Earlier this year, Tiger Woods passed the great Walter Hagen and moved into second place on the all-time list of Major Championship winners. His wins in the British Open and the PGA Championship were the 11th and 12th Major victories of his career, moving him past Hagen and leaving him six behind Jack Nicklaus, who compiled an impressive, and up until Tiger burst on to the scene, some said unbreakable record of 18 wins in Majors.

This movement up the record books has led golf fans to wonder just how many Majors Tiger can win. Can he approach Nicklaus? Pass him? If he can, just how many Major victories is it reasonable to expect out of him?

THE INTANGIBLES:

1) Fixing his mechanics. When Tiger Woods burst on to the scene, after a specatacular career as an amateur golfer, he had immediate success, winning six PGA tournaments, including one Major, his first two years on tour. He then suffered through a (for him) unsuccesful year, winning just one tournament and no Majors in his third year on the tour, in 1998, as he completely retooled his swing.

Many experts questioned the wisdom of tinkering with a successful approach, but it paid dividends the following two years, when Woods' new, more consistent swing won him 17 PGA tournaments, including four more Majors.

2) Steely resolve. As Tiger heads into his thirties, he finds himself a married man. If and when he and wife Elin have children, will that take away some of the drive and focus that has led this golfer to be among the hungriest ever? Jack Nicklaus has admitted that family concerns became more important than golf for a good part of the middle of his career.

Only time will tell if Tiger Woods will find his focus on things other than golf. It would certainly be understandable, especially if he has children, but considering his past history, and the knowledge that until he passes Nicklaus, he will never be considered the best ever, it seems not unreasonable to assume his desire will remain strong.

THE NUMBERS:

Like all sports, golf has changed immeasurably over the years. For the purpose of comparison, I looked at all golfers who have won at least four Major Championships in their career, with the majority of those wins coming in the last fifty years. There were ten men who fit in that category:

Winners of at least 4 Majors in the last 50 years:
Jack Nicklaus - 18 majors
Tiger Woods - 12 majors
Gary Player - 9 Majors
Tom Watson - 8 Majors
Arnold Palmer - 7 Majors
Nick Faldo - 6 Majors
Lee Trevino - 6 Majors
Seve Ballesteros - 5 Majors
Peter Thomson - 5 Majors
Ray Floyd - 4 Majors

I then divided each golfer's Major victories into the number he won during each five-year span, from age 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, and 45-49.

A few numbers jump out at you right away. Tiger Woods won 5 Majors between age 20 and age 24, the most ever. Jack Nicklaus was the only other golfer to win more than two, winning three.

Tiger also won 5 Majors from age 25 through 29, again the most ever for that age group. Once again, Jack Nicklaus was second in that category, with four, the only other golfer to win more than three from age 25-29.

In the age group of 30-34, Nicklaus, Watson and Palmer all won five Majors, with Faldo and Trevino each winning four apiece, leading you to assume that is the five-year period when most top golfers are in their prime. Looking at the numbers appears to bear that out. Here are the totals for the above winners with the exception of Woods, since he is just 30 and thus only fits into the first two categories:

Major Wins Age 20-24: 7 = 10%
Major Wins Age 25-29: 19=28%
Major Wins Age 30-34: 27=40%
Major Wins Age 35-39: 9 = 13%
Major Wins Age 40-44: 5 = 7%
Major Wins Age 45-49: 1 = 2%

What do these numbers tell us? It's probably a safe bet to assume Tiger Woods will outperform the averages listed above, since he did exactly that in each of the two 5-year periods of his career that he has completed. But even if you assume he won't outperform those numbers, that he will simply fall within the percentages listed for each 5-year period, you can learn a lot.

The totals for the nine most successful golfers of the last fifty years listed above show that they won a total of 38% of their Majors before reaching age thirty. If you assign that number to Tiger Woods, that means his 10 Major victories before age thirty (he has a total of 12 Major wins, but two of them came this year, after his 30th birthday) will comprise 38% of the total number of Majors he will win by the time his career is over.

By that extrapolation, Tiger Woods will win the incredible total of 26 Majors by the time he is finished with competitive golf, shattering the record set by Nicklaus and possibly setting a standard of excellence considered as unreachable in golf as DiMaggio's 56-game hit streak in baseball.

Impossible? Who knows, but if you enjoy golf, it might be wise to keep a close eye on the man who is well on his way to rewriting the record book in his sport.

Remember, the 26 Majors the statistics say Tiger Woods will win are only accurate if you assume he will fall right in the middle of the numbers for each 5-year period from now until he's finished as a competitive player, when in reality he has outperformed those numbers for each of the two 5-year periods he has thus far completed. I'm betting he will win more than 26. Thirty seems like a nice, round number to me. Don't count it out.

----------So Roger Clemens was zipping fastballs past his son Koby during his first workout after signing with Houston for the rest of the season. That must go a long way toward reassuring the Astros their money is being well-spent. If Clemens faces a team of 19 year-old first-year professionals during the September stretch run, he will be untouchable.  

 

 

----------Here's a brain-teaser for you. I saw the end of the National Spelling Bee Thursday night on ABC (I know, I know, spelling is not a sport. Too bad, it's my post and if I had to watch it I'm at least going to get some mileage out of it). How is it possible that a Canadian girl was one of the final two contestants in the "National Spelling Bee?" It turns out students from any country where English is spoken are eligible. Wouldn't that make it the World Spelling Bee? Why is it the World Series is limited to teams from the U.S. and Canada, but the National Spelling Bee is open to anyone in the world?

 

  

----------Last week Washington Nationals manager Frank Robinson broke down in tears during his postgame press conference after having to remove catcher Matthew LeCroy in the middle of an inning. LeCroy had allowed seven stolen bases and made two throwing errors. Given how poorly the Nationals have played this season, it's a wonder Robinson isn't crying after every game. And what does that say about Kansas City manager Buddy Bell? If Robinson is in tears when he's ten games under .500, shouldn't Bell be having a hysterical fit or something with the Royals 27 games under?

 

 

----------The Boston Bruins are rapidly becoming the laughingstock of the NHL, which is like being the heaviest chick at the fat farm. First the Bruins trade away the MVP-caliber Joe Thornton. Then they miss the playoffs, which is not easy to do. You almost have to forget to show up to miss the playoffs in the NHL. Then they fire general manager Mike O'Connell, ignoring the fact that since they are so bad and have an owner unwilling to spend the money required to field a contender they might struggle to find a replacement. Finally, they find a suitable candidate for the GM position in Peter Chiarelli. Problem is, he's under contract in Ottawa until July 15. So, the Bruins have a GM who will be working for someone else the next six weeks. Amazing.

----------We are now one-third of the way through the major league season and still no managers have been fired. I figure as soon as one gets it, the axe is going to fall on probably three or four more in rapid succession.

 

----------The big controversy at the Memorial, at least in the early rounds, was over the bunker rakes. Jack Nicklaus wanted to make the bunkers more punitive, so the rakes were supplied with two inches between the tines rather than the usual one inch. The result? It's much more difficult for the players to make the ball do what they want it to do when they're playing out of the sand. Jeez. All the equipment advances in recent years making the game easier for the pros, and the players cry about bunker rakes. I wonder what Bobby Jones would have had to say about that?

 

 

----------Do you think Dontelle Willis is counting the hours until he gets released from the prison that has become the Florida Marlins? I don't know where he's going to end up, but wherever it is, it's bound to be a better situation than the one he's in right now.