Make the Correct Calls, Or Else Ditch Replay
Last week at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, a Colts kick returner fumbled while apparently tripping over an invisible line.  The referees ruled the player down by contact, but the Chicago Bears challenged that the player was not down by contact, and that they recovered the fumble.  After review, it was painfully obvious that the Colts runner was not touched and fumbled in mid-air.  The call stood as called due to, apparently, the ref's being unable to determine who recovered the football, even though Bear's running back Garrett Wolfe emerged from the pile with the ball in hand.  Yesterday during the Broncos-Chargers game (in which Broncos coach boldly--and successfully--went for a 2-point conversion down by 1 point with 0:24 remaining), Broncos QB Jay Cutler clearly fumbled a ball that was originally called an incomplete pass, and the Chargers recovered the would-be fumble.  After the booth review, since it was inside the 2-minute warning, the call was not overturned.  Don't ask me how the Broncos ended up with possession 8 yards back from the previous play because I don't have the slightest clue how that can be possible if the pass was incomplete.  A correct call on that play and the Chargers are in first place this week rather than Denver.  The point is: If the NFL and its referees cannot overturn a slam dunk replay, the ditch the replay rule all together.  It is indeed only slowing down the game and wasting time if they can't overturn the most obvious of mistakes. 

Only Fourteen Games to go, Chiefs Fans
The Kansas City Chiefs have started out 0-2, and with the way they've played, I see no reason to believe things are going to get any better.  During these two miserable games, they've allowed 9 sacks while achieving only 2, can't run the football, can't stop the run, and their asinine, convservative playbook is producing only 9.0 points per game.  These are al the same problems that plagued them last year, en route to a 4-12 season, a 31st ranked offense, and a current 11-game regular season losing streak.  Yesterday, an apparently healthy QB Damon Huard, who was recently ranked by foxsports.com as the 6th best backup QB in the entire NFL, and who was starting this game due to an injury to opening day starter Brodie Croyle, was pulled from the starting lineup in lieu of a practice squad WR Marques Hagans.  Hagans was replaced by 3rd stringer Tyler Thigpen after one play, a QB draw.  Hagans was inserted later in the game, for a 2nd down and 17 to go, a play in which he also ran a QB draw.  Thigpen rarely attempted a throw longer than 10 yards, as evidenced by his atrocious 4.57 yards per attempt.  With any luck, the Chiefs will lose the next 14 games, and by finishing 0-16, the Hunt family will have no choice but to fire GM Carl Peterson, HC Herm Edwards, and every single one of Edward's awful assistants.  The worst thing that can happen to a Chiefs fan at this point is for the team to come back and finish with a respectable record, thus buying Peterson and Edwards more time to further screw up the team.

Patriots Win, But Skeptisicm Remains.
I watched most of the Pats-Jets game yesterday and picked the Jets in my weekly Pro Football Pick'em on fantasysports.yahoo.com.  Though the Patriots won without the best player in the NFL, QB Tom Brady, I'm planning on staying as far away from them in picks for the next couple weeks.  I need to see the team play more games minus Brady before I can conclusively say that they are still a serious contender.  After the Brady injury, I predicted they could do no better than 10 wins, more likely, 8.  Brady makes that big of a difference.  Will I pick them this week at home to beat the 0-2 Miami Dolphins?  Yes.  But I'm not all that confident about it, and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see the 'Fins pull the upset.  I'm also in a Survivor Pool on Yahoo, and there is no way I am circling New England this week.  Instead, I'll look at Buffalo at home against Oakland, Chicago at home against Tampa, or Denver at home against New Orleans.

Young/Vazquez Trade a Good One for D-Backs and White Sox
CF Chris Young of the Diamondbacks looks to be a stud prospect boasting speed, power, and outstanding defense.  Much has been made of the former White Sox farmhand, who, on December 20, 2005 was traded along with Orlando Hernandez and Luis Vizcaino to Arizona for SP Javier Vazquez.  I've heard general comments from White Sox fans saying that it was a mistake to trade Young, and recently Foxsports.com's own Ken Rosenthal quipped that this past offseason's acquisition of Carlos Quentin from Arizona would finally help ease the pain of losing out on Young to Arizona.  What seems left out in this talk every time is that the White Sox acquired a bona fide #1 or #2 starter in Vazquez, who is MLB's second leading strikeout pitcher since 2001 and went 15-8 with a 3.74 ERA in 2007 while playing his home games in hitter friendly U.S. Cellular Field for a 4th place team that lost 90 games.  Sure, the White Sox could use the speedy CFer in their leadoff spot right now, but something tells me that their GM Kenny Williams wouldn't be willing to give up Vazquez to re-acquire him.  A potential 30/30 OFer is about the going rate these days for an Ace.

Rays' Seeason a Pleasant Surprise But...
This in response to Foxsports.com's Dayn Perry's column that the Tampa Bay [Devil] Rays winning season is great for baseball.  It sure is nice to see somebody besides New York and Boston atop the A.L. East, but I greatly fear a Tampa divisional title would give MLB execs a false sense of parity in baseball.  (By the way, they will always be the Devil Rays to me, just as the Angels will always be the Anaheim Angels, or occasionally, the California Angels).  Before this season, I'd have given the Devil Rays a 0% of ever making the playoffs under MLB's current structure.  I now see that they are a legitimate contender for the not only the division, but the pennant.  However, these types of seasons are few and far between.  MLB is in desperate need of a salary cap that would give other small(er) market teams a more fair chance more often.  All top notch free agents have three teams that can afford to sign them:  the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets; once in a while the Cubs, Dodgers, or Angels will join the mix.  In a couple seasons when the Devil Rays' players hit free agency, they will let them walk and they'll stink again... that is if they don't head towards Marlin-i-zation and trade them all before it even gets that far.  The Red Sox and Yankees will never stink so long as they are allowed to throw money around like it's candy.

