2007 NFL Predictions

+Denotes Home Field Advantage
**Denotes First Round bye
* Denotes Wild Card

AFC
East
New England (13-3)+
New York (9-7)
Buffalo (6-10)
Miami (4-12)

North
Cincinnati (10-6)
Baltimore (10-6)*
Pittsburgh (7-9)
Cleveland (6-10)

South
Indianapolis (11-5) **
Jacksonville (9-7) *
Tennessee (6-10)
Houston (6-10)

West
Denver (10-6)
San Diego (9-7) explanation
Kansas City (7-9)
Oakland (7-9)

NFC
East
Philadelphia (10-6)
Dallas (9-7) *
New York (6-10)
Washington (6-10)

North
Chicago (13-3)**
Detroit (7-9)
Green Bay (7-9)
Minnesota (4-12)

South
New Orleans (13-3) +
Carolina (10-6) *
Tampa Bay (6-10)
Atlanta (5-11)

West
San Fransisco (9-7)
Seattle (9-7)
St. Louis (8-8)
Arizona (7-9)

Playoffs

Wild Card Round
Cincinnatti over Jacksonville
Baltimore over Denver
Carolina over San Fransisco
Philadelphia over Dallas

Divisional Round
Cincinnatti over Indianapolis
New England over Denver
Chicago over Philadelphia
New Orleans over Carolina

Conference Championships
New England over Cincinnatti
New Orleans over Chicago

Super Bowl
New England over New Orleans

Individual Stats
AFC Offensive MVP: Peyton Manning
AFC Defensive MVP: Adalius Thomas
NFC Offensive MVP: Drew Brees
NFC Defensive MVP: Brian Urlacher
Rookie of the Year: Calvin Johnson
Coach of the Year: Sean Payton
Declining Player (the long time good player who finally starts to show his age): Zach Thomas
Best off-season pickup: Randy Moss, Patriots
Worst off-season pickup: Norv Turner, Chargers
Rising Star: Reggie Bush

Most Passing Yards: Drew Brees
Most Rushing Yards: LaDanian Tomlinson
Most Recieving Yards: Torry Holt
Most Sacks: Shawne Merriman

Check out my 2006 predictions. I didn't do too bad!

Arizona Cardinals
Edgerrin James: bust?
Must improve last year’s numbers.
Great passing game helps.

Buffalo Bills
Draft blunder: ’03. 
Passed on L.J., took Willis. 
McGahee, no more!

Carolina Panthers 
Steve Smith is healthy. 
Look out NFC.  Panthers 
may challenge again!

Chicago Bears 
What else is new, here? 
Always injured, like Cubs’ Wood. 
Ah, poor, poor Mike Brown. 

Cincinnati Bengals 
Bengals boom back, ’07. 
Just, please, stay out of trouble. 
Jail.  Sick and tired. 

Cleveland Browns 
Feel sorry for Browns. 
Draft picks either bust, or hurt selves. 
Change this, Joe Thomas. 

Dallas Cowboys 
Tuna: “Get me out!” 
He leaves and T.O. still stays. 
Total injustice. 

Denver Broncos 
Offseason was strange. 
At least, compared to years past. 
Did not trade RB. 

Detroit Lions 
Oh my god!  No way! 
Did not foresee it this year. 
Another wideout? 

Green Bay Packers 
Favre coming back?  Wow. 
He will never retire. 
Just like J. Franco 

Houston Texans 
Gave up too much.  Schaubb? 
This Matt guy is a stinker. 
A bust he will be. 

Indianapolis Colts 
Was lucky last year. 
Run defense was hideous. 
Playoffs, but no ring. 

Jacksonville Jaguars 
Who was that RB? 
Had some kind of crazy year? 
Jones-Drew is damn good. 

Kansas City Chiefs 
Green: No confidence.  
As in, it’s a ####’s shoot call.  
Croyle: Ready or not? 

Miami Dolphins 
Ginn?  Certainly reached. 
It’s ok though.  Brady Quinn 
not worthy either. 

Minnesota Vikings 
A good back is here. 
But, Peterson ain’t Sweetness. 
Don’t count chickens, yet. 

New England Patriots
Picked up Moss, Thomas. 
Best available players, 
Offense and defense. 

New Orleans Saints 
Now, attention please! 
I will make one prediction. 
Saints in Super Bowl. 

New York Giants
One thing perturbs me. 
Strahan quits day before camp. 
Team cannot replace. 

