Make the Correct Calls, Or Else Ditch Replay Last week at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, a Colts kick returner fumbled while apparently tripping over an invisible line. The referees ruled the player down by contact, but the Chicago Bears challenged that the player was not down by contact, and that they recovered the fumble. After review, it was painfully obvious that the Colts runner was not touched and fumbled in mid-air. The call stood as called due to, apparently, the ref's being unable to determine who recovered the football, even though Bear's running back Garrett Wolfe emerged from the pile with the ball in hand. Yesterday during the Broncos-Chargers game (in which Broncos coach boldly--and successfully--went for a 2-point conversion down by 1 point with 0:24 remaining), Broncos QB Jay Cutler clearly fumbled a ball that was originally called an incomplete pass, and the Chargers recovered the would-be fumble. After the booth review, since it was inside the 2-minute warning, the call was not overturned. Don't ask me how the Broncos ended up with possession 8 yards back from the previous play because I don't have the slightest clue how that can be possible if the pass was incomplete. A correct call on that play and the Chargers are in first place this week rather than Denver. The point is: If the NFL and its referees cannot overturn a slam dunk replay, the ditch the replay rule all together. It is indeed only slowing down the game and wasting time if they can't overturn the most obvious of mistakes.
Only Fourteen Games to go, Chiefs Fans The Kansas City Chiefs have started out 0-2, and with the way they've played, I see no reason to believe things are going to get any better. During these two miserable games, they've allowed 9 sacks while achieving only 2, can't run the football, can't stop the run, and their asinine, convservative playbook is producing only 9.0 points per game. These are al the same problems that plagued them last year, en route to a 4-12 season, a 31st ranked offense, and a current 11-game regular season losing streak. Yesterday, an apparently healthy QB Damon Huard, who was recently ranked by foxsports.com as the 6th best backup QB in the entire NFL, and who was starting this game due to an injury to opening day starter Brodie Croyle, was pulled from the starting lineup in lieu of a practice squad WR Marques Hagans. Hagans was replaced by 3rd stringer Tyler Thigpen after one play, a QB draw. Hagans was inserted later in the game, for a 2nd down and 17 to go, a play in which he also ran a QB draw. Thigpen rarely attempted a throw longer than 10 yards, as evidenced by his atrocious 4.57 yards per attempt. With any luck, the Chiefs will lose the next 14 games, and by finishing 0-16, the Hunt family will have no choice but to fire GM Carl Peterson, HC Herm Edwards, and every single one of Edward's awful assistants. The worst thing that can happen to a Chiefs fan at this point is for the team to come back and finish with a respectable record, thus buying Peterson and Edwards more time to further screw up the team.
Patriots Win, But Skeptisicm Remains. I watched most of the Pats-Jets game yesterday and picked the Jets in my weekly Pro Football Pick'em on fantasysports.yahoo.com. Though the Patriots won without the best player in the NFL, QB Tom Brady, I'm planning on staying as far away from them in picks for the next couple weeks. I need to see the team play more games minus Brady before I can conclusively say that they are still a serious contender. After the Brady injury, I predicted they could do no better than 10 wins, more likely, 8. Brady makes that big of a difference. Will I pick them this week at home to beat the 0-2 Miami Dolphins? Yes. But I'm not all that confident about it, and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see the 'Fins pull the upset. I'm also in a Survivor Pool on Yahoo, and there is no way I am circling New England this week. Instead, I'll look at Buffalo at home against Oakland, Chicago at home against Tampa, or Denver at home against New Orleans.
Bears Should Keep Benson Count me in the minority of Bears fans who think that they should not release RB Cedric Benson, even in spite of his most recent run-in with the law. The Bears drafted the back whom they obviously believe will carry the bulk of the load in Matt Forte from Tulane. First, I don't think it's ever a good idea to hand a starting job to a rookie unless the team is in full-blown rebuilding mode, and the Bears think they can compete in the NFC North, especially with the retirement of a certain quarterback famous for a number '4' on his jersey. It is quite obvious at this time that Benson will never pan out to be the back the Bears thought he would be when they drafted him fourth overall in 2005, but that doesn't mean he can't be productive. Benson had a couple of halfway decent seasons as a backup to Thomas Jones before taking the starting reigns last season. He's also the best available insurance policy in case Forte gets hurt or dissapoints.
Announcers have duty to disclose the No-Hitter I was driving home late last night listening to the White Sox-Twins radio broadcast on Chicago's WSCR 670 AM on Tuesday. Late in the game, the Sox had a significant lead, but the Twins, I knew, had one run on the board. The White Sox radio team of Ed Farmer and Steve Stone, declined to announce over the waves that Sox starting pitcher Gavin Floyd had yet to yield a hit to Minnesota. As a White Sox fan, I sure would have appreciated the knowledge of history possibly in the making. I definitely would have listened more intently, as my mind often wonders while listening to baseball games on the radio. Farmer, the play-by-play man, instead said "One run and two errors for the Twins," instead of blurting out "Gavin Floyd has a no-hitter." It never dawned on me, until Justin Morneau doubled to left center field and Farmer finally came clean, that the White Sox had come this close to one of baseball's remarkable feats. While other players should not mess around with their teammate's head by making him aware of the situation, it is the announcer's job to tell the whole story, and Floyd's possible no-no was a big part of the picture.
