Contraray to what many people seem to believe, it is possible for the New York Giants to defeat the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII February 3 in Glendale, Arizona. The two teams met barely more than a month ago in the regular season finale and New England was forced to come back in the second half to post a three-point win.
Of course, come back they did, with a 22-0 run over a 23 minute stretch of the third and fourth quarters to erase a twelve point deficit, before giving up one final Giants touchdown, resulting in the 38-35 final score.
The general consensus seems to be that this game was the one that propelled the Giants into becoming the team that marched through the NFC playoff field with three straight road wins and gave them the confidence to believe they can be the team to dethrone the undefeated Pats. Of course they can, and this is how.
Please allow me to present the Top Ten Ways the Giants can Defeat New England in Super Bowl XLII:
10) Kidnap Bill Belichick and replace him with the real Darth Vader to prowl the New England sideline.
The success of this one depends upon when the kidnapping gets accomplished. If it's after Belichick and company has finished installing the game plan for Sunday, which probably has already happened, it may be too late.
9) Duct-tape the mouth of every Giants player shut and hope the Patriots forget what Osi and Plaxico already said.
Why does every team seem to feel the need to poke the bear? It's what happens on the field that matters, and talking smack then losing just makes players look silly.
8) Recruit Mother Nature to run an Alberta Clipper down over Glendale, Arizona.
The more snow the better for New York, ruining the field and slowing the New England receivers to a crawl. In fact, just petition the league to move the game to Green Bay.
7) Sneak Peyton Manning onto the field in Eli's uniform.
This one's debatable as well, since Peyton's track record against the Pats is spotty at best, but he's at least a better bet than little brother Eli, who will be mincemeat after New England has two weeks to prepare defensive schemes for him.
6) Buy Stephen Gostkowski a copy of Lawrence Tynes' new book, The Art of Kicking Chip-Shot Field Goals. If this isn't possible, somehow force Gostkowski to watch a continuous loop of the two easy field goals Tynes missed against Green Bay, hoping the bad kicking form will subliminally insert itself into Gostkowski's brain.
5) Rent every available copy of Remember the Titans, Rocky, and every other inspirational movie the Giants can find.
Then hire a crane to lift them and dump them all on top of the Patriots players while they're in a meeting. Might slow 'em down a little.
4) Recruit Lawrence Taylor to hire hookers for all the Patriots players every night until the game.
The exception, of course, is Tom Brady. Don't even bother trying it with him, he has Giselle; what would he want with a hooker? The plan for Brady is listed further down.
3) Lure all the Patriots wide receivers to University of Phoenix Stadium hours before the game.
As the crew is sliding the removable field into position, get the receivers to look in the other direction in the hopes the field will run them over. Kind of like what happened to Vince Coleman with the tarp, only on a much bigger scale.
2) Reinstall a boot on Tom Brady's foot while he's sleeping.
Not a plastic protective boot either. Make it the Denver Boot that the police use to render cars undrivable. This might keep him from sliding around in the pocket away from New York's pass rush.
1) Distract Brady.
And not with those silly Giselle masks they were handing out in New York either. He's way too focused to even notice those. They need to get photos o####iselle Bundchen-Bridget Moynihan lesbian affair. I know they're probably not readily available, but that would likely be enough to crack even Tom Brady's legendary focus. It's certainly cracked mine.
A new trend has sprung up seemingly overnight in the normally staid NFL, an organization where change usually holds all the appeal of an all-you-can-eat steak dinner to Paris Hilton. Suddenly teams are holding on to assistant coaches they feel are in danger of being plucked for the head jobs in other cities by giving them a sexy new title and substantial raises.
"Head Coach In Waiting." This sounds like a job you could sink your teeth into, doesn't it? You get nearly all the exposure that the head coach gets, not to mention nearly all the money, with little or none of the risk. The team screws up? It's the head coach who walks the plank, not the head coach in waiting, and before the poor guy who used to be your boss hits the water, you're now the man with the plan, the big cheese.
In Indianapolis, longtime assistant Jim Caldwell has been handed the plum title, as has offensive coordinator Jason Garrett in Dallas. Tony Dungy in Indianapolis no doubt has little concern about the possibility of being pushed out by his "Assistant Head Coach," both due to the fact that Dungy has achieved almost legendary status as a head coach as well as the fact that he says he has no intention of coaching much longer anyway.
But in Dallas, how comfortable can Wade Phillips be knowing his replacement has already been picked out and is hauling down a paycheck almost as big as his? Phillips has only been in town one year himself, and he doesn't exactly work for an owner who is known for having lots of patience. Jerry Jones is no Dan Snyder, but he's a man who has to be disappointed that his team, the top seed in the NFC, got knocked off at home in their first playoff game of 2007 and that his team hasn't won a playoff game of any kind in thirteen years.
For Garrett, on the other hand, it's an ideal situation. He can continue to learn and soak up information for when his turn to steer the boat arrives, and when it does, he inherits a much better situation than he would have in either Washington or Atlanta. In the meantime, he gets paid like a head coach, better than many, in fact, and doesn't have to deal with any of the hassles of the job.
Where do I apply? Surely there's a team somewhere that doesn't mind that I've never actually played football, unless you count splitting my knee open on a rock when my best friend took me down with an open-field tackle in the front yard when we were ten years old. Never coached football either. Of course I did lead the Patriots to an undefeated season in Madden 2003.