New York Jets 
Jets overachieved. 
Will not taste postseason play. 
Unless, buys ticket. 

Oakland Raiders 
Poor, poor Culpepper. 
First gets cut by Miami. 
Now, plays in Oakland. 

Philadelphia Eagles 
Philly did nothing. 
Sat on hands, offseason.  What the….? 
Should have fixed problems. 

Pittsburgh Steelers 
Lost best coach ever? 
Not sure about that.  Cowher 
was a good one, though. 

San Diego Chargers 
Dumb.  I laugh out loud! 
Perhaps Marty should have gone. 
But Turner is worse. 

Seattle Seahawks 
3.6.  Not good. 
Alexander will improve 
yards per carry stat. 

San Francisco 49ers 
I must be crazy. 
What I will say, may shock you. 
Niners win the West. 

St. Louis Rams 
High octane offense. 
But, getting much older now. 
Is Jackson enough? 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
The Cadillac crashed! 
What the heck happened to him? 
Don’t worry, he’s back! 

Tennessee Titans 
Titans fans, hear me! 
Let’s all say this together: 
Hit the road, Pacman! 

Washington Redskins
Campbell:  I’m not sure. 
Only one thing’s for certain: 
Secondary rocks! 

NFL GMs say it takes five years before you can fully evaluate success or failure in the college draft.  Five years later, let’s take a look at what the first round circa 2002 might have looked like if the GMs had known then what they know now.  Time to ponder the possibilities…

1)      Houston Texans

Actual Pick:  David Carr, QB, Fresno State
Should have taken:  Ed Reed, SS, Miami (Round 1, pick 24, Ravens)
Analysis:  Reed is arguably the most dominant defensive player in the NFL today and Carr never panned out in Houston.  Had an offensive tackle been worthy of the #1 pick Houston would have taken him instead.

2)      Carolina Panthers
Actual Pick:  Julius Peppers, DE, North Carolina
Should have taken:  Julius Peppers, DE, North Carolina (Round 1, pick 2, Panthers)
Analysis:  Peppers played a large role in the Super Bowl run the following season and I don’t think Carolina regrets this pick one bit, despite better players being available.

3)      Detroit Lions
Actual Pick:  Joey Harrington, QB, Oregon
Should have taken:  Clinton Portis, RB, Miami (Round 2, pick 51, Broncos)Analysis:  Portis is exactly what Detroit needed, even though their leading rusher the previous season, James Stewart, averaged 4.8 yards per carry.  In a year when Patrick Ramsey was the most notable QB taken, it would be wise to pass on a passer rather than stretch for one.


The Lions would get a longterm solution to RB just a few years after Barry Sanders' retirement

4)      Buffalo Bills

Actual Pick:  Mike Williams, T, Texas
Should have taken:  Roy Williams, DB, Oklahoma (Round 1, pick 8, Cowboys)Analysis:  Along with QB, OT and OG were also very weak in this year’s draft.  Williams was probably the third best player taken this draft, so he’s a steal at pick 4.

5)      San Diego Chargers

Actual Pick:  Quentin Jammer, DB, Texas
Should have taken:  Dwight Freeney, DE, Syracuse (Round 1, pick 11, Colts)Analysis:  Just imagine Freeney and Shawne Merriman on the same team!  To get Freeney at pick 5 would have been an extraordinary stroke of fortune.

6)      Kansas City Chiefs

Actual Pick:  Ryan Sims, DT, North Carolina   
Should have taken:  Javon Walker, WR, Florida State (Round 1, pick 20, Packers)
Analysis:  The Chiefs have had many troubles drafting wideouts the last several seasons, including a bust in Sylvester Morris in 2000.  Even though they really needed defensive help, there wasn’t a great defensive player available unless they wanted to trade down for Lito Sheppard or John Henderson.

7)      Minnesota Vikings

Actual Pick:  Bryant McKinnie, T, Miami  
Should have taken:  Deion Branch, WR, Louisville (Round 2, pick 65, Patriots) 
Analysis:  The Vikings had the best wideout in the game in Randy Moss and a fading Hall of Famer in Cris Carter.  Throwing Branch, who wouldn’t come into his own until a few years later, would have replaced Moss right at the right time.