Chiefs' fans don't expect to win Don't worry, I'm not going to beat a dead horse. This isn't going to be a rant on how much I hate Carl Peterson, or Herm Edwards. This is actually to point out that fans of the Kansas City Chiefs have grown content with losing. In recent blogs (in which I have lambasted Chief's management and called for their heads on sticks outside Arrowhead Stadium) other Chiefs' fans have accused me of over-reacting (among many other things). One Chiefs' fan commented that "13 [draft] picks this year and [next year's draft] should give [the Chiefs] a chance to compete for the AFC West title in 2010." Another posted "Even if they do finish 8-8, I will know that they are on there [sic] to greatness the following year." There was also talk of "getting ready for a championship run," and one guy even said "I don't mind being a .500 team as long as we beat the few teams we need to (you know, division rivals)." Chiefs' fans are pathetic in this manner. They are ok with rebuilding, and then two or three years later making a run at winning the division. They are ok with finishing .500 as long as they beat the stupid Raiders. Frankly, they are ok with mediocrity. Quite simply, any sports fan content with mediocrity for any reason is a loser. Sports isn't about competing for the division, beating your division rivals, or making a run at a championship. Sports are about winning the championship. If that doesn't happen, the season was a failure, but fans of the Chiefs often seem to overlook the biggest, most important part of sports.
Now that the dust as all but settled on the Jared Allen trade, and I have had time to evaluate what has recently taken place with Kansas City Chief offseason events, I have a few thoughts on the upcoming season and what I would do if I were the the GM in Kansas City (Oh, how I love to pretend I run my own NFL team).
Allen led the NFL in sacks last year, despite playing in only 14 games.
As a Chiefs fan, I'm quite obviously upset, and my initial reaction was that of fury. But then, I was able to read further into the details of the trade, and I realized a few things: 1) Getting a first and two third round picks for a franchise player isn't all that bad of a deal. 2) There was no way Allen was ever going to sign a long-term contract with Kansas City (and could you blame him?), and they would have lost him for nothing at the end of the season. 3) The Vikings completely overpaid for Allen financially.
I wrote in December that the Chief's top offseason priority should have been to sign Jared Allen to a longterm contract. At the time, the figure I had in mind was around 5 years and $55 million. He ended up signing a contract getting in excess of $70 million for 6 years, which reportedly includes $31 million in guaranteed money.
Allen is easily one of the top three DEs in the NFL, but he's not quite worth that much dough.
Just because I have come to the realization that Allen and the Chiefs were just not a match made to work out, doesn't mean I'm happy about the trade, however (Likewise, even though pulling the plug on Grandma's life support is the right thing to do, that doesn't mean I'm going out to the bars to celebrate).
I'm happy for Allen, who becomes rich beyond my wildest dreams. And I'm happy for the Vikings, who now own the NFL's best pass rushing end and best overall defensive front four. But I'm upset as a Chiefs fan, primarily because I know the Chiefs have absolutely no chance to make the playoffs next year, and most likely will not sniff .500 for several years to come.
If the Chiefs were serious about trying to win this upcoming season, they might have followed a plan similar to what I outlined in my December writing (link above). But it appears that they will not come close to achieving any of my goals.
I could much more easily come to accept this trade if Tamba Hali, the other starter at DE for Kansas City, were almost as good as Allen, and if they had a third DE about as good as Hali. As of now, the Chiefs have nobody capable of applying consistent pressure on the passer, which weakens their entire defense. The Chiefs likely figure to draft a DE in the first round, and if that player is drafted fifth overall as speculation has, the Chiefs will have to pay him about $20 guaranteed (last year's fifth pick got $18.1 million). I don't often make guarantees, but I will guarantee that neither Chris Long nor Vernon Gholston will be anywhere near as good a player as Jared Allen, a DE who comes around once every 8-10 years. Which tells me that either Long or Gholston would be paid about two-thirds the amount Allen would get for about a quarter of the production.
Another thing to take into consideration is the opportunity cost of drafting a DE with that 5th pick. As terrible as the offense was last year, I was desperately hoping for that pick to help the offensive side of the ball. Now they have a big void to fill at their rush end position.
The Chiefs do have gaps all over the place, but their one major malfunction, as I have written about so much recently, is that their GM, Carl Peterson, has an awful track record of drafting, especially recently. Over the past 8 NFL drafts (dating back to 2000), he has drafted only three Pro Bowl players. Two of them are no longer with the team (Dante Hall and Allen) and the third will probably never be the same due to overwork and injury (Larry Johnson). Peterson had his run in the early 90's but the game has changed and his way is outdated. I don't trust the Chiefs to draft a quarterback because that player is doomed to failure due to the fact that coach Herm Edwards runs an offense not conducive for a young QB to learn and develop (far too conservative). The Chiefs need a front five to protect whomever their QB is next year, but a Peterson drafted offensive linemen has not made the Pro Bowl in a Chief's uniform since.... Will Shields, picked in 1993. In the Peterson ERA (going back to 1988!), the Chiefs have yet to draft a Pro Bowl QB, WR, OT, or DT. The last Safety to go to a Pro Bowl was Jerome Woods (selected 1996), the last CB was Dale Carter (1992), and the last LB was Derrick Thomas (1989). So yes, Kansas City has 13 draft choices in 2008 and will need every last one of them to fill the myriad of holes on both sides of the ball. But I have ZERO confidence in Peteron's ability to adequately fill those holes given his recent failures in the draft. Alex Marvez recently rated the Chiefs number 21 out of 32 NFL teams in best drafts over the last five years.
There are a few players left on this team that I still like and will root for, but I find myself feeling sorry for them. Which is why I am sad to admit that I hope the Chiefs will attempt to trade Tony Gonzalez, Donnie Edwards, Patrick Surtain, and Johnson to contending teams. It kills me that Gonzalez, who in my opinion is the best TE in NFL history, gets knocked on by fans of other teams because he has never even won a playoff game, let alone a Super Bowl.