Whatifsports (WIS) a Must See for Any Sports Fan
Here is a unpaid advertisement for www.whatifsports.com, a subsidiary of Foxsports.com.  WIS is just an amazing website, and if you're a sports fan who hasn't heard about it yet, you should check it out immediately.  Ever been sitting in a bar with your buddies and argue about who would win a series between the 1927 Yankees and the 1969 Mets?  Or how about Grant Hill and Christian Laettner vs Bobby Knight's undefeated Indiana team?  '72 Dolphins against the '85 Bears?  Jordan's Bulls against Wilt's Lakers?  Whatifsports uses a highly complex simulation to match any historical teams in MLB, NFL, NBA, CBB, NHL, and CFB, and then generates a box score with play by play so you can read it as if the game were actually played.  I've simmed all these games and hundreds more and I can't get enough.  WIS also has SimLeagues where you can mix and match players from any era on any team and form your all time dream team (How about Nolan Ryan throwing pirtches to Ivan Rodriguez behind the plate with Brooks Robinson, Ozzie Smith, Roberto Alomar, and Keith Hernandez as their infield defense?).  My favorite though is the Dyansty leagues.  I'm in a MLB Hardball Dynasty where I get to play GM of a baseball franchise complete with 5 minor league teams.  There's a Rule 5 draft, amatuer draft, international free agents, and full trades and free agent signing.  It's just absolutely awesome.

Bears Should Keep Benson
Count me in the minority of Bears fans who think that they should not release RB Cedric Benson, even in spite of his most recent run-in with the law.  The Bears drafted the back whom they obviously believe will carry the bulk of the load in Matt Forte from Tulane.  First, I don't think it's ever a good idea to hand a starting job to a rookie unless the team is in full-blown rebuilding mode, and the Bears think they can compete in the NFC North, especially with the retirement of a certain quarterback famous for a number '4' on his jersey.  It is quite obvious at this time that Benson will never pan out to be the back the Bears thought he would be when they drafted him fourth overall in 2005, but that doesn't mean he can't be productive.  Benson had a couple of halfway decent seasons as a backup to Thomas Jones before taking the starting reigns last season.  He's also the best available insurance policy in case Forte gets hurt or dissapoints.

Announcers have duty to disclose the No-Hitter
I was driving home late last night listening to the White Sox-Twins radio broadcast on Chicago's WSCR 670 AM on Tuesday.  Late in the game, the Sox had a significant lead, but the Twins, I knew, had one run on the board.  The White Sox radio team of Ed Farmer and Steve Stone, declined to announce over the waves that Sox starting pitcher Gavin Floyd had yet to yield a hit to Minnesota.  As a White Sox fan, I sure would have appreciated the knowledge of history possibly in the making.  I definitely would have listened more intently, as my mind often wonders while listening to baseball games on the radio.  Farmer, the play-by-play man, instead said "One run and two errors for the Twins," instead of blurting out "Gavin Floyd has a no-hitter."  It never dawned on me, until Justin Morneau doubled to left center field and Farmer finally came clean, that the White Sox had come this close to one of baseball's remarkable feats.  While other players should not mess around with their teammate's head by making him aware of the situation, it is the announcer's job to tell the whole story, and Floyd's possible no-no was a big part of the picture.

Chiefs' fans don't expect to win
Don't worry, I'm not going to beat a dead horse.  This isn't going to be a rant on how much I hate Carl Peterson, or Herm Edwards.  This is actually to point out that fans of the Kansas City Chiefs have grown content with losing.  In recent blogs (in which I have lambasted Chief's management and called for their heads on sticks outside Arrowhead Stadium) other Chiefs' fans have accused me of over-reacting (among many other things).  One Chiefs' fan commented that "13 [draft] picks this year and [next year's draft] should give [the Chiefs] a chance to compete for the AFC West title in 2010."  Another posted "Even if they do finish 8-8, I will know that they are on there [sic] to greatness the following year."  There was also talk of "getting ready for a championship run," and one guy even said "I don't mind being a .500 team as long as we beat the few teams we need to (you know, division rivals)."  Chiefs' fans are pathetic in this manner.  They are ok with rebuilding, and then two or three years later making a run at winning the division.  They are ok with finishing .500 as long as they beat the stupid Raiders.  Frankly, they are ok with mediocrity.  Quite simply, any sports fan content with mediocrity for any reason is a loser.  Sports isn't about competing for the division, beating your division rivals, or making a run at a championship.  Sports are about winning the championship.  If that doesn't happen, the season was a failure, but fans of the Chiefs often seem to overlook the biggest, most important part of sports.

As any fan of any team does this time of the year when their team is all but eliminated from the playoff chase, I am posturing what the Kansas City Chiefs could do to improve their team for the 2008 season. Here are the moves I would make if I were in charge, and also my estimated probability of the actual Chief’s GM, Carl Peterson, making those moves.

