The first round of the NBA playoffs is almost complete and I've seen enough of the games to be able to tell which teams are for real and which teams are going to come up short.
After watching and dissecting about 3-4 games per day, I've definitely received a strong dosage of postseason action thus far. While teams continue to beat up on each other, the annual awards are being passed out and the incomparable Kobe Bryant waits patiently for the MVP trophy.
Meanwhile, Ernie, Kenny, and Charles continue to be the best in the business at giving fans expert analysis, new footage for Youtube, and up-to-the-minute updates on who's going fishing.
What can we expect from here on out? Here's a glimpse:
L.A. Lakers - The Young Guns have been on a mission since day one of training camp. They made a statement by dispatching the high-powered Denver Nuggets, the first 50-win team in history to get swept out of the playoffs. OOPS, scratch that. Thanks to Hoffman's expertise, the Lakers also dispatched the 50-win Portland JailBlazers 7 years ago. Good job, Hoff. It appears the Lakers make a habit of embarrassing good teams with high expectations in the playoffs.
Kobe is dominating like only he can, while Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom continue to provide the inside presence the Lakers need for them to keep teams guessing on defense. The role players are coming off the bench and taking over during short stretches in games when the stars are either resting or are in foul trouble. The roster is the deepest in the league and they're about to get defensive specialist Trevor Ariza back in a couple weeks. Phil Jackson is on a major mission for his tenth title and has something to prove as a coach. Lakers fans are talking title. It's safe to say the Lakers are back. Advantage, Lakers.
Prediction: Western Conference Finals, NBA Finals, NBA Champions
San Antonio Spurs - Everyone counted them out because they were 1-3 against the Phoenix Suns in the regular season. Everyone said they were too old and lacked the depth needed to successfully defend their title. Everyone said there was a reason the Spurs don't ever repeat as champions.
Then the playoffs started. Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, and Gregg Popovich continue to impress in the postseason because like Kobe, Derek Fisher, and the Zenmaster, they've been there and done that. Once again they've flipped the switch, they're playing championship level defense, and they're proving to the Suns that in order to play elite, you've got to dictate the tempo, protect possessions, and get to the foul line when it matters most. When the Spurs run into the Lakers, they'll realize that the Lakers are just as good in doing the things the Spurs do best. And the Spurs will find out the Lakers are deeper and bigger. And the Spurs won't have home-court advantage. Advantage, Lakers.
Prediction: Western Conference Finals
New Orleans Hornets - The suprise team of the year keeps on surprising. They're stellar play on offense and defense comes from a balanced lineup that is being coached by someone who knows what it takes to go deep in the playoffs. They are about to free the disappointing Dallas Mavericks from their misery and will probably face the Spurs in the second round. The Hornets are deep enough to match up and compete with San Antonio, but a major advantage for the Spurs is that they will get a number of calls going their way late in games.
Against S.A., the Hornets will have to figure out how to prevent Ginobili and Parker from penetrating at will, and Duncan from abusing the 6-9 David West in the post. Popovich will devise a strategy to nullify the Chris Paul-Tyson Chandler alley-oop so Byron Scott will have to find a way to genetrate fluidity and continuity on offense with players like Morris Peterson, Bonzi Wells and Jannero Pargo, who will need to come up huge. And we know that Bruce Bowen will be physical with Peja Stojakovic, thereby minimizing his effectiveness as a three-point shooter so it makes it even that much more important for the Hornets' bench to counter Brent Barry, Fabricio Oberto, Michael Finley, and Kurt Thomas. It will be a great learning experience for the young Hornets, who are still a Michael Redd type of shooting guard away from being a great team. Advantage, Spurs.
Prediction: Western Conference Semifinals
Utah Jazz - The coaching brilliance of Jerry Sloan can only take them so far. Just like last year, the Jazz will give a solid effort only to come up short because a bigger and better team beats them inside. They beat up on a Houston team that was missing their lone inside presence in Yao Ming and included a center who should be retired and an undersized rookie power forward (Luis Scola) who never got any calls going his way. Their best point guard didn't play until game three but it was already too late and the Jazz took advantage. But this time they will face a Lakers unit that has won 12 of 13 dating back to the end of the regular season.
Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer are two of the best pick-n-roll players in the NBA, but Mehmet Okur and Andrei Kirilenko are also two of the most inconsistent players on that Jazz frontline. The Jazz will be game, but they'll be hard pressed to take the Lakers to seven games, let alone win two. They're just not deep enough and their lack of size and muscle inside and absence of a solid defender against Kobe will lead to their demise. They were 1-3 against L.A. in the regular season and Pau Gasol didn't even play in any of those games, making it even harder for the Jazz to strategize and plan their matchups. In addition, former Jazz guard Derek Fisher knows all their plays. Advantage, Lakers.
