures (Basketball and What's to Come)
by: JWatters
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JJ Redick: The Week From Hell, and His "Draft Stock"
Jun 14, 2006 | 7:29PM | report this

I'm not here to talk about the morality of what happened with JJ Redick on Tuesday morning. Drunk Driving is clearly a criminally dangerous offense, but I also wonder how many bloggers here have "toed the line" with alchohol and getting behind the wheel. Let's let the North Carolina fans blindly savage, and the Duke fans blindly defend.

The real issue here is what happens to JJ's draft stock? We all agree that this couldn't have happened at a worse time. Combine the arrest with the news that he may have a very serious back injury (the real reason he was back in NC), and most people seem to think that this past week has cost Redick a ton of money.

I would hesitate to jump to that conclusion.

Obviously, having your mug shot show up national TV is never a good thing, but the average fan probably thinks of the terms "draft stock" in a black and white sense that doesn't accurately represent the rising and falling of players on draft night. While we see players rising and falling on internet mock draft boards on a weekly basis based off their performance, draft night isn't one person's board. It is a combination of 30 boards - 30 decision makers with different methods and opinions, and 30 teams with widely varying needs.

The reality is that even though JJ Redick's stock was considered to be firmly planted somewhere between the mid-late lottery and the middle of the first round, there are probably only a couple of teams drafting in that range seriously looking at him. Not every club is looking for a deadeye shooting specialist that is likely a roleplayer his entire career. From what I can tell, the three teams seriously looking at Redick are Houston, Orlando, and Utah.  

So forget about lottery, mid first round, or dropping to the second. What do Houston, Orlando, and Utah think of these developments?

On one hand, we could get an image conscious executive that could get cold feet about drafting a kid that he was assuming wouldn't make these types of headlines. On the other, decision makers probably know a lot about the person that they are considering drafting at this point in the process. If they believe JJ Redick is a good kid that made a mistake, this incident might not factor into their evaluation one bit. In the end, it could easily come down to the demeanor and values of that one GM that was planning on taking him before this week.

The back injury can looked at in much the same way. If Redick thought he was over scrutinized in everything he did at Duke, just wait until NBA teams get out the microscope to take a look at his back. Redick may be back on the court doing workouts in the next week, but his back was red flagged during his physical in Orlando. Anybody with even a thought of drafting Redick will be twice as thorough as they probably need to be, and will get to the bottom of what is going on there. Nobody, and I mean nobody, is going to waste a first round pick on a low-upside guy like Redick that might have a career-threatening back injury.

And this is the real risk that Redick runs on draft night. Houston, Orlando, and Utah are going to be well-informed. If this is nothing and JJ Redick is going to be 100% in no time, these teams will know it. It may not even matter if Redick is going to miss four months like has been reported. Redick might just be the most visible college basketball player of the last four years. Teams know what they are getting with JJ, and a four-month layoff isn't going to change anything about him as a player. As long a team can be confident that JJ Redick will make a full recovery...

But what happens if he happens to slip past all three? What if he falls into that late first round territory, where teams weren't expecting him to be available and don't have as good a read on his back situation?  Pick your cliched comparison: Redick alone in the green room crying harder than he did after his choke job in the NCAA Tournament, or Redick alone in the green groom crying like Rashard Lewis nearly a decade ago. It doesn't matter whether Redick is going to be back on the court before the season starts or not - teams are going to shy away from drafting JJ Redick if he gets past a certain few key teams.

We saw this with Loren Woods in 2001, and we could easily see it again with Redick in 2006.

So how does the past week affect JJ Redick's draft stock? We won't have any idea until draft night. It is very easy to see him keeping his spot in the lottery, but JJ should really start to sweat only once he falls past Utah at #14...

18 Comments | Add a comment   categories: NBA Draft, NCAA BB, NBA, J.J. Redick
 
Lottery Analysis: The Top 6
May 28, 2006 | 4:47PM | report this

1.   1. Toronto

Options: Andrea Bargnani, LaMarcus Aldridge, Tyrus Thomas

Bryan Colangelo is the man of the hour, coming off a masterful stint in Phoenix and now armed with a draft pick that should give him a major building block in developing a similar system in Toronto. That piece is now generally considered to be Italian forward Andrea Bargnani. I’m not sure that the Raptors are particularly in need of another finesse forward (Chris Bosh agrees with me, apparently), but Bargnani would be a nice fit if Colangelo is planning on building the Eastern Conference version of the Suns. Aldridge and Thomas will be the other two players mentioned at the top, but both replicate much of what Bosh brings to the table.

