Will the Pistons "flip the switch" in this series or will they revert back to their nonchalant play?
Will it matter?
Will this be the year that the championship window that has seemingly been open for the past four seasons slams shut?
I think so.
Keys for Orlando
1. Force feed Dwight Howard.
Rasheed Wallace can't stop him. Neither can Jason Maxiell or Antonio McDyess.
Howard led the NBA in rebounds, double-doubles, was 5th in blocks, and 3rd in field goal percentage this season in establishing himself as the best center in the game.
Detroit doesn't have the kryptonite for 'Superman'.
2. Let Rasheed fire up all the 3-pointers his heart desires
Which shouldn't be too difficult because unfortunately, Sheed prefers to play behind the arc anyways.
With Dwight Howard down low, can you blame him?
Aside from LeBron James, Wallace is the most talented player in the NBA. As he goes, so do the Pistons.
No wonder they suffer from so many mental lapses. 3. Exploit their mismatches
Tayshaun Prince and Richard Hamilton have difficulty defending swingmen with size (LeBron James anyone?). Orlando has two of the most versatile guard/forwards in the league in Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu.
Turkoglu has been a reliable playoff performer since his days with the Kings and I expect him to be a HUGE factor in this series.
The Magic have an advantage in three of the five starting positions (Howard, Hedo, & Lewis).
The Pistons have an advantage at point guard and a deeper bench but Big Shot Billups won't be enough to propel Detroit to a 6th straight conference finals appearance.
Hoffman...as a Magic fan I'm so eager for this series to start! You're right, they HAVE to play an inside out game with the Pistons and let the Pistons' defense dictate whether or not they beat them with the 3pt shot avoiding the double-team or let Howard feast off of the one on one matchup...hoping the Magic can shock the world!
I think you're right, none of the Pistons' bigs can stop Superman, but the problem is they don't really have to worry about foul trouble because (a) The Pistons have those 2 extra bigs so Rasheed doesn't have to guard a lot, therefore not hurting Detroit's offense. (b) That fact that none of the Pistons can stop him anyway so they can just keep sending guys at him and they can play Howard somewhat more physical than Toronto could. Though, if anyone has the build to handle rough play it's Howard. And (c) Howard's only real weakness is foul shooting. So if the Pistons are smart and keep sending guys at him and playing him physical, it shouldn't hurt them too much as far as the risk/reward for foul trouble.
D Howard is such a savage, in actuality probably should have been the DPOY. He had better defensive stats than KG, more rebounds and blocks, though KG was given all the credit for making Boston's team D better, but whatever...
The Magic are scary. Besides the Spurs, simply because they're the Champs and know how to play playoff basketball, The Magic are the only other team that I can honestly say I don't want to see if I want my team to have an easier road to the title...if that makes any sense
If the Pistons don't double team, the Magic better recognize that and keep their defender clear of the paint and keep it a true one on one with Howard and (?whoever?). Rasheed may pass off the Howard duties to McDyess, to avoid technical fouling his way out of the series.
Pistons thrive off their defense so the Magic have to take advantage of every possession and not turn the ball over.
No way the Magic are going to win this series. It might even be a sweep. I'll tell you why.
Remember back in the 2004 NBA Finals when the Pistons let Shaq get his and average 34 pts and focused on suffocating the rest of the Lakers in order to frustrate and beat them up 4 games to 1?
Well, that's about to happen here.
Detroit knows they won't be able to stop Howard from getting his 20-20. But they do know they can use that suffocating defense to frustrate Hedo, Rashard, and the rejuvenated Jameer Nelson.
Prince has always been a defensive specialist and he's proven it in big games. He came up big once again in the Philly series, shutting down the explosive Igoudala in the last three games. Expect Tayshaun to make Hedo Turkoglu take tough shots and limit his effectiveness.
Rashard Lewis has never been a big-time player in the playoffs. The physical Jason Maxiell is a bundle of energy who moves well without the ball and scores a lot of garbage buckets on dunks. Lewis is going to tire himself out on the defensive end and he will consquently shoot the ball poorly from the field.