Prediction: Western Conference Semifinals
Gone Fishin': Houston, Dallas, Phoenix, Denver
Boston - Their two losses at Atlanta prove what I've been thinking all along. This particular team's lack of experience playing together in games of significance has come back to hurt them temporarily. But it's not too late for the guys in green. They're full of veterans and this may be the wake-up call they need in order to get their act together, which they will.
But if it's Detroit and Boston in the East Finals, I like the Pistons' chances. Postseason special Tayshaun Prince will be a load for Paul Pierce, Rasheed Wallace will give KG fits inside and outside, and Chauncey Billips and Rip Hamilton will execute much better than Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo. And the difference will be the Pistons' bench outplaying the Celtics' bench. Two lingering questions remain: Can Kevin Garnett take over a series and is he really cursed? We shall see. Advantage, Pistons.
Prediction: Eastern Conference Finals
Detroit - The unpredictable and mysterious Detroit Pistons already received their wake-up call and they pulled out a tough one on the road against the surprise of the East, Philadelphia. Their success, once again, lies on the shoulders of the enigmatic Wallace. Another huge concern is Coach Flip Saunders' ability to motivate his bunch. It seems like everyone on the roster has something to prove, especially since they collapsed last year at the hands of the one-man show they call Lebron James. If anything, Detroit still has the best team defense in the East when it comes to postseason play because they've proven it so many times in the past. As of press time, Detroit is blowing out the Sixers by 17 and siezing all momentum in the series. Advantage, Pistons.
Prediction: Eastern Conference Finals, NBA Finals
Cleveland - King James keeps doing what he does against the Wiz Kids. The only question is whether or not his teammates will follow suit. Their overall play in the playoffs has been respectable but not exceptional. One thing is clear: the only "soulja" in the series between Cleveland and Washington has been James. The big test comes in the second round against Boston, and if Lebron treats the Celtics the way he did the Pistons last year and advances, I will finally believe. But I just don't think that the Cavaliers have enough toughness as a team unit to match up with the Celtics position for position. Advantage, Celtics.
But for now, let's just enjoy being witnesses.
Prediction: Eastern Conference Semifinals
Orlando - The big surprise in the Magic's first round series against Toronto hasn't been the dominance of Dwight Howard. It's been the steady play of point guard Jameer Nelson. His consistency spearheaded Orlando's attack and he suddenly became another valuable weapon, hitting big shot after big shot. However, Orlando is still prone to giving up easy baskets and Detroit's offensive weapons will know how to take advantage. And if Howard ends up in foul trouble, the Magic will have a hard time keeping Prince, Jason Maxiell, and 'Sheed from scoring inside. In addition, Orlando's guards don't have what it takes to matchup with Detroit's guards, who all move well without the ball. Advantage, Pistons.
Prediction: Eastern Conference Semifinals
Gone Fishin': Washington, Toronto, Atlanta, Philadelphia
And lastly, please Kenny Smith... I plead with you. Do not take that job with the New York Knicks!
That was a hell of a write up. Good job. I'd have to pretty much agree. And if the Lakers continue to play like they have been, The Championship is theres.
The media is incorrect about the Nuggets becoming the 1st 50 win team to be swept.
I've been doing a lot of research on a playoff blog I'm about to write and the first was the 2000-2001 Trailblazers who were swept by the Lakers.
LA is playing great but like I always say to fans of other teams (Houston Rockets) who get overly optimistic -- consider the competition.
The Nuggets were a dangerous team but only because of their offense. They couldn't spell defense and it showed.
The Jazz are one of the best defensive teams in the league. Kirilenko is capable of making things very difficult for Kobe and they match up well with LA at every other position. Especially point guard.
All things considered, I think D. Williams is the best point guard in the NBA.
JDIZZLE...nice read. I definitely agree with you on Jameer Nelson. He has turned it up A COUPLE of notches, playing playoff caliber ball. I'm not sure how long this will last but I'm happy as hell to see him raise his game. I know everyone's dream eastern final matchup is Boston/Detroit, but the Pistons better watch out for my Magic. They will not go down without a fight.
I agree with Hoffman about the Lakers. The Jazz will not lay down like the Nuggets did and this will be a more competitive series. Sweep the Jazz and I will be impressed...the Nuggets won 50 games by outscoring teams, not defending them.
You are so wrong about the Pistons. Their starters are all playing worse than last year, with the exception of Prince. If they manage to get past the Sixers, they will lose in one of the next rounds.
I'd have to agree it will be Lakers over the Spurs in the west.
I dont know about you guys but V-Rad had stepped up his defense in the Round one. Wasnt an offensive threat but gave Melo some problems. Led him to some help defense and Melo never got into a rhythm.
I heard at half time during game 3 the Nuggets were watching the NFL draft. I think they gave up pretty early in this round. But then again AI has downplayed practicing as not being too intricate a part of winning.
