From our good friends at Hendricks Sports Management, where
billable hours is not just an accounting term but a way of life, comes the
third installment in the Roger Clemens defense strategy that has so far
produced a predictable interview and an uninformative, slime-covered, secretly
recorded phone conversation. The latest submission, the 49-page “Analysis of
the Career of Roger Clemens,” further shows Clemens’ defense team will leave no
dollar unturned in its half-assed approached to defending its client.
The report in itself is not bad. Chock full of colorful
graphs and tables, the crunch of numbers, categories and comparisons are enough
to drain the brain of any amateur sabermatrician. And that is exactly the
point. Innocence through confusion. Bury the opposition behind a mountain of
data. It worked for O.J., and it worked for Capitalist Records in its suit
against Chef over ownership of Stinky Britches.
Hendricks Sports Management has wisely employed the
Chewbacca defense. It is asking the members of the supposed jury in the court
of public opinion to deliberate and conjugate the Emancipation Proclamation to
determine if charges leveled against their client makes any sense. Johnny
Cochran would have been proud.
The first real good flood of information appears on Page 10
in the form of a table that breaks Roger’s seasonal ERA margins — a comparison
of the Rocket’s ERA to league averages — into six tiers. No explanation is
offered as to why the authors chose six categories instead of two, 12 or 24.
The text below the table states that Clemens produced nine “average-to-good”
years, nine years of “superior” performances and six years “at the highest
levels.” Below that is a three-#### line graph to better illustrate the ups
and downs of his career. It looks nice, in a high school term paper kind of
way.
According to the report, Clemens’ best years were over in
1999, and “While Clemens pitched at a high level of quality at different points
throughout his career, the quality of his pitching declined as he reached his
late 30s and early 40s.”
Not exactly a winning endorsement for a free-agent pitcher,
who at the end of the season still had not yet ruled out another return to the
game. But if any suitors were to call upon the still-unattached pitcher, it
would take no time for the boys at Hendricks to produce another report
extolling the virtues of the man who between the ages of 41-43 won 38 games
while posting a 2.40 ERA.
The report is correct in saying that Clemens’ career was
lengthened by his ability to learn new pitches and his adoption of a fitness
routine following his shoulder surgery in 1985. No matter what the level of
artificial help, if any, a pitcher uses, long-term success depends on
continually learning new ways to get a batter out and being in shape.
Nolan Ryan, Clemens’ friend and hero, whose career was
examined in the report and who is by far the best litmus test for Clemens,
stressed fitness and intelligence his entire career. Ryan survived 27 years of
big league punishment not through chemical help, but by changing his pitching
style and reducing the burden on his arm and shoulder by developing and
maintaining leg strength. The report uses that fact in support of Clemens. It
is the strongest argument in a paper that goes from viable to confusing to
flat-out wrong.
The confusion comes on the final page where a document
titled, Exhibit A, makes the claim that if Clemens pitched for the Rangers
instead of Houston in 2005, he would have finished the season with a 24-3
record and an eighth Cy Young. How this has any bearing on the Rocket’s case is
a complete mystery — especially with the authors’ disregard for wins as an
accurate measure of a pitcher’s individual ability.
Things go from weird to wrong at the end of the analysis of
the report, as the authors list 31 Hall of Famers who pitched into their 40s as
a way to show how unspectacular Clemens has been.
The problem is that not every pitcher mentioned actually
pitched into their 40s. According to baseball-reference.com and
baseball-almanac.com, Mordecai “Three Fingers” Brown, Jim Bunning, Bob Gibson,
Walter Johnson and Robin Roberts all finished their careers at the age of 39.
Four more (Chief Bender, Carl Hubbell, Ferguson Jenkins,
Herb Pennock) pitched only one year into their 40s. Three others (Dennis
Eckersley, Satchel Paige and Hoyt Wilhelm) were relievers and one, Cy Young,
pitched in an era so long past that any comparison is highly suspect. That
leaves a total of 26 pitchers to safely judge Clemens against. A nice number,
but hardly the landslide of evidence suggested in the report. But how does
Clemens compare to his earlier colleagues?