Antonio McDyess and Sheed will guard Howard in tandem and don't be surprised to see a lot of Walter Herrmann and Theo Ratliff this series employing the Hack-a-Dwight.
The Pistons are nowhere near the defensive team they were in 2004. That team featured multiple Defensive Player of the Year Ben Wallace defending the paint.
Finally, Orlando's bench will be severely outplayed by Detroit's bench. This is the most glaring difference between the two teams.
Jarvis Hayes will have a couple of key games as will Rodney Stuckey. I just don't think that Orlando's guards (Nelson, Arroyo, Dooling, Evans, and Redick) have enough mental toughness to match up and outplay Rip, Chauncey, Stuckey, Hunter, Afflalo, and Dixon). Detroit's guards will totally "D" up the Magic backcourt.
HOFFMAN: Prince is a great team defender. There's no mistaking the fact. If he were overrated, trust me, the Pistons would have gotten rid of him to get Carmelo Anthony.
Ben Wallace was a beast at that time, but the Pistons have done a great job of replacing him by committee (Maxiell, McDyess, Johnson, Herrmann, and Ratliff - all these guys can block shots and defend).
Why do you think they continue to put up 50-win seasons and make the Eastern Finals after his departure?
The system is what made Wallace the great defender that he was. Look what Big Ben did in Washington before he was traded to DET and after in Chicago. He was mediocre until he played in Detroit.
Hoffman, you're disappointing me for underestimating Detroit.
A "middle echelon" squad? Middle echelon in the NBA is Atlanta, Sacramento, Philadelphia, etc. C'mon now, I know you know your basketball better than that. I respect your knowledge a lot but I've got to admit, that was one of the most ridiculous statements I've ever heard. I know you're better than that. Detroit is not #2 in the NBA in defense by accident, let me leave it at that.
And about Big Ben... yes he was on the decline in Chicago. But how do you explain his tenure in Washington, when he was younger and just as physically mature as he was in Detroit.
I'm telling you, it's the system. Just like in San Antonio, where you can plug in a Fabricio Oberto and immediately produce a darn good player who can make a positive impact on your team.
Joe Dumars and staff has this "Bad Boy" mentality in place at Auburn Hills. And that's why the Pistons continue to play deep in the playoffs every year.
Boston scares me some too, but let's just say the Lakers win their next series and then beat the Spurs (or the Hornets). I'd rather see Boston than Orlando in the Finals and not just for nostalgia. I know it sounds odd, but it's just a feeling. The Gasol/Howard match-up is worse for the Lakers than than the Gasol/Garnett (or Perkins) match-up. Orlando is more dangerous to the Lakers, I think. Especially considering the way the Lakers gave up all those offensive rebounds in the 1st round...
JDIZZLE...Pistons sweep the Magic??? Give my team a little credit. Prince is a beast on defense, I got that. But he can't guard Lewis and Turkoglo, all the while Howard is being guarded by one player...something's got to give there?? They can't all have bad games at one time. The Magic will be more competitive than you think.
LOL Dizz, I know, but like I said, it's just a feeling. I think Orlando wins this series and then gives Boston a run. If ATL can do it, Orlando can definitely do it.
Speaking of Hoffman, it looks like we MAY have to wait for your analysis of the other Eastern Semi, if ATL keeps this up...
ATTITUDE70: I said it might be a sweep. My actual prediction is DET in five.
I don't want you to think I have no respect for Orlando. I like where they're heading. They're a solid squad with a terrific franchise player. But I don't believe they have the balance that is needed to get past the veteran Pistons.
Moreover, I am not convinced the Magic has a superb defense. Dwight is your only impact player on defense.
And keep in mind that it's not about who is guarding who in this series. It will be about team defense and who's better at helping the helper in this series.
Think about it. Chauncey will need to be double-teamed when he takes Nelson to the post. Rasheed will need to be doubled unless Howard is guarding him. Rip is going to get a myriad of picks and screens to free up his midrange game, so how will Orlando's defense react?
The Pistons are excellent at help defense and defensive rotations. Orlando needs to prove that to me first before I am convinced.
