A Vodka and Pony Show?

 It was with great surprise on Friday afternoon that I noticed tiny little Fonner Park in Grand Island, Nebraska had made national news and cracked FOXSports main page. A veterinarian at the track has been accused of injecting horses with vodka to calm their pre-race nerves. Y'know, just a little nudge to take the edge off.

As I mentioned on this blog last May, Fonner Park was my home away from home in college, the place where I cut my teeth as a punter and fell in love with the Kentucky Derby via simulcast. But a den of cheats and sharps? Never!

Okay, I'm not really that surprised. If Churchill Downs is the mother church of thoroughbred racing then FON is a drive-thru wedding chapel. They both operate under the same basic rules, but the powers that be are a lot more invested in one over the other. I won't claim that horse racing is corrupt as a whole, but there are literally hundreds of these little "bull rings" throughout the country and it would be naive to think that-- hundreds of miles away from the big money of Kentucky, New York and California--there isn't some sort of foul play afoot some of the time.

When I used to frequent the track, the meet was dominated by two or three jockeys and as many trainers. (Jockey Ken Shino made SportsCenter in 2000 by winning 8 races on a 10-race card.) But with a large portion of the meet made up of four-furlong races for $5K claimers there were quite a few longshot stories as well. With horses that low on the thorougbred pay scale, you constantly had to wonder if everything was on the square and level. Quite simply, there was almost always more financial motivation for a trainer, jockey or owner to win a race than to maintain a horse's health and that's the sad reality of small time horse racing.

Just how cheap are these horses? Well, according to the Omaha World-Herald, the vet in question used Phillips brand vodka on his horses. In Lexington the horses eat better than I do, but in Grand Island, well, they can't even get the good stuff.

Weary Blues from Waitin'

Last night Missouri Valley Conference heavyweight Southern Illinois continued their dominance over Creighton, winning 58-57, marking the Salukis' seventh straight win over the Jays. SIU is the only visiting team to have won two games at the four-year-old Qwest Center and they simply don't lose at home so the odds of Creighton getting this one back are slim to none.

The Valley is still sort of a hot-button issue in college basketball. How good is the conference? Has it grown to the point where the selection committee will recognize its depth and reward the teams who finish in the top third like they do with the major conferences? The MVC resume is again worthy with a lofty RPI and some big non-conference wins earlier in the year, but I think the parity may actually short a few teams some bids when it's all said and done.

This spells bad news for Creighton. Coming into the season this was supposed to be the best Bluejay team of the Dana Altman era. Most of the preseason magazines had Creighton ranked in the Top 25 to start the season and they were the pick to win the Valley, but after last night's game they're one of three teams in the conference with three-losses looking up at Northern Iowa.

At this point it looks like the Jays will need to win either the regular season title or at least make the conference tourney title game to have a realistic shot at the Big Dance. Creighton is a good team, but they're not a special team like many of us thought coming in.

As a one-time student and current fan of Creighton University, this is distressing. For the third or fourth time this season, Creighton set an attendance record last night for a college basketball game in the state of Nebraska. The crowd of 17, 459 was larger than the one that watched the Nebraska women's volleyball team win the national title just a few months ago. Creighton is literally the toast of Omaha right now, but that's more alarming than reassuring.

It's been a bull market for Bluejay basketball for a while now, but the Creighton stock still seems to be trading at the same value it was four or five years ago: a 19-20 win team that will finish near the top of their conference and perennially be on the tournament bubble. Now that's progress from where CU was at in the mid-90's, but I still feel like this team should be taking the next step.

The level of recruits should be getting better, but thus far it hasn't. Dana Altman has turned down numerous offers from major conference teams over the past five years, at least implying that he believes the program hasn't topped out, but the results speak differently.

When I was a freshmen in college and foolish enough to think that I could walk on at a Division I program, Creighton practiced in a place actually called the "Old Gym," their weight room was tiny and we would jog through the streets of north Omaha to get to an abandoned high school track overgrown with weeds for preseason conditioning. After getting pink-slipped by Altman himself, my roommate and I had to beg fellow students to head to the Civic Auditorium with us for games.

Now you're lucky if you can get a ticket, but the team doesn't seem that much better than the 98-99 lineup that I tried to crack. That team went 22-9, won the MVC tourney and beat Louisville in the first round of the NCAA tournament, which is about what we expected out of this year's edition of the Jays.

At this point, if they come close to achieving one of those milestones it will feel like a success.