With a minimum number of four years pitched in their 40s,
(Clemens toiled for five) the list get narrowed down to Grover Cleveland
Alexander, Steve Carlton, Red Faber, Jesse Haines, Phil Niekro, ####lord Perry,
Nolan Ryan, Warren Spahn, Don Sutton, Dazzy Vance and Early Wynn as the only
“... noteworthy ... Hall of Fame pitchers (who) pitched into their 40s.”
The verdict? Clemens leads them all in winning percentage,
earned run average and WHIP.
Clemens is arguably the best of all time, a first ballot
Hall of Famer. But this report does nothing to support his claims of innocence.
The only thing guaranteed when the members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America turn in their Hall of Fame ballots is that hype will be more valued than talent, hitters will take a back seat to sluggers, grudges will be held and changes in the game will cause the worthy to be left out.
Not that this should come as a surprise. As we have reported in this space, great careers do not guarantee easy admission. It took Al Simmons — 307 HR, 1,827 RBI, .334 average and 2,927 hits — eight election cycles to make it. For Harry Heilmann — .342 average, 1,539 RBI and 2,660 hits — it was an 11-year wait. Even Rogers Hornsby had to wait. After hitting 301 home runs and a career .358 batting average, Hornsby was named on only 17.6 percent of the ballots in 1938 and none the year before. He eventually made it in 1942.
The ballots were sent this week.
Hall of Famers
Bert Blyleven — His career winning percentage of .534 is more a testament to the teams he played for then his ability on the mound. Over his 22-year career, the six teams he played for won .501 percent (1826-1820) of their games. His 3.31 era puts him in the category with Hall of Famers Lefty Gomez (3.34), Ferguson Jenkins (3.34) and Don Sutton (3.26), but he was a much better strikeout pitcher with 3,701 Ks— fifth all time.
Andre Dawson — One has to wonder how long the Hawk would have to wait if he hadn’t played his first 11 years in Montreal. Dawson is one of six men in baseball history who have hit at least 300 home runs (438) and stole 300 bases (314). He drove in 1,591 RBI, won eight Gold Gloves in nine years and was the National League MVP for the last place Cubs in 1987.
Rich Gossage — In the days before relievers became closers and when saves were actually earned, Gossage was a terrifying presence on the mound who victimized hitters with a devastating fastball. Though his 310 saves currently ranks him 17th, at the time of his retirement only three men had recorded more. Add in his 2.05 ERA over a 10-year span — not including his one season as a starter in 1976 — and his numbers reach legendary status.
Jim Rice — Rice didn’t play very long (16 years) and didn’t exactly endear himself to the voters — this will be his 14th year on the ballot — but what he did on the field through out the 1970s and ’80s was exemplary. Rice finished with 373 home runs and 1,451 RBI during a time when 35 home runs and 100 RBI put players in positions to lead the league. Rice finished first in home runs three times and RBI twice. He was the American League MVP in 1978 and for his career averaged 30 home runs, 113 RBI and hit .298.
All-Stars (Close calls)
Mark McGwire — A big hitter who thrived in era of offensive explosion, Big Mac was a average-at-best fielder with no speed and mediocre batting average (.263). Eighth all time with 583 home runs, McGwire is loved by fans and writers who see him as one of the saviors of the national game. At least they did until his embarrassing testimony before Congress.
Jack Morris — Morris was the winningest pitcher in the ’80s and one of the game’s best big game performers. His 3.90 ERA is a bit high, but his 254 wins, 2,478 strike outs stand out in an impressive career. One of the last ironman pitchers, he tossed 175 complete games while averaged 241 innings pitched. His 14 opening day starts is the most since Walter Johnson.
Tim Raines — In his first year of eligibility, the slap hitting, base-stealing wizard will make voters think. His 808 stolen bases (fifth all time), 2,605 hits, 1,571 runs (46th) and .294 average deem serious consideration. Compari-sons with Hall of Famer Lou Brock are favorable. Brock tops Raines in stolen bases, runs, hits, doubles and triples. Raines leads in home runs and RBI. He also struck out less, was caught stealing fewer time and walked nearly twice as much.