Top Priority: Put the Franchise Tag on Jared Allen and sign him to a 5-year contract if possible.
Reason: Allen has proven in his four seasons that he’s one of the elite pass rushers in the NFL and with him in the lineup, the Chiefs are able to put pressure on the opposing quarterback while only rushing four men. Allen’s 11.5 sacks leads the AFC despite his missing the first two regular season games while serving a suspension.
Estimated Probability: 93% of the Franchise Tag, 40% of getting the long-term contract.


Allen is deserving of a huge free
agent contract this year.

Next Priority: Sign unrestricted free agent OG Alan Faneca to a 5-year contract.
Reason: The Chiefs are in desperate need of offensive linemen and wide receivers, and even though their line was still above average last year after the retirement of Willie Roaf, they are terrible this year after losing Will Shields. Beefing up their interior line would go a long way towards putting them back in contention. They could move Brian Waters over to RG and keep Faneca at his customary LG. The Chiefs need to add a guard and two tackles this off season.
Estimated Probability: Signing high priced free agents to long term contracts is not Peterson’s style. The last time I can remember it happening was when he signed Chester McGlockton to a 6-year, $36 million contract about 10 years ago. That being the case, 5%.

Next Priority: Release every single wide receiver on the team except for Dwayne Bowe
Reason: With the exception of Bowe, this group has to be considered one of the worst receiving corps in recent NFL history. Samie Parker hardly deserves to be on a team’s practice squad, and Eddie Kennison, at age 34, could not successfully return to form after suffering a lower leg injury on the season’s very first play. I have very little faith in any of the other role players such as Jeff Webb and Bobby Sippio.
Estimated Probability: Considering this is a drastic change and these sorts of things rarely happen in real life, 1%. The chances of Parker and Kennison both being gone, however, 70%.

Next Priority: Sign WR Justin Gage as a free agent.
Reason: Gage would be a decent compliment to Bowe for the time being or would be one of the better third receivers in the NFL if the Chiefs were lucky enough to draft somebody better than him in April. After 4 less than spectacular seasons with the Bears, Gage has emerged as the Titans’ leading receiver this year.
Estimated Probability: Given that the Titans will likely make a valiant effort to keep Gage in Tennessee and that the other available wideouts will be too expensive and likely franchised (Randy Moss and Bernard Berrian), I’ll give it only 20%.

Next Priority: Draft only offensive linemen and wide receivers with the first 3 picks in the draft, and draft 3 of each overall.
Reason: As mentioned earlier, they are desperate for these two positions. It doesn’t matter if they go OT, OG, WR; or WR, WR, OG;, or OT, WR, OT, or any other combination of those. Also, if the Chiefs can’t land at least one starting linemen and one starting WR in free agency before the draft, this act then moves all the way up to number 2 of on the priority list.
Estimated Probability: Given that Peterson is stubborn and that coach Herm Edwards will be stupid enough to ask for at least one defensive player (probably in round 2), I’ll give this one only 8%.


Edwards simply did not follow
through on a promise he made
after accepting the Chief's job.

Next Priority: Make this the make or break season for the head coach.
Reason: Edwards inherited a team that averaged close to 30 points per game and had the best offense in the NFL over the previous 4 seasons. Yes, they were statistically better than the Colts in both points and yards. In his first press conference as the new coach he stated he liked having a powerful offense and wouldn’t make any changes. First order of business? Getting rid of the coordinator (Al Saunders) and installing one of his own guys who would run his conservative style offense. The Chiefs now have the lowest scoring offense in the AFC and second worst offense overall. He barely snuck into the playoffs last year at 9-7 and he’s likely going to finish 5-11 this year. His leash should be very short heading into year 3.
Estimated Probability: If the Chiefs finish over .500 next year his job is safe. If they fail to make the playoffs in 2008 or finish under .500, the chances of him getting fired are still only 15%.

Next Priority: Make inquiries to the Eagles on trading for Donovan McNabb and also an inquiry to the agent representing Derek Anderson.
Reason: Plain and simple, the long term answer at quarterback is not currently on the Chief’s roster. Damon Huard is a lifelong backup, and Brodie Croyle, from what I’ve seen, is good enough to get them through the next two or three years until they can find somebody better, but he’s not good enough, nor will he be, to take this team to the Super Bowl. I’m not saying they should definitely get one of these players, but if they don’t at least inquire about the price, they are stupid.
Estimated Probability: Chances of actually getting McNabb or Anderson, 1%. Chances of inquiring about one or both, 8%.

Next Priority: Change the team goal from “Earning the trophy bearing our founder’s name,” to “Earning the trophy bearing Vince Lombardi’s name.”
Reason: Not all changes involve personnel, some are philosophical. Being that I don’t have HBO, I wasn’t able to watch this season of Hard Knocks, but it was brought to my attention that in a preseason manager’s meeting the Chief’s president Carl Peterson addressed his subordinates and said “Our goal this year is no different than any other year, to win the trophy bearing our founder’s name.” Of course, Peterson mean the Lamar Hunt trophy, which goes to the team that wins the American Football Conference. This is appalling. Your goal should be to win the Super Bowl, not just make it there. Winning the Lombardi Trophy automatically takes care of everything else.
Estimated Probability: 2%

NFL GMs say it takes five years before you can fully evaluate success or failure in the college draft.  Five years later, let’s take a look at what the first round circa 2002 might have looked like if the GMs had known then what they know now.  Time to ponder the possibilities…

1)      Houston Texans

Actual Pick:  David Carr, QB, Fresno State
Should have taken:  Ed Reed, SS, Miami (Round 1, pick 24, Ravens)
Analysis:  Reed is arguably the most dominant defensive player in the NFL today and Carr never panned out in Houston.  Had an offensive tackle been worthy of the #1 pick Houston would have taken him instead.