But I can stand on the sideline with a clipboard and look grave, covering my mouth with the board when saying anything so that none of the television cameras or spying teams can figure out what I'm saying, even if it's only "You want cream and sugar with that, coach?" I can shake my head and yell and scream when a bad call goes against my team, and give instructions to players who will only ignore what I say anyway, at least they will if they know what's good for them.
So if you're an NFL owner and you think I fit the bill; if you think maybe I have what it takes to be your next "Head Coach in Waiting," call me. As much fun as blogging is, I might be persuaded to come and work for you if the deal can be structured properly. Okay, Ill be honest - if you'll pay me, I'm there. Are you listening, Arthur Blank? I've never been to Atlanta, but I'm sure it's beautiful.
So where in the world is Eli Manning? You know, the Master of Inconsistency, the man New York Giants fans have come to know and feel incredibly conflicted about? The guy who was just as likely to cough up the football as throw it away, or to toss a key interception as laser a spiral through three defenders into his receiver's breadbasket?
Who the heck was that guy in the Number 10 Giants jersey Sunday night? Maybe the real reason Peyton Manning wasn't in the stands at frozen Lambeau Field wasn't because he was afraid of jynxing his little brother as the media folks told us; maybe it was because he snuck into the locker room before the game and pretended to be Eli.
Let's face it - the reason you didn't pick the Giants over Green Bay is because you didn't trust Eli to hold on to the ball when the temperatures plummeted below zero and the wind was whipping across the Wisconsin night. But he made it look almost easy, didn't he?
The Packers, with their first-ballot Hall of Fame quarterback, the guy who has thrown so many footballs under poor weather conditions that you figured Sunday night would be a walk in the park, couldn't spark the offense all night with the exception of one big play. The Giants, on the other hand, ran their offense like it was a 60 degree September afternoon in the Meadowlands.
What gives? Is it possible that Eli Manning has finally turned the corner and is in the process of blossoming into the elite quarterback New Yorkers have expected him to be? Or is this another tantalizing glimpse of what could be, only to be followed up by an implosion on football's biggest stage February 4?
Starting with the Giants hard-fought loss to the Patriots in the regular-season finale, and followed up with the three playoff games since, here are Eli Manning's numbers:
Is it possible that these numbers, so staggeringly different from each other, could have been put up by the same person? And if they were, what does it say for the Super Bowl showdown with New England on February 4? The Giants are double-digit underdogs, but if Manning can continue his recent run of outstanding production, this will be a game much more competitive than many people expect.
It might be a bit of an overstatement to say Eli Manning's future in New York will be determined by this one upcoming game, but if he is able to perform the way he has for the past month, it will go a long way toward erasing the view people have of him as Peyton's less-accomplished brother and giving him his own well-earned reputation.
- What is the over/under on how many Cowboy losses it will take next fall before the "Fire Phillips" bandwagon gets rolling full steam? Three? One? Jason Garrett has completed his whirlwind head coaching interview tour and decided to stay in Dallas as Assistant Head Coach at a salary close to the $3 million a year Wade Phillips makes. Maybe Phillips isn't walking the plank just yet, but he must feel the swords nudging him in the back, at least a little.
- Does Dallas have the best strip clubs of any NFL city, or just the most? Pacman Jones, the man who can't seem to stay out of the fine establishments, or even stay out of trouble when he's in them, has said he would like to leave Tennessee and move on to the Cowboys. This from a guy who isn't even guaranteed a reinstatement to the NFL by Roger Goodell unless he can show he is able to stay out of trouble. His record of six arrests in less than three years says that's not a winning bet.
- Does Peyton Manning go to younger brother Eli now for advice about playing the quarterback position? And will the chairs for Sunday dinner at the Archie Manning residence get moved around at all now that Eli is still in the Super Bowl hunt and Peyton is playing golf? Does Eli get to sit at the adult table and Peyton at the card table with the kiddies?
- Wouldn't it be funny if Anny Grant, the young girl who was booed at the RCA Dome for wearing a Patriots jersey last Sunday, wore a Colts jersey to Gillette Stadium this afternoon? She earned a lot of admirers for her good-natured response to her Indianapolis reception, including Patriots owner Robert Kraft, who invited her and her entire family to be his guest at the AFC Championship game in Foxboro. She reportedly will take part in the pregame coin toss. Imagine the stunned silence if she were to walk out on the field in a Peyton Manning jersey....just a thought.
- Is Roger Clemens regretting his quick boast that he would be happy to testify at a Congressional hearing on the steroids mess? After seeing what happened with Congress and Miguel Tejada, who isn't even in the country right now, you would think the last place Clemens would want to be is Capitol Hill. He can retain all the ex-Clinton lawyers he wants, but they won't be able to protect him much if he perjures himself.
- Will the fact that the Packers practiced this week with frozen footballs give them a leg up on the Giants at frigid Lambeau Field tonight? The temperature will be close to zero by gametime, so you can be sure there will be plenty of frozen balls in Green Bay. And if practicing with frozen footballs results in a win for the Packers, will they use frozen turkeys next time, figuring more is better?
- Will the Atlanta Falcons ever be able to convince anyone to accept their vacant head coaching position? The latest to interview for the job is Vikings defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. Is the man trying to punish himself for some unknown transgression? Regardless, even the Miami Dolphins now have a head man, and they won only one game last year.