Andrea Bargnani: The Dirk comparison has taken hold especially since Bargnani has become associated with all the #1 pick rumors, but I think it is early for that. Dirk is most certainly a “prototype” player, in the same way that every athletic scoring wing is compared to MJ, and every lanky big man is the next KG. Bargnani has impressive footspeed and the ability to create off the dribble, but calling him the next Nowitzki might be a bit of a stretch. Bargnani certainly can shoot the ball. He is very comfortable getting his feet set and spotting up from beyond the arc, and has a silky smooth release. His biggest task will be adding strength, not necessarily so he can add a post game, but so that he can take a bit of a bump as he gets past slower, stronger defenders on the perimeter.

Sleeper Pick: Adam Morrison

If the Raptors are planning to go the way of the Suns, a big man might not be the biggest priority in this draft. The backcourt lacks an established star, and Morrison would fit in perfectly in a Phoenix-style system.

2. Chicago

Options: LaMarcus Aldridge, Tyrus Thomas, Adam Morrison

Chicago is on the verge legitimacy for the first time since the Jordan era, and a polished post scorer is the team’s most glaring need. Luckily for Bulls fans, it looks like one will be available at #2. LaMarcus Aldridge regularly displayed an impressive array of post moves during his sophomore season at Texas, even if he didn’t get the ball as often as he should have. Aldridge seems to be a better fit than Tyrus Thomas, as Thomas does a lot of the same things that Tyson Chandler does, and probably isn’t an immediate upgrade there. If you like to look at draft history to project picks, then you probably believe Paxson will give long, hard look to Adam Morrison – even if he doesn’t fill a need.

LaMarcus Aldridge: Aldridge may have the best combination of polish and upside of any American in the draft. He is probably on the plus side of 6’10, moves very well for his size, and has added a significant amount of bulk since arriving at Texas. At the same time, Aldridge utilizes almost every post move in the book. He has a Rasheed Wallace-style turnaround fadeaway, a solid jump hook, and a deadeye midrange jumper. He even broke out a mini-sky hook a couple of times during Big XII play. The issue with Aldridge is whether he can bring it every night. At times, (see games against Kansas and Oklahoma) he looked like the clear-cut top selection in this draft. At others (see both of Texas’ games against Joseph Jones and Texas A&M), he looked soft and uninterested. Aldridge certainly didn’t get the ball enough from his guards, but also appears to be lacking a bit of that killer instinct.

3. Charlotte

Options: Adam Morrison, Rudy ####, Tyrus Thomas

Charlotte’s plans took both backward and forward steps in 2006, as Raymond Felton emerged as one of the league’s top point guards, but frontcourt prospects Emeka Okafor and Sean May both spent most of the year on the sideline. The Bobcats probably aren’t in a position to pick for need just yet, but a formidable wing scorer would look very nice next to Felton. There are several qualified prospects here, but Morrison appears to be a very nice fit in between Felton and Gerald Wallace in the starting lineup. There have been rumblings about Bernie Bickerstaff liking Rudy ####, but we heard some negative things about Raymond Felton coming out of the Bobcats’ camp before the draft last year. I’m sure Charlotte will seriously consider Tyrus Thomas as well...

Adam Morrison: People will talk about his lack of footspeed right until opening night, when Morrison will command double-teams from the opening tap. He is containable with good team defense, but impossible to defend in one-on-one situations. He is likely somewhat of a defensive liability, but that is what Gerald Wallace is for, and the Bobcats appear to be developing into a team that wants to outscore you, not lock you up. If Charlotte does get lucky enough to end up with Morrison, this could be a turning point for the franchise.

4. Portland

Options: Tyrus Thomas, Brandon Roy, Rudy ####

This could be the first really pivotal moment in the draft, as Portland needs both a big man and a wing, and they should have an option for both here. The Trailblazers would take the local Adam Morrison in a heartbeat if he is there. If not, management has a tough decision to make between Tyrus Thomas and another area product, Brandon Roy. On one hand, Portland has made a habit out of drafting raw, high-upside prospects like Thomas. Losing Joel Pryzbilla over the summer would leave Nate McMillan with very little in the frontcourt, and Thomas could emerge as a star within three years. On the other hand, the really young youth movement hasn’t amounted to much thus far. Roy could step in nicely next to Martell Webster, and give McMillan the kind of immediate impact player he probably needs to save his job.