Baseless and Biased NFL Picks

I was six-years-old back when the Patriots and Bears met in Super Bowl XX and the only thing I remember was Jim McMahon's headband from the pregame introductions. (Literally, I can't even remember if I watched the game or not, but that image sticks for some reason.) I'm desperately seeking a rematch, not only because I've never been invested in a Super Bowl as a fan (Bears), but also because I'm not quite ready to be set adrift in the sea of NBA and NHL all-star game coverage yet. Even two-weeks of Super Bowl fluff from the local-media would be preferable to reading more about Paul Pierce's expected return date.

Despite all historical indicators pointing to the Patriots, popular sentiment seems to say that it's finally the Colts time to shine and I pretty much agree with that...but I'm still taking the Patriots. You just don't give a team like this, as overmatched as they may be physically, more chips to pile on their shoulders. Remember, nobody puts Brady in a corner.

As for why I'm taking the Bears, aside from they're my team, I've got nothing. The defense seems to be cracking, they're facing the best offense in the league, they have a wild card at quarterback and winning would mean that Chicago doesn't care about relief efforts down on the bayou. I guess I'll just hope that dome teams continue to fail out of doors in the playoffs.

And finally...thank God for Sunday morning Premiereship action on Fox Soccer Channel. All season long it's provided the perfect preamble to the NFL games to come and today we've got a match befitting of championship Sunday: Arsenal-Manchester United.

It's racing biggest day and everything smells like vomit. I stepped off the Blue Line at the Sufflok Downs stop and almost directly into a pile of someone's Cinco de Mayo celebration. Before I even feel the juice of my first wager of the season, I'm already a bit depressed. We couldn't be further from the big hats and bigger cigars of Louisville, but that's the Derby via simulcast: some of the excitement, none of the decadence.

I shared the five minute walk to the track with a guy wearing a personalized New York Giants away jersey. There was no greeting, no pleasantries, he simply asked the question Kid Rock had been asking me all week in those NTRA commercials, "Who do you like?" It's racing's version of "how you doing" and I'm relieved to be back at the track.

"A.P. Warrior," I told him. Turned out his initials were A.P., and for a moment I thought this a bad omen, but he seemed like a nice enough kid. He knew the field, had a self-proclaimed east coast track bias (so much for my California horse), and his only complaint about Suffolk was that there aren't any ATMs on the premises. (I heard the exact same complaint voiced by two veteran punters in my first five minutes at the track. No wonder Suffolk is struggling to stay open, it may be the only betting parlor in the world that doesn't give its patrons easy access to additional funds.)

As recently as a few weeks ago, I wasn't even sure if I'd have a place to wager on the Derby. For a week in April, Suffolk shuttered its betting windows as they worked to renew their expired simulcasting license. Complicating matters was the measure before the state legislature that would allow slot machines at the track. When it was finally shot down, Suffolk's future looked dim, but they eventually worked a deal to resume simulcast racing and there was a glimmer of hope on opening day with the announcement that the Mass Cap would be returning after a one-year hiatus, this time in the fall in hopes of luring some big name horses prepping for November's Breeders Cup.

Still, it is impossible to escape the feeling that Sufflok is struggling home in the stretch of a lengthy decline into obscurity. It's a shame when you look up and see the banners for past champions like Seabiscuit, Whirlaway and Cigar who graced the track in years past. New England racing used to be a major player on the thoroughbred circuit, but now only the New York tracks seem to be keeping east coast racing above water. Even Pimlico, the home of the "second jewel" of the Triple Crown, is struggling of late.

***

While I keep catching shots of Louisville's nouveau-riche playing dress-up in Gatsby suits and designer hats, it's hard not to notice the difference in class here at Suffolk. Judging by Saturday's crowd, the uniform of a modern-day race fan consists of a throwback jersey and track pants. It feels a bit like NBA All-Star weekend, every where I turn it's a flurry of mesh and nylon in primary colors. There's John Riggins, Walt Frazier, Larry Bird and every player on the Patriots roster in the past three years, all here to play the ponies.

I also saw two fashion accessories for the first time yesterday: spray-on hair and an actual grill. I knew these things existed, but I didn't know you could find them on every day, average people. The things you will see at the track.

I have to get some money down before I become too dismayed and just make the hour trek back to my apartment.