- Are the San Diego Chargers screwed if Philip Rivers can't play or goes down against New England? Absolutely not. If you compare career statistics for Rivers and Billy Volek, the Chargers backup, you find they are remarkably similar in many respects, such as the following:
Games played - Rivers 36, Volek 30
Completion percentage - Rivers 60.8%, Volek 59.7%
Touchdown percentage and interception percentage - Rivers 4.6% and 2.6%, Volek 4.9% and 2.6%
Yards per attempt - Rivers 7.0, Volek 6.6
Quarterback rating - Rivers 86.6, Volek 84.9
In short, the Chargers are better off with Rivers thanks to intangibles like his fiery attitude. Plus, it's debatable how much Volek would be affected by the rust of not having played a lot besides the fourth quarter last week - the Patriots have been known to confuse guys with a lot more game experience than Volek.
But if push comes to shove and Rivers is unable to go, San Diego has a guy who is more than capable of running the team, as he proved last weekend in the big comeback against Indianapolis.
People seem to have this stereotype of professional football players as big, tough he-men, supermen almost, and why wouldn't they? It's difficult to get a true appreciation for how big these guys are when you see them on TV, since they're all equally mammoth so it skews the perspective, almost like listening to a presidential debate.
But if you've ever seen an NFL player up close, say walking through an airport or stealing your girlfriend, you begin to get a real appreciation for just how big these people really are. Their forearms are bigger than your thighs; hell, if you're anything like me, their wrists are probably bigger than your thighs. Unless of course we're talking about the placekicker, in which you can disregard all of the above.
Anyway, when you see how big NFL players really are, you naturally assume they are tough as nails, and in a lot of cases this is undoubtedly true (Quick aside - when I was in college, a backup linebacker lived in my dorm, and this guy used to routinely smash chips out of the building's concrete block construction using nothing but his head! And this was a backup player on a college team).
Leave it to Terrell Owens to break another perception barrier, shattering our notion of football players as semi-indestructible automatons by weeping like a little girl after the Dallas Cowboys lost to the New York Giants at home last Sunday. And what caused the tears to flow? It wasn't the trauma of losing the game, everyone knows T.O. isn't the most team-oriented guy in the world. Rather, it was the thought that, sniff, sob, the team's quarterback, Tony Romo, would be forced to shoulder a disproportionate share of the blame.
Oh, the humanity! The sheer unfairness of it all! But guess what, T.O.? That's the way it is in sports. Always has been, always will be. Being the quarterback in football is like being the pitcher in baseball or the goaltender in hockey - if your team loses, you get to be the goat. This is the flip side of the disproportionate adulation those guys get when they win; why Tony Romo dates Jessica Simpson while his offensive linemen have to settle for Romo buying them a steak dinner if he so chooses.
But finally we get to my point, which I almost forgot about. Anny Grant, a fourteen year old girl no one had ever heard of five days ago, is now the subject of national media attention for being the anti-T.O. When booed by a stadium full of rabid Colts fans at the RCA Dome for wearing a Patriots jersey while being honored as a Punt, Pass and Kick winner, this little girl shrugged off the negative attention with a smile.
Terrell Owens, big, tough football player, can't make it through a media session without weeping like #### Vermeil at a poetry reading, and this young girl shrugs off a reception from 60,000 screaming people that most of us would find at least a little disconcerting.
What does this mean in the grand scheme of things? Not much, really, but maybe the put-down people use, when they say so-and-so cried like a little girl, needs to be reworked and updated. How about this? "Joe cried like T.O. when he got that speeding ticket. It was a riot!"
Lose your starting quarterback? Lose your starting running back, and the guy who happens to be the NFL rushing champ? Find yourself trailing in the fourth quarter to the defending Super Bowl champs, in their own building, with the aforementioned critical guys sitting on the sideline? Psssht. Who cares?
Certainly not the San Diego Chargers, who waltzed into Indianapolis and closed down the RCA Dome, beating Indy for the second time this year and ending the Colts season in one of the most physical, intense, emotionally charged games of the season. Indianapolis went 0-2 against San Diego this season, 13-2 against everyone else.
You say you like a little offense? How does 857 yards of total offense between the two teams grab you, including 714 through the air? That doesn't even include the 309 return yards the two teams totaled up. If you're keeping score at home, that adds up to 1023 yards of the football moving up and down the field, or well over a half-mile of ground that was covered inside the old building.
Lead changes? This game had all the earmarks of the classic, "Whoever gets the ball last wins" theory of offensive football and even though Indianapolis did get the ball last, they were unable to mount the one final touchdown drive that would have kept their season alive.
A few observations after watching maybe the most entertaining football game of the season:
1) The San Diego backfield during the game-winning fourth quarter drive consisted of Billy Volek under center and Michael Turner at tailback. Who would have imagined the game playing out like that? Furthermore, who would have imagined the Chargers engineering a game-winning drive under those conditions?
2) The Colts lost a few guys to injury during this hard-hitting game, too. In fact, on the last-gasp possession for the Colts as time ran out in the fourth quarter, as Peyton Manning faced a do-or-die fourth and five near midfield, both Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne were standing on the Indy sideline, unable to continue. Manning tried to connect with old reliable, Dallas Clark, but the ball sailed just off his fingertips.