8)      Dallas Cowboys

Actual Pick:  Roy Williams, DB, Oklahoma 
Should have taken:  Brian Westbrook, RB, Villanova (Round 3, pick 91, Eagles) 
Analysis:  Dallas would have been more than happy to take Williams here, but he was already drafted #4 by Buffalo (a sign that the Cowboys did well when he slipped to #8).  Westbrook would fill a need at RB while also depriving arch rival Philly of their most potent offensive weapon.


The Eagles sure are happy that Dallas wasn't smart enough to take Westbrook 8th overall

9)      Jacksonville Jaguars

Actual Pick:  John Henderson, DT, Tennessee 
Should have taken:  John Henderson, DT, Tennessee (Round 1, pick 9, Jaguars)Analysis:  No need to take this pick back.  Henderson has been consistent and durable, playing all 16 games in every season since his rookie campaign, and making a Pro-Bowl appearance in 2004.

10)  Cincinnati Bengals 
Actual Pick:  Levi Jones, T, Arizona State 
Should have taken:  Bryant McKinnie,  T, Miami (Round 1, pick 7, Vikings) 
Analysis:  If an OT is what the Bengals really wanted, then McKinnie was the best one available this year.  

11)  Indianapolis Colts

Actual Pick:  Dwight Freeney, DE, Syracuse 
Should have taken:  Jeremy Shockey, TE, Miami (Round 1, pick 14, Giants)Analysis:  Adding Shockey to a receiving corps of Marvin Harrison, and the next year, Reggie Wayne, would have made for one ridiculously good downfield passing game…. Not that it really needed that much improvement.

12)  Arizona Cardinals

Actual Pick:  Wendell Bryant, DT, Wisconsin   
Should have taken:  Charles Grant, DE, Georgia (Round 1, pick 25, Saints) 

Analysis:  The fact that Grant should have been drafted 12th overall is telling of how weak the 2002 draft really was.  But Grant has been durable, playing all 16 games in every pro season, while also inconsistent, albeit producing back-to-back double digit sack seasons in 2003-04.

13)  New Orleans Saints

Actual Pick:  Donte Stallworth, WR, Tennessee  

Should have taken:  Lito Sheppard, CB, Florida (Round 1, pick 26, Eagles) 

Analysis:  Stallworth has been a serviceable NFL player, but Sheppard would have provided Pro-Bowl caliber play at the CB position for several seasons to come.

14)  New York Giants

Actual Pick:  Jeremy Shockey, TE, Miami 

Should have taken:  Daniel Graham, TE, Colorado (Round 1, pick 21, Patriots) 

Analysis:  With Shockey already going at pick number 10 to the Colts, the Giants needed a TE.  Graham would provide a good threat and, would cost less money in the longrun, and wouldn’t criticize coaches or quarterbacks.

15)  Tennessee Titans

Actual Pick:  Albert Haynesworth, DT, Tennessee 

Should have taken:  Albert Haynesworth, DT, Tennessee (Round 1, pick 15, Titans) 

Analysis:  Tennessee becomes the third team who cannot regret their pick.  The hometown fan-favorite, Haynesworth will still be starting 5 seasons later and playing at an above average level.

16)  Cleveland Browns

Actual Pick:  William Green, RB, Boston College   

Should have taken:  DeShaun Foster, RB, UCLA (Round 2, pick 34, Panthers) 

Analysis:  Taking Foster this high would be a bit of a stretch, but at this point, he’s the best RB available and who knows?  Maybe if he was drafted by Cleveland he would have been able to stay relatively healthier.

17)  Oakland Raiders 

Actual Pick:  Phillip Buchanon, CB, Miami 

Should have taken:  Quentin Jammer, CB, Texas (Round 1, pick 5, Chargers)

Analysis:  With Lito Sheppard off the board at this point, Jammer becomes the next best option.  He would provide more stability at the position compared to Buchanon, and with a name like “Jammer” he was born to play the corner!

18)  Atlanta Falcons

Actual Pick:  T.J. Duckett, RB, Michigan State 

Should have taken:  Antwaan Randle El, WR, Indiana (Round 2, pick 62, Steelers)

Analysis:  The Falcons inability to draft a WR in the first round is duly noted, but Randle El would have made their draft.  He’s basically a clone of Mike Vick and the two of them together could have formed quite a powerful duo.


Vick and Randle El possess similar abilities.  On the field at the same time, they could be dangerous

19)  Denver Broncos

Actual Pick:  Ashley Lelie, WR, Hawaii   

Should have taken:  Alex Brown, DE, Florida (Round 4, pick 104, Bears)

Analysis:  Lelie was tremendously inconsistent during his tenure with Denver, but Brown would provide several years of durability and sack production.

