Few people expected the Hornets to make the playoffs this season, much less contend for the Western Conference's #1 seed.
But Chris Paul led the Hornets to a surprising 56-26 record and the second seed.
Paul and the Hornets made quick work of Jason Kidd and the Mavericks but face a different task altogether with the battle tested Spurs.
I'll take the Spurs in six.
Keys for San Antonio
1. Unleash Bruce Bowen
Bruce still doesn't receive the respect he deserves. Does he cross the line from time to time? Yes, but there isn't a finer perimeter defender in the league.
Bowen will be assigned the unenviable task of slowing down Chris Paul in this series. Bruce has done a fantastic job against Nash the previous two seasons. Expect more of the same in this series.
2. Close out on the Hornets sharpshooters
The Spurs are the smartest team in the league. Their rotations are flawless and they follow Popovich's game plans to a 'T'.
Look for San Antonio to dare Chris Paul to beat them by himself through the opening quarters of the series by staying home on Peja, Pargo, and Mo Pete when Paul gets into the paint. Eliminating the catch and shoot opportunities those players thrive upon.
The Spurs are masters at letting one guy get off for a few quarters and then putting the clamps on him in the 4th quarter. By the time that guy is forced to involve his teammates, they're out of sync and rarely deliver.
4. Stop the Paul-to-Chandler alley-oop
Again, I don't think this will be a problem. Duncan and Kurt Thomas don't have Chandler's athleticism but they're smart enough to put a body on him before he can roll to the basket.
I picked the Mavericks to beat the Hornets because I thought J. Kidd would get the better end of his matchup with Chris Paul. I was wrong. Paul did whatever he wanted against the Mavs.
But the Spurs aren't the Mavs. Instead of playing opposite an over-the-hill Kidd, Paul will be facing off against All-NBA defender Bruce Bowen and asked to defend lighting quick Tony Parker on the other end.
Paul will have to have a monster series for New Orleans to advance.
San Antonio didn't let LeBron James beat them last year.
Excellent analysis. I've sure been impressed with both teams in the first round. Both were clearly superior to the competition.
They split in the regular season, with each losing a home game. The closest match was a 9 point win for the Spurs, the Hornets wins were by 24 and 25 points.
I just haven't seen the Hornets enough to tell if they will be able to be competitive in this big test, and whether the home court advantage is going to be enough for them to shoot well enough to win in seven.
Spurs are certainly going to be favored by just about everyone based on their dissection of the Suns. This could turn into a very enjoyable series...
Last edited by nba is the worst on May 2nd at 4:45 PM.
I think the series will be determined by the Bowen/Paul matchup.
Bruce does a fantastic job on Nash every year and believe it or not, Paul and Nash have similar skills. Definitely similar roles in their offenses.
Paul is a step quicker but both have the ball in their hands 90% of the time and are asked to create for their teammates. Bowen is so active on that end and gets his hands in so many passing lanes.
I think he will really frustrate Paul over the course of the series.
You know, midway through the season I started telling people to watch out for the Hornets. Then later on, I thought maybe the Mavs were getting their ish together, and that they would ultimately edge the Hornets out in six or seven games. Now, that the Hornets have manhandled the Mavs, and that I have seen more of their games, I'm back on their bandwagon.
I expect the Spurs to win because, well, they're the Spurs... but really, I want to say the Hornets can win this series (I'll steer clear of saying it outright, especially after my "Nuggets will beat Lakers in 7" prognostication made me look stupid).
But this Hornets team reminds me much of the Kidd-run Nets teams that made the finals. And that's scary, especially considering the talent on this team is greater than what the Nets had (West over Martin-- no contest).
Paul will get off no matter what. If they put Bowen on him, Bowen will be embarrassed-- he can't check Paul. I think Bowen will be used to take out whichever shooter is on, be it Peja, Peterson or Pargo. But he will not guard Paul. No way Jose. Paul ain't Nash. Nash is garbage without the use of screens. One-on-one, Paul eats people alive.
Hoffman...I have a feeling that Paul will figure out Bowen by game 2 or 3 and be successful in this series. Unfortunately, the Spurs will be too much for the Hornets in the end.
I agree with you Hoff that the Spurs will ultimately win this thing.
The Hornets need to be on. They shoot a lot from the perimeter, and it's enough they hit a cold stretch, they'll get blown out.
Also, defensively, who the heck is gonna guard Ginobili? West and Chandler can slow down Duncan a little. Paul and Pargo can run with Parker. But who can stop Ginobili? Peterson? Eh.
I expect Ginobili to dominate this series.
Next year, Hornets fans, next year. Get some big man depth, and individual defensive terrors, and you're good.
Good post Hoff... but I do disagree with your take on Bowen. Bowen can't check Paul, at all. The bigger, slower guys, Bowen can kill. But the guys who are quick and crafty and have great handle, kill Bowen. Wade always makes Bowen look stupid.
But like I said, Bowen will totally make Peja a non-factor in this series. Ginobili will lock his man too. Duncan will trouble West.
Chris Paul is great, but nobody is THAT good, that he can single-handedly beat the Spurs. And for the Hornets to win, Paul has to be amazing, and his teammates need to be making jumpers.
I second that sentiment but honestly, I'd be surprised if the series goes 6.
I think the Spurs will manhandle the Hornets.
Tyson Chandler had the NBA's second highest shooting percentage this season and it's not because he has any semblance of an offensive game. It's because he gets so many garbage buckets and alley-oop points.