***

Back in my Fonner Park days, I stumbled upon a certainly questionable betting strategy that turned a mild profit. Early in the season, if I saw a six or seven horse field with one entry who had a bulleted workout in the past week, I bet him outright. "Believe in the Bullet," I called it and I was excited to try it out here under the seagulls. That exact scenario presented itself in the Suffolk fourth, so I put $10 to win on Reality Quest. I was surprisingly calm as he ran a distant fourth. It was a bit of a whim and I chastised myself for being so foolhardy. As my Giants-fan friend A.P. had stated earlier, "I'm not here to waste my dollars on these nags." I vow to wait for a better opportunity or the Derby, whichever comes first.

No more than 10 minutes later, I notice that a horse named Curse Reversed is running in a maiden claiming race at Belmont. You have to bet a horse with such a fortuitous name in Boston, right? Additionally, he's running in New York and I can't see any self-respecting Yankee fan putting any money on a horse with such a name so in my mind he's guranteed to be an underlay. I bet him to win and as part of an exacta. He falters late to finish third and I'm down $20 on the day. I impose a two race moratorium before trying to get my money back.

As I find a table in the simulcast room and open the form trying hard to not study too intently in fear that I'll find something worth betting, an old man sits next to me to watch a race from Calder. From the break, he's yelling for the eight. I look up to the screen and don't see his horse anywhere on the screen, but he keeps hollering through the back stretch. What is he seeing? The pack rounds the final turn and I still haven't seen the eight, but the guy beside me goes into a steady 30-second mantra of "Keep whippin' him!" The horse cross the wire in a clump and the man immediately gets up and leaves. A little perturbed, I make a point to see where his eight finished. Turns out there were only six horses entered. I'm not sure if he was simply acting to prove he belonged at the track or if he really thought he had the eight horse in that race, but this odd little observation emboldens me so I put together a big exacta in the 7th at Belmont.

I didn't like either of the favorites in that race, so I selected five horse who I thought could get it done and boxed them all. If this comes home, I'll be playing the Derby with track money. Never happens. I'm down $40 on the day and limping in to the Derby.

***

Somewhere between Friday night's analysis and Saturday's race, I talked myself out of Lawyer Ron. Maybe it was the outside post position, maybe it was the odd mid-week sale, but something told me he wasn't the horse. That left me with Sweetnorthernsaint, A.P. Warrior, Barbaro, Point Determined and Steppenwolfer, so I boxed them all in my big ticket and sat down to watch the odds.

The odd thing about this year's Derby was that the numbers didn't move much in those final 50 minutes. I knew that I was going to take Showing Up at 24-1 and after talking with a veteran handicapper I know from work, I decided to give Cause to Believe a piece at long odds. With 10 minutes to post, I need any combination of my five favorites to finish 1-2, or a long-shot win by Showing Up or Cause to Believe. If any of those things happen, I'm up on the day.

The average sports fans started streaming in to Suffolk in that last hour. I posted myself in front of the same Amtote machine and big screen where I watched Funny Cide come home for a $100 win ticket for me three years ago. He was my last Derby score, thanks to Smarty Jones' short odds and that damned Giacomo.

I end up sharing the space with a group of college buddies from one of the 60-odd schools in the Boston area. They're obvious neophytes so I help them figure out the self-bet machines and watch one guy pump five twenty dollar bills in and punch out a beguiling array of $2 trifectas and a $50 win on Barbaro. "I always play the favorite," he tells me. Nevermind that Sweetnorthernsaint will actually be the shortest price when the gates open.

***

It's been a tough day, the track is not a happy place. I've nearly stepped in vomit, watched a guy root for a horse that didn't exist, saw another man who looked strikingly like my grandfather kick over a trash bin and came face-to-face with a guy who thought it was okay to spray paint his head. But all that stuff washes away when the race finally starts and there is the familiar roar of fans watching horses from a thousand miles away.

During my first ever Derby at an off-track, I was amazed at how nervous I felt leading up to the race. My stomach churned and my palms left sweat stains on my rolled up form. I don't feel like this with any other sporting event, and it was reassuring when the same queasiness arrived on Saturday.

They call the Derby the "most exciting two minutes in sports," but it's actually the longest. The start is always a mess with horses bumping and jostling to not be eliminated eight seconds out. The backstretch is painfully long and you can't see what's happening behind the typical cheap speed horses. Basically you wait for the home stretch and rely on the race call to carry you through. Problem was, Suffolk wasn't broadcasting the call so all I knew was Barbaro was making his move and all I had to hope for was the race for place.