Tyrus Thomas: Plenty of folks seem to be down on Thomas these days, and I somewhat agree if we are talking about him going #1 overall. This is a kid that might need a couple of years before he is ready to make a significant contribution. While Thomas has some face the basket skill and may end up spending some time on the perimeter on the offensive end, let it be known he is very much a big man. He’s too skinny to be an effective one-on-one defender on the blocks, and doesn’t have a low post offensive game beyond garbage and fast break type situations. It is hard for me to see a player that can’t effectively defend or score on his projected position going #1 overall. However, Thomas still has more upside than any player in the draft. He is freakishly athletic, freakishly long, is improving at a freakish rate, and may not be done growing yet. He projects to be a phenomenal shot blocker at the next level, and most importantly, has a great feel for the game and the mindset to keep improving. Thomas has the feel of a player that Portland select. 

5. Atlanta

Options: Brandon Roy, Marcus Williams, Randy Foye

This is the toughest pick in lottery to project. The top two prospects left on the board are wings, and Atlanta is already overloaded there. The Hawks are in need of a point guard and a center, but are unlikely to find a logical fit at this spot. Billy Knight has enough assets to pull off a trade here and my guess is that if Brandon Roy falls out of the top 4, teams will be interested in moving up to get him. This is why I have projected Roy at number five, instead of a point guard. Of course, Atlanta’s system doesn’t require a natural point guard on the offensive end. Much of Marcus Williams’ creative, pass-first ability could go to waste, making Randy Foye a potential fit here. Still, I don’t think either player is worth a top 5 pick. Roy has more ballhandling ability than your average 2-guard, and could be a good fit in Atlanta. Could Billy Knight do the unthinkable and take another wing?

Brandon Roy: Brandon Roy is the highest riser of 2006, and should become the poster boy for staying in school after an unsuccessful attempt out of high school and three injury-marred years as an underclassman. Roy’s emergence was made possible by the graduation of Nate Robinson, and some serious work on his outside shot. Now that defenders have to be honest, Roy is very difficult to deal with off the dribble. If the help does manage to cut him off, he almost never fails to find the open man. “Smooth” is the word that defines his game. Roy may not have star upside (probably just an average athlete at the NBA level) but he is pretty darn close, and he is probably the safest pick amongst the consensus top six. The only thing to worry about is that bothersome knee…

Sleeper Pick: Patrick O’Bryant

The Hawks need a center, and Patrick O’Bryant is well on his way to emerging as the top true center prospect in the draft. His stock is already on the rise, and will only continue to move higher as O’Bryant starts beating up other big men in workouts. This is highest O’Bryant could conceivably go, but don’t be surprised if he ends up getting some serious consideration here.

6.  Minnesota

Options: Rudy ####, Patrick O’Bryant, Marcus Williams

The Timberwolves are trying to trade this pick, as Kevin McHale isn’t going to get that winning season he needs to save his job with his current roster. Unfortunately, a series of bumbling moves leaves Minnesota with several mediocre players tied to horrible long-term contracts, and little overall flexibility. For this reason, my guess is that McHale ends up keeping the pick. The Timberwolves could use a little bit of everything around Kevin Garnett, but the critical need for the past two seasons has been a space eater/####er/garbage guy for the frontcourt to complement KG’s perimeter tendencies. However, Rudy #### is the top talent left on this board, and certainly has the ability to put fans back in the seats. He could fit in with Ricky Davis and Rashad McCants to form a respectable wing rotation. Local product Patrick O’Bryant would be a nice story, and will end up getting considered by teams in this range. Minnesota could attempt to resign Marcus Banks at the point guard spot, but will have to give Marcus Williams a look.