Those buckets won't be available versus San Antonio.
No one on the Hornets can create their own shot which means Paul will shoulder all of the offense.
He's a great player but he's about to find out what championship basketball is all about.
Paul has turned it up a notch for the playoffs while Nash looked very average. Could that be because of Bowen's defense? Paul did quite well against him during the season. We will soon find out...
Both of these teams are so good and so balanced that anything can happen.
You make excellent points HOFF. Bowen can certainly distract Paul a little bit but either way, Paul will get his. If Paul only scores 17, he'll still find a way to dish out 15 dimes. That's 47+ points of production from CP3. And you won't stop him.
But the best way to contain Paul and limit his effectiveness and increase your chances of disrupting him is to make him take tough low percentage shots. And the Spurs are great at doing that to PG's They did it to Nash. They did it last year to D-Williams in the West Finals.
On the flip side, no one from NO will be able to contain Manu, who will probably average 22-25 in the series and get to the foul line at will especially during tight games.
But I think the main difference will be Tim Duncan, as always. Nothing new here folks.
Young Tyson Chandler, young Hilton Armstrong, young Melvin Ely, and even young David West will all have their hands full. Duncan will get ALL the calls. Chandler will be in constant foul trouble for being in the "popcorn machine" and when he's on the bench, CP3 can't do his alley-oop special.
As unfair as it may seem, the young Hornets big men will be on the short end of the stick and that will put so much pressure on CP3 that it will throw off some of that balance.
Another thing... if Peja doesn't shoot above 50% in the series the Hornets will struggle because when Peja is on, they are able to spread the court and CP3 is able to do what he does best. Udoka, Bowen, Barry, and even Finley will do a worthy job frustrating and chasing Stojakovic. Expect Peja to shoot about 40% this series and 30% on three's.
Another difference maker in this series will be the production of both benches.
Who will fare better overall? Pargo, Wells, Mike James, and Julian Wright (who could end up being an X-Factor)? Or Barry, Horry, Udoka, Thomas, Vaughn, and Ginobili? The edge goes to the Spurs only because they've been there done that and they know how to win on the road in the playoffs. Look what they did to PHX in game 3. Nobody expected the Spurs to blow out the Suns except the Spurs.
And let's keep in mind that New Orleans was almost better on the road than they were at home in the regular season.
Advantage: San Antonio. I agree HOFF, Spurs in six.
Nobody's figured out Bruce Bowen. He guards everyone well and he guards everything well. Off ball, penetration, through, over or around screens, and closing out on shooters (though, I hate to see him close out on shooters with his sneaky way of hurting people by sliding his foot under the shooter when they come down). Paul won't be any different. He may end up with double digit assists in a couple of the games, but it'll be because of the few fast breaks the Hornets get, and they won't get that many because the Spurs ALWAYS get back in transition D. I don't know how they do it, but they do. There won't be a whole lot of drive-kickouts for 3's by Paul either because Bowen is not Nash. Paul won't be able to burn Bowen as easily as he did Nash. So I kind of expect the Spurs defenders to already be out on the sharp shooters of New Orleans unless the Hornets want to run the pick and rolls with those other guys but then you're taking the ball out of your best player's hands. High screens maybe, but again, you're taking the ball out of Paul's hands.
I picked the Mavs too, in the last series and the Hornets proved me, and almost everyone else wrong. But I really just don't see them getting past the Spurs. Kidd has never been known for his D, and Dallas isn't that great of a defensive team either. The Spurs can D up almost everyone on the Hornets one-on-one and come with help if they need it too.
And the other thing is Pargo and Bonzi are no match Ginobili, Finley, and the rest of the Spurs' bench. The Spurs can rest and hold leads (and even take the lead at times), the Hornets can't.
Hoffman, I was dead wrong about both of these teams. But I thought that New Orleans was very impressive in their series with the Mavericks.
NO proved to me that they could get it done, and I am going to pick them in 7.
The Spurs do a good job getting back on defense but they do an even better job of taking high percentage shots close to the basket. Which eliminate the long rebounds most teams use to jumpstart their fastbreaks.
That's the beauty of having the greatest power forward of all-time and one of the league's best finishers at point guard.
Doug Collins had a good point about Bruce Bowen. Basically, you can only use Bowen when you are wanting to protect a lead.
If you are fighting from behind you can't play Bowen because he is so ineffective offensively that, even though he might be locking down one of the opponent's players, on the other end of the court Spurs' opponents are guarding the Spurs as if they are playing 5 on 4.
In 5 games against Phoenix, Bowen had 4 points TOTAL. He also had just as many turnovers as he had steals (3).
Plus, Bruce Bowen turns 37 next month. Bowen might be able to harass 34 year old Steve Nash, but Chris Paul is MUCH quicker than Nash. The only thing Bowen is going to do to Paul is send him to the free throw line I'm afraid.
Then again Chris Paul and the Hornets offense force teams to help. If Bowen guards Chris Paul, he is likely to be guarding whoever is setting the pick for Paul, and Bowen has the size and tenacity to make the switch effective for the Spurs.
The Hornets have a good chance against the Spurs because, frankly, the Spurs frequently have a hard time scoring and the Hornets play better defense than the Suns.
The Spurs have a good chance against the Hornets because of coaching, experience, and they match up favorably. Ginobli is better than Peja, Duncan is better than Chandler, Parker vs. Paul is a wash, and the 3 heads of Udoka, Oberto and Bonner can make life very hard for West.
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