3) After LaDainian Tomlinson had departed wth a knee injury, the announcing crew was bemoaning what a terrible loss it was to the Chargers. At the time, Michael Turner, Tomlinson's replacement, had carried the ball six times for 43 yards, a 7.2 yard average! Turner ended the game with 17 carries for 71 yards and a 4.2 average. Not bad for a backup.
4) Twice the Chargers started a drive without eleven men on the field. The first time, in the first half, they had just ten men on the field and had to burn a precious timeout. The second time, in the second half, they had twelve and got whisted for a penalty. These were not substitution mistakes, they were errors as the offensive unit was taking the field to start a drive. San Diego cannot afford these kinds of mistakes next weekend in New England if they want to have a chance to get to Arizona in three weeks.
5) I don't know if a punter ever gets a game ball, but Mike Scifres may well have saved San Diego's season when he boomed a 68 yard punt from his own end zone late in the fourth quarter. The Chargers were nursing the slim, 28-24 lead and Scifres's punt forced Indianapolis to start their final drive all the way back on their own 32 yard line. An average punt of around 40 yards would have given Manning and the Colts the ball on San Diego's side of the field, where the ending of the game may have been dramatically different.
6) While many people were assuming a Patriots-Colts AFC Championship Game rematch, the Chargers-Pats will be a playoff rematch too. The Pats eliminated the Chargers last season in San Diego in the Divisional Round in a game the Chargers still view as a missed opportunity. Next Sunday's game in Foxboro could be a classic.
As someone said in one of the seemingly thousands of stories I've read since Sunday night about the upcoming NFL Divisional Round playoff games, we are now down to probably the eight best teams in the league for this season.
Since it is a given that any given team can beat any other given team on any given Sunday, provided of course the Dolphins aren't one of those teams, it becomes even more important to look at the numbers if you want to attempt to divine who will be the four teams competing next weekend in the Conference Championship games.
My theory is that by this point in the year, after a sixteen game regular season and one round of playoffs, the record that a team has forged against quality competition, that is, any team with a record over .500 for the season, will be as good an indicator as any of how that team will fare in games against, well, quality opposition, which is what all eight of the remaining teams are.
This theory worked pretty well last week, allowing me to go four for four with picks on the Wild Card Round. Here are the updated numbers for each of the remaining teams in the playoffs, and how they fared against teams with a record of at least 9-8 this season:
1) New England Patriots 7-0 (1.000)
2) Green Bay Packers 3-1 (.750)
3) Dallas Cowboys 4-2 (.667)
4) Jacksonville Jaguars 5-3 (.625)
5) Indianapolis Colts 4-3 (.571)
6) San Diego Chargers 3-3 (.500)
7) Seattle Seahawks 2-2 (.500)
8) New York Giants 2-5 (.286)
If you read my previous "By the Numbers" post, published before last weekend's games, you may remember that these numbers are skewed just a bit by the fact that Indianapolis and Dallas both lost games against quality opposition in the final week of the regular season when the games had no bearing on their playoff scenarios. So if you eliminate those two losses for those teams, the list now looks a little more representative of what I believe to be realistic numbers:
1) New England Patriots 7-0 (1.000)
2) Dallas Cowboys 4-1 (.800)
3) Green Bay Packers 3-1 (.750)
4) Indianapolis Colts 4-2 (.667)
5) Jacksonville Jaguars 5-3 (.625)
6) San Diego Chargers 3-3 (.500)
7) Seattle Seahawks 2-2 (.500)
8) New York Giants 2-5 (.286)
A couple of items stand out right away. The Giants, although many people are picking them to upset Dallas thanks to their impressive road record this season and fine showing last week against Tampa Bay, will fall easily to the Cowboys. Dallas has not played particularly well the last few weeks, but Eli Manning is still too inconsistent to play a second road game in two weeks against a tough defense to advance.
All the other games look tough and close. Based on those numbers and a couple of other observations, here are the results you can expect this weekend:
Saturday, NFC: Seahawks 24, Packers 20 I know I picked Seattle for an early exit, but they showed a lot, especially on defense last week. Plus, Brett Favre, for as great a season as he has had, has been less impressive the last few weeks, protecting the ball with less enthusiasm than he did earlier in the year. I see a big turnover from Favre late in the game.
Saturday, AFC: Patriots 27, Jaguars 14 I like the Jags and I like David Garrard. He might just be the best quarterback nobody really knows in the NFL. But this isn't their year, New England's offense is just too explosive.
Sunday, AFC: Colts 35, Chargers 21 San Diego had one of the best second halves of the season of any team in the NFL, but I'm not sold on Philip Rivers yet in a big game against Peyton Manning and the Colts, in the RCA Dome.
It's finally NFL playoff time. The long, drawn out first act is over and it's time to move on to the speed round, where one bad game can mean months of regret and a team that gets hot at the right time can win it all.
There were plenty of surprises during the regular season, both pleasant ones and disappointments. The Bears, one season removed from a Super Bowl appearance, had their flaws exposed and finished just 7-9, tied with the Lions for last place in the NFC North. Likewise, the Saints, possibly the surprise of the year last year, slipped to 7-9 as well.
On the plus side of the surprise ledger, the Green Bay Packers rode their defense and the aging arm of Brett Favre to an impressive 13-3 mark and the second seed in the NFC, and in the AFC, the Cleveland Browns finished a surprising 10-6, tying Pittsburgh for first place in the North, although they fell victim to a numbers game and missed the playoffs entirely.