Rudy ####: Somewhat of an enigma the past two seasons, nobody can deny Rudy ####’s immense athletic gifts. He stands 6’9, but plays even larger with his formidable wingspan and electric athleticism. His outside shot is fundamentally sound, and the sky is the limit when it comes to his defensive potential. If a team comes away with convinced that his feel for the game isn’t an issue, #### could easily be picked higher than this. That is the issue here, however. #### tends to fall in love with his outside shot and has a tendency to float. When he takes his game closer to the basket and focuses on putting the ball on the floor, he looks every bit a #1 pick. If Rudy #### chooses to play a Shawn Marion-style game, stardom awaits. If he continues to envision himself as a Tracy McGrady clone, the mid-lotto is probably where he belongs. It should be mentioned that there were stretches this winter where #### did play up to his potential. It isn’t as if he has underachieved for his entire career, and he did play on a team loaded with veteran talent at the wing. My thought has always been that #### would have been a much more natural fit at the PF slot at the college level, if it wasn’t for Connecticut’s loaded stable of big men.

General Comments:

 - While everybody is talking about how there isn't a star at the top of the lottery and that this draft is accordingly weak, I think this viewpoint needs a bit of clarification. While none of the "top six" picks appears to be in that "can't miss" category, I think there certainly is a star within that group. I would be shocked if none of the six became a star, it just isn't clear who really sticks out at the moment. It could be the sixth taken just as easily as the first. Think about that when considering the situations of Atlanta and Minnesota.

 - While I mention a clear-cut top six, don't think for a minute that this group is set in stone. There are two players that really stick out as having the chance to move up in the top half of the lottery. The first would be Patrick O'Bryant, and the second would be Sergio Rodriguez.

O'Bryant has all the attributes of your classic center prospet. He is huge and not even close to done growing, nimble enough to run the floor and keep up on a fast-paced team, improving at a rapid rate, and already a very formidable defensive player. He is clearly a lottery pick at the moment, and could be a high lottery pick by the time draft night rolls around.

We give Andrea Bargnani tons of credit for contributing at Europe's highest levels, but Sergio Rodriguez is turning into a legitimate star in the ACB League as the draft process is beginning. He has been considered a potential high lottery pick for years now, and this is a draft with no premier point guard prospect. His agent says he needs a first round promise to stay in. Expect him to get that promise, and expect it to come higher than what people are projecting at the moment.

Check back early this week, as I project the rest of the lottery.

11 Comments | Add a comment   categories: NBA Draft, NBA
 
Adam Morrison: The Emergence of a Star
May 25, 2006 | 6:30PM | report this

Back in December of 2004, Adam Morrison hadn’t taken the world by storm just yet. His hair was only starting to look shaggy, and nobody would have recognized the slogan “fear the stache”. He probably couldn’t even grow one yet.  

There were no Larry Bird comparisons, no triple teams, and no verbal battles with overmatched opponents. We had yet to see the buzzer beaters, the 40-point outbursts, or even one article referencing how he plays Halo with JJ Redick in his free time.

Nonetheless, Adam Morrison was already well on his way to becoming the player you grew to love or hate this past winter.

I first became aware that Mark Few had a special player in December Morrison's sophomore season. The Zags were hosting a highly-ranked Georgia Tech team, and I skipped a Saturday night out on the town to check in on the progress of Gonzaga’s star big man Rony Turiaf, and Georgia Tech point guard Jarrett Jack.

Of course, Turiaf and Jack were far from the story that night. Adam Morrison scored 24 points, mostly of the spectacular variety. There were baseline fadeaways from well behind the backboard, midrange floaters of nearly impossible difficulty, and a few standard set 3-point shots thrown in for good measure. The final score was 85-73, but Morrison won that game for Gonzaga before halftime.

I began talking about him as a lottery pick immediately, and sat back to watch him emerge as an All-American.

He slowly moved ahead of Turiaf as Gonzaga’s number one option, and even though his potentially game winning 3-pointer clanked off the back of the rim in the Zags’ 2nd round Tourney loss to Texas Tech, Morrison ended the season on a high note. He scored 25 or more in each of his last four games, including a then-career high 30 in the WCC championship game.

By this time, Adam Morrison had grown a full-out mop on the top of his head.

Over the summer, I casually mentioned to several confidants that Adam Morrison was going to average 30 points per game in 2006. Of course I said it with a smirk on my face – I don’t even know if I fully believed myself. At any rate, even I wasn’t prepared for what hit the Maui Invitational last November.

The newly mustached Morrison played like a man possessed. He wasn’t connecting on his usual assortment of midrange concoctions against Maryland in the first round, but the Terps were no match for his energy and craft around the basket and relentlessness in the open court. He finished with 25 points in the Gonzaga win.

