This IS the greatest NBA season ever and the playoffs haven’t even begun. I’m not ready to predict an NBA champion but with 2 months left in the regular reason, it's time to separate the contenders from the pretenders.
Contenders
1. San Antonio Spurs - the media is focused on the Lakers, Suns, Pistons, and Celtics. With their victory over the Hawks, the Spurs have won 6 in a row, 9 of their last 10. Coach Greg Popovich is a master at making sure his team peaks for the playoffs. San Antonio doesn't play for a high playoff seed, they play for NBA championships. With four championships in the past 10 years, who's going to argue with Popovich’s methods?
I've said it before and I'll say it again; if Tim Duncan shot the ball 26 times a game, TD would win MVP and lead the league in scoring each year.
Only 3 players have scored more than 40 points on multiple occasions this season -- Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, and Manu Ginobili. Any team with hopes of dethroning the defending champion Spurs had better have a plan to contain one of the greatest winners in the history of basketball.
2. Los Angeles Lakers - the addition of Pau Gasol vaulted the Lakers past the Suns, Mavs, and Jazz in the West. Gasol's ability to play in the post and hit the mid range jumper has allowed him to seamlessly fit into the triangle offense. LA has won 9 straight and Gasol & Kobe Bryant have become a deadly duo on the pick-and-roll. Pau will also take pressure off Andrew Bynum when he returns in late March.
Lamar Odom seems to have found his niche since Gasol's arrival. Lamar is averaging 17 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 assists over the last 5 games, while shooting 60% from the field. It's scary to think how good the Lakers could be when Bynum returns and a player as talented as Lamar Odom is demoted to the 4th option.
3. Utah Jazz - the Jazz are another team that seems to be flying under the radar. They are 8-3 over their past 11 games. Deron Williams is a steady playmaker. He will remain my pick in the debate between he and Chris Paul until Paul gets it done in the postseason. Carlos Boozer is one of the top 5 power forwards in the game. Andrei Kirilenko is a defensive stopper. Paul Milsap and Ronnie Brewer provide solid contributions.
The Jazz are as complete a team as there is in the league. They advanced to the Western Conference Finals last season and are primed for a return trip to the mountaintop.
4. Boston Celtics - despite losing three games in a row (their longest streak of the season), the Celtics remain the Eastern Conference’s top team. Led by Kevin Garnett (my preseason pick as MVP) the Celtics own a league best record of 43-12. Many 'experts' questioned whether the Celtics would be able to defend this season. Boston has answered those questions by holding their opponents to 90.5 ppg.
Holding on to the #1 seed in the East is key to Boston's championship hopes. Nipping at their heels for the Eastern Conference's best record - the Detroit Pistons.
5. Detroit Pistons - after 5 consecutive trips to the Eastern Conference Finals and only 1 NBA championship to show for their efforts; I was ready to count Detroit out this year. But the Pistons just won't go away. The Pistons are 8-2 over their past 10 games and are holding their opponents to 90.28 ppg.
Their bench, a weak spot in the past, has been bolstered by rookie guards Rodney Stuckey and Aaron Afflalo and second year forwards Amir Johnson and Jason Maxiell. Cleveland remains Detroit's achilles heel. Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince are too frail to defend the King. Half the battle is believing you can win and Cleveland doesn't fear Detroit. I can't see myself picking the Pistons over the Cavs again, but if they can manage to secure the # 1 seed in the East, and Boston defeats Cleveland; the Pistons are capable of advancing to the NBA Finals where anything can happen.
Pretenders
1. Phoenix Suns – it’s no secret that I believe the Suns are worse defensively with Shaquille O’Neal. Phoenix has allowed 110 + points in 3 of the 4 games since Shaq’s arrival. They gave up 113 to the lowly Memphis Grizzlies last night. Memphis played most of the night without a center and went straight at O’Neal. Rudy #### had a career-high 38 points.
D’Antoni went back to his small ball lineup and put up 37 points in the 4th quarter – with Shaq watching – to help Phoenix avoid another embarrassing loss. Steve Nash was forced to play 40 minutes, the entire 4th quarter, to get the W. Phoenix will not be able to outscore their opponents in the playoffs...if they can get there.