2)      Carolina Panthers
Actual Pick:  Julius Peppers, DE, North Carolina
Should have taken:  Julius Peppers, DE, North Carolina (Round 1, pick 2, Panthers)
Analysis:  Peppers played a large role in the Super Bowl run the following season and I don’t think Carolina regrets this pick one bit, despite better players being available.

3)      Detroit Lions
Actual Pick:  Joey Harrington, QB, Oregon
Should have taken:  Clinton Portis, RB, Miami (Round 2, pick 51, Broncos)Analysis:  Portis is exactly what Detroit needed, even though their leading rusher the previous season, James Stewart, averaged 4.8 yards per carry.  In a year when Patrick Ramsey was the most notable QB taken, it would be wise to pass on a passer rather than stretch for one.


The Lions would get a longterm solution to RB just a few years after Barry Sanders' retirement

4)      Buffalo Bills

Actual Pick:  Mike Williams, T, Texas
Should have taken:  Roy Williams, DB, Oklahoma (Round 1, pick 8, Cowboys)Analysis:  Along with QB, OT and OG were also very weak in this year’s draft.  Williams was probably the third best player taken this draft, so he’s a steal at pick 4.

5)      San Diego Chargers

Actual Pick:  Quentin Jammer, DB, Texas
Should have taken:  Dwight Freeney, DE, Syracuse (Round 1, pick 11, Colts)Analysis:  Just imagine Freeney and Shawne Merriman on the same team!  To get Freeney at pick 5 would have been an extraordinary stroke of fortune.

6)      Kansas City Chiefs

Actual Pick:  Ryan Sims, DT, North Carolina   
Should have taken:  Javon Walker, WR, Florida State (Round 1, pick 20, Packers)
Analysis:  The Chiefs have had many troubles drafting wideouts the last several seasons, including a bust in Sylvester Morris in 2000.  Even though they really needed defensive help, there wasn’t a great defensive player available unless they wanted to trade down for Lito Sheppard or John Henderson.

7)      Minnesota Vikings

Actual Pick:  Bryant McKinnie, T, Miami  
Should have taken:  Deion Branch, WR, Louisville (Round 2, pick 65, Patriots) 
Analysis:  The Vikings had the best wideout in the game in Randy Moss and a fading Hall of Famer in Cris Carter.  Throwing Branch, who wouldn’t come into his own until a few years later, would have replaced Moss right at the right time.

8)      Dallas Cowboys

Actual Pick:  Roy Williams, DB, Oklahoma 
Should have taken:  Brian Westbrook, RB, Villanova (Round 3, pick 91, Eagles) 
Analysis:  Dallas would have been more than happy to take Williams here, but he was already drafted #4 by Buffalo (a sign that the Cowboys did well when he slipped to #8).  Westbrook would fill a need at RB while also depriving arch rival Philly of their most potent offensive weapon.


The Eagles sure are happy that Dallas wasn't smart enough to take Westbrook 8th overall

9)      Jacksonville Jaguars

Actual Pick:  John Henderson, DT, Tennessee 
Should have taken:  John Henderson, DT, Tennessee (Round 1, pick 9, Jaguars)Analysis:  No need to take this pick back.  Henderson has been consistent and durable, playing all 16 games in every season since his rookie campaign, and making a Pro-Bowl appearance in 2004.

10)  Cincinnati Bengals 
Actual Pick:  Levi Jones, T, Arizona State 
Should have taken:  Bryant McKinnie,  T, Miami (Round 1, pick 7, Vikings) 
Analysis:  If an OT is what the Bengals really wanted, then McKinnie was the best one available this year.  

11)  Indianapolis Colts

Actual Pick:  Dwight Freeney, DE, Syracuse 
Should have taken:  Jeremy Shockey, TE, Miami (Round 1, pick 14, Giants)Analysis:  Adding Shockey to a receiving corps of Marvin Harrison, and the next year, Reggie Wayne, would have made for one ridiculously good downfield passing game…. Not that it really needed that much improvement.

12)  Arizona Cardinals

Actual Pick:  Wendell Bryant, DT, Wisconsin   
Should have taken:  Charles Grant, DE, Georgia (Round 1, pick 25, Saints) 

Analysis:  The fact that Grant should have been drafted 12th overall is telling of how weak the 2002 draft really was.  But Grant has been durable, playing all 16 games in every pro season, while also inconsistent, albeit producing back-to-back double digit sack seasons in 2003-04.

13)  New Orleans Saints

Actual Pick:  Donte Stallworth, WR, Tennessee  

Should have taken:  Lito Sheppard, CB, Florida (Round 1, pick 26, Eagles) 

Analysis:  Stallworth has been a serviceable NFL player, but Sheppard would have provided Pro-Bowl caliber play at the CB position for several seasons to come.