20)  Green Bay Packers

Actual Pick:  Javon Walker, WR, Florida State 

Should have taken:  Ashley Lelie, WR, Hawaii   (Round 1, pick 19, Broncos)

Analysis:  Lelie would obviously not quite live up to Javon Walker expectations, but with Walker already gone to Kansas City at pick #6, Lelie is the best available WR at pick 20.

21)  New England Patriots

Actual Pick:  Daniel Graham, TE, Colorado 

Should have taken:  Napoleon Harris, LB, Northwestern (Round 1, pick 23, Raiders)

Analysis:  The Patriots would miss Graham’s presence on the offense, but replacing him with Harris’ versatility alongside Tedi Bruschi in the 3-4 scheme would make their defense that much stronger.

22)  New York Jets

Actual Pick:  Bryan Thomas, DE, Alabama-Birmingham   

Should have taken:  Larry Foote, LB, Michigan (Round 4, pick 128, Steelers)

Analysis:  This is a risky pick since I believe Foote has been a product of the system in Pittsburgh (much like Kendrell Bell).  But seriously, what has Bryan Thomas done lately?

23)  Oakland Raiders

Actual Pick:  Napoleon Harris,LB, Northwestern 

Should have taken:  Josh Reed, WR, Louisiana State (Round 2, pick 36, Bills)

Analysis:   Reed is simply the best player available at this point in the first round.  Seeing as how the Raiders would later trade Harris for Randy Moss, it is difficult to gauge whether or not they would actually take him, however.

24)  Baltimore Ravens

Actual Pick:  Ed Reed, DB, Miami 

Should have taken:  Brian Williams, DB, North Carolina State (Round 4, pick 105, Vikings)

Analysis:   The Ravens were this year’s biggest winner, snagging Reed, but after he goes number one overall to the Texans, they are now the biggest losers, having instead to settle for Williams who is a steady tackler.


Baltimore becomes the draft's biggest loser because defensive MVP Ed Reed was stolen with the #1 overall pick

25)  New Orleans Saints

Actual Pick:  Charles Grant, DE, Georgia   

Should have taken:  Larry Tripplett, DT, Washington (Round 2, pick 42, Colts)

Analysis:   The Saints already made out big time when they got Lito Sheppard at pick # 13, so they shouldn’t be too upset when they lose Grant and replace him with Tripplett.  Neither player is really worthy of first round money anyway.

26) Philadelphia Eagles 

Actual Pick:  Lito Sheppard, DB, Florida   

Should have taken:  Najeh Davenport, RB, Miami (Round 4, pick 135, Packers)

Analysis:  Since both Sheppard (pick 13 to the Saints) and Brian Westbrook (pick 8 to the Cowboys) have already been robbed from the Eagles in this draft, they must take the best available player.  Davenport, a reliable and productive backup, must step outside his comfort zone and into the starting lineup for the Eagles.

26)  San Francisco 49ers 

Actual Pick:  Mike Rumph, DB, Miami 

Should have taken:  David Carr, QB, Fresno State (Round 1, pick 1, Texans)

Analysis:  Carr’s career could very well have been different had he been in a system conducive to his strengths.  I can’t go so far as to say that the 49ers would have worked out better for him, but I think San Fran would be willing to take its chances at this point.

27)  Seattle Seahawks

Actual Pick:  Jerramy Stevens, TE. Washington 

Should have taken:  Randy McMichael, TE, Georgia (Round 4, pick 114, Dolphins)

Analysis:  The cowardly Stevens has been all talk since day 1 in Seattle.  McMichael’s statistics are just as good for his career, but come without all the extraneous distractions.

28)  Chicago Bears

Actual Pick:  Marc Colombo, OT, Boston College

Should have taken:  David Garrard, QB, East Carolina (Round 4, pick 108, Jaguars)

Analysis:  The Bears would have liked if David Carr could have slipped just two more picks because their offensive line would have provided the immense increase in pass protection that Carr needed.  Garrard, in the worst case, provides a stopgap until Rex Grossman arrives a few years later.


With Garrard on the Bears, things may have been different in Chicago

29)  Pittsburgh Steelers

Actual Pick:  Kendall Simmons, OG, Auburn   

Should have taken:  Kendall Simmons, OG, Auburn (Round 1, pick 29, Steelers)

Analysis:  Simmons has been a good starter for the Steelers, although he has battled some injuries.  I don’t think they would change their pick if given the chance.