2. Dallas Mavericks – the Mavericks are a better team with Jason Kidd. Kidd has 45 assists in his first 4 games with the team that drafted him. Dirk Nowitzki is averaging 23 points on the season but has scored 31, 27, 29, & 29 points since Kidd’s arrival. Dallas is getting out on the break like never before and their half-court sets have been infused with motion.
I don’t think Dallas can win a championship without a low-post scorer but I would love to watch Kidd & Nash go at it for 7 games.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers – the Eastern Conference is monumentally weak. Forget last week’s trade that brought Ben Wallace, Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West, & Joe Smith to Cleveland. With MVP LeBron James, the Cavaliers are capable of winning the East. Playoff basketball is all about matchups. Unfortunately, they don’t match up well with any of the Western Conference contenders.
Cleveland is capable of beating the Pistons again. The only team that stands in the way of a repeat trip to the NBA Finals is the Boston Celtics.
What separates the contenders from the pretenders? Team defense and interior scoring.
5 contenders. 3 pretenders. The NBA playoffs are a three month test of will and fortitude. Any team can get hot for four consecutive games. This year’s NBA Champion will consistently prove their basketball superiority. They will rise to the occasion and perform like champions.
Utah Jazz lose to the Timberwolves by eleven last night.
Although their home record is excellent, they are quite poor on the road, 12-18 with losses to the Heat,Clippers, and Knicks among the lowlights.
No team with this bad of a road record can be a contender IMO. In contrast, "pretender" Cleveland is 15-15. I probably don't need to remind you that they beat the Lakers and Celtics twice each this year.
Just which team is the pretender?
Last edited by nba is the worst on February 27th at 10:17 AM.
I stand by my contention that Utah is a legit contender. They have it all; interior scoring, team defense, a steady playmaker, outside shooting, and a solid bench.
I'm really impressed by their play this season.
One of Cleveland's victories over LA was without Bynum or Gasol.
Boston and Cleveland play tonight. Both have a full-lineup. We'll see what happens.
Last edited by Hoffman on February 27th at 10:22 AM.
While I respect your opinion, it doesn't make sense. Since the Jazz probably will not have a good enough record to get a home court advantage past the 1st round in the playoffs, the ability to win on the road is critical for them to contend. Without the ability to beat playoff teams on the road, they are the definition of "pretender".
Utah has struggled on the road. There's no denying that but they've become a different team since they acquired Kyle Korver.
They are 20-5 since they traded for Korver. I'll admit, only 6 of those victories have come away from home but I think they've turned the corner on the season.
I've said all year that SA is the team to beat. The Lakers have the pieces in place, but that unit hasn't played when the pressure is on the line in the playoffs. And all the moves out West were done (I think) to counter Duncan's dominance. I am worried about them not having home court in the playoffs, but Houston did it in 1995, and if any team can do it, it's the Spurs. Great post.
Thanks. I'm a HUGE fan of the San Antonio Spurs organization. I really believe anyone with hopes of defeating the Spurs will have to stop Manu. That's why I was in favor of the Lakers acquiring Artest the past couple of seasons. With Gasol & Bynum and a very deep bench, that may not be necessary any longer.
Kobe is capable of putting the clamps on Manu. It all depends upon how much energy he has to devote on offense. I'd love to see the Spurs and new look Lakers in a 7 game series.
Last edited by Hoffman on February 27th at 10:42 AM.
Utah is 5-5 on the road since getting Korver. Out of those wins, they have only beaten two teams with a winning record, the Rockets and the Nuggets. They have to play the Hornets twice, the Celts, Mavs, Spurs, and Suns on the road, and the Pistons, Rockets, Lakers, Spurs, and Nuggets at home.
Hoffman
The one team that I'd been watching closely of late had been the Rockets. Now with the loss Yao Ming I don't believe that they'll do much. McGrady can't lead this team and if anything if they're to be reliant on him they won't amount to much at all. He doesn't possess the heart to lead this team at all. All show and no substance !
Wow. Maybe we'll just have to agree to disagree my friend.
Since when is winning 50-52 games a BAD thing? Oh yeah, a 50 win team in the West will likely miss the playoffs.
Consider this though, the Jazz are 21-14 in conference play. The Spurs are 21-13. The Lakers are 23-8. Utah can play with anyone in the West over 7 games.