But Morrison was far from finished. One night later he poured in 43 points from every conceivable angle in Gonzaga’s amazing 3-OT win over Michigan State. Pundits called it one of the greatest basketball games ever, and despite playing 52 of 55 possible minutes, Morrison was at his best in the overtime sessions. He created shot after difficult shot, and looked ready to go another 40 minutes as he celebrated the win.

Adam Morrison was a scraggly-haired, skinny white kid with diabetes - the ultimate underdog - playing for the ultimate underdog team, and well on his way to making my half-hearted 30 points per game projection look like genius. The Larry Bird comparisons popped up everywhere, and the whirlwind began.

Morrison fought off constant double and triple teams score 43 points in archrival Washington’s building, and shocked Oklahoma State at the buzzer with a now famous banked-in, buzzer beating 3-pointer. The national media fell in love with their new unlikely hero, and he was now gracing magazine covers and newspaper headlines on a daily basis. Fans were wearing fake mustaches to games. If people weren’t talking about whether or not the Larry Bird comparisons were accurate, they were imploring him to take a shower.

Morrison’s individual achievements and aura of invincibility continued to pile up as conference play began, but such unprecedented success had put a giant target on his back, especially when he entered hostile, crackerbox WCC gyms. The WCC had never seen such a spectacle, and suddenly everybody wanted their fifteen minutes of fame – at the  expense of Adam Morrison.  

As the Loyola Marymounts and San Fransisco’s defended him more physically and effectively, a more brazen Morrison began to appear. Where he once would have silently (well, maybe not silently) gone about his business of breaking down opponents, he didn’t appear to stop chirping the entire West Coast Conference tournament – whether it was at his opponents, or the officials.

His verbal battles with San Diego’s Corey Belser (the one player who successful defended Morrison at the college level) became public, and his on-court outbursts more blatant. There were still moments of sheer brilliance (37 points in the second half of a win over Loyola Marymount; 34 points and numerous clutch plays in a comeback win over Stanford), but Morrison’s college career was destined to end on a low note.

Morrison scored 24 points in the heartbreaking Sweet 16 loss to UCLA, but missed a crucial jumper in the final moments, and had to pass the ball to his center after being trapped in the backcourt with the 10-second clock ticking. This resulted in a JP Batista turnover, and the loss.

There was still a bit of spectacular in the tourney. He took over down the stretch in Gonzaga’s second round game against Xavier in classic Morrison style. The game was close headed under five minutes to play, and then Adam Morrison decided that it was time for that to end.

Still, one has to wonder if the old, “underdogish” Morrison would have screamed at the ball and bashed it against his head - like a different kind of man possessed - after converting a crucial late game shot. Morrison eventually would seal that victory at the line, yelling at Xavier guard Stanley Burrell (things I can’t repeat here) literally as the ball was leaving his hands on the decisive free throw.

Morrison’s career would end with a stumble to center court, the once practically invincible madman collapsing onto the jump circle in tears as camera lenses flashed. There is little doubt in my mind that the pre-superstar Morrison would have reacted with that same anguish. I also have little doubt that he would have made his way to the sideline, and cried away the end of his college career in the comforting presence of his teammates.

Morrison’s time at Gonzaga ended in a way very much unrepresentative of the man he has tried so hard to become. Larry Bird would have made that shot and found a way to get around UCLA’s frantic trap, so the legends would say. But Morrison’s true greatness came not from the mustache, the high socks, or all the on-court antics. The fact of the matter is that it will be a long time before we see another player capable of hitting contested, body-contorted, high-arcing jumpers the way that Adam Morrison could.

Adam Morrison’s next stop is the NBA. Some say he doesn’t have the footspeed or defensive ability to keep up. I say the NBA is a constantly evolving game, and that Morrison would fit like a glove on any of the teams that have freewheeled and fast breaked their way to success in the Western Conference playoffs. Give Morrison space on the court, and he will find the bottom of the net.  

Most of all, this is the chance for Adam Morrison to forget about all the fanfare and hype that so obviously weighed on him by the time March rolled around. Come November, he is just another rookie. Nobody is expecting Morrison to come in and turn a franchise around, so the Larry Legend comparisons should be left at Gonzaga. Adam Morrison now has the chance to make his own name.  