Now, though, the time has come to handicap the field of the twelve remaining teams as the annual tournament starts. For my money, the best way to judge a team's potential in a single-elimination format against the best of the best is to review their performance during the season against quality opposition, which I define as any team with a record better than .500, or any team that finished 9-7 or better.
This year, that group includes all the playoff teams plus the hard-luck Cleveland Browns. So, without further ado, here is each playoff team's record against quality opposition in 2007:
1) New England Patriots 7-0 (1.000)
2) Green Bay Packers 3-1 (.750)
3) Dallas Cowboys 4-2 (.667)
4) Pittsburgh Steelers 3-2 (.600)
5) Indianapolis Colts 4-3 (.571)
5) Jacksonville Jaguars 4-3 (.571)
7) San Diego Chargers 2-3 (.400)
7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2-3 (.400)
9) Tennessee Titans 2-4 (.333)
10) Seattle Seahawks 1-2 (.333)
11) Washington Redskins 2-5 (.286)
12) New York Giants 1-5 (.167)
A couple of things should be considered when looking at these numbers. The Colts and Cowboys both lost games against quality opponents in Week 17 who were fighting for their playoff lives, while neither team had anything but pride to play for. The value of those losses is questionable when applying the numbers to the playoffs, so if you eliminate them, the Cowboys improve to 4-1 against quality opposition, the second-best mark in the NFL, and the Colts improve to 4-2, moving them up to fourth.
Teams who should be especially concerned looking at those numbers include the Giants, who won only one game all year against a quality opponent, and the Seahawks, who played just three games all season against the best of the best, winning just one, that all the way back on September 9. The Steelers should also be hearing footsteps, as they started out 3-0 against quality opponents, before losing their last two. That, plus the injury bug which has hit Pittsburgh hard, will mean a short playoff run for the Steelers.
The second thing to consider when looking at playoff matchups is the difficulty of each team's schedule. A team that finished 10-6 with a difficult schedule should be better-prepared to face the rigors of the playoffs than a team with an identical record that played a lot of cupcakes.
To determine how tough each playoff contender's schedule was, I ranked every NFL franchise from 1 to 32 based on record. Teams with identical records were sorted by point differential, so the Bucs get ranked just ahead of the Redskins even though they both finished 9-7, by virtue of the fact that they outscored their opponents by a cumulative 64 points as opposed to only 24 for the 'Skins.
Once the teams were ranked 1-32, I went through each playoff contender's schedule game by game and added up the value of each opponent over the course of the season. The higher the final number, the more difficult the overall schedule. The results are surprising in some ways and not in others. Here are the results for each team's strength of schedule:
1) Washington Redskins 300
2) Jacksonville Jaguars 271
3) Indianapolis Colts 268
4) Tennessee Titans 267
5) New York Giants 264
6) Dallas Cowboys 258
7) New England Patriots 254
8) San Diego Chargers 248
9) Green Bay Packers 237
10) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 235
11) Pittsburgh Steelers 229
12) Seattle Seahawks 205
In terms of degree of difficulty, there is a huge difference between the schedule faced by the Washington Redskins and that faced by the Seahawks. In fact, mathematically speaking, the Redskins schedule was almost 10% tougher than any other playoff team.
But what does that mean? In one sense, you could say Washington is battle-hardened. On the other hand, having a difficult schedule isn't necessarily all that beneficial if you only go 2-5 against the best the opposition has to offer, as the 'Skins did.
By the same token, the fact that Seattle played a much easier schedule than anyone else doesn't necessarily mean they won't fare well in the playoffs - it's not their fault their schedule included a lot of cupcakes. The reason the Hawks will fall early has much more to do with the fact they only played three tough teams all year and only won once - on the very first weekend of the season.
It's an imperfect system, I know, but the best I could do, considering NORAD won't let me near their supercomputer any more after I crashed it crunching the numbers for my "What's in a Name" post. Hopefully they help you pick some winners.
Speaking of which, here are the results you can plan on for this weekend:
Remember how you felt way back during summer's heavy heat when your team played their fourth and final preseason game? You know, the one you couldn't wait to be over with so the regular season games could start - the games that actually meant something?
That's how Saturday night's season finale for the New England Patriots against the New York Football Giants strikes me. I don't really care about it, other than as a tuneup for the playoffs, and my big concern regarding this game is that nobody important on either roster gets injured playing in a game that doesn't matter.
But wait! Aren't I forgetting something? Undefeated season on the line, 16-0, never been done, 1972 Miami Dolphins, redemption for the team after Spygate, records, blah, blah, blah.
Am I the only one that doesn't care? Records, schmecords. The game is being broadcast on the NFL Network (which I don't have a subscription for) and now also on free television and it's the only league game being played on Saturday, so of course I'm going to watch - it's my day off and I'm glad to be able to see another Pats game. But this one doesn't mean any more to me than any of the others they've played this year, even though the team is one win away from a historic season, and here's why.
While a 16-0 mark would be an historic accomplishment, one of which every member of that team could someday be justifiably proud, in the grand scheme of things it holds absolutely no significance for the franchise in achieving their ultimate goal; that being getting to Glendale, Arizona in February, 2008 and winning the Super Bowl.
That, by the way, is the goal for which every single team aims during those two-a-day workouts in the sweltering August heat. That is the carrot each and every coaching staff uses to motivate their players. Granted, for some teams it is a much more realistic goal than for others, but if 32 franchises aren't looking toward the Super Bowl as they are preparing for the season, then the year is lost already.