The Rockets certainly responded last night. I can tell you this, the Nuggets and Warriors benefited greatly from that injury. One of the two would have missed the playoffs. Now, both will likely make it.
First of all, let me say that Utah #### and they will not win a championship, they can't win on the road so unless they get the number 1 seed and I highly doubt they will, they have to go on the road. Secondly, Hoffman, I can't believe you gave up on the Rockets but I guess thats how it is. You must be from Houston and oh by the way, Denver has been losing every other day. I personally will believe until there out and not a day sooner. Nothing like good old Fair Weather fans.
Houston is a very good defensive team. If they can sustain their effort on defense without Yao's presence in the middle, they have a shot at the playoffs.
I haven't given up on them. I just think Denver & GS are better equipped for a playoff push. Even if Houston makes the playoffs without Yao, they won't be championship contenders.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Utah win game 7 of their series with Houston on the road?
The Jazz are a better basketball team than they were last year.
Last edited by Hoffman on February 27th at 11:05 AM.
I didn't say they would meet Houston on the road, besides, that was last year. What I am saying is that soon as the Jazz lose homecourt, it's over for them, unless the Lakers, Suns and Spurs all fall before they meet them. By the way, Denver has been in a tailspin for the last two weeks.
I don't think the Nuggets are contenders either. But I'll take the Jazz against anyone besides the Lakers and Spurs in the West. If they can manage to come out of the West, they can beat the Celtics, Pistons, or Cavs for the title.
True, as long as they have homecourt. You must understand, they had a very bad road lost to team they should have beaten. Maybe they would have if they where home. I believe it was the T-Wolves. Thats pretty bad and they didn't just win, they took them to the wood shed which happens to them when there on the road. The numbers don't lie
I understand what you're saying and you have a valid argument. That doesn't change my opinion that the Jazz are contenders though. This is a road tested playoff team which advanced to the Western Conference Finals last season. They won back-to-back elimination games against the Rockets too.
I'll take a playoff proven team with a great point guard over a team that excels on the road during the regular season any day.
I feel it's rare to find a contender thats sub .500 on the road. I don't think, no strike that, I know they won't beat the Spurs or the Lakers. They will have to go on the road and thats just the way it is. Even though I don't like them, I won't take anything from them. They are a great team, in Utah. On the road, it's an entirely different story. There is no way you can get around that. It is what it is.
So much talk about the Jazz being contenders. I think everyone is entitled to their opinion since it's only that and nothing more at this point. IMO, even if they do manage to go past the Spurs and Lakers, they will not go past Detroit or Boston...especially Detroit. If you want to talk about a playoff tested team and give due merit to that, they rate far below Detroit. Boston has yet to show their mettle in the post season so it's anyone's guess.
I stand by my contention that Utah is a legit contender. They have it all; interior scoring, team defense, a steady playmaker, outside shooting, and a solid bench.
I'm really impressed by their play this season.
One of Cleveland's victories over LA was without Bynum or Gasol.
Boston and Cleveland play tonight. Both have a full-lineup. We'll see what happens.
Last edited by Hoffman on February 27th at 10:22 AM.
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so you consider the cavaliers without daniel gibson or sasha pavlovic to be at full strength?
Obviously, not all of my predictions have come true. No one is perfect.
Here's my COMPLETE list of what I thought would be the top ten teams this year:
1. Phoenix Suns - will be playing with a chip on their shoulder from the season opener...
2. San Antonio Spurs - it's difficult to predict against the greatest power forward of all-time but it's even more difficult to repeat.
3. Boston Celtics - Paul Pierce advanced to the East Finals with Antoine Walker. KG made it to the West Finals with Cassell and Sprewell. Boston will return to prominence.
4. Denver Nuggets - old habits are hard to break but it's time for AI to assume the role of fascilitator and play second fiddle to Melo. Denver's success will ride on Nene's committment. He's one of the most talented pivotmen in the league and defended Duncan better than anyone in last year's playoffs.
5. Dallas Mavericks - Dallas will have a good regular season followed by another early exit out of the playoffs. Every team in the league thinks they can beat the Mavericks now.
6. Utah Jazz
Last edited by Hoffman on February 27th at 12:30 PM.
