With the positively mediocre preseason predictions for the 2007 season designated shredder food, it’s time to once again wade into the unpredictable future that is the 2008 Major League Baseball season.
AL East
While the New York Yankees will put a lot of hurtin’ on pitchers, this division belongs to the Red Sox. The team is loaded offensively with Manny, Big Papi and Mike Lowell, but for the team that scored the third most runs in the league, it’s the pitching staff that separates them from the Yankees and every other team in the AL. Boston led the league with a 3.87 ERA last season and boasts two Cy Young candidates and enough depth that their fifth starterr was good for 12 wins. Even if the staff struggles, which could very well happen as the long season took its toll on Daisuke Matsuzaka while Curt Schilling battled injuries and age, their offense and bullpen will get them into post-season play. And that’s where it will get scarier for AL teams because of the Sox top four relievers racked up 46 saves and a combined era of 2.05.
AL Central
A year ago the Tigers were one win behind Boston for the best record in baseball at the All-Star break just to have it collapse as injuries devastated their pitching staff and cost DH Gary Sheffield a large part of the second half. Though pitching remains a concern, a similar break down is unlikely as this team will simply bash its way to the division crown. Defensive improvements will also help if for no other reason than moving stone-handed shortstop Carlos Guillen to first but hitting will be the star of the show. The Tigers’ likely batting order for 2008 hit .302, .341, .265, .363, .320, .296, .330, .280 and .285 a year ago. Included in this onslaught was 168 home runs in the pitching-friendly park and 762 RBI. Don’t be surprised if Miguel Cabrera wins the AL MVP award.
AL West
Provided that John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar and Scott Shields have no lingering effects from their injuries, the Angles will win their fourth division title in five years. The Mariners, with the addition of starter Erik Bedard, will make it a close, but the Angles should be able to pull this one off. In addition to strengthening their pitching staff with Jon Garland, the Angels finally found some offensive help for All-Star Vladimir Guerrero. The outfield of Garret Anderson (.297, 16, 80), newcomer Torii Hunter (.287, 28, 107 and 18 stolen bases) and Guerrero (.324, 27, 125) gives Los Angeles the firepower to weather early season pitching problems. Hunter’s addition also means better defense and more production out of the DH spot with Gary Matthews Jr. (.252, 18, 72, 18 stolen bases) being relieved of fielding duties.
NL East
If you think the Mets season-ending collapse won’t happen again, well, you’re right. But even with Johan Santana, it will hardly be a cakewalk to the division title because, surprisingly, pitching could be their downfall. Offensively the team is set with some of the best young hitters in the game, but outside of the possible 2008 NL Cy Young Award winner, the staff has holes. Pedro Martinez did post a 2.57 ERA a year ago but it was in only five starts and he hasn’t really put it together since 2005. He’s also 37 years old. John Maine is young and had a break-out year in 2007, but he’s no lock to repeat. Likewise for Oliver Perez, whose 15 wins last year were more than his combined totals in the three previous seasons. The bullpen is solid with Billy Wagner, but as a unit the relief corps pitched 500-plus innings a year ago and could falter if once again asked to carry such a load. Any bump in the road, and the Phillies will once again take over.
NL Central
Milwakee’s rotation is short and they have a retread at closer. The Cardinals’ starting five will be a piecemeal project while Matt Clement, Mark Mulder, Joel Pineiro and Chris Carpenter slowly come off the DL over the next few months. That leaves the Cubs as repeat winners of the division and it isn’t totally due to the shortcomings of others. A year ago Chicago had the second best team ERA in the league. Carlos Zambrano has a fine backup in Ted Lilly, who won 15 games last year and has reduced his ERA each season for the past three years. Rich Hill is in his third year, and though he has struggled this spring is a lock at No. 3. Hitting looks to improve with the addition of highly regarded import Kosuke Fukudome and promising catcher Geovany Soto, who hit .389 in 12 games last year.
NL West
Good luck picking what has been baseball’s tightest, but hardly best, division over the past few years. A year ago three teams finished within one-and-a-half games of each other, and No. 4 made the biggest off-season move by bringing in arguably baseball’s best manager. San Diego had the best staff in the league last year with Arizona coming in at No. 4. Unfortunately, neither team could hit worth a lick finishing at two final spots on the board. Colorado and Los Angeles finishing atop the hitting category, but couldn’t match their two interdivisional rivals in pitching. Flip a coin if you must, but with solid starting pitching, an outstanding closer, the signing of Andruw Jones and a young and talented James Loney who — at the time of this writing — was hitting .331 during spring and the Dodgers are the team to beat in the National League West.