It took an eternity for them to make the results official, and foolishly I waited around. I had Barbaro and I had Steppenwolfer in my exacta box, so without the benefit of audio I stood and hoped that the stewards were looking for something wrong with Bluegrass Cat's second place finish. Mercifully, magically throw him out please! Turns out it was a photo finish for fourth. They guy who showed up 20 minutes before the Derby just won $300. I was busted.

***

The mood walking out of Suffolk was typically somber. Any one leaving this early wasn't cashing in and there was a trail of torn tickets to mark my path back to the train.

I wasn't disappointed. For the most part my handicapping had been sound. I had Barbaro. Steppenwolfer and Showing Up both gave performances I could be proud of, the only total miss was A.P. Warrior who finished 18th. That's the Derby. Anything can happen.

As I was leaving, I held the door for a cocktail waitress who had gratefully reached the end of her shift with the Derby's completion. She nodded thanks and lit a cigarette.

"Welcome to Suffer Downs," she said as she pocketed her lighter and headed for home.

I should've been ecstatic that the first Saturday in May just happened to follow Cinco de Mayo, but instead I spent most of the day concerned over how to adequately celebrate two of my favorite days of the year. I consider a well-made margarita one of the most exquisite cocktails a man can drink, but at the same time my own personal tradition dictates a stop at Brookline News & Gifts for the Form, followed by bourbon and Beyer speed figures on the Friday before the Derby. It's not like I could lose either way, but with a Saturday full of decision making ahead of me I didn't need any more confusion.

So I split the difference. I mixed up a margarita, put on Los Tigres Del Norte and watched the Kentucky Oaks, then broke out the Blanton's, mint leaves and #### pens and got to work dissecting the Derby. And like my first experience in 8th grade cutting up owl pellets, I'm left with a mess, but I'm going to try to make some sense of it.

The Derby is always a challenge to handicap. The horses are too young, the jockeys too good and the trainers too tight-lipped to garner any real insight. For every positive there's a negative, so in that sense it's like statistics and Bible verses, show me one that supports and I'll show you one that detracts. But at the same time, that's what makes the Derby great: so many opinions, so many opportunities and most of them can be supported on some front.

I don't consider myself an expert handicapper. I know enough to read the form and make some deductions, but beyond that I'm your average punter who makes it to the track three or four times a year. I guess I'm biased towards speed figures and a clear demonstration of competitiveness and heart. Every year I spend about a week prepping for the Derby, only to have everything derailed in the last 30 minutes to post, scrambling for some random win/place bets that have, so far, kept me in the black.

With that said, let's get to the horseflesh. (Listed by post position  with morning line odds in parentheses.)

---

1. Jazil (30-1)

A stone cold closer with little to recommend him other than the promise o####rueling pace and favorable post position. Jazil doesn't seem to have the Beyer figures of a Derby winner, minus the 97 he posted in the Wood Memorial. A closer will finish on the board, just not this one.

2. Steppenwolfer (30-1)

I really liked Steppenwolfer's close in the Arkansas Derby and he immediately became my longshot on the bottom of exotics. He's finished second to Lawyer Ron in two of his last three starts and the extra distance could help him if the first fractions are as hot as expected. I would like to see a Beyer in the triple digits, but I still think he can hit the board.

3. Keyed Entry (30-1)

Posted a 110 BSF in early February, but he's already lost to two Derby horses I'm not favoring. I hated the race he ran in the Wood Memorial, where it looked like he quit, and he seems primed to get locked in with the early speedsters.

4. Sinister Minister (12-1)

Is he the next War Emblem or not? No one thought that horse could take it gate to wire in 2002, but he managed it and Sinister Minister has the highest Beyer in the field after the Illinois Derby. I suspect you'll hear his name early, but not late.

5. Point Determined (12-1)

He has the blood to do it, sired by Point Given who was sired by former Derby winner Thunder Gulch, and the trainer in Baffert. His daddy lost as the prohibitive favorite and Point Determined will need a little luck early to disprove the "old adage", it's better Given than Determined. Probably a part of any exotics.

6. Showing Up (20-1)

I love when owners give you a built in slight with their colt's name and the people at Lael Stables have happily complied as I don't see Showing Up doing much more than that. It looks like this horse's best is a few races away as he's only got three lifetime starts. It's all a matter of experience, but he is 3 for 3 in those starts with speed figures that stack up. The Derby is a tough race for a newcomer, but I'll keep an eye on the tote board here for a late win wager if the odds are right.