Lee Smith — Though Smith benefited from playing in the modern era of relievers, finishing first in games finished and second in saves says something. He was either first or second in saves eight times, won the Rolaids Relief Man of the Year Award three times and was named to seven All Star teams.
Starters (Solid, but …)
Harold Baines — Good hitter who stock piled numbers over a long career. 384 home runs, 2,866 hits, 1,628 RBI resulted in 5.3 percent of the vote last year.
Dave Concepcion — The light-hitting middle infielder with a slick glove (five Gold Gloves) and 321 stolen bases was a not-so-poor man’s Ozzie Smith.
David Justice — His 305 home runs, 1,017 RBI, 929 runs and a career .279 average made for a good, but not great career. His mistreatment of Halle Berry also costs him BIG TIME.
Don Mattingly — Over a six-year span, Donnie Baseball was one of the game’s best, averaging 26.6 home runs, 114 RBI, 96.8 runs while hitting .326. Over the next six years he never hit more than 17 home runs or drove in more than 89 runs and his average plummeted 40 points.
Dale Murphy — The two-time MVP was the face of the Atlanta Braves during the 1980s. From 1978 to 1989, Murphy averaged 149 games played, 88 runs scored, 29 home runs, 88 RBI and a .269 batting average. His five Gold Gloves attest to his overall athletic ability.
Robb Nen — Effective while he lasted, his 314 saves ranked 15th all-time. Career cut short after only 10 seasons.
Dave Parker — Between 1975 and 1979, the Cobra never hit lower than .308 and averaged 22 home runs and 98 RBI. The seven-time All Star bounced back in the ’80s, but never completely regained his form. His totals — 2,712 hits, 339 home runs, 1,493 RBI and three Gold Gloves — show just how good he was and what could have been.
Alan Trammell — Neither a hitter like Cal Ripken Jr. nor a glove man like Ozzie Smith, Trammell carved out a long career as second best at both. His four Gold Gloves, .285 batting average and 185 home runs would have set a standard in almost any other era.
Bench Players (Nice careers)
Brady Anderson — Cal’s best friend went from 16 home runs in 1995 to 50 a season later. Any guesses how?
Rod Beck — Popular player saved 286 games in 13 seasons.
Shawon Dunston — Role player through 18 MLB seasons.
Chuck Finley — Five-time All-Star was a quality starter who won 15 games seven times.
Travis Fryman — Four All-Star games in first six years hinted at talent. Out of baseball after 13 years.
Tommy John — More famous for the surgery that bears his name. Won 288 games in 26-year career.
Chuck Knoblauch — Rookie of the Year and All-Star second sacker in Minnesota crumbled under the pressure in New York.
Jose Rijo — Solid pitcher whose career was cut short by injury.
Todd Stottlemyre — Won two World Series with Toronto.
The 2007 class for the Hockey Hall of Fame — Mark Messier, Scott Stevens, Ron Francis and Al MacInnis — was a no-brainer.
With Steve Yzerman, Brett Hull, Luc Robitaille, Dave Andreychuk and Brian Leetch up for enshrinement, the 2009 class won’t leave much room for discussion either.
Which leaves next year for a rare chance to complain about who was let in and who was denied. How will international success play into the decision? Will a couple of borderline goalies make the cut? Is this finally going to be the year for a Russian legend after a decade of waiting?
Glenn Anderson (retired 1996) — Anderson’s career was a mix of big expectations and overlooked accomplishments. The four-time All-Star came into the league with comparisons to Guy Lafleur and Rocket Richard, but without their skating or stick-handling ability. Even though he scored 1,099 points in his 17-year career, Anderson has always been overshadowed by his more-famous teammates. Anderson lifted the cup five times — four with the legendary Oilers team — and finished fifth in playoff goals scored (93), fourth in points (214) and seventh in assists (121).
Pavel Bure (2003) — Bure may have begun his career in the worst way possible: He was too good too early. After his rookie season in the NHL, Bure put together back-to-back 60 goal seasons and expectations ran wild as it seemed he was living up to his “Russian Rocket” nickname. Bure’s problem was not a strong game but a weak body. The next season he played in only 44 games and 15 the year after. When healthy, he remained one of the league’s top scoring threats, but that wasn’t often enough as his playing time bounced around from the full 82 games during the 1997-98 season to only 11 the next. After 13 seasons, Bure was finished, but still lit the lamp 437 times and scored 779 points in 702 games.