I am also sad to admit that I am hoping that the Chiefs go 0-16 in 2008. It has nothing to do with wanting a top draft choice (remember, I don't believe Peterson is adequate enough to successfully draft a Pro Bowl player in any round). It's because I think that might be the only way the Hunt family ever gathers enough stones to send Carl Peterson and Herm Edwards to the unemployment line. Edwards is a good defensive coach but he has ruined the once proud Chief's offense. The year before Edwards got to Kansas City, they had the #2 offense in the NFL and finished with a 10-6 record. In his first season they won 9 games, and last year they went 4-12, lost 9 games in a row, and had the 31st ranked offense. Hali and Derrick Johnson are much ballywhoed starters recently drafted by Peterson, but they have combined to make 0 Pro Bowls and Edwards has failed to develop them. I expect more from first round picks. Being a "good player" isn't good enough for me. Johnson was the 15th pick in the draft. I expect that by his third season he'd be one of the top OLBs in the NFL by now. He's not.
The worst thing that could happen to the Chiefs is that they rebound next year and finish 8-8. That gives the Hunt's a false sense of security seeing that they have improved. Peterson and Edwards absolutely must go. The Kansas City Chiefs will never win a Super Bowl under their leadership.
And isn't that what this league is about? Winning the Super Bowl? It's high time for the city of Kansas City to wake up and stop being content with "being a contender," "showing improvement," "making the playoffs," and being "a team on the rise." I don't care if they win the division. And I'm not happy with settling for an AFC Championship appearance. I want a Super Bowl win, and this trade of Allen sets the team back a few more years.
I was out in Las Vegas over the weekend and took notice of the favorites to win the Super Bowl next year. Your Kansas City Chiefs, at 225-1 odds, are tied with the Falcons for the worst odds to win the Championship.
I'm not the least bit surprised. They don't have a clue. GM Carl Peterson, he of the two playoff wins in 20 years as the President of the team, doesn't believe in signing free agents, so he's let talented players such as Bernard Berrian, and Alan Faneca, two players I was desperately hoping the Chiefs would take a look at, sign elsewhere. Instead Peterson has opted to bring in two free agents I've never heard of: WR Devard Darling, and LB Demorrio Williams. Peterson's strategy of relying heavily on the draft (much like the Pittsburgh Steelers) to replenish talent is not entirely bad in and of itself. Except that Peterson can't draft! Since 2000 (8 total NFL drafts), Peterson has drafted three Pro Bowlers (Dante Hall, Larry Johnson, and Jared Allen). Over that time, Pittsburgh has draftd six Pro Bowlers but three more are worthy.
The Chiefs have the second lowest payroll in the NFL, about $45 million less than what New England spent last year. They've just recently released high salaried players Ty Law ($5 million), and Eddie Kennison ($2.1 million), and a host of other players (Kendrell Bell, Eddie Drummond, Greg Wesley, and Samie Parker), players whose salries total in excess of $10 million, don't figure to be back. There's no reason Kansas City couldn't have been a bigger player in the Faneca sweepstakes. I've heard nothing about the Chiefs' interest in Derek Anderson or Donovan McNabb either.
The biggest problem with Peterson's philosophy is his goal at the beginning of every season. As we learned on HBO's Hard Knocks last year, Peterson addresses his subordinates each training camp stating that the team's goal is "to win the trophy bearing our founder's name." Of course, that trophy would be that of Lamar Hunt, which goes to the team that wins the AFC each year. I wonder if Peterson realizes that by winning the Lombardi trophy he'll have automatically addressed all other trophies coming before it. If your goal isn't to win the Super Bowl, it's never going to happen.
When the Chiefs finish the 2008 season at 4-12 again, it'll be high time for Chiefs fans to see Peterson's head on a stick outside Arrowhead Stadium. While we're there, might as well bring Herm Edwards with him.
As any fan of any team does this time of the year when their
team is all but eliminated from the playoff chase, I am posturing what the
Kansas City Chiefs could do to improve their team for the 2008 season. Here are the moves I would make if I were in
charge, and also my estimated probability of the actual Chief’s GM, Carl Peterson, making those moves.
Top Priority: Put the Franchise Tag on Jared Allen and sign him to a 5-year contract if possible. Reason: Allen has proven in
his four seasons that he’s one of the elite pass rushers in the NFL and with
him in the lineup, the Chiefs are able to put pressure on the opposing
quarterback while only rushing four men.
Allen’s 11.5 sacks leads the AFC despite his missing the first two regular
season games while serving a suspension. Estimated Probability: 93%
of the Franchise Tag, 40% of getting the long-term contract.
Allen is deserving of a huge free agent contract this year.
Next Priority: Sign unrestricted free agent OG Alan Faneca to a 5-year contract. Reason: The Chiefs
are in desperate need of offensive linemen and wide receivers, and even though
their line was still above average last year after the retirement of Willie Roaf, they are terrible this
year after losing Will Shields. Beefing up their interior line would go a
long way towards putting them back in contention. They could move Brian Waters over to RG and keep Faneca at his customary LG. The Chiefs need to add a guard and two
tackles this off season. Estimated Probability:
Signing high priced free agents to long term contracts is not Peterson’s
style. The last time I can remember it
happening was when he signed Chester
McGlockton to a 6-year, $36 million contract about 10 years ago. That being the case, 5%.
Next Priority: Release every single wide receiver on the
team except for Dwayne Bowe Reason: With the exception of Bowe, this group has to be
considered one of the worst receiving corps in recent NFL history. Samie
Parker hardly deserves to be on a team’s practice squad, and Eddie Kennison, at age 34, could not
successfully return to form after suffering a lower leg injury on the season’s
very first play. I have very little
faith in any of the other role players such as Jeff Webb and Bobby Sippio. Estimated Probability:
Considering this is a drastic change and these sorts of things rarely
happen in real life, 1%. The chances of
Parker and Kennison both being gone, however, 70%.