 

 

16 Comments | Add a comment   categories: NBA, CBK Recruiting, Adam Morrison
 
Game 7’s Reviewed: Monday night action
May 23, 2006 | 6:23PM | report this

A true Classic…

The early game turned out to be the type of contest we had been waiting for. This one was high-scoring, fun to watch, and competitive the whole way. The Spurs came out with their small lineup again, and the Mavs made short work of it. You really can’t defend Dirk Nowitzki with your average-sized wing, and the less athletic Spurs were helpless with Jason Terry and Josh Howard firing on all cylinders. With the way Dallas was shooting the ball early, this one had the look of a blowout. However, it felt like San Antonio had a run left in them. The Mavs were certain to cool off at some point, and the Spurs slowly crept back into the game.

Jason Terry started missing shots, Nowitzki was at least slowed by Bruce Bowen, Josh Howard went to the bench with foul trouble, and the Spurs found success by going with a bigger lineup. The Mavs tried to adjust, but had no answer for Tim Duncan in the paint. A Manu Ginobili 3-pointer gave San Antonio its first lead of the game, but Dirk Nowitzki came back with what could become his “signature shot”, as he muscled his way past Bruce Bowen for a driving layup and the foul. This wasn’t just a win for the Mavericks. They finally defeated their division rival nemesis, and did it in San Antonio’s building, staring total collapse and a hostile crowd right in the race.Dallas was all smiles today in front of the media, and it is easy to understand why.

Duncan vs Dirk?

While the spectacular nature of the Tim Duncan vs Dirk Nowitzki matchup can’t be understated, I thought the final minutes of Game 7 were particularly interesting.

As amazing as Duncan was in this series and in the second half of Game 7 in particular, the Mavericks were able to bother him when it counted with DeSagana Diop and a lot of help. Dirk Nowitzki, on the other hand, was able to convert when the Mavs needed him to. In the NBA of five years ago, Duncan is clearly the better player. In today’s faster-paced, more freewheeling game, one might have to give the edge to Dirk. Defenses can’t converge around Dirk 20 feet from the basket the way that can when Duncan gets the ball on the block, and the fact that he’s not a dominant defensive player is easy to hide in a system where offense is the feature. Nowitzki appears to be emerging as the ultimate go-to presence in the modern game, and the scary thing is that I don’t think he’s done getting better.

A Tale of Two Tired Teams…

Last Thursday night, the Phoenix Suns looked tired. Steve Nash was on his last legs, and the LA Clippers appeared to barely break a sweat in forcing a Game 7. The Suns looked listless, in stark contrast to the relentless attacking energy we usually see from Mike D’Antoni’s squad.

Of course, you never want to underestimate what a nice 4-day break between games can do for a downtrodden team. The Suns came back with their typical energy in Game 7, and while the Clippers fought a valiant fight for two quarters, it was fairly obvious which direction this game was headed early in the third quarter. Steve Nash looked very much like an MVP, stroking the 3-pointer effortlessly after a stretch of games in which he didn’t even come close to finding his range. Phoenix was able to turn every missed shot into a fast break conversion, and soon it was the Clippers that were pushed past exhaustion.

Sure, the Suns deserved to win the series. They earned homecourt advantage, and won a decisive Game 7 victory. But I can’t help but wonder if the outcome would have been different if this game had taken place on Saturday afternoon…

And what is the logic of putting the decisive game of one of the most entertaining playoff series’ in years in the 9:30 slot on a weeknight when it could have been televised on Saturday or Sunday?

Will the Clipps be back?

That would be a resounding yes.

The worst case is that Corey Maggette could be on his way out and Sam Cassell’s contract ends up being a locker room issue, but the fate of either player probably doesn’t change the fate of this team over the next couple of seasons. Elton Brand has developed into one of the most ruthlessly effective players around, while either Shaun Livingston or Chris Kaman could develop into an all-star within the next two years. This is an exciting young core, and Elgin Baylor of all people may have come up with the pieces to make the Clippers the main attraction at Staples for the first time in…well, forever.

Draft Discussion begins tomorrow...

It has been fun to analyze some of these intriguing playoff matchups, and don't expect these types of posts to stop anytime soon. However, anybody who was around for the first contest knows what this blog is about. Check back tomorrow, as we delve deep into the 2006 NBA Draft.