14)  New York Giants

Actual Pick:  Jeremy Shockey, TE, Miami 

Should have taken:  Daniel Graham, TE, Colorado (Round 1, pick 21, Patriots) 

Analysis:  With Shockey already going at pick number 10 to the Colts, the Giants needed a TE.  Graham would provide a good threat and, would cost less money in the longrun, and wouldn’t criticize coaches or quarterbacks.

15)  Tennessee Titans

Actual Pick:  Albert Haynesworth, DT, Tennessee 

Should have taken:  Albert Haynesworth, DT, Tennessee (Round 1, pick 15, Titans) 

Analysis:  Tennessee becomes the third team who cannot regret their pick.  The hometown fan-favorite, Haynesworth will still be starting 5 seasons later and playing at an above average level.

16)  Cleveland Browns

Actual Pick:  William Green, RB, Boston College   

Should have taken:  DeShaun Foster, RB, UCLA (Round 2, pick 34, Panthers) 

Analysis:  Taking Foster this high would be a bit of a stretch, but at this point, he’s the best RB available and who knows?  Maybe if he was drafted by Cleveland he would have been able to stay relatively healthier.

17)  Oakland Raiders 

Actual Pick:  Phillip Buchanon, CB, Miami 

Should have taken:  Quentin Jammer, CB, Texas (Round 1, pick 5, Chargers)

Analysis:  With Lito Sheppard off the board at this point, Jammer becomes the next best option.  He would provide more stability at the position compared to Buchanon, and with a name like “Jammer” he was born to play the corner!

18)  Atlanta Falcons

Actual Pick:  T.J. Duckett, RB, Michigan State 

Should have taken:  Antwaan Randle El, WR, Indiana (Round 2, pick 62, Steelers)

Analysis:  The Falcons inability to draft a WR in the first round is duly noted, but Randle El would have made their draft.  He’s basically a clone of Mike Vick and the two of them together could have formed quite a powerful duo.


Vick and Randle El possess similar abilities.  On the field at the same time, they could be dangerous

19)  Denver Broncos

Actual Pick:  Ashley Lelie, WR, Hawaii   

Should have taken:  Alex Brown, DE, Florida (Round 4, pick 104, Bears)

Analysis:  Lelie was tremendously inconsistent during his tenure with Denver, but Brown would provide several years of durability and sack production.

20)  Green Bay Packers

Actual Pick:  Javon Walker, WR, Florida State 

Should have taken:  Ashley Lelie, WR, Hawaii   (Round 1, pick 19, Broncos)

Analysis:  Lelie would obviously not quite live up to Javon Walker expectations, but with Walker already gone to Kansas City at pick #6, Lelie is the best available WR at pick 20.

21)  New England Patriots

Actual Pick:  Daniel Graham, TE, Colorado 

Should have taken:  Napoleon Harris, LB, Northwestern (Round 1, pick 23, Raiders)

Analysis:  The Patriots would miss Graham’s presence on the offense, but replacing him with Harris’ versatility alongside Tedi Bruschi in the 3-4 scheme would make their defense that much stronger.

22)  New York Jets

Actual Pick:  Bryan Thomas, DE, Alabama-Birmingham   

Should have taken:  Larry Foote, LB, Michigan (Round 4, pick 128, Steelers)

Analysis:  This is a risky pick since I believe Foote has been a product of the system in Pittsburgh (much like Kendrell Bell).  But seriously, what has Bryan Thomas done lately?

23)  Oakland Raiders

Actual Pick:  Napoleon Harris,LB, Northwestern 

Should have taken:  Josh Reed, WR, Louisiana State (Round 2, pick 36, Bills)

Analysis:   Reed is simply the best player available at this point in the first round.  Seeing as how the Raiders would later trade Harris for Randy Moss, it is difficult to gauge whether or not they would actually take him, however.

24)  Baltimore Ravens

Actual Pick:  Ed Reed, DB, Miami 

Should have taken:  Brian Williams, DB, North Carolina State (Round 4, pick 105, Vikings)

Analysis:   The Ravens were this year’s biggest winner, snagging Reed, but after he goes number one overall to the Texans, they are now the biggest losers, having instead to settle for Williams who is a steady tackler.


Baltimore becomes the draft's biggest loser because defensive MVP Ed Reed was stolen with the #1 overall pick

25)  New Orleans Saints

Actual Pick:  Charles Grant, DE, Georgia   

Should have taken:  Larry Tripplett, DT, Washington (Round 2, pick 42, Colts)

Analysis:   The Saints already made out big time when they got Lito Sheppard at pick # 13, so they shouldn’t be too upset when they lose Grant and replace him with Tripplett.  Neither player is really worthy of first round money anyway.

26) Philadelphia Eagles 

Actual Pick:  Lito Sheppard, DB, Florida   

Should have taken:  Najeh Davenport, RB, Miami (Round 4, pick 135, Packers)

Analysis:  Since both Sheppard (pick 13 to the Saints) and Brian Westbrook (pick 8 to the Cowboys) have already been robbed from the Eagles in this draft, they must take the best available player.  Davenport, a reliable and productive backup, must step outside his comfort zone and into the starting lineup for the Eagles.

26)  San Francisco 49ers 

Actual Pick:  Mike Rumph, DB, Miami 

Should have taken:  David Carr, QB, Fresno State (Round 1, pick 1, Texans)

Analysis:  Carr’s career could very well have been different had he been in a system conducive to his strengths.  I can’t go so far as to say that the 49ers would have worked out better for him, but I think San Fran would be willing to take its chances at this point.