Next Priority: Sign
WR Justin Gage as a free agent. Reason: Gage would be
a decent compliment to Bowe for the time being or would be one of the better
third receivers in the NFL if the Chiefs were lucky enough to draft somebody
better than him in April. After 4 less
than spectacular seasons with the Bears, Gage has emerged as the Titans’
leading receiver this year. Estimated Probability:
Given that the Titans will likely make a valiant effort to keep Gage in Tennessee
and that the other available wideouts will be too expensive and likely
franchised (Randy Moss and Bernard Berrian), I’ll give it only
20%.
Next Priority: Draft
only offensive linemen and wide receivers with the first 3 picks in the draft,
and draft 3 of eachoverall. Reason: As mentioned
earlier, they are desperate for these two positions. It doesn’t matter if they go OT, OG, WR; or
WR, WR, OG;, or OT, WR, OT, or any other combination of those. Also,
if the Chiefs can’t land at least one starting linemen and one starting WR in
free agency before the draft, this act then moves all the way up to number 2 of
on the priority list. Estimated Probability:
Given that Peterson is stubborn and that coach Herm Edwards will be stupid enough to ask for at least one
defensive player (probably in round 2), I’ll give this one only 8%.
Edwards simply did not follow through on a promise he made after accepting the Chief's job.
Next Priority: Make
this the make or break season for the head coach. Reason: Edwards inherited a team that averaged close to 30
points per game and had the best offense in the NFL over the previous 4
seasons. Yes, they were statistically
better than the Colts in both points and yards.
In his first press conference as the new coach he stated he liked having
a powerful offense and wouldn’t make any changes. First order of business? Getting rid of the coordinator (Al Saunders) and installing one of his
own guys who would run his conservative style offense. The Chiefs now have the lowest scoring
offense in the AFC and second worst offense overall. He barely snuck into the playoffs last year
at 9-7 and he’s likely going to finish 5-11 this year. His leash should be very short heading into
year 3. Estimated Probability:
If the Chiefs finish over .500 next year his job is safe. If they fail to make the playoffs in 2008 or
finish under .500, the chances of him getting fired are still only 15%.
Next Priority: Make
inquiries to the Eagles on trading for Donovan
McNabb and also an inquiry to the agent representing Derek Anderson. Reason: Plain and
simple, the long term answer at quarterback is not currently on the Chief’s
roster. Damon Huard is a lifelong backup, and Brodie Croyle, from what I’ve seen, is good enough to get them
through the next two or three years until they can find somebody better, but
he’s not good enough, nor will he be, to take this team to the Super Bowl. I’m not saying they should definitely get one
of these players, but if they don’t at least inquire about the price, they are
stupid. Estimated Probability:
Chances of actually getting McNabb or Anderson, 1%. Chances of inquiring about one or both,
8%.
Next Priority: Change
the team goal from “Earning the trophy bearing our founder’s name,” to “Earning
the trophy bearing Vince Lombardi’s name.” Reason: Not all
changes involve personnel, some are philosophical. Being that I don’t have HBO, I wasn’t able to
watch this season of Hard Knocks, but it was brought to my attention that in a
preseason manager’s meeting the Chief’s president Carl Peterson addressed his
subordinates and said “Our goal this year is no different than any other year,
to win the trophy bearing our founder’s name.”
Of course, Peterson mean the Lamar
Hunt trophy, which goes to the team that wins the American Football
Conference. This is appalling. Your goal should be to win the Super Bowl,
not just make it there. Winning the
Lombardi Trophy automatically takes care of everything else. Estimated Probability:
2%
NFL GMs say it takes five years before you can fully evaluate success or failure in the college draft. Five years later, let’s take a look at what the first round circa 2002 might have looked like if the GMs had known then what they know now. Time to ponder the possibilities…
1) Houston Texans
Actual Pick: David Carr, QB, Fresno State Should have taken: Ed Reed, SS, Miami (Round 1, pick 24, Ravens) Analysis: Reed is arguably the most dominant defensive player in the NFL today and Carr never panned out in Houston. Had an offensive tackle been worthy of the #1 pick Houston would have taken him instead.
2) Carolina Panthers Actual Pick: Julius Peppers, DE, North Carolina Should have taken: Julius Peppers, DE, North Carolina (Round 1, pick 2, Panthers) Analysis: Peppers played a large role in the Super Bowl run the following season and I don’t think Carolina regrets this pick one bit, despite better players being available.
3) Detroit Lions Actual Pick: Joey Harrington, QB, Oregon Should have taken: Clinton Portis, RB, Miami (Round 2, pick 51, Broncos)Analysis: Portis is exactly what Detroit needed, even though their leading rusher the previous season, James Stewart, averaged 4.8 yards per carry. In a year when Patrick Ramsey was the most notable QB taken, it would be wise to pass on a passer rather than stretch for one.
The Lions would get a longterm solution to RB just a few years after Barry Sanders' retirement
4) Buffalo Bills
Actual Pick: Mike Williams, T, Texas Should have taken: Roy Williams, DB, Oklahoma (Round 1, pick 8, Cowboys)Analysis: Along with QB, OT and OG were also very weak in this year’s draft. Williams was probably the third best player taken this draft, so he’s a steal at pick 4.
5) San Diego Chargers
Actual Pick: Quentin Jammer, DB, Texas Should have taken: Dwight Freeney, DE, Syracuse (Round 1, pick 11, Colts)Analysis: Just imagine Freeney and Shawne Merriman on the same team! To get Freeney at pick 5 would have been an extraordinary stroke of fortune.