6. Utah Jazz - great coach, great defense. Utah will sorely miss Derek Fisher.
7. Chicago Bulls - if they can fetch Kobe or a low post scorer, they'll catapult themselves into the top 4 teams in the league.
8. Houston Rockets - enough talent to win the championship. How badly to Tracy and Yao want to get to the next level?
9. Detroit Pistons - solid core of veterans. Weak psyche. Flip Saunders will be a memory by next season.
10. Los Angeles Lakers - the team that began last season 26-14 was no fluke. Unfortunately, injuries took their toll.
- Obviously, I was wrong about Denver & Chicago but everything else looks fairly accurate. Unfortunately for Phoenix, they traded for Shaq.
Who else had LA in their top 10? Don't forget, the Lakers were playing very well BEFORE they got Gasol.
Last edited by Hoffman on February 27th at 12:39 PM.
I know you're gonna' bring up the fact that I predicted Kobe as DPOY too so don't forget this little passage either:
Defensive Player of the Year - Kobe Bryant
Bryant took a lot of heat last season for his apparent lapse in effort on the defensive side of the ball. Phil Jackson even categorized his selection to the All-NBA fist defensive team as "ceremonial." Kobe set the tone for Team USA over the summer. He has the skills and desire to be the league's best perimeter defender. It will come down to how much effort he is forced to exhert on the offensive end.
If the Lakers can manage to stay healthy and win 50 games, Kobe will win MVP too. Think MJ's 87-88 season.
*** If the Lakers can manage to stay healthy and win 50 games, Kobe will win MVP too. ***
Hey Hoff... I was definitely thinking about this stuff but I just don't have the time to post anymore. But it's definitely time to start talking about pretender/contender stuff.
I don't know, man. This whole thing is so up for grabs that I wouldn't be surprised if the damn Hawks won the NBA title. I'm kidding. But who's for real? Every team has looked so beatable on so many occasions.
I tell you who won't win the NBA title: Warriors (erratic, no defense, no inside presence), Rockets (no inside presence, rely too heavily on outside jumper), Wizards (wild and inefficient), Raptors (way too soft, injury-prone, guards can't defend), Magic (rely too much on outside shooting, no leader to handle the ball in crunchtime, questionable defense), Nets (no heart, no defense, no big man), Sixers (come on).
The Pistons barely go 7-deep and have young and inexperienced guys on the bench. The Suns are shallow too, can't play D, and have trouble executing in the half court. The Nuggets have all the pieces but are too erratic. The Jazz turn the ball over way too easily, but are otherwise pretty sound. The Lakers have looked amazing but still, are we convinced they're for real? The Hornets are starting to fade, but they still have CP3.
I don't know... up for grabs more so than it has ever been in the past. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Spurs lose in the first round to Denver or Golden State. The Spurs are old and thin.
Well, I was 10-5 for playoff predictions last year. I predicted the Spurs would win it before the season. I predicted the Heat would fall hard from their 2006 NBA championship before last season began (which you gave me credit for on a previous blog). I predicted Marion would be traded before Boris Diaw. I predicted Kobe Bryant would remain with the Lakers this summer and said the Lakers were capable of winning 50 games when everyone thought I was crazy.
I'm predicting the Suns to struggle when some feel Shaq will deliver a championship.
I was wrong about the Cavs against the Nets & Pistons last year and the Bulls this year, which you love to bring up. What else?
I'm not saying there isn't more. I don't get every prediction correct. That's impossible, but I do believe I'm right more than I'm wrong.
My blog consists of more than Spurs, Lakers, and Bulls "love" too.
Lol.
I appreciate your advice on what I need to do to find "success." But if it's all the same, I'd prefer you stuck to the subject at hand and let me know what you think of the Contender & Pretender list on this blog.
Thank you.
Last edited by Hoffman on February 27th at 12:57 PM.
I think the champ will come from one of these six teams:
Celtics, Cavs, Spurs, Jazz, Mavs, Nuggets.
All of these teams can play defense and execute in the half court well enough to always stay in games. They all have size, veterans, depth, leaders, crunchtime performers, and at least one major player who has played in the Finals (except for the Jazz).
The other teams are just too weird. Detroit's bench really worries me. The Lakers I feel are just too green. I feel like they can win it all next year or the year after, but not this year. The transformation isn't complete yet. New Orleans is starting to come undone. Forget Houston after Yao went down.
