Hey guys, this might be my last post of the competition, so please read and think about it. I think it's an interesting topic and part of me thinks it could happen. Enjoy reading and thanks for everyone who's ever read my blog. Thanks a lot, and good luck in the competition.
When Bill James, baseball analyst and statistics guru, wrote The Bill James Baseball Abstract in 1977, not many people listened to him or care what he had to say.After all, how much can statistics really tell you?Many general managers, coaches, and scouts of that time simply watch a player and look at his skills, often ignoring the statistics he put up (for the most part).After Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane used statistics developed by James to scout players and built winning teams with those players, people really began to care about what James had to say and accepted these facts into their baseball world.
But a while back, I began to wonder: Could sabermetric type stats be developed and used in the NFL to identify talent?
Any baseball fan knows what I’m talking about: stats developed in the past 30 years that are not the normal stats you see every day.Statistics the box score does not have: win shares, runs created, and total player rating are just three sabermetric statistics, and there’s a lot more.
Could people develop some statistics to judge the overall worth of a defensive back, a linebacker, a running back, and a defensive lineman?Is it possible?If these stats were developed, would coaches and general managers use them to scout and eventually draft players?
The problem with statistics like these is actually rather simple: football is not baseball.Baseball is a game thrown pitch by pitch.Runs can be generated only one way, rounding the bases before the third out is made.Football, on the other hand, is a game where plays are executed and things happen you never expect to.There is no formula to score a touchdown: a 99 yard run, a 4 yard pass, and a punt returned for a touchdown are all worth six points.A field goal from any distance is worth 3 points. Plays break down, stuff happens that should not happen, and the game is unpredictable.On top of that, there is no definitive statistic-accumulating organization.At the end of a season, different websites may list different statistics for the same player (tackles are a tough one to judge).Some statistics are hard to find and not even charted at all.
But if there was some way that statistics could be organized and accepted as true, could different sabermetric stats be developed?I thought about it a few months ago and tried to develop a formula for defensive backs but realized it was too hard, considering football stats are rather hard to gather (I have a link if anyone is interested in what I originally came up with, comment and I’ll post it).
KC Joyner, The Football Scientist, created the thought in my mind.He went out trying to find out why players ran for the yards they did or passed the way they did.If you could exploit weaknesses in players with the use of statistics, how much would that help you?If you knew that a cornerback was much more vulnerable to the long pass than the short pass, how often would you try to exploit him?
Billy Beane used sabermetric statistics to find players no one else wanted, players no one thought could ever be good.If a NFL general manager could use sabermetric statistics to draft players who were low on draft boards, how much would that change football? Could it be done knowing the chaotic nature of football?
As always, comments/criticisms/suggestions are welcomed.
You mentioned you were going to do something with stats but found football stats hard to come by... SO TRUE! I was working on something for a blog that I thought would be pretty damn interesting... until I realized I just couldn't find the stats and info I needed ANYWHERE! So frustrating. Love all your blogs man. Good luck to you, although you don't need it.
Tiki: I understand sabermetrics, I look at the numbers, and sometimes even use them to analyze what went right or wrong with the blasted M's in a particular year (though Billy Beane I am NOT, nor would I want to be, and he is probably the king of sabermetrics nowadays). But, being a health care quality manager and number cruncher by profession, I can tell you a few things about numbers. They are cold, they don't breathe, and they can be easily manipulated to tell a particular story if you want them to be. Could sabermetrics be applied to football? Probably, with a lot of work by actuaries and predictive statisticians. Would it make the game any more enjoyable or meaningful? I'll leave that to you to decide.
True, they are cold, but are sabermetrics as cold as other stats?
I'll take one from baseball: WHIP (walks and hits per inning). Pretty good stat I feel, how can you manipulate that one? I think some stats are better than others, but there are some good ones.
The problem is no one monitors half the stats you would need to make a good sabermetric stat.
Being a former pitcher, WHIP is one I actually look at and use. I don't know who would be the best person(s) to do the football stats and you're right, there are a ton of them out there and trying to decide which ones to develop into something like sabermetrics would be tough.
I like the article and it is something I have considered before. But, as you said, there really is no stat-gathering body where one could find a stat like "missed tackles" or "times a defensive lineman beat offensive lineman X to pressure the QB." If there were, I think some organizations would embrace it.
On a side note (and semi-plug) regarding WHIP, I wrote an article on why WHIP is not as strong at judging ability as most think. Just consider how many hits and walks a pitcher surrenders because an error prolonged an inning. WHIP involves all hits and walks, not just those a pitcher should have allowed. Some defenses are better than others, and while that affects WHIP, it does not affect how talented a pitcher is.
True tedoleary, but baseball didn't have one until Stats. Inc. came along. Who knows...it could happen. The only problem is how you judge a tackle and a missed tackle? If you hit a guy, he breaks its but is immediatly hit for the stop, is that a missed tackle or an assist? It's tough to judge.
Agreed, there is bound to be a degree of subjectivity in the analyses. It is similar to differentiating between a line-drive and a fly ball or a hard grounder that first hits the ground near the lip of the infield/outfield grass. However, with some specific groundrules, it still may work.
For instance, a missed tackle could be defined as any defender who, without obstruction from a blocking offensive player, made an attempt to tackle the ball-carrier and failed, even if he slowed the offensive player. In other words, if the defender had a clear opportunity to bring down the ball-carrier and failed, he would earn a missed tackle. Obviously, there would need to be more guidelines, but so long as the evaluator was consistent from defender to defender, I believe the statistic could still prove useful.
Also, wasn't Elias Sports Bureau around before Stats, Inc.? I think Bill James and Co. started Stats, Inc. when Elias Sports Bureau was uncooperative with James' efforts.
Last edited by tedoleary on December 28th at 7:16 PM.