6) Kansas City Chiefs
Actual Pick: Ryan Sims, DT, North Carolina Should have taken: Javon Walker, WR, Florida State (Round 1, pick 20, Packers) Analysis: The Chiefs have had many troubles drafting wideouts the last several seasons, including a bust in Sylvester Morris in 2000. Even though they really needed defensive help, there wasn’t a great defensive player available unless they wanted to trade down for Lito Sheppard or John Henderson.
7) Minnesota Vikings
Actual Pick: Bryant McKinnie, T, Miami Should have taken: Deion Branch, WR, Louisville (Round 2, pick 65, Patriots) Analysis: The Vikings had the best wideout in the game in Randy Moss and a fading Hall of Famer in Cris Carter. Throwing Branch, who wouldn’t come into his own until a few years later, would have replaced Moss right at the right time.
8) Dallas Cowboys
Actual Pick: Roy Williams, DB, Oklahoma Should have taken: Brian Westbrook, RB, Villanova (Round 3, pick 91, Eagles) Analysis: Dallas would have been more than happy to take Williams here, but he was already drafted #4 by Buffalo (a sign that the Cowboys did well when he slipped to #8). Westbrook would fill a need at RB while also depriving arch rival Philly of their most potent offensive weapon.
The Eagles sure are happy that Dallas wasn't smart enough to take Westbrook 8th overall
9) Jacksonville Jaguars
Actual Pick: John Henderson, DT, Tennessee Should have taken: John Henderson, DT, Tennessee (Round 1, pick 9, Jaguars)Analysis: No need to take this pick back. Henderson has been consistent and durable, playing all 16 games in every season since his rookie campaign, and making a Pro-Bowl appearance in 2004.
10) Cincinnati Bengals Actual Pick: Levi Jones, T, Arizona State Should have taken: Bryant McKinnie, T, Miami (Round 1, pick 7, Vikings) Analysis: If an OT is what the Bengals really wanted, then McKinnie was the best one available this year.
11) Indianapolis Colts
Actual Pick: Dwight Freeney, DE, Syracuse Should have taken: Jeremy Shockey, TE, Miami (Round 1, pick 14, Giants)Analysis: Adding Shockey to a receiving corps of Marvin Harrison, and the next year, Reggie Wayne, would have made for one ridiculously good downfield passing game…. Not that it really needed that much improvement.
12) Arizona Cardinals
Actual Pick: Wendell Bryant, DT, Wisconsin Should have taken: Charles Grant, DE, Georgia (Round 1, pick 25, Saints)
Analysis: The fact that Grant should have been drafted 12th overall is telling of how weak the 2002 draft really was. But Grant has been durable, playing all 16 games in every pro season, while also inconsistent, albeit producing back-to-back double digit sack seasons in 2003-04.
13) New Orleans Saints
Actual Pick: Donte Stallworth, WR, Tennessee
Should have taken: Lito Sheppard, CB, Florida (Round 1, pick 26, Eagles)
Analysis: Stallworth has been a serviceable NFL player, but Sheppard would have provided Pro-Bowl caliber play at the CB position for several seasons to come.
14) New York Giants
Actual Pick: Jeremy Shockey, TE, Miami
Should have taken: Daniel Graham, TE, Colorado (Round 1, pick 21, Patriots)
Analysis: With Shockey already going at pick number 10 to the Colts, the Giants needed a TE. Graham would provide a good threat and, would cost less money in the longrun, and wouldn’t criticize coaches or quarterbacks.
15) Tennessee Titans
Actual Pick: Albert Haynesworth, DT, Tennessee
Should have taken: Albert Haynesworth, DT, Tennessee (Round 1, pick 15, Titans)
Analysis: Tennessee becomes the third team who cannot regret their pick. The hometown fan-favorite, Haynesworth will still be starting 5 seasons later and playing at an above average level.
16) Cleveland Browns
Actual Pick: William Green, RB, Boston College
Should have taken: DeShaun Foster, RB, UCLA (Round 2, pick 34, Panthers)
Analysis: Taking Foster this high would be a bit of a stretch, but at this point, he’s the best RB available and who knows? Maybe if he was drafted by Cleveland he would have been able to stay relatively healthier.
17) Oakland Raiders
Actual Pick: Phillip Buchanon, CB, Miami
Should have taken: Quentin Jammer, CB, Texas (Round 1, pick 5, Chargers)
Analysis: With Lito Sheppard off the board at this point, Jammer becomes the next best option. He would provide more stability at the position compared to Buchanon, and with a name like “Jammer” he was born to play the corner!
18) Atlanta Falcons
Actual Pick: T.J. Duckett, RB, Michigan State
Should have taken: Antwaan Randle El, WR, Indiana (Round 2, pick 62, Steelers)
Analysis: The Falcons inability to draft a WR in the first round is duly noted, but Randle El would have made their draft. He’s basically a clone of Mike Vick and the two of them together could have formed quite a powerful duo.
Vick and Randle El possess similar abilities. On the field at the same time, they could be dangerous
19) Denver Broncos
Actual Pick: Ashley Lelie, WR, Hawaii
Should have taken: Alex Brown, DE, Florida (Round 4, pick 104, Bears)
Analysis: Lelie was tremendously inconsistent during his tenure with Denver, but Brown would provide several years of durability and sack production.
20) Green Bay Packers
Actual Pick: Javon Walker, WR, Florida State
Should have taken: Ashley Lelie, WR, Hawaii (Round 1, pick 19, Broncos)
Analysis: Lelie would obviously not quite live up to Javon Walker expectations, but with Walker already gone to Kansas City at pick #6, Lelie is the best available WR at pick 20.