If you look at the 2007 NFL season in those terms, then the New England Patriots have no more to play for Saturday night than do the New York Giants. Both teams are locked into their playoff slot, neither team's position in the AFC or NFC seedings will change with either a win or a loss.
Obviously, every Patriots fan wants to see a win, if only so the club will have done something no other team has ever accomplished, but even if they win Saturday night, unless the perfect regular season is followed up by a perfect playoff run, finishing 16-0 will ultimately have been no more impressive than finishing 15-1, or even 14-2, a record which would have locked up home-field advantage throughout the playoffs provided one of the losses had not been to the Indianapolis Colts.
The point of the sixteen games that make up the NFL season is to maximize your potential as a team, and if you're a playoff team, then the goal is to get as advantageous a playoff position as possible; i.e., become the number one seed in your conference. Once that has been accomplished, anything above and beyond is simply icing on the cake, so in those terms, 14-2 would be just as satisfying as 16-0.
Put another way, if the New England Patriots win the Super Bowl, a 16-0 season will be truly historic. It will be the sort of situation where everyone in the country can get sick and tired of seeing all the old geezers from that team for the next several decades being interviewed every time some team approaches midseason without a loss, like the old Miami Dolphins guys now.
But if they don't win the Super Bowl, finishing 16-0 will be just some odd statistical anomaly, in fact it will become an albatross around the necks of every player on the roster. "You were a Patriot in 2007? You were the guys that went 16-0 but couldn't seal the deal!" In that scenario, finishing 16-0 would be worse than finishing 15-1; much worse, in fact.
So, yes, there's pressure on the Patriots. But it's not a pressure that will or should be felt by the players on Saturday night. Win or lose, they will still own a first-round bye and home-field advantage. You want to get to Glendale? If you play in the AFC, come on up to Foxborough and let's get it on!
With the playoff picture beginning to take shape, it seemed a good time to take a look at some of the teams who will be in the "tournament," as Bill Parcells used to call it, fighting for a shot at a Super Bowl title.
Conventional wisdom seems to be that the Patriots will represent the AFC and either the Cowboys or possibly Green Bay will be the NFC team to make the trip to Glendale. But is that opinion based solely on won-lost records? The Pats have the best record in the AFC and the Cowboys have the best in the NFC, followed by the Packers.
But wins and losses can only tell you so much. If you're piling up wins against bad teams while struggling against good ones, that would seem to indicate a good possibility for an early exit from the playoffs. On the other hand,if you play a tough schedule against a lot of good teams, doesn't that seem to indicate a readiness to face the rigors of the playoffs, where by definition only the best teams participate?
To separate the wheat from the chaff, I broke down the schedules of each team that would be in the playoffs if they were to start this weekend. Obviously, things could change in the next three weeks, but I wanted to start now because, frankly, my curiosity got the best of me.
I looked at two factors for each team: strength of schedule, and record against quality opposition, which I defined as any opponent with a winning record to this point in the season - in other words, any opponent wth a 7-6 record or better. Some of the results are predictable, others are a little surprising.
Strength of Schedule - The combined record of all opponents for each team:
1 - San Diego Chargers - 91-78 (.539)
2 - Jacksonville Jaguars - 89-80 (.527)
3 - Indianapolis Colts - 88-81 (.521)
4 - Minnesota Vikings - 87-82 (.515)
5 - New Engand Patriots - 85-84 (.503)
6 - Dallas Cowboys - 84-85 (.497)
Green Bay Packers - 84-85 (.497)
8 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 83-86 (.491)
9 - New York Giants - 78-91 (.462)
10 - Pittsburgh Steelers - 77-92 (.456)
11 - Cleveland Browns - 75-94 (.444)
12 - Seattle Seahawks - 70-99 (.414)
If you look at strength of schedule, there appear to be three levels. The top four teams, San Diego, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Minnesota, played a slate of teams with a combined record well over .500. The next four, New England, Dallas, Green Bay, and Tampa Bay, all played opponents whose records combined to be just about .500. The final four, the New York Giants, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Seattle, have played a schedule considerably easier.
How will that affect a team's readiness for the playoffs? It would seem that a team with a relatively easy schedule should be able to build a winning record much easier, while a team with a difficult schedule has been battle-tested and logic would suggest should perform better in the playoffs.
But even within each team's schedule, there are very good opponents and very bad ones. The best indicator against future success against good teams, I believe, is how a team has performed over the course of the season against quality opponents. With that in mind, here is how each team has fared aganst quality opposition this season.
Record Against Quality Opponents:
1 - New England Patriots - 7-0 (1.000)
2 - Dallas Cowboys - 5-1 (.833)
3 - Green Bay Packers - 4-1 (.800)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 4-1 (.800)
5 - Indianapolis Colts - 5-2 (.714)
6 - Jacksonville Jaguars - 4-3 (.571)
7 - Minnesota Vikings - 3-4 (.429)
8 - San Diego Chargers - 2-4 (.333)
9 - Seattle Seahawks - 1-2 (.333)
10 - Cleveland Browns - 1-3 (.250)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 1-3 (.250)
12 - New York Giants - 0-4 (.000)
This set of numbers, I believe, tells a lot about some of the teams if you study it. Four teams, the Patriots, Colts, Jaguars, and Vikings, have played more than half their games thus far against quality opponents, telling me those teams may be more prepared for a playoff atmosphere than, say, the Seahawks, Browns, Bucs, or Giants, who have played four or less against quality opposition.