Dwight Howard is scary good and will only get better. I also agree that Jameer Nelson has been great. This team is only growing in confidence.
Lebron is Lebron. He has been making his teammates better during this series which is great. Still think the Wizards can get a win in Cleveland but wont win the series.
I think if the Rockets win tonight and it looks like they will, I think that momentum can get them a win in Utah. Call me weird, but I have a feeling there will be a game seven.
Celtics weakness has been exposed. Dont think its a big deal, especially when they will have home court in the Finals. I seriously think the Conference that wins the All Star game should get home court like baseball does with home field.
And Hoff.
I think they were talking about a 50 win team being swept in the regular season and the playoffs combined.
Lol wttf, how is David West going to stop Duncan? Are you serious, Kurt Thomas and Oberto are both Wests size and Chandler will have the job of guarding Duncan if he can stay out of foul trouble, and probably someone longer than West if Chandler is out.
Other than that I like the read, I thought the 1st round match ups were suppose to be tough?
LAKERSFAN4LIFE: I gotta give it to ya for your optimism. Although the Lakers made quick work of the Nuggets, the road ahead will be a lot tougher. As L.A. advances, the teams they will face will be better at execution and defense.
I'd like to think the championship is theirs, but let's not get too overconfident. We're one sprained ankle away from going home early (knocking on wood).
HOFFMAN: Good catch. I do remember that Portland squad the Lakers swept. All that talent, all that attitude, not enough execution and coaching. That's why Dunleavy is now a Clipper.
As far as the competition is concerned, I see your point. But at the same time, the Rockets or the Jazz need to also consider their. Neither of these teams has yet to receive a dose of Pau Gasol.
D-Williams is great at what he does. But Kobe is greater. And Ronnie Brewer will do worse guarding Kobe than Fish or Farmar will guarding Williams.
As a Laker fan, I'd rather face Utah. The Rockets give the Lakers problems, primarily because Shane Battier does a good job making Kobe take tough shots and getting him tired.
Here's your top five playoff PG's:
1. CP3
2. TP9
3. DW8
4. CB1
5. RA12
Notice that a certain Sun, SN13, is missing from the list. Like I said all along, he's no longer as effective as he used to be because age has caught up with him. Plus he is one of the worst defensive point guards to begin with. He proved in the S.A. series that he is just about done, just like Shaquille O'Neal.
ATTITUDE70: Nelson is just getting started... I hope. I agree with you about Orlando. If they keep it up, they could give Detroit fits in the second round and possibly take them to seven games.
The Lakers have the ability to sweep the Jazz. Keep this in mind. L.A went 3-1 against Utah, and Pau Gasol played in none of those games.
NBAISTHEWORST: "You are so wrong about the Pistons."
Rudy T. once said, "Never underestimate the heart of a champion."
The Pistons just blew out the Sixers and have controlled the last five quarters, therefore capturing all momentum in this series.
The veteran Detroit team will not underestimate the Magic because common basketball sense says so. In fact, this next series against Orlando will bring out the best in the Pistons. You'll see.
TCBDOG: I agree strongly about V-Rad. He did a commendable job on Melo. But I'd like to see his defensive play pick up his offense. He needs to be a threat on the offensive end to keep opposing defenses honest.
Interesting that the Thuggets were watching the NFL Draft. Goes to show you how little control Karl has over his players.
You know, I'm beginning to feel the same way as you do about the Rockets. I'm pulling for T-Mac.
I like the idea about the All-Star game determining home-court in the Finals, but I doubt that the Commish would go for it just because it's been the same way for a very long time. And in the NBA you've got more teams fighting for playoff positioning than you do in baseball, thus making team record all the more important in determining who gets home court and who doesn't.
WRZLT: You may be right. Chandler probably will guard Duncan instead of West. If Tyson does, he will be in foul trouble every game and that will end up really hurting the Hornets.
UC IRVINE graduate and proud to be an ANTEATER. My claim to fame is having played against the likes of Tayshaun and Tommie Prince, Jacque Vaughn, and Charles O'Bannon, plus getting dunked on by Schea Cotton in a CIF second round match in the nineties.
WIDELY KNOWN on FOX as one of the most biased LAKER HOMERS in blog history, highly criticized for hating on the PHOENIX SUNS fan base, and has been told on more than one occasion that LAMAR ODOM isn't worth the suit he's wearing.
Believe that "excellence is not an act but a habit."
Believe that the things you do and the things you don't do, they all send a message.
Believe that in order to know the world one must first know thyself.
And believe that it's the journey not the destination.
Finally, as the great Bruce Lee once said, "Man - he is constantly growing and when he is bound by a set pattern of ideas or way of doing things, that's when he stops growing."
This is the Way of the Dragon. Embrace it.