21) New England Patriots
Actual Pick: Daniel Graham, TE, Colorado
Should have taken: Napoleon Harris, LB, Northwestern (Round 1, pick 23, Raiders)
Analysis: The Patriots would miss Graham’s presence on the offense, but replacing him with Harris’ versatility alongside Tedi Bruschi in the 3-4 scheme would make their defense that much stronger.
22) New York Jets
Actual Pick: Bryan Thomas, DE, Alabama-Birmingham
Should have taken: Larry Foote, LB, Michigan (Round 4, pick 128, Steelers)
Analysis: This is a risky pick since I believe Foote has been a product of the system in Pittsburgh (much like Kendrell Bell). But seriously, what has Bryan Thomas done lately?
23) Oakland Raiders
Actual Pick: Napoleon Harris,LB, Northwestern
Should have taken: Josh Reed, WR, Louisiana State (Round 2, pick 36, Bills)
Analysis: Reed is simply the best player available at this point in the first round. Seeing as how the Raiders would later trade Harris for Randy Moss, it is difficult to gauge whether or not they would actually take him, however.
24) Baltimore Ravens
Actual Pick: Ed Reed, DB, Miami
Should have taken: Brian Williams, DB, North Carolina State (Round 4, pick 105, Vikings)
Analysis: The Ravens were this year’s biggest winner, snagging Reed, but after he goes number one overall to the Texans, they are now the biggest losers, having instead to settle for Williams who is a steady tackler.
Baltimore becomes the draft's biggest loser because defensive MVP Ed Reed was stolen with the #1 overall pick
25) New Orleans Saints
Actual Pick: Charles Grant, DE, Georgia
Should have taken: Larry Tripplett, DT, Washington (Round 2, pick 42, Colts)
Analysis: The Saints already made out big time when they got Lito Sheppard at pick # 13, so they shouldn’t be too upset when they lose Grant and replace him with Tripplett. Neither player is really worthy of first round money anyway.
26) Philadelphia Eagles
Actual Pick: Lito Sheppard, DB, Florida
Should have taken: Najeh Davenport, RB, Miami (Round 4, pick 135, Packers)
Analysis: Since both Sheppard (pick 13 to the Saints) and Brian Westbrook (pick 8 to the Cowboys) have already been robbed from the Eagles in this draft, they must take the best available player. Davenport, a reliable and productive backup, must step outside his comfort zone and into the starting lineup for the Eagles.
26) San Francisco 49ers
Actual Pick: Mike Rumph, DB, Miami
Should have taken: David Carr, QB, Fresno State (Round 1, pick 1, Texans)
Analysis: Carr’s career could very well have been different had he been in a system conducive to his strengths. I can’t go so far as to say that the 49ers would have worked out better for him, but I think San Fran would be willing to take its chances at this point.
27) Seattle Seahawks
Actual Pick: Jerramy Stevens, TE. Washington
Should have taken: Randy McMichael, TE, Georgia (Round 4, pick 114, Dolphins)
Analysis: The cowardly Stevens has been all talk since day 1 in Seattle. McMichael’s statistics are just as good for his career, but come without all the extraneous distractions.
28) Chicago Bears
Actual Pick: Marc Colombo, OT, Boston College
Should have taken: David Garrard, QB, East Carolina (Round 4, pick 108, Jaguars)
Analysis: The Bears would have liked if David Carr could have slipped just two more picks because their offensive line would have provided the immense increase in pass protection that Carr needed. Garrard, in the worst case, provides a stopgap until Rex Grossman arrives a few years later.
With Garrard on the Bears, things may have been different in Chicago
29) Pittsburgh Steelers
Actual Pick: Kendall Simmons, OG, Auburn
Should have taken: Kendall Simmons, OG, Auburn (Round 1, pick 29, Steelers)
Analysis: Simmons has been a good starter for the Steelers, although he has battled some injuries. I don’t think they would change their pick if given the chance.
30) St. Louis Rams
Actual Pick: Robert Thomas, LB, UCLA
Should have taken: Andra Davis, LB, Florida (Round 5, pick 141, Browns)
Analysis: Davis makes the biggest jump in the entire draft, moving up 111 spots into the first round. He isn’t going to cover the best or accumulate dozens of sacks, but one thing he does do well is stop the run, and the Rams could really use that over the next few seasons.
31) Washington Redskins
Actual Pick: Patrick Ramsey, QB, Tulane
Should have taken: Andre Gurode, OG, Colorado (Round 2, pick 37, Cowboys)
Analysis: Ramsey, sadly, probably would have been better off had he been selected by a better team (much like David Carr). Gurode would provide a steady run blocking force in the middle of the line and the versatility to play both guard an center.
I really don’t gamble (anymore). But when I did back in the day I based my picks mostly on hunches and basic observations rather than trends and hours of research. That being said, here’s who I would take in this weekend’s opening round of NFL playoffs.
Kansas City @ Indianapolis (-7) (O/U 51) I’d take the Chiefs and the points for a multitude of reasons, the most prominent being that the Colts would have a hard time tackling a scarecrow. So how they are going to contain Larry Johnson is a mystery to me. I think LJ will rush more than 30 times for more than 160 yards and at least 2 touchdowns. Meanwhile, this isn’t the same Chief’s defense that Peyton Manning destroyed in the playoffs in 2003. Jared Allen can put the kind of pressure on Manning that ruined him against the Steelers last year. The Chiefs have a decent chance to win this game outright but they will certainly keep it close. I’d go with the under 51 points but just barely.
Dallas @ Seattle (-3) (O/U 46.5) Both teams, on paper, appear nearly unstoppable in the weak NFC but neither has a whole lot going their way right now. Seattle is at home and I like them to advance to the second round, but I have to go with the Cowboys +3 on this one. I think both defenses will show up to play so the under is looking good too. This could be one of those games with a few big plays and lots of yards but not a lot of points. I look for both Tony Romo and Matt Hasselbeck to throw for 250+ yards each but also toss a handful of interceptions combined.