30)  St. Louis Rams

Actual Pick:  Robert Thomas, LB, UCLA   

Should have taken:  Andra Davis, LB, Florida (Round 5, pick 141, Browns)

Analysis:  Davis makes the biggest jump in the entire draft, moving up 111 spots into the first round.  He isn’t going to cover the best or accumulate dozens of sacks, but one thing he does do well is stop the run, and the Rams could really use that over the next few seasons.

31)  Washington Redskins

Actual Pick:  Patrick Ramsey, QB, Tulane  

Should have taken:  Andre Gurode, OG, Colorado (Round 2, pick 37, Cowboys) 

Analysis:  Ramsey, sadly, probably would have been better off had he been selected by a better team (much like David Carr).  Gurode would provide a steady run blocking force in the middle of the line and the versatility to play both guard an center.

Pick any two pro football teams and hypothetically pit them against one another in Sunday’s Super Bowl and you could easily make a case for either team that the key to victory is pressuring the quarterback.  This week, while reading through all the previews, listening to experts debate the game, and talking about Super Bowl XLI with my friends, I keep hearing that the key to winning (for either team) is pressuring the opposing quarterback.

It’s about time somebody come up with something a little bit cleverer than that.  Told from a Bear’s perspective, here we go.


"The Bears must pressure Manning,"  Yeah, yeah, I've ridden that bus before, bub.

The Chicago Bears will need to pressure Peyton Manning—yes indeed—and they would prefer to get that pressure without being forced to blitz.  The Indianapolis Colts led the NFL in passer rating facing a blitz this season, so it might be wise for Chicago to drop seven into coverage most of the game.  Since they employ a defense sparse in blitzing plays anyway, this should not be a problem.

The Colts have an amazing knack for converting third downs.  The vaunted New England  Patriot defense allowed their offense to convert on 53% of the third downs during the AFC Championship game.  In the Wild Card round, the Colts converted on a 3rd-and-16 and a 3rd-and-18.  Both of these came early in the game when the Kansas City Chiefs still had a chance and their defense was playing spectacularly (with the exception of the third down plays, of course).  For the Bears to come close, they’ll need to see more Hunter Smith and less of the moving chain gang.  The magic number is 35%; if the Colts hit less than that, they have no chance at winning.

The Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Patriots (the three teams Indianapolis has defeated to get this far) all entered their games with a simple game plan: run the football against the NFL’s worst rushing defense and the 7th worst in NFL history.  Larry Johnson and Jamal Lewis could muster nary a yard against the Colts, while the Pats had early success and then got away from it, deciding instead to put the game in Tom Brady’s immaculate hands.  Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson will both need to have big games Sunday.  And if they struggle early, offensive coordinator Ron Turner and head coach Lovie Smith will need to stick with it, so as to further make Rex Grossman’s play action passes more sellable.  Grossman, contrary to popular belief, has a fantastic downfield throwing arm and so long as he has the time, and the defense is expecting a run, he can make big plays deep down the field, even with a mediocre receiving corps.

Speaking of mediocre receiving corps, Mushin Muhammad has to show up.  The so-called “big playmaker” has been a non-factor in the playoffs.  With a couple of drops in the last two games, Muhammad is due for a decent game.  If he can catch at least five balls, look out!

The Bears cornerbacks, Nathan Vasher and the underrated Charles Tillman must keep explosive wideouts Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne in front of them whenever possible.  Playing the cover 2 defense, this will not be an easy task, and at times it will be impossible or unnecessary.  The important thing is to make them catch the ball in traffic and wrap them up quickly, limiting the yards after the catch.  Chicago cannot allow Manning to find wide open receivers for big chunks of yards.  Instead, they must make him force the ball into coverage, throw it away, or settle for short gains.


You don't know who this man is?  He could be the MVP of Super Bowl XLI.

And finally, it seems often in the Super Bowl that the winning team will get a heroic effort from an unsung player; a guy who has been a starter but is not talked about as one of the “keys to victory,” and who goes on to have a career day.  For the Bears to win this game, they must get such an effort from one of their role players.  Nobody questions that stars like Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs and Olin Kruetz are going to play well.  Who’s going to be the Bear’s unsung hero?  Look for Hunter Hillenmeyer, Ian Scott, or Rashied Davis to win the MVP award.