The teams in the bottom half of the above chart have built their records against largely inferior competition, leading me to believe each will suffer a quick exit, with the possible exception of the Vikings, who have played seven games against quality opposition, and who have been playing much better of late than they did early in the season.
Giants fans, in particular, should be terrified. The New York Football Giants have been perfect against the bad teams they have played, going 9-0, but they've also been Miami Dolphin perfect against quality opposition,going 0-4. There arent many sub-.500 teams in the playoffs, so look for an early exit for New York.
The biggest mystery teams to me are San Diego and Jacksonville. They are the two teams that have played the toughest overall schedule, but have both struggled against quality individual opponents, especially San Diego. How that will shake out in the playoffs is anyone's guess, but my opinion is it will probably add up to a relatively early exit for each.
There you go. Numbers can tell you whatever you want them to, I suppose,so what do they mean for your team? As a Patriots fan, I like what I see when I look at New England's numbers, but there are a hal####ozen teams with numbers that tell me they are legitimate threats to win it all. What do you think?
There was an interesting item in cnnsi.com's "Truth & Rumors" section today where Bill Parcells offered his take on parity in the NFL. The former Superbowl-winning head coach was quoted as saying "There is quite a bit of bad football being played. Some teams are just so noncompetitive...It doesn't look like much parity to me."
That little quote tells me two things:
1) Parcells is still paying attention to the NFL, even though he's not coaching anymore. Another comeback perhaps?
2) Parcells is another of the many sports fans who reads Bread and Circuses on Foxsports.com.
Two days ago, Dudski posted a piece on his blog entitled "Worst NFL Season Ever" where, among other things, he laments (you guessed it) the lack of parity in the league and blames it on the salary cap. Today Bill Parcells says virtually the same thing in an interview in the Boston Globe. Coincidence?
But that made me wonder - Is parity really dead in the NFL?
There is no question that there are some dreadful teams this season. You need look no further than the articles all over the place on the subject of whether the Miami Dolphins can complete the perfect 0-16 season that has never been done before to see that.
And there are certainly plenty of two and three-win teams littering the landscape as well. But does it necessarily follow that parity is dead in the NFL? After all, there is a 10-0 team (as this is written) as well as two 10-1 teams. Doesn't sound much like parity to me either.
But here's the thing. Is the concept of parity meant to imply that every team goes 8-8 every year and not only ties for first place in their division but last place as well?
Or is parity supposed to mean, as Dudski says, "fans in nearly every city could expect their team to make it to the playoffs every couple of years"?
By my way of thinking, parity doesn't necessarily mean either of those things, although in a frighteningly boring scenario the first could conceivably happen. Parity, to me, means that no matter how awful a team is this year, and there are certainly a few of those, within a year or two things could turn around, and there have been very recent examples of that very thing happening.
The Saints from last year are the perfect example of that. Even the Packers of this season, currently 10-1 and one of the teams that is now beating up on the weak sisters of the NFL, was a part of that group as recently as last year. Sounds like parity to me.
The thing is, for every team that rises from the ashes there will most likely be a team that takes a tumble as well, hence the Bears and, yes, there they are again, the Saints, two of the NFC's best last season, are languishing with five wins apiece as we approach December. Parity? Could be.
Dudski laments the salary cap, saying that because of it, teams are unable to develop any continuity, especially on the offensive and defensive lines. But every valuable member of a team who is cut to make cap space can instantly be a valuable addition somewhere else, helping a team that may be missing one or two pieces to get over the top.
Sure, it looks like the teams who will be playing in the AFC and NFC Conference Championship Games are a lock right now, but I would almost be willing to bet right now that at least one of the teams Dudski mentions, the Patriots and Colts in the AFC and the Cowboys and Packers or Giants in the NFC will not be there. As Bill Parcells himself used to say (and probably still does): The goal of the regular season is to get to the tournament. After that anything can happen.
The Miami Dolphins achieved perfection in the year 1972, making it, oh, let's see, 2007 minus 1972, carry the nine....uh....roughly 35 light-years ago. That was the magical year where they steamrolled through the NFL to the tune of a 14-0 regular season, then continued their run through the Super Bowl; the only time in the storied history of the league that a team played an entire season without losing so much as a single game.
You, of course, are well aware of this because as a sports fan you know that every couple of years, as one team or another piles up win after win early in the season, you are barraged with the inevitable and obligatory tales of Miami's perfection so long ago. It's like the NFL's own little mini-legend. Lord of the Pigskin, with Don Shula as Frodo Baggins.
Clearly, that Dolphins team shoud be justifiably proud of what they accomplished; after all, no one has done it before or since. But were it not for the assault on their perfect record by one team or another every few years, that 14-0 regular season and Super Bowl win would long ago have been relegated to nothing more than a historical footnote; a statistical oddity.
Former Dolphins Head Coach Don Shula and some of the ex-players from that team have gotten more mileage than a 1975 Chevy Vega out of publically rooting for teams to lose as they reach the midway point of the season and beyond and are still undefeated. Shula is in full panic mode now as the New England Patriots are the latest team to make run at beating Miami's accomplishment.