NY Jets @ New England (-9) (O/U 38) To me, this game is a no-brainer. The Patriots will win the game but only by 6 or 7 points at home. Take the Jets +9 and the over 38. The Jets have played some surprisingly good football of late albeit against less than worthy opponents, however, they play a brand of football that seems to have a winning formula in the playoffs and they have the right personnel to run it. But, let’s be realistic here, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots are not going to lose at home in the first round to a divisional rival. The Jets will keep it close though, so take the points.
NY Giants @ Philadelphia (-7) (O/U 46.5) Another no-brainer. The Giants have backed into the playoffs and seemingly lack desire, while Jeff Garcia has magically found his 2000-2002 form and Philadelphia has been re-energized. The Giants will have a new man calling the plays for this game, and how do you prepare for the crazy, Playstation-like blitzes that the Eagles defense are sure to bring? Eli Manning might want to put extra pads beneath his uniform because he’s going to get planted to the ground repeatedly. Philly easily covers the spread and the over.
Fans with tickets are losers in NFL’s flex scheduling Flex scheduling will be great for the vast majority of NFL fans. Obviously, NBC is making out big; they’re hand picking games to air just about a couple weeks before the set date. Ratings should double down the stretch. Could you imagine, for example, watching a Dolphins-Browns game in late December? Instead, we’ll get to see that big Patriots-Broncos showdown. Fans with tickets to those games are getting screwed, though. If you had tickets to this week’s Giants-Bears game in the Meadowlands, you were planning on leaving the stadium late in the afternoon and, depending on where you lived, getting home early enough to still get 8 hours of sleep for Monday morning’s workday. Instead, you’ll be getting to the game about same time you were expecting to be home, and you had almost no reaction time to change your plans since the announcement was just made days ago. If you were flying to New York from Chicago, now your flight leaves at 8:30pm even though the game starts at 8:00. The selfish bigwigs in charge at the networks should take into consideration the fan’s, player’s, coach’s, and other related individual’s travel arrangements. I was personally affected by a short notice change of start time back in late October 2001. Due to a postponement of games stemming from the September 11 terrorist attacks, an ESPN Sunday Night game was to be played at the same time as Game 7 of the World Series. Of course, Fox nor ESPN could have this, so the Chiefs-Colts game to which I held tickets was moved to Thursday night. In addition to unexpectedly missing 2 days of school and work that I would not have otherwise missed, I had to fork over $245 to the travel agency change my flight and hotel arrangements on short notice in order to attend the game. As long as flex scheduling is in place, I will never purchase tickets to any NFL game past Week 7.
Branch’s MVP trophy means little in 2006
The constant and annoying introduction of Deion Branch as a former Super Bowl MVP needs to stop immediately. Branch is a talented receiver but the fact that he had one good game nearly two years ago does not make him one of the greatest receivers in recent history. Nor does it require that sports announcers still remind us of it all this time later. Get over it folks.
Let Barber do what feels right for him
Let’s clear the air with Giant’s RB Tiki Barber. His “premature” retirement following this current NFL season is big news. Barber is seemingly in the prime of his career and he’s one of the top 5 RBs in the game currently. But who in the hell are we to question his motivation and commitment to the New York Giants? Michael Irvin and Tom Jackson in particular should shut up and analyze football games, not individual player’s personal off-field decisions. We don’t know what is going on in Barber’s head or how his body deals with the week-to-week pounding. Barber and his brother Rhonde are significant players in multiple charitable organizations and Tiki has a wife and two college aged sons. I would love to be able to retire at the age of 31 and spend my remaining years with my family and I revere him for being able to do so.
In what figures to be a great game with high scoring passing attacks, the real story everybody will be talking about is Manning vs. Manning. Brother vs Brother. Two quarterbacks sharing the same blood will make their first Super Bowl appearance at the same time, against one another. The 13-3 New York Giants face the 12-4 Indianapolis Colts, who enter the game as 1 point favorites. The Giants enter the game with a strategy of pounding RB Tiki Barber early and often, and that's exactly what they do to open the game. Barber carries the ball the first 4 plays from scrimmage, gaining 21 yards, before taking a playaction fake on the 5th play which draws a 35-yard pass interference penalty. That sets up a New York field goal (3-0 Giants). Colts QB Peyton Manning is sacked once and pressured once by DE Micheal Strahan on his first drive, ending in a punt. But Manning engineers a 9-play, 71-yard drive on the next possession, which ends with a 4-yard TD pass to TE Dallas Clark (7-3 Colts). Not to be outdone, QB Eli Manning strikes quickly back for the Giants, handing off to Barber, then throwing on the next play. He goes 3-for-3 with a TD pass to WR Amani Toomer (10-7 Giants), then, after a blocked punt by CB RW McQuarters, Eli throws a swing pass to Barber for a 20-yard TD (17-7 Giants). Colts K Adam Vinaterri, no stranger to clutch Super Bowl kicks, adds another to his resume, booming a 51-yarder as time expires in the 2nd Quarter (17-10 Giants). HALFTIME. Constant pressure from the outside from Strahan and fellow end Usi Umenyiora results in 4 second half sacks (1 each for them, as well as LBs Antonio Pearce and LaVarr Arrington). P. Manning finds openings in the zones, but the offense is turned one-dimensional as neither RB Dominic Rhodes or Joseph Addai can keep the surging Giants' defense honest. Although another TD pass, this time to WR Marvin Harrison, ties the score midway through the 3rd quarter (17-17 tie), the Colts do not score again. Barber rushes for a 4th quarter touchdown and Jay Feely kicks a couple of 35-yard field goals. The Giants win 30-17. Super Bowl MVP: RB Tiki Barber, 30 carries, 129 yards, 2 TDs (1 rush, 1 rec.).