AL Playoffs
Boston, Detroit, Los Angeles, Cleveland
Even with Chien-Ming Wang fronting the rotation and Joba Chamberlain likely to move into a starting role, the Yankees’ long-in-the-tooth pitching staff is finally too much to overcome. Cleveland, a 96-game winner last year, beats Boston and Detroit out powers L.A. to set up a American League Central showdown for league supremacy.
NL Playoffs
Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, Philadelphia
The deeper Dodgers get past Philly while Chicago provides some hope after a century of failure by defeating the Mets and getting to the division finals.
World Series
Detroit’s lack of bullpen strength becomes obvious as the team cannot hold its early leads and Cleveland moves on to the World Series to play Los Angeles as once again the Cubs suffer another season of disappointment.
Indian fans, who themselves have suffered through 50 years of losing, celebrate their team’s victory at the Rock ‘N Roll Hall of Fame.
Where else are they going to go?
Job Wanted:
Broken down slugger with bad knees and defensive liabilities is seeking a high paying job with a contending team. Will only bat third and requires two lockers, La-Z-Boy recliner, large screen TV — off limits to teammates — and private trainers with run of the locker room. Does not play well with others and may need time off to fight bogus charges and assassination attempts to character. Will also blame others for personal shortcomings. Only serious offers need to apply. Contact Jeff Borris or Donald Fehr with concessions.
With the Major League Baseball season just a week away, Fehr is concerned that the game’s all-time leading home run hitter, Clearasil-user and friend to the oppressed is still without a job. So astonished by the development is he that he’s looking into the matter to see if the Major League clubs have come together to purposely keep his man out of the game. No word yet from the union head on whether the player’s health, popularity or his possible future residency in the Hotel de Vertical Sunlight has had any adverse affect on Bonds’ contract status. Tampa briefly discussed bringing him aboard and Cardinal manager Tony LaRussa endorsed the idea of Barry replacing another former lumbering long ball specialist who has since gone into hiding. Unfortunately for baseball’s resident genius, the notion was shot down faster than Mark McGwire with a bottle of Winstrol.
Bonds’ only value is to an American League team with a hole at DH that is looking for a big bat to get them into the playoffs. This rules out every team in the East as only Boston and New York are playoff bound with neither in need of extra fire power and poorer defense should they decide to put him elsewhere. Detroit will crush its way to the Central title and needs relief help. Cleveland is secure with Travis Hafner while the White Sox have Jim Thome and a psycho manager who reserves the role of dugout buffoon to himself. After moving Johan Santana, Minnesota now boasts a pitching staff that returns only one starter — Kevin Slowey, 4-1 — with a winning record. Bringing Bonds on board would only satisfy the requirement of losing by a closer margin. The Angels are the best team in the West and were already the majors’ sixth-best run producers before Torii Hunter was signed. Seattle, on the other hand, was seventh in the American League in scoring and could use another bat but lacks cash after the Mariners committed $100 million to Ichiro Suzuki. The Bay Area still loves the ornery former left fielder and Billy Beane is an OBP fan, but the A’s are going nowhere.
But the future is not totally bleak for the future Hall of Famer. The Lake Elsinore Storm, a Class-A affiliate of the San Diego Padres, has put forth an offer to Bonds in it’s media relations department. In the not-to-be-taken-seriously memo offering Bonds the “cushy media job,” Storm general manager Chris Jones said, “We just think the way he has handled the media with such grace over the years that he would be a perfect fit in our media relations department.”
No word yet on if Barry is considering the position.
It shouldn’t take long to see if Roger Clemens’ three-day whistle stop tour of the nation’s capital — which included meetings with 24 hill residents — will have its intended effect. If we take Rep. Tom Davis’ (R-Va) comment at face value that “someone is lying in spectacular fashion about the ultimate question,” then the next step in Clemens vs. McNamee is an investigation by the justice department. Such results, however, are not always available in the city with an #### lobbyist fetish.
Going after Brian McNamee would be simple. He’s a nobody with no friends, and punishing him for soiling the name of the Republican favorite would be easy. But proving he did so would be much tougher faced with corroborating statements from former clients. Clemens, while easier to prosecute, is safer from the threat of possible prosecution because, well, he’s Roger Clemens.
Most who have testified before such a body aren’t able to name-drop about a deer-blind phone call of support from a former president who just happens to belong to the same party as those roasting his antagonist. Nor do they have questioners falling over themselves to expound the heroic acts of a man who tossed a ball for a living.
Rep. Dan Burton left little doubt regarding his allegiance as he railed against McNamee saying, “Roger Clemens is a titan in baseball and you with all these lies, if they are not true, are destroying him and his reputation. Now how does he get his reputation back if this is not true, and how can we believe you because you’ve lied and lied and lied and lied.”
What was expected to be nothing more than popular topic-posturing turned into a partisan love fest where each side praised the particular enemy they’d prefer to sleep with, but the Republican from Indiana wasn’t the most pathetic member of the Beltway circus.