7. Bob and John (12-1)

A bit of an overlay at 12-1, but I'll be shocked if he doesn't go off at odds longer than that. He's already lost to A.P. Warrior, Point Determined and Brother Derek and he looks like the least likely of Baffert's three to be in the running. Looks like he has the speed, but as with every horse in this race who can make that claim, can he rate?

8. Barbaro (4-1)

He's the co-second choice because, while he has speed, he has shown he doesn't mind holding back. I loved his strength in the stretch during the Florida Derby, holding off a hard-charging Sharp Humor and he'll probably get a portion of my betting interest in one form or another.

9. Sharp Humor (20-1)

This colt only has one loss this year, the aforementioned Florida Derby, and I was mighty impressed with his race there. If he can resist running with Sinister Minister early he could be a factor, but right now he looks like a tough omission. But if it's wet, watch out.

10. A.P. Warrior (15-1)

I absolutely love this horse for one reason: he's run against at least one fellow Derby starter in six of his eight lifetime starts. He's battle tested and he's been right in the thick of things with Point Determined and Brother Derek in the past. If he stays anywhere near 15-1 I'll take him straight up.

11. Sweetnorthernsaint (10-1)

Probably the most consistent Beyer figures of any horse in the field. He has a strong stretch run that seems tailor made for Churchill Downs, and, although he's the lone gelding, he showed a lot of balls in the Gotham following a bad trip. The only question with this horse is the value.

12. Private Vow (30-1)

Just make one not to take this horse here. Been chasing Lawyer Ron and Steppenwolfer in his last two, how can we expect him to get it done here?

13. Bluegrass Cat (30-1)

Another horse who's been beaten by other non-contenders in the field. Deputy Glitters, 50-1 on the morning line, beat him in the Tampa Derby and Storm Treasure, another 50-1 shot, took him in the Bluegrass Stakes.

14. Deputy Glitters (50-1)

Simply put, he ain't gold. After his performance in the slop at Aqueduct April 8, there's even less to like if it's wet.

15. Seaside Retreat (50-1)

Nope. His Beyer figures aren't even close, but his owner can always say he had a Derby horse. Could be over 100-1.

16. Cause to Believe (50-1)

Another owner making it to easy on we punters: I see little Cause to Believe here. (Thank you, I'll be here all night). This colt did beat Sinister Minister in the Cal Derby, but should be middle of the pack.

17. Lawyer Ron (4-1)

My favorite of the short priced horses. Ron's the most experienced horse in the field, an invaluable trait in the Riot for the Roses, with 14 career starts. Some concern about whether or not he'll be able to stay off the early pace, but he did show versatility in the Rebel Stakes coming from fourth to win by three lengths.

Also interesting with this horse, the estate of his late owner James Hines, Jr., sold a majority stake in this horse just days ago. A vote of no confidence or just striking while the iron is hot? I hope it was an attempt to raise questions and drive up the odds, but we'll see.

18. Brother Derek (3-1)

Nothing not to like here...other than he's the favorite and will be carrying a bit more baggage onto the track on Saturday. Derek's had his way for much of the prep season, and the only potential question is whether or not he can get the same favorable position breaking from 18. You have to make some difficult decisions, and leaving Brother Derek out might be mine.

19. Storm Treasure (50-1)

Doesn't seem to have the resume of a Derby winner. He needs the rail and he won't get it from out here.

20. Flashy Bull (50-1)

Not really scientific, but Bull's trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, looked absolutely pissed about getting the last choice in the post selection ceremony on Wednesday. It didn't inspire confidence. This is another horse that could possibly nibble for a piece if he were on the inside, but from 20 he'll need a miracle. Nearly a carbon copy of Storm Treasure.

---

If the horses stick around their morning line odds (never happens), I'm looking at a finish of A.P. Warrior, Lawyer Ron, Steppenwolfer, and Barbaro. I'll probably box those four horses in some sort of exacta with Point Determined and then look for value on the tote board with straight up win bets on a few other underlays.

But my unconditional lock of the day for tomorrow? That my four buddies who will be waking up at 6 a.m. and shaking off their Cinco hangovers will definitely be calling as soon as they're on the road from Nashville to Louisville. I'm laying 1-5 on that.  Vaya con dios!

---

Check back on Sunday for a full recap of the day from Suffolk Downs, plus the ultimate demolition of my handicapping skills.