27)  Seattle Seahawks

Actual Pick:  Jerramy Stevens, TE. Washington 

Should have taken:  Randy McMichael, TE, Georgia (Round 4, pick 114, Dolphins)

Analysis:  The cowardly Stevens has been all talk since day 1 in Seattle.  McMichael’s statistics are just as good for his career, but come without all the extraneous distractions.

28)  Chicago Bears

Actual Pick:  Marc Colombo, OT, Boston College

Should have taken:  David Garrard, QB, East Carolina (Round 4, pick 108, Jaguars)

Analysis:  The Bears would have liked if David Carr could have slipped just two more picks because their offensive line would have provided the immense increase in pass protection that Carr needed.  Garrard, in the worst case, provides a stopgap until Rex Grossman arrives a few years later.


With Garrard on the Bears, things may have been different in Chicago

29)  Pittsburgh Steelers

Actual Pick:  Kendall Simmons, OG, Auburn   

Should have taken:  Kendall Simmons, OG, Auburn (Round 1, pick 29, Steelers)

Analysis:  Simmons has been a good starter for the Steelers, although he has battled some injuries.  I don’t think they would change their pick if given the chance.

30)  St. Louis Rams

Actual Pick:  Robert Thomas, LB, UCLA   

Should have taken:  Andra Davis, LB, Florida (Round 5, pick 141, Browns)

Analysis:  Davis makes the biggest jump in the entire draft, moving up 111 spots into the first round.  He isn’t going to cover the best or accumulate dozens of sacks, but one thing he does do well is stop the run, and the Rams could really use that over the next few seasons.

31)  Washington Redskins

Actual Pick:  Patrick Ramsey, QB, Tulane  

Should have taken:  Andre Gurode, OG, Colorado (Round 2, pick 37, Cowboys) 

Analysis:  Ramsey, sadly, probably would have been better off had he been selected by a better team (much like David Carr).  Gurode would provide a steady run blocking force in the middle of the line and the versatility to play both guard an center.

Chicago Bears CB and KR/PR Devin Hester has, rumor has it, shown an unwillingness to play offense since college because “I’m a cornerback,” according to Hester himself.  Scouts and coaches note his lack of fundamental ability to run routes and catch passes on the fly, in addition to his counterintuitive thought process (who wouldn’t want to play both sides of the ball, getting all the glamour, not to mention the increased bargaining power during contract negotiations?) as reasons why the Bears didn’t play him there more often in a rookie season that saw him return SEVEN kicks for touchdowns.

I liken his selfishness to that of former Washington National and current Chicago Cub Alfonso Soriano, who refused to play the outfield even though Nationals coaches thought he would them a better team by switching positions.  Make no mistake, Hester has the potential to be a scary weapon on the offense.  The coaches know it, the fans know it, the media knows it, and Hester has to know it by now.  Hester is a selfish and very stupid person if it is true that he refuses to learn the position.

Few other NFL players in history run better with the ball in their hands.

Bears coach Lovie Smith and offensive coordinator Ron Turner must convince Hester to practice hard in the off-season to learn the basics of running simple routes and improving his mechanics.  He changes the way the opponent gameplans against the Bears.  Exhibit A: Super Bowl XLI.  Hester returns the opening kickoff 93 yards for a touchdown and never sees a kick or punt worth returning the rest of the game.  Hester can do, to a much lesser extent, for the Bears similar things to what Reggie Bush does for the Saints.  Every play the defense must locate Bush and assign somebody to him.  Is he going to run the ball?  Catch it?  Is he a decoy?  No other player on Chicago’s thin receiver corps has that capability.

While it is tempting to argue that any player good enough to play in the NFL is good enough to mentally learn a new position so long as he has the physical skills to play it—and there is absolutely no doubt Hester has the physical skills—I will simply state that Hester only needs to learn the basics: Running the go and the stop-and-go; taking a handoff or a pitch; running a reverse; and catching a screen pass.  Folks, the man is an absolute Demon with the football in his hands.  He has natural abilities to elude potential tacklers and flat out burn defenders unlike any player we’ve seen in NFL history.  Getting the ball in his hands on offense is the next logical step.

Imagine the possibilities!  All Hester has to do is learn three plays (reverse, screen pass, go pattern) and how to fake all three plays as a decoy.  Asking him to perform his hocus pocus on offense for 5-8 plays per game minimum is not asking too much, and Bears coaches are stupid if they don’t make the move for 2007.

Are you ready for some craziness?  Here are ten Super Bowl XLI-related things I think will happen that you won’t agree with.

10) The Bears will win the game.  Chicago has hit their mid-season form all over again and the clock has struck midnight on the Colts rush defense.  Thomas Jones will rack up first downs at will and the Bears will control the clock, keeping Peyton Manning and company on the sidelines.

9) Rex Grossman will play admirably.  True, for the Bears to win, he almost has to.  But Chicago has proven this season they can win in the absence of stellar quarterback play.  Sure, he’ll throw an interception, he’ll take a sack he shouldn’t have taken, and he’ll fumble once or twice, but his quarterback rating will be above 80.0.


Maybe the '07 Bears should make the sequel.