No, the prize for biggest suck up does not go to the congressman who allegedly threatened Major League Baseball with an investigation after a group including Democratic party spend-thrift George Soros made an initial play for the Washington Nationals. That honor actually goes to a trio of GOP blowhards who treated Clemens like an NRA lobbyist.
Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.) displayed photos of Clemens to show how his body had not changed over the years saying, “You appear to me about the same size in all those photos. It doesn’t appear [your] size changed much.” The photos, by the way, were exactly the same as those in a 62-page document Clemens’ team gave to reporters prior to the hearing. The honorable representative from the great state of North Carolina also grilled McNamee if he planned to write a book and sneered at him saying “We'll see about that,” when he answered no. Fortunately, Foxx solidified her claim as an impartial observer by being seen giving Debbie Clemens a hug following the proceedings.
Joining Foxx on the Clemens appreciation committee was Carolyn Maloney (R-N.Y.), who thanked him for his service to the New York Yankees and, maybe most pathetic, Rep. Eleanor Norton, who commented “All I can say, Mr. Clemens, is I’m sure you’re going to heaven.”
While the Republican side of the committee did the most to steer clear of contesting Clemens on the inconsistencies of his testimony, to be honest the Democrats had their share of sucking up as well. Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Md.) admitted the big right-hander was “one of my heroes” while discrediting Clemens’ testimony. William “Lacy” Clay (D-Mo.), who could have been one of Foxx’s lap dogs, asked what uniform he’d be wearing upon induction to the Hall of Fame
Who the hell cares.
With a nation at war, gas prices choking the economy and gulf state residents still in need of a place to live more than two years after a massive storm left them homeless, it is unconsionable that a group of elected officials, whose job it is to take care of such problems, would put aside such meager concerns in order to suck up to an athlete who seems to have adopted the Pete Rose defense — arrogantly lie while the evidence mounts.
“No matter what we discuss here today, I am never going to have my name restored,” said Clemens channeling the all-time hits king. “I know a lot of people want me to say I took steroids and be done with it. But I cannot in good conscience admit to doing something I did not do, even if it would be easier to do so.”
Though Burton claimed to have seen no evidence that Clemens used steroids in his attack on McNamee, he should have heard enough to question why the Rocket was allegedly getting shot up with Lidocaine for various injuries after Dr. Arthur Pappas, the medical director for the Boston Red Sox for 25 years, told investigators the drug is used only as a local anesthetic mostly in combination with other injections that include, according to a New York Daily News article, steroids. Burton is correct that there was no smoking gun but there are plenty of powder burns to raise the su####ion of anyone actually concerned with getting at the truth.
With baseball being exempt from the nation’s anti-trust laws, Congress has some oversight into what is going on and, to be fair, if it weren’t for their grandstanding nearly three years ago, baseball would not have a drug testing program, the Mitchell report would not have been instigated, and Bud Selig and Donald Fehr could continue to hide behind their clouds of lies. So maybe some good could become of the hearing.
But if this is where it ends, at least we have the magnanimous Clemens to help us through the dark times.
“If I am guilty of anything it is of being to trusting of everyone, wanting to see the best in everyone, being too nice to everyone.”
The only thing guaranteed when the members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America turn in their Hall of Fame ballots is that hype will be more valued than talent, hitters will take a back seat to sluggers, grudges will be held and changes in the game will cause the worthy to be left out.
Not that this should come as a surprise. As we have reported in this space, great careers do not guarantee easy admission. It took Al Simmons — 307 HR, 1,827 RBI, .334 average and 2,927 hits — eight election cycles to make it. For Harry Heilmann — .342 average, 1,539 RBI and 2,660 hits — it was an 11-year wait. Even Rogers Hornsby had to wait. After hitting 301 home runs and a career .358 batting average, Hornsby was named on only 17.6 percent of the ballots in 1938 and none the year before. He eventually made it in 1942.
The ballots were sent this week.
Hall of Famers
Bert Blyleven — His career winning percentage of .534 is more a testament to the teams he played for then his ability on the mound. Over his 22-year career, the six teams he played for won .501 percent (1826-1820) of their games. His 3.31 era puts him in the category with Hall of Famers Lefty Gomez (3.34), Ferguson Jenkins (3.34) and Don Sutton (3.26), but he was a much better strikeout pitcher with 3,701 Ks— fifth all time.
Andre Dawson — One has to wonder how long the Hawk would have to wait if he hadn’t played his first 11 years in Montreal. Dawson is one of six men in baseball history who have hit at least 300 home runs (438) and stole 300 bases (314). He drove in 1,591 RBI, won eight Gold Gloves in nine years and was the National League MVP for the last place Cubs in 1987.
