HiPlainsDrifter's Blog
by: HiPlainsDrifter
The Happiest Boy in the Whole USA - HPSWBT Week 1 Picks
Aug 31, 2006 | 6:04PM | report this

We're less than 40 minutes in to the 2006 college football season and I've already seen a quarterback get his clock cleaned. Central Michigan's starting QB, one of three who is expected to see time tonight, nearly got concussed and wobbled off the field two plays into the season wearing his helmet like Juan Pierre wears his baseball cap. I've missed you college football.

I was more excited today for a random Thursday night than any person has a right to be, but not just for the start of the season and the VMA's hosted by Jack Black. Back when I was just a baby blogger looking for a diversion, I started picking games week by week on my old blog just for fun. Investors in the Hi Plains Sports Wagering Brain Trust (HPSWBT) were justifiably shaken after my poor performance led to me not even updating my season record after week 10 or so, but it did become somewhat of a Thursday night tradition and I am happy to continue it here.

But first, a little bit about my "strategy."

  • I'm not a hardcore handicapper. I'm only marginally interested in things like returning starters and records ATS following a SU loss on artificial turf, but I'll use them from time to time. I like to play much more by feel, or, in other words, I like to gamble not work.
  • I try to ignore the Nebraska game every week due to my emotional involvement but never do.
  • I refuse to bet with Ohio State due to the fact that their NFL alumni always use "THE Ohio State University" during the taped Monday Night Football introductions. I'm aware that Akron, Kent State, Cincinnati, Toledo, Youngstown St., and Mount Union are not the primary institution of the state of Ohio. Thanks.
  • I always try to avoid the Thursday night game because the spread is never as good as it looks, but it's always fun to have a rooting interest. I never do that either.

And that's pretty much it. Every Thursday (or sometimes Wednesday) you can expect 10 or 12 completely subjective, woefully uninformed picks. I was able to save up the pennies I was making per week via Google's AdSense to buy a copy of Phil Steele's preview mag so I do have extra ammunition coming in to tonight, but mostly I look at this as an opportunity to create a public record of my college football futility.

With that said, Lee and Kirk are on the TV and the beverages are appropriately chilled. Let's get started...


Week 1

UTEP @ SDSU (-2.5)

The Aztecs have ditched their "Fade To Black" helmet and, as a Metallica fan, that makes me St. Angry. I'll take Jordan Palmer, UTEP's superior experience and the points.

Vanderbilt @ Michigan (-26)

I realize this is Vanderbilt, who surprised some folks early in 05, but nearly four touchdowns against an SEC foe in the opener? The Wolverines are only 4-8 against the spread in their last 12 home openers.

 N. Illinois @ THE Ohio State University (-17.5)

The Huskies have a dark horse Heisman candidate in Garrett Wolfe and the Buckeyes are replacing nine starters on defense. I think that's enough for at least a few Huskie scores to get under the number.

Akron @ Penn St. (-17)

Penn State will be initiating a lot of new Nittanies on Saturday, whereas the defending MAC champions have almost every one back. Penn State has far more talent, but I look for them to be shaky enough in their opener to allow the Zips to stay close.

(Honestly, I don't feel great about my last three picks, but if I'm going to take on the Big 10 big dogs with week one road teams, I might as well make it a trilogy. It can't be any worse than Star Wars Episodes 1-3.)

Stanford @ Oregon (-12)

While the Ducks start the season in the Top 20, much of their off season news has surrounded their increasingly odd uniforms. Few things are as divisive as the Ducks togs, but I'm off the school of thought that they're so ugly/absurd they're wonderful. With four different tops, four different bottoms and three different helmets, they never have to wear the same uniform twice this season. I honestly could see this game going either way, so I'll make a conditional pick based on uniforms.

If Oregon goes with the green helmets of the past few years, I'm taking Stanford. Should the Ducks debut their yellow lids, I'll lay the 12, and if they break out the white helmets in Autzen I think that bodes well for the over at 55. See how fun crazy uniforms can be?

The State University of New Jersey @ North Carolina (-5)

Joe Dailey was the first QB Bill Callahan ran out of Nebraska, and for good reason. He threw 21 INTs in 11 starts. Not good. The Scarlet Knights have some talent and UNC traditionally underwhelms early.

UAB @ Oklahoma (-22)

I imagine that the Bomar incident only lit a bigger fire under the Sooners. I look for this to be an absolute whitewash as Oklahoma comes out looking to prove they'll be just fine.