8) Lovie Smith and Tony Dungy will make some mistakes.  Whether it be an ill-advised challenge flag, a poor decision on a 4th-and-1, or a deer-in-the-headlights demeanor, these two coaches are bound to make some mental errors.

7) Dallas Clark won’t catch a pass.  The X-factor in the Indianapolis offense will have trouble finding openings between LBs Brian Urlacher, and Hunter Hillenmeyer; and safety Daneal Manning.

6) In spite of the loss, Peyton Manning will be spectacular.  The infamous big-game choker will play like a champion—in a losing effort.


Chico will be head coach of the Cowboys, but he'll have to wait until Norv Turner is fired first.

5) Ron Rivera isn’t going anywhere.  He’ll come back as Bear’s defense coordinator next year and take a head coaching position in 2008.

4) Devin Hester will be a non-factor.  He won’t win the game for the Bears, but he won’t lose it either.  There has been much talk about his fumbling issues, but that won’t come into play Sunday.

3) Rashied Davis will win the MVP.  Just look for him to score two long touchdowns at critical junctures during the game.

2) The Colts will play in Super Bowl XLII, the Bears will not.  Indianapolis will shore up their defensive line while Chicago is bound to lose Briggs to free agency.


Could he really miss in the clutch?  Oh, yes, he can!

1) Adam Vinatieri will miss the game-winning 50-yard field goal with :04 left in the game, giving the Bears a 27-26 victory.

Hey, don’t laugh, it could happen!

 

Pick any two pro football teams and hypothetically pit them against one another in Sunday’s Super Bowl and you could easily make a case for either team that the key to victory is pressuring the quarterback.  This week, while reading through all the previews, listening to experts debate the game, and talking about Super Bowl XLI with my friends, I keep hearing that the key to winning (for either team) is pressuring the opposing quarterback.

It’s about time somebody come up with something a little bit cleverer than that.  Told from a Bear’s perspective, here we go.


"The Bears must pressure Manning,"  Yeah, yeah, I've ridden that bus before, bub.

The Chicago Bears will need to pressure Peyton Manning—yes indeed—and they would prefer to get that pressure without being forced to blitz.  The Indianapolis Colts led the NFL in passer rating facing a blitz this season, so it might be wise for Chicago to drop seven into coverage most of the game.  Since they employ a defense sparse in blitzing plays anyway, this should not be a problem.

The Colts have an amazing knack for converting third downs.  The vaunted New England  Patriot defense allowed their offense to convert on 53% of the third downs during the AFC Championship game.  In the Wild Card round, the Colts converted on a 3rd-and-16 and a 3rd-and-18.  Both of these came early in the game when the Kansas City Chiefs still had a chance and their defense was playing spectacularly (with the exception of the third down plays, of course).  For the Bears to come close, they’ll need to see more Hunter Smith and less of the moving chain gang.  The magic number is 35%; if the Colts hit less than that, they have no chance at winning.

The Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Patriots (the three teams Indianapolis has defeated to get this far) all entered their games with a simple game plan: run the football against the NFL’s worst rushing defense and the 7th worst in NFL history.  Larry Johnson and Jamal Lewis could muster nary a yard against the Colts, while the Pats had early success and then got away from it, deciding instead to put the game in Tom Brady’s immaculate hands.  Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson will both need to have big games Sunday.  And if they struggle early, offensive coordinator Ron Turner and head coach Lovie Smith will need to stick with it, so as to further make Rex Grossman’s play action passes more sellable.  Grossman, contrary to popular belief, has a fantastic downfield throwing arm and so long as he has the time, and the defense is expecting a run, he can make big plays deep down the field, even with a mediocre receiving corps.

Speaking of mediocre receiving corps, Mushin Muhammad has to show up.  The so-called “big playmaker” has been a non-factor in the playoffs.  With a couple of drops in the last two games, Muhammad is due for a decent game.  If he can catch at least five balls, look out!

The Bears cornerbacks, Nathan Vasher and the underrated Charles Tillman must keep explosive wideouts Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne in front of them whenever possible.  Playing the cover 2 defense, this will not be an easy task, and at times it will be impossible or unnecessary.  The important thing is to make them catch the ball in traffic and wrap them up quickly, limiting the yards after the catch.  Chicago cannot allow Manning to find wide open receivers for big chunks of yards.  Instead, they must make him force the ball into coverage, throw it away, or settle for short gains.


You don't know who this man is?  He could be the MVP of Super Bowl XLI.

And finally, it seems often in the Super Bowl that the winning team will get a heroic effort from an unsung player; a guy who has been a starter but is not talked about as one of the “keys to victory,” and who goes on to have a career day.  For the Bears to win this game, they must get such an effort from one of their role players.  Nobody questions that stars like Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs and Olin Kruetz are going to play well.  Who’s going to be the Bear’s unsung hero?  Look for Hunter Hillenmeyer, Ian Scott, or Rashied Davis to win the MVP award. 

 

First, let’s check out last week’s results and my playoff totals so far:

In the Wild Card round I was 4-for-8 betting the winners and the over/unders.

Indianapolis @ Baltimore:  I went with Colts +4 and the over 40.5.  The Colts won outright 15-6 (1/2), (1/2 this round), (5/10 overall).

Philadelphia @ New Orleans:  I had the Eagles +5.5 and the under 48.  Philly made it close, but the Saints won 27-24 (1/2), (2/4 this round), (6/12 overall).