4 Comments | Add a comment   category: NBA
 
The NBA’s Holy Trinity: Game 7’s Reviewed
May 22, 2006 | 4:45PM | report this

Game 1: Detroit 79, Cleveland 61

24 minutes in, it looked like what has turned out to be a classic series would get a fittingly classic ending. Unfortunately for all those hoping to witness some true postseason drama, Detroit had been hiding an entirely different gear the entire series – and waited until the latest possible moment to let it out. We all heard the Flip Saunders chatter during the 3-game Cavalier run, and the radio analyst I happened to be listening to half an hour before tip off even went as far as to say that Detroit just wasn’t that good of a defensive club now that Saunders had replaced Larry Brown. I wonder what he will be saying tomorrow night?

Detroit’s defensive adjustments…

The fact that Detroit’s defensive statistics were down this season meant nothing in the second half of this one, when Tayshaun Prince and several help defenders dogged LeBron James mercilessly. Every time he touched the ball, even before he put it on the floor, the help came. Despite the fact that Detroit was sometimes sending three players at James and the league’s darling is generally recognized as an outstanding passer, the Cavaliers were unable to make Detroit pay for such blatant disregard of the other four players on the floor.

The Pistons help each other out on the defensive end as well as any team I have ever watched, but equally important was Cleveland’s inability to adjust to Detroit’s Lebron-swarming scheme. James repeatedly settled for low-percentage contested jumpers, and his teammates were content to stand around and watch. The Cavaliers aren’t the Phoenix Suns, but one would think they could have gotten Detroit’s D rotating at least somewhat. How about a drive and kick, Lebron? Maybe a post feed to Big Z? Lebron James, the other four players on the floor, and the coaching staff all deserve partial blame here.

The result was a historically ugly half of basketball for Cleveland: 23 points in all, 5-26 from the field, and 1-9 for James.

A Prince Topples a King

It is easy to forget about Tayshaun Prince in Detroit’s balanced lineup. He is probably the 5th biggest name on the team, and he doesn’t put up gaudy stats or hog the spotlight. Nonetheless, Tayshaun Prince has a way of making you regret forgetting about Tayshaun Prince. Chauncey Billups might have the MVP credentials. Ben Wallace might be the scary shot swatter. Rip Hamilton might be the go-too scorer, and Rasheed Wallace might command most of the attention in the papers with his mouth. But make no mistake about it - this win was about Tayshaun Prince.

He should get a medal just for the way he defended LeBron James in the second half, but Prince was doing more. Detroit went to him repeatedly in the second half, exploiting the size advantage he had on Cavalier defenders like Larry Hughes and Flip Murray. He operated in the mid-post with a miraculous comfort level, scooping shots to the basket before help defense could arrive, finding the open man if it did get there in time, and following his own misses if option A or B didn’t work out. As shocking as Detroit’s clamp-down was, it was Prince’s relentlessness on the other end of the court that broke the spirit of the Cavaliers.

Prince doesn’t look like a champion – he’s skinny, somewhat awkward, and probably a bit –slow footed. Nonetheless, he is the type of player that championship teams are built around. He doesn’t need to take shots to impact a game, but he can and will make them when his team requires it of him. His defense and effort will be there every night. There have been numerous moments over the past two postseasons that I have come away in awe of what Prince does, but this is the time that I vow not to forget just how good Tayshaun Prince actually is.

LeBron vs Everybody Else

Of course, the hot topic on everybody's mind at the moment has to be just how far into the stratosphere LeBron's James' status has actually risen. Is he the NBA's premier talent? I don't think there is any doubt about James being the most marketable superstar since MJ. But is he the best player to set foot on an NBA court at this moment? I think this topic is very much up for debate. James has shown the ability to take over basketball games and make clutch plays, both shooting and passing the basketball. At the same time, this 4th quarter failure shows that James is far from invincible just yet. His jumper is still somewhat of a work in progress, and LeBron clearly lost his mental edge down the stretch. I'm not saying Kobe or Duncan or Dirk would have done better in his shoes this postseason but I am going to cop out on this one, and ask for another year before I annoint him as theclear-cut #1 player in the league...

3 Comments | Add a comment   categories: NBA, NBA Playoffs, Detroit Pistons, Cleveland Cavaliers, Tayshaun Prince, LeBron James
 
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JWatters
Jonathan Watters. Lifelong basketball fan, draft fanatic. Interested in all things college hoop, with an emphasis on the NBA Draft.
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