JDIZZLE...for you to say sweep or over in 5 just alarms me as a Magic fan. I have to defend my team. I know the Pistons will be tough to defend, but their backcourt advantage is a wash with the advantage Howard has on their frontcourt. (I just witnessed Pierce foul out as the Celtics are losing!) that's why I feel it will be a battle because Howard is not a selfish player so if he's not scoring, he won't force anything.
Nelson has stepped his game up, so has Lewis, Evans has been good as well. The Magic have weapons for the Pistons to consider too....
ATTITUDE70: I agree with you. The Magic has weapons.
In fact, if Jameer Nelson keeps up his great play he could be a problem for Detroit. And former Piston Mo Evans will have a score to settle as well.
But like I said, the difference will be on defense. I believe Detroit will dictate the tempo of this series no matter what Dwight does.
It will be low scoring, and if it turns out that way Detroit wins. In order for the Magic to win, they have to turn it into a high scoring affair. They have to run the Pistons out of the gym, but I just don't see that happening because Stan Van Gundy is not that type of coach.
Hoffman, I usually think your on point. But this time I have to disagree.
Howard will get monster numbers, of that I have no doubt, but I don't see Rasheed guarding him in this series. I think Howard will get a steady diet of McDyess and Maxiel with the closest player doubling down on him.
Now this could be a great benefit to the Magic as they are a 3 point shooting team. I acknowledge that much, but I don't see the Magic as mentally ready to make those shots in the 4th quarter.
I agree that Rasheed is the most talented player on the team, but the players that are playing the best for the Pistons are Prince and Billups. I think Prince will shut down Turkoglu and Billips will dominate Jameer Nelson.
The key matchup will be Rasheed Wallace on Rashard Lewis. I think Lewis is capable of driving on Rasheed, but I think he will be content to shoot jumpers and I am not yet convinced he can make them in prime time. On the other end I expect Howard to cover Rasheed in the post, but this could prove costly in terms of putting Howard into foul trouble.
If Lewis is guarding Rasheed in the post he will be taken to school.
I think the edge goes to Detroit with the bench, and they do have home court advantage.
While Detroit is vulnerable and their focus is soft, I don't think the Magic can sustain the type of play to take the heart out of them. I have to go with Detroit in 7.
Dizzle, I agree with your Boston assesment, but the magic did split the season series with Detroit, and frankly, they should have played Philly the way they did in the last three games the entire series. Rasheed could negate the clear advnatage Dwight has by going in the paint, but he treats it like it has poisonous snakes in there. And Maxiell isn't used to defending the perimeter, where Lewis and hedo roam. I think the series will go 6 or 7, and Orlando can win the series. They only need one at the Palace to get homecourt advantage, and Detroit could come out lax after the ease of the last three games.
By the way, Hoffman, nice use of my post title from ballblogger to start things off!
HOFFMAN, You must not watch to much Basketball, because your assumption of prince overated has to be the worst comment ever posted. Time after time he guards the so called best player and gets it done. I supposed you think Dumars was overated for his time too. Get real, plus i am a orlando fan, and he has given us problems this year, last year. So do your homework man, he is true
McDyess doesn't have the size to defend Howard. He'll put up 40 a game versus Antonio.
I don't think Rasheed has the lateral quickness to defend Lewis.
Prince is an above average defender but only because of his length. He can cause problems for guys like Kobe because he has a size advantage but Hedo is bigger than he is.
Its tough to pick against the Dwight Howard and the Magic, but here are my reasons why I am GOING to:
1. They are NOTHING if Howard gets into foul trouble
2. Jameer Nelson BLOWS...there is nothing clutch about him
3. Hedo will be locked down by Prince (and please don't compare Hedo to LeBron by mentioning last year's con. finals...)
4. Lewis tends to disappear A LOT
5. Orlando has less bench talent
6. Detroit has the experience AND the home court... look no further than the Atlanta-Boston series to see how important HOME COURT is!!
I didn't compare Hedo to LeBron other than to point out their size. Each is bigger than Prince, which takes away from his biggest defensive strength: his length.
I love basketball. While many basketball fans enjoy the month of March, I prefer the months of April, May, and June. I look forward to productive chats, heated debates, and honest opinions.