He should rethink his suggestion, though, that an asterisk be placed next to the Patriots record should they defy the odds and actually finish the season without losing a game. Rather, he should be suggesting an exclamation point instead, considering the whole little cottage industry these old guys have built around disparaging the accomplishments of teams like the Patriots, the Colts before them, and the Steelers before that. They've gotten more face time out of teams trying to do their jobs than is warranted; a lot more, in fact.
These seemingly bitter, jealous ex-athletes and coaches could take a few lessons in grace and humility from someone like Henry Aaron, who watched a steroid-fueled chemistry experiment break one of the most hallowed records in all of sports. It was certainly a record more significant than one undefeated season by a football team, and Aaron watched his mark get obliterated without a single public word against the man who toppled him from the ranks of record-holder to the position of runnerup, even though most observers believe the new home run king had plenty of chemical assistance.
Whether the Patriots actually win their next seven games, plus three in the playoffs to remain perfect is debatable, probably even unlikely. And no doubt it's human nature for the solitary holders of such a distinction, the Dolphin ex-players and coaches, to want to remain the only ones to have accomplished the feat. But at least if they ever do have to share the stage with another team, we can stop getting the same old tired reports from the same old tired faces that played in the league in the long-ago, good old days of 1972.
"Yes, hello, may I speak with Coach Dungy please?"
"This is Tony Dungy, who is calling?"
"Hi Tony, this is Bill Belichick, how are you tonight?"
"Hi Bill....yeah....I'm just great, thanks for asking."
"Tony, I just wanted to congratulate you on the great game your Colts played against my Patriots tonight. Man, I'll tell you, your guys outhit us, outhustled us, outplayed us pretty much the whole entire game."
"Except for the final score."
"Well, yeah, there is that. How about that Addai kid. What did he have, something like 200 yards of offense all by himself?"
"226, actually."
"Wow, that's unbelievable. And all those penalties against my guys. Do you believe we had 146 yards in penalties called against us and your guys had just 25? That's a difference of more than a whole length of the football field, just in penalties!"
"Uh, yeah. Yeah, I know."
"And then to be up by ten on us almost halfway through the fourth quarter, at home, and not be able to put us away, that must really stick in your craw Tony."
"That's one way to put it. Uh, listen Bill, is there anything else? because I'm kind of busy right now...."
"Oh yeah, I almost forgot the real reason I called, thanks for reminding me. About those cameras we had on our sideline pointed at your sideline, we were just filming where all the exits are in the RCA Dome in case of, you know, a fire or something."
"Cameras? I didn't see any cameras."
"Really? I mean....uh....heh heh heh....no, you're right, there were no cameras. We weren't taping all your coaches signals just in case we meet again in January in the AFC Championship. We definitely weren't doing that, not at all. You have yoursel####reat night now, coach.
"Thanks, Bill, I'm sure it's going to be just wonderful."
1) It's a bummer to think that there is no more professional football until next September.
Sure, the Pro Bowl takes place next weekend, but does anyone really watch that? Even as much as I love football, I can't be bothered to watch what is essentially an excuse for some of the NFL's best players to take a Hawaiian vacation on the league's dime. As far as football significance is concerned, the game ranks somewhere between the fourth game of the preseason and the last practice with no pads before the real games start.
2) The poor weather conditions were supposed to be to Chicago's advantage - what happened?
It is a universally accepted truism that bad weather narrows the talent gap between two teams, giving the team with less talent a better chance to win than they would otherwise have had. Unfortunately for the Bears, this only holds true when you can: 1 - Run the ball as well as, or better than, the other team, and, 2 - Hold onto the ball. Six turnovers in the first quarter illustrated how the torrential rain was affecting the players, but since there were three for each team, they more or less cancelled each other out.
3) This is going to be one long, uncomfortable offseason for Rex Grossman.
The man who spent the season as the NFL's poster boy for inconsistent play turned in another stinker in a game in which the Bears needed him to be a lot more reliable than he was. Grossman was stumbling and bumbling around all night like Britney Spears after last call. In addition to the fumbles and interceptions, he could have lost the ball and number of other times, but was barely able to hang on.
Grossman's decision-making suffered as well, especially late in the game when Chicago was attempting a desperate comeback. The interception he threw on the second-to-last series was an example of decision-making at its worst. Grossman threw the ball off-balance, off the wrong foot, and it hung up in the air like a wounded duck, giving Bob Sanders more than enough time to camp under it. The pass looked like something I would have thrown.
4) The Bears should have known better than to use Ohio State's game plan from the BCS Championship Game.
You would think that given two weeks to prepare, Chicago's playbook would have been a little more in-depth than the two steps it apparently contained. Here is a glimpse into the Bears Super Bowl playbook: 1 - Run back the opening kickoff for a touchdown. 2 - Suck.
5) When it comes to Super Bowl ads, you can't go wrong with talking animals.
For my money, the best commercials last night were the mouse pad one, the crabs worshiping the cooler full of Budweiser, and the talking lions. Speaking of talking Lions, either one of the two featured in the commercial seemed brighter than Matt Millen. I wonder if anyone in Detroit was paying attention?
One week to go until Super Bowl XLI (Are those Latin numerals correct? I believe they are, but my knowledge of dead languages is understandably a little shaky). Are you sick of the wait yet? Sick of the endless, incessant hype, and the stories about all the unimportant, meaningless background stuff? Unless you hail from either Indianapolis or Chicago, and maybe even if you do, your answer is