Rich Gossage — In the days before relievers became closers and when saves were actually earned, Gossage was a terrifying presence on the mound who victimized hitters with a devastating fastball. Though his 310 saves currently ranks him 17th, at the time of his retirement only three men had recorded more. Add in his 2.05 ERA over a 10-year span — not including his one season as a starter in 1976 — and his numbers reach legendary status.
Jim Rice — Rice didn’t play very long (16 years) and didn’t exactly endear himself to the voters — this will be his 14th year on the ballot — but what he did on the field through out the 1970s and ’80s was exemplary. Rice finished with 373 home runs and 1,451 RBI during a time when 35 home runs and 100 RBI put players in positions to lead the league. Rice finished first in home runs three times and RBI twice. He was the American League MVP in 1978 and for his career averaged 30 home runs, 113 RBI and hit .298.
All-Stars (Close calls)
Mark McGwire — A big hitter who thrived in era of offensive explosion, Big Mac was a average-at-best fielder with no speed and mediocre batting average (.263). Eighth all time with 583 home runs, McGwire is loved by fans and writers who see him as one of the saviors of the national game. At least they did until his embarrassing testimony before Congress.
Jack Morris — Morris was the winningest pitcher in the ’80s and one of the game’s best big game performers. His 3.90 ERA is a bit high, but his 254 wins, 2,478 strike outs stand out in an impressive career. One of the last ironman pitchers, he tossed 175 complete games while averaged 241 innings pitched. His 14 opening day starts is the most since Walter Johnson.
Tim Raines — In his first year of eligibility, the slap hitting, base-stealing wizard will make voters think. His 808 stolen bases (fifth all time), 2,605 hits, 1,571 runs (46th) and .294 average deem serious consideration. Compari-sons with Hall of Famer Lou Brock are favorable. Brock tops Raines in stolen bases, runs, hits, doubles and triples. Raines leads in home runs and RBI. He also struck out less, was caught stealing fewer time and walked nearly twice as much.
Lee Smith — Though Smith benefited from playing in the modern era of relievers, finishing first in games finished and second in saves says something. He was either first or second in saves eight times, won the Rolaids Relief Man of the Year Award three times and was named to seven All Star teams.
Starters (Solid, but …)
Harold Baines — Good hitter who stock piled numbers over a long career. 384 home runs, 2,866 hits, 1,628 RBI resulted in 5.3 percent of the vote last year.
Dave Concepcion — The light-hitting middle infielder with a slick glove (five Gold Gloves) and 321 stolen bases was a not-so-poor man’s Ozzie Smith.
David Justice — His 305 home runs, 1,017 RBI, 929 runs and a career .279 average made for a good, but not great career. His mistreatment of Halle Berry also costs him BIG TIME.
Don Mattingly — Over a six-year span, Donnie Baseball was one of the game’s best, averaging 26.6 home runs, 114 RBI, 96.8 runs while hitting .326. Over the next six years he never hit more than 17 home runs or drove in more than 89 runs and his average plummeted 40 points.
Dale Murphy — The two-time MVP was the face of the Atlanta Braves during the 1980s. From 1978 to 1989, Murphy averaged 149 games played, 88 runs scored, 29 home runs, 88 RBI and a .269 batting average. His five Gold Gloves attest to his overall athletic ability.
Robb Nen — Effective while he lasted, his 314 saves ranked 15th all-time. Career cut short after only 10 seasons.
Dave Parker — Between 1975 and 1979, the Cobra never hit lower than .308 and averaged 22 home runs and 98 RBI. The seven-time All Star bounced back in the ’80s, but never completely regained his form. His totals — 2,712 hits, 339 home runs, 1,493 RBI and three Gold Gloves — show just how good he was and what could have been.
Alan Trammell — Neither a hitter like Cal Ripken Jr. nor a glove man like Ozzie Smith, Trammell carved out a long career as second best at both. His four Gold Gloves, .285 batting average and 185 home runs would have set a standard in almost any other era.
Bench Players (Nice careers)
Brady Anderson — Cal’s best friend went from 16 home runs in 1995 to 50 a season later. Any guesses how?
Rod Beck — Popular player saved 286 games in 13 seasons.
Shawon Dunston — Role player through 18 MLB seasons.
Chuck Finley — Five-time All-Star was a quality starter who won 15 games seven times.
Travis Fryman — Four All-Star games in first six years hinted at talent. Out of baseball after 13 years.
Tommy John — More famous for the surgery that bears his name. Won 288 games in 26-year career.
Chuck Knoblauch — Rookie of the Year and All-Star second sacker in Minnesota crumbled under the pressure in New York.
Jose Rijo — Solid pitcher whose career was cut short by injury.
Todd Stottlemyre — Won two World Series with Toronto.