Seattle @ Chicago:  I advised to go with the underdog road team again (Seahawks +9) and the over 37.  The Bears won at home in overtime 27-24 (2/2), (4/6 this round), (8/14 overall).

New England @ San Diego:  “The Chargers will win the Super Bowl,” I said.  Ha!  I took Marty’s Chargers -5 and the over 47.  The Patriots won 24-21, so I missed both (0/2), (4/8 this round), (8/16 overall).

After two weeks of the playoffs, I’m coming in with a .500 record.  Interestingly, I’m .666 (4-for-6) when betting the underdog and .625 (5-for-8) betting the over/under and .375 (3-for-8) betting the winner.  Hmmmmm, onto the Conference Championship games!

New Orleans @ Chicago (-2.5) (O/U 43.5)
Living near Chicago, it’s tough not to get Bear’s fever right about now.  This is the game that, as a fan of the NFL, I really wanted to see in the NFC.  It’s also the game I didn’t want to see as a Bear’s fan.  The Saint’s offense has players who present serious match-up problems for what has been an overrated Chicago defense for several weeks.  The “Monsters of the Midway” played somewhat well but with poor results against a mistake prone Seattle team last week.  I like the Saints to win the game outright.  Go ahead and parlay the moneyline with the over.

New England @ Indianapolis (-3) (O/U 47.5)
The Patriots are now 8-1 on the road this season, a remarkable feat for the 4th seed in the AFC.  Tom Brady has won something like 251 consecutive playoff games and he’s a notorious Colt killer.  Indy’s defense has been on a tear, only allowing a touchdown and two field goals against two playoff opponents.  The Colts will be energized by their homefield advantage, and it should help them to frustrate a suddenly pedestrian Brady, who threw three interceptions last week.  The Colts cover the points, going on to the Super Bowl.  Since both quarterbacks have struggled in the playoffs, and both defenses have been dominant, the under is a no-brainer.

 

 

Let’s take a look how I did last weekend.

 

 

 

Kansas City @ Indianapolis:  My pick was Kansas City +7 and the Under 51.  Final score was Colts 23, Chiefs 8.  I missed Kansas City and hit the under (1/2).

Dallas @ Seattle:  My pick was Dallas +3 and the under 46.5.  The Seahawks prevailed, 21-20.  I hit both picks (2/2), (3/4 overall).

NY Jets @ New England:  I advised to pick the Jets +9 and the over 38.  The Patriots won 37-16.  Missed on the Jets, hit the over (1/2), (4/6 overall).

NY Giants @ Philadelphia:  I had the Eagles -7 with the over 46.5, but the Eagles only won 23-20 (0/2), (4/8 overall).

Just your every day .500 performance.  Maybe I’ll do better in the second round.  Get your yellowpads out, here are my picks for the NFL Divisional Round of playoffs.

Indianapolis @ Baltimore (-4) (O/U 40.5)

Wow!  Easily the toughest game to pick this week, I don’t think I would put money on this one even if I were a gambler.  What I’m looking at is the Indianapolis defense, which miraculously showed up against the Chiefs last week when nobody thought it would.  Was it for real, or a fluke?  My gut feeling is they continue their momentum on the road against the Ravens, possibly winning without the points but for sure coming within three.  The return of Bob Sanders helped shut down Larry Johnson, and they will do the same to Jamal Lewis, all the while Peyton Manning finds a way to beat a ridiculously good Baltimore defense.  Take Indy +4 along with the over.

Philadelphia @ New Orleans (-5.5 ) (O/U 48)

I have little doubt that the Saints will travel to Chicago in the next round, however, I must take the Eagles and the points for my money.  The way the Philadelphia defense has been playing lately, rushing the quarterback and forcing turnovers, they should be able to keep the game close into the fourth quarter.  They’ll likely be without Lito Sheppard so look for the Saints to spread the field with multiple wideouts… and they’ll be able to get away with it until Drew Brees gets his bell rung a few times and they’re forced to bring more people in to pass protect.  Therefore, I also like the under 48.

Seattle @ Chicago (-9) (O/U 37)

First of all, take Seattle and the points.  Although neither team has played well of late I don’t see the Bears blowing out a team in the playoffs.  The Bears will win this game and host the NFC Championship, but they will have get to get their hands dirty to get there.  They did blow out Seattle early in the season, but that a Seahawks team playing without Shaun Alexander and a Bears team playing with Mike Brown and Tommie Harris.  Rex Grossman will play well and the Bears will run the ball against a suspect Seahawks’ front.  Of course, Chicago’s defense is not the force it was before key injuries, so this game figures to be high scoring.  Go with the over 37.

New England @ San Diego (-5) (O/U 47)

Game of the week, baby!  Two match-ups I can’t wait for in this game: 1) Bill Bilichick’s ingenious defensive gameplan for LaDainian Tomlinson. 2) How Tom Brady will attack the ferocious Charger’s pass rush.  Should be a great game to watch, but who to place your money on?  I’m looking at this game being a shootout so go with the over 47.  I’ll predict 3 defensive and special team’s touchdowns too.  I think the Chargers will win the Super Bowl and they are at home.  Shawne Merriman has a bone to pick with every NFL offense from here on out after feeling he’s been shafted in the Defensive Player of the Year award voting.  Go ahead and give New England the points, take the Chargers.