Individual Achievments
AFC Offensive MVP: Carson Palmer, QB, Bengals NFC Offensive MVP: Eli Manning, QB, Giants
AFC Defensive MVP: Troy Polamalu, SS, Steelers NFC Defensive MVP: Brian Urlacher, LB, Bears
AFC Surprise Player: Ronnie Brown, RB, Dolphins NFC Surprise Player: Rex Grossman, QB, Bears
Best off-season acquisition: Edgerrin James, RB, Cardinals Worst off-season acquistion: Charles Woodson, CB, Packers Coach of the year: John Fox, Panthers Declining Player: Trent Green, QB, Chiefs Rookie of the year: Reggie Bush, RB, Saints
Most rushing yards: Larry Johnson, Chiefs Most passing yards: Peyton Manning, Colts Most recieving yards: Chad Johnson, Bengals
Team-by-Team Breakdown 1Giants (13-3) Why They Might Be Good: Signing LB LaVarr Arrington and CB Sam Madison improves 'D'.Why They Might Be Bad: Madison might not be enough improvement in the secondary.Player to Watch: TE Jeremey Shockey. Can the guy I say is the most overrated and cocky fool in the league actually do something to deserve a Super Bowl ring? 2005 Results: ACTUAL - 11-5, lost NFC Divisional. I PREDICTED - 7-9 Conclusion: QB Eli Manning, RB Tiki Barber, and DE Micheal Strahan lead the team to a Title. 2Bears (12-4) Why They Might Be Good: The NFL's best defense should send 6 players to the Pro Bowl. Why They Might Be Bad: Other than C Olin Kruetz, the offense is full of question marks. Player to Watch: CB Charles Tillman. A guy I thought should not have lost his starting job did, so let's see how he responds. 2005 Results: ACTUAL - 11-5, lost NFC Divisional. I PREDICTED - 8-8 Conclusion: One of the best defenses in NFL history goes at least to the NFC Championship. 3Panthers (12-4) Why They Might Be Good: QB Jake Delhomme is a poor man's Tom Brady Why They Might Be Bad: They can't keep a RB healthy for more than half a season Player to Watch: DT Kris Jenkins. The oft-injured tackle is one of the best players in the league 2005 Results: ACTUAL - 11-5, lost NFC Championship. I PREDICTED - 10-6, lose NFC DivisionalConclusion: WRs Steve Smith and Keyshawn Johnson lead a high octane offense 4Colts(11-5) Why They Might Be Good: Manning. Wayne. Harrison. Enough said. Why They Might Be Bad: A solid core of defensive players overachieved in 2005 and losing RB Edgerrin James to free agency was an absolute killer. Player to Watch: LB Cato June. The pressure is on the LB core to control both the run and the short passing game. 2005 Results: ACTUAL - 14-2, lost AFC Divisional round. I PREDICTED - 13-3, Super Bowl win Conclusion: For Manning to get his ring, he'll have to have a career season. 5Steelers (11-5) Why They Might Be Good: Only lost one starter from Super team (WR Antwaan Randle El)Why They Might Be Bad: Randle El gave the offense downfield speed and the ability to run Coach Cowher's "Gadget Plays." Player to Watch: RB Willie Parker. Is he a flash in the pan, or a legitimate 1,300 yard rusher? 2005 Results: ACTUAL - 10-6, won Super Bowl. I PREDICTED - 6-10 Conclusion: The team figures to advance deep into the postseason but I don't forecast a repeat. 6Seahawks (11-5) Why They Might Be Good: A surprisingly balanced offense can score at will. Why They Might Be Bad: Losing OG Steve Hutchison (Vikings) will hurt RB Shaun Alexander. Player to Watch: LB Lofa Tatupu. An outstanding young LB you have to see to believe. 2005 Results: ACTUAL - 13-3, lost Super Bowl. I PREDICTED - 12-4, lose NFC Divisional Conclusion: Defending NFC champs sat back and watched other teams improve, but playing in a weak division means they are a mortal lock for the playoffs. 7Bengals (11-5) Why They Might Be Good: The best passing game of any NFL team plays in Cincinnatti. Why They Might Be Bad: QB Carson Palmer is coming off major knee surgery and may not be the same player. Player to Watch: WR Chad Johnson. Not only is he vowing to come up with creative ways around the ridiculous anti-celebration rules, but he'll need to find the endzone often, especially with depth in question. 2005 Results: ACTUAL - 11-5, lost AFC Wild Card. I PREDICTED - 9-7, lose AFC Wild Card Conclusion: A playoff lock with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. 8Patriots (10-6) Why They Might Be Good: They're better than we think each and every year. Why They Might Be Bad: Confusing personell moves make chemistry a possible issue. Player to Watch: RB Corey Dillon. He no doubt holds the key to the team's success.2005 Results: ACTUAL - 10-6 lost AFC Divisional. I PREDICTED - 11-5, lose AFC Divisional Conclusion: The benefactors of a weak division will make the playoffs. 9Broncos (10-6) Why They Might Be Good: A group of overachievers with a few studs lead the team. Why They Might Be Bad: A possible QB controversary adds fire to the question marks at WR (Ashley Lelie) and RB (Mike Bell). Player to Watch: LB Al Wilson. The ugliest, best run stopper who can run as fast as most RBs. 2005 Results: ACTUAL - 13-3, lost AFC Championship. I PREDICTED - 8-8 Conclusion: A tough schedule makes it difficult to repeat last year's record, but a Western Division title is in the cards. 10