Dino Ciccarelli (2003) — There may not have been a tougher man in the NHL. Standing only 5-feet-10-inches tall and weighing only 180 pounds — he may have been shorter and lighter —, the slight forward made his living in the toughest area on the ice. Primarily a pest in the crease, Dino scored 608 goals, chipped in 592 assists and spent 1,429 minutes in the penalty box while battling much larger men. Former player Neil Sheehy summed up Ciccarelli’s style saying, “He’s like a fly that won’t go away. He’s buzzing around your nose and mouth, you keep swatting at him, but he won’t go away.” His behavior on the ice won him a legion of fans, but his bad boy behavior off the ice won him a ticket out of Minnesota.
Doug Gilmour (2003) — Nicknamed “Killer” by former teammate Brian Sutter, the diminutive Gilmour was one of the game’s best two-way players, and to this day remains an icon in the center of the hockey universe, Toronto. Playing with an intensity that gave birth to the nickname and made believers out of scouts who saw his 5-foot-9-inch, 150-pound frame as being to small for the NHL, Gilmour willed himself to 450 goals, 1,414 points (No. 16 all time) and 964 assists (No. 12). Most impressive was his +132 meaning his teams scored 132 more points when he was on the ice then not.
Phil Housley (2003) — Housley was a six-time All-Star who finished as the 19th greatest assist man in history. While not necessarily a monster number, when compared to his fellow defenseman, the St. Paul native was one of the best. Fourth in goals, fifth in assists and fourth in points, Housley was one of the greatest American defenseman, but was shut out of the Norris Trophy by Ray Bourque, Paul Coffey, Chris Chelios and Brian Leetch.
Igor Larionov (2004) — Recognized as one of the game’s smartest players, the Russian Gretzky was one of the world’s best even before embarking on his 14-year NHL career. As the star of the famed KLM line on the dominating Central Red Army team, Larionov won two Olympic gold medals and four World Championships. In his eight years with CSKA Moscow, the team was the USSR champion every year. Though misused quite a bit during his NHL career, he still managed 169 goals, 475 assists and 644 points while compiling a +/- raing of 104.
Sergei Makarov (1997) — Before Larionov there was Makarov. The seven-time World Champion helped open the door for Soviet athletes into the NHL. Makarov scored 710 points in 519 games for the Central Red Army team and Traktor Chelyabinsk while winning 11 national championships and leading the Soviet League in scoring nine times. He also claimed one Olympic gold medal and one silver medal. Makarov played five full seasons in the NHL ending with 134 goals and 250 assists.
Adam Oates (2004) — For the guy who was jokingly called a “stumpy, heavy-footed, poor-shooting and no-skating kid” by his college coach, Oates went on to become one of the NHL’s greatest passers, racking up 1,079 assists (sixth all time). Though his point totals increased each season with Detroit, it was in St. Louis where he broke out. Feeding Brett Hull on his wing, he had two straight 100 point scoring seasons, while Hull racked up 228 goals in 231 games. His 1,420 points puts him No. 15 on the all time list.
Goalies Mike Richter (2003), Rogie Vachon (1982) and Mike Vernon (2002). While Richter had 301 wins in 15 years with the Rangers and Vachon was the anchor for three Stanley Cup teams, Vernon leads the group with 385 wins — good for 10th all time. Though he won the Conn Smythe Trophy in 1997, he is best known for his fight with fellow goalie Patrick Roy that same season.
The Hockey Hall of Fame allows just four entrants per year, which offers plenty of room for debate. Vernon was the best goalie of the bunch, but was always good but not great, and was traded the following year to make room for Chris Osgood. Bure burned out to fast, and Anderson has been hidden behind Hall of Fame teammates Wayne Gretzky, Mark Messier, Grant Fuhr, Paul Coffey and Jari Kurri. Housley was outstanding but may have to wait a few years, and Makarov’s short NHL career may have already cost him. That leaves Oates, Larionov, Gilmour and Ciccarelli in the class of 2008.