Celtics, Cavs, Spurs, Jazz, Mavs, Nuggets. Those are the teams I'm keeping my eye on. The Pistons are right there, as well, but I just don't see it. If they couldn't pull it off last year, what should make us think they can this year when nothing much has changed?
you will find mad love for the lakers, spurs, and bulls.
and you will find every possible way to detract from the accomplishments of lebron james and the cleveland cavaliers.
it's not interpretation. it's fact.
why when you speak of boston, detroit, or chicago you never feel the need to through in the fact that they play in the "weak eastern conference" the way you often times do with the cleveland cavaliers?
i'll tell you why. because you hate cleveland. and that's ok. that's your prerogative.
i just want you to be aware of the reality of the situation.
Solid predictions. As you know, it's all about matchups. I think the Pistons match up better with the Celtics than they do the Cavs. That doesn't mean I think the Cavs are better than the Celtics.
One difference between this Detroit team from year's past is their bench. I really like their two second year forwards.
I don't think the Nuggets have a chance. They have one player who plays defense (Camby). He'll probably win DPOY but that isn't enough to win a championship. I thought before the season that Nene was their wild card. He's extremely talented but he's been dealt a lot of injuries over the past couple of years. Now he's battling cancer. The guy can't catch a break.
The Mavs...if Kidd can transform Dirk into more of a low-post scorer...they have a shot.
I don't hate Cleveland. You know how I feel about the disparity between the Eastern & Western Conferences. I discussed this in one of my very first blogs here at Foxsports. Go ahead and take a look in my archives - December of 2006 - I suggested the NBA change the playoff structure.
I have a problem with the fact that a team that wasn't one of the top 5 teams in the NBA advanced to the Finals last year. It could have been Cleveland or it could have been Toronto. It doesn't matter to me. I gave credit to LeBron's performance against Detroit. I said his game 4 or 5 performance was the best individual performance I have ever seen in the playoffs.
I give credit to Cleveland for taking advantage of the path that was before them last year. They beat every team in the East to get to the Finals.
I would give LeBron James my vote as the NBA's MVP this year.
But the fact of the matter is that in the grand scheme of the NBA and "looking outside the box", the Cavs are not one of the top teams in the NBA and they weren't last year either.
Currently they stand with a 32-25 record. .561 winning percentage. You know where they would be in the West right now? I'll tell you. 10th place and fighting for their playoff lives. The Pistons and Celtics own the top records in the league and if they advance to the Finals, they will match up better with any of the West's powerhouses.
That is the "reality" of the situation.
Last edited by Hoffman on February 27th at 1:16 PM.
You probably watch Denver more than I do so I have to take your word for it. However, you've seen Denver tighten up on D before, right? I mean, they may not do it often, but I've seen Denver's half-court D get pretty tough in close situations where Iverson and Melo decide to put all of their energies into getting a stop. When they bring in Najera and Smith... they can get a little tough, no?
Can they sustain that effort over the course of the game, no. Do they defend like the Spurs? No. But I feel I've seen them lock it down before. Tell me if I'm wrong here.
I'm really intrigued by the Mavs. Veteran team. Great leader at the point. Superstar in Dirk who can shoot. Tremendous clutch guy in Terry. Jack-of-all-trades forward in Howard. Vet scorer in Stackhouse off the bench. Big body in Dampier. They're coming off last year's disappointment. I'm really intrigued by this team. I wouldn't want to face them especially if they get home court advantage.
Yeah, you're right though about the Nuggets being the weakest link out of the teams I mentioned. I've seen them be so good at times though. Terribly erratic.
Amir Johnson, Jason Maxiell and Rodney Stuckey are all promising... but man, come on, these are the NBA PLAYOFFS!!! LOL. Would you want a bench like that? Definitely not ideal. Who knows, they might surprise.
Currently they stand with a 32-25 record. .561 winning percentage. You know where they would be in the West right now? I'll tell you. 10th place and fighting for their playoff lives. The Pistons and Celtics own the top records in the league and if they advance to the Finals, they will match up better with any of the West's powerhouses.
That is the "reality" of the situation.
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WOULD!!!!!!!!