USC @ Arkansas (+8)

See above, but substitute Leinart/Bush/White for Bomar. I like Arkansas a lot...just not here.

Notre Dame @ Georgia Tech (+7)

I actually liked this game before (superb GT receivers vs. ND defense), but as Peter Schrager documented, the PS2 might have its own magic working. The Yellow Jackets broke Irish hearts in week one during my season, why not for real? I cannot even imagine the uproar out of South Bend if ND's title hopes are dashed this early.

La. Tech @ Nebraska (-21)

I told you. If I'm going to live and die with them, why wait a week? I actually like this spread quite a bit. Nebraska's biggest question mark is in the secondary, but their front seven is as good as any in the land. Billy C. has four talented HBs and he's looking to use them all, which concerns me. Every one is saying all the right things now, but what happens when they realize that this equates to about 10 totes per game per player? Nevertheless, we can worry more about that in two weeks at USC. This week, I think La. Tech struggles to score.


And because this is opening weekend, let's take a quick look at some of the future odds. According to Vegasinsider.com, the Fighting Irish are the chalk at 5-1, but there is a ton of value out there.

Iowa has the schedule and the quarterback to be in the hunt, and at 30-1 you're going to be hard pressed to find a better pick.

If Clemson can survive consecutive road trips to Boston College and Florida State in weeks two and three, they could merit serious consideration at 60-1. Win with them and we're talking Phil Mickelson pay outs. If you select "the field" you're only equaling what Clemson is getting. Something seems off.

And finally, don't forget tomorrow is College Colors Day. Grab your jersey or letter jacket or foam hat in the shape of regional delicacies and wear it to work. The great thing about college jerseys is they're never outdated thanks to NCAA rules. My 2001 Eric Crouch jersey became a Demorrio Williams jersey in 2002 and is now a Frantz Hardy jersey. Every year it's a different option...just like Oregon.

6 Comments | Add a comment   categories: College Football, CFB
 
« Continue reading HiPlainsDrifter's Blog
total comments: 6      Page 1 of 1     
jgrace_12
Aug 31, 2006
6:59 PM
Nice picks, but you didn't even pick the big one. What about Miami/Florida State? I would figure the big guys would be all over that.

HiPlainsDrifter
Aug 31, 2006
8:28 PM
jgrace: Good point. I like Florida State.

hogfan480618
Sep 1, 2006
7:07 AM
Drifter, stick to blogging and leave the handicapping to me. What are you gonna do when you can't meet your 2nd mortgage?

Just kidding. Seriously, those are some..... I'm trying to think of something kind to say, ....atrocious! That's it! No, that's not kind....interesting, yeah that's it. Interesting picks. Don't quit your day job.

HiPlainsDrifter
Sep 1, 2006
10:03 AM
hogfan: Atrocious? I'm undefeated so far! Realistically, my Big 10 picks are probably worthy of such scorn. Only a fool would pick three road teams against three of the best teams in the conference, and last season's record proved that I'm nothing if not a fool, but I'm a fool who thinks I can get two out of those three games.

hogfan480618
Sep 1, 2006
10:32 AM
it's always fun to pick games, but fortunately for me, I only use Monopoly money. I think Akron will play a close game, and NIU will keep it close for a half. Michigan should win easily. The Wolverines are my sleeper pick for a run at the National Championship. Vandy will struggle on offense this year.

HiPlainsDrifter
Sep 1, 2006
11:34 AM
hogfan: I don't have anything on the line other than pride either. But it's remarkable how invested I get nonetheless. I really hope the Hogs can get it done on Saturday, even if it sends SC back to the drawing board in time for Nebraska on 9/16. With Tenn. and LSU a bit suspect this year, you guys are MY sleeper pick in the West. Auburn looms large, but on any given Saturday anything can happen. Live and die for that inch.

Page 1 of 1     
Add a comment  
ABOUT ME


HiPlainsDrifter

Writing under the nom de plume HiPlainsDrif
ter
, Brandon Vogel won FOXSports' second ever Next Great Sportswriter competition.

MY FAVORITE BLOGS
The Official FOXSports Blog
Rob Dibble's Hard Ball
Sports With Moore
NorthSideFan's Blog
The Yard
huskernationeas
t's Blog
Crookdnose
Peccadillo
NGS judges' blog
Welcome to Death Valley!
FOX_Funhouse's Blog
But It's A DRY Heat . . .
Thank You. I love you all.
Crunk Wit Me
hogfan480618's Blog
josh q. public
Time stamping is done in Pacific Time.