IF!!!!!!!
don't belong grouped together with the word REALITY!!! iffman.
if money grew on trees we'd all be rich.
if pigs could fly it would your ham sandwich would be alot more expensive.
I watch Denver all the time. I try to go to as many games as I can too. I felt they were ready to take that next step when I made my predictions this year but I felt that step was dependent upon two things:
1. Iverson assuming the role of point guard and taking a back seat to Melo (who I regard as the most pure scorer in the game).
2. Nene becoming the player he's capable of becoming.
Neither of those things have happened. I honestly believe the Nuggets were better off with Andre Miller. I think Iverson is stunting Carmelo's growth.
I REALLY want to see the Mavs and Suns in the playoffs. I'll take the Mavs in 7.
Last edited by Hoffman on February 27th at 1:30 PM.
Brother, if there's just one thing about you I could change, I swear it would be your tendency to put value on the regular season.
You said it bothered you that the Cavs weren't one of the five best teams in the league but yet they managed to reach the Finals.
Who says they weren't one of the five best? What proof of that do you have?
Their win-loss record?
Repeat after me: "the regular season means nothing."
The Jazz don't have one of the top five records right now. But they're like 20-5 since the Korver trade. What matters most, their overall standing, or their current standing? Are you playing a 16-16 quality team, or a 20-5 quality team?
I don't get into the whole East-West thing. We cannot say with any certainty that a team like the Raptors wouldn't manhandle a team like the Mavs in the playoffs. We just look at the win-loss records and assume something, but the truth is they tell us very little.
You know this, man. You said. "It's all about the matchups."
Forget the records. A .500 team in the East could beat a .650 team in the West. Who won? The better team. The record should be ignored. The matchups shouldn't.
You're right. I said it's all about matchups and it is. It's my OPINION that the Cavs wouldn't have defeated any of the Western Conference playoff teams last year...other than my favorite team, the Los Angeles Lakers.
Denver, Phoenix, and Utah won at least one game against the Spurs. Do you think last year's Cavs could have beaten any of those 3 teams? I definitely don't.
You know as well as I do that the West is the superior conference. I was calling for a change to the playoff structure before it became mainstream.
Carmelo Anthony can do it all. He can post up, go left or right, finish at the basket, hit the mid-range jumper, and his range extends to the 3-point line. Melo averages 20 shots a game. Iverson shoots 19 times a game. Both are in the top 4 in scoring.
Give Carmelo 4-5 more field goal attempts and leads the league in scoring every season. Remember, this is coming from a Lakers and Kobe fan too.
I guess you can say you stepped on some toes but I do believe every man deserves an opinion so keep on supporting the Jazz, Lakers, Spurs, Nuggets and whomever else. One of them are bound to win.
You know I've never been high on the Suns, especially Nash. I think the Cavs could have taken them to a Game Seven.
I think the West is better than the East is this popular and obvious analysis that has zero backing. I think in the Chris Webber Kings' years, maybe it was a bit more true, but not so in recent years.
A team like the Miami Heat was killed by injuries. They have ten wins, sure, but don't tell me they can't beat the Kings (26 wins), Blazers (29 wins) or even Warriors (34 wins).
It's not as simple as just looking at the records. Yes I know a .500 team in the East wouldn't make the playoffs in the West, but did it ever occur to you that a .500 team in the East could be a .550 team if it were in the West? There are so many intangibles that we just can't look at only the obvious.
This is the modern NBA. Any team can beat any team on any given night.
Ignore the records. How do you know the Lakers haven't played the Clippers, Wolves, Sonics and Grizzlies a combined 12 times, while Portland has faced those four awful teams only a combined 4 times?
People would rave about the AL East because it had the Yankees and Red Sox. Yeah, well, it also had the damn Orioles and Devil Rays. LOL. Meanwhile the teams in the Central has lower overall records, but that division was more competitive (except for the Royals).
With all of the trade frenzy over the past couple of weeks, it's impossible to predict a champion right now. I feel confident that the champion will come from my contenders list. There are some very good basketball teams that I've predicted WON'T win a title. I'll begin to narrow down the contender list over the coming weeks.
I love basketball. While many basketball fans enjoy the month of March, I prefer the months of April, May, and June. I look forward to productive chats, heated debates, and honest opinions.
