The expression "Hope springs eternal" may not have been coined with sports fans in mind, but it may as well have been. As spring training cranks up in Florida and Arizona, every major league team is undefeated and fans of all of them look at their lineups and try to convince themselves they will still be interested at the beginning of October.
For the defending World Series Champion Boston Red Sox, this means more or less maintaining the status quo. But questions still linger, as they do for every team, from the most successful to the least. Here are the Top Ten Questions for the Sox heading into spring training:
10) How will the Curt Schilling injury affect the rotation? Eight million dollars lies in the balance, as the Red Sox could void Schilling's contract if he opts for surgery, since the team's medical staff insists rest and rehabilition can have the 41 year old starter ready by the All-Star break. Schilling's long-time doctor, Craig Morgan, disagrees with the diagnosis and insists Schilling will never pitch again without surgery.
The most optimistic estimates don't have Schilling returning to the rotation until mid-July, and perhaps never, so the question becomes, how big of a hole will this leave in the Sox rotation?
The answer - Probably not much. Schilling was out for over seven weeks last year and his spot was filled with varying levels of effectiveness by Julian Tavarez. This year, Tavarez could get the nod again, or Boston could try rookie Clay Buchholz, he of the September no-hitter last year.
9) Will Tim Wakefield's back hold up for one more year? Wakefield will turn 41 this summer, and although the prevailing theory is that knuckleballers can pitch well into their forties and even beyond, the rest of their moving parts have to cooperate for them to do so. Wake has suffered from off-and-on back problems the last few years and if he misses any significant amout of time this season, the Sox could be forced to deal for pitching help to overcome the loss of forty percent of their rotation.
8) Does Manny Ramirez know it's his contract year? It sounds like a ridiculous question until you realized Manny lives in his own universe, which doesn't necessarily follow the same rules as ours. The Sox own a club option for 2009, but if they choose not to exercise it, Manny could find himself being Manny somewhere else next year. It would obviously be to his benefit to have a big year in 2008.
7) Will there be any lingering effects from the club's trip to the Far East in March? The Sox open the 2008 regular season against the Oakland A's in Japan in March, while all the other teams are still getting the kinks out and preparing for April. They play two games that count in Tokyo, then return to the States for three more exhibition games in Los Angeles against the Dodgers before the season re-starts for good.
Manager Terry Francona is doing his best to put a positive spin on the potentially exhausting trip, but it's obvious he doesn't relish the extensive travel and the distractions the team will face, while the rest of the A.L East will still be sitting around the hotel pool in Florida.
6) Which Julio Lugo will show up this year? Will it be the man Boston signed a year ago to be an offensive upgrade at shortstop over slick-fielding Alex Gonzalez, or the stiff who was a near-automatic out for most of the season in 2007? A comparison of the numbers for Gonzalez from 2006 and Lugo from 2007 shows what a disappointing year the new Sox shortstop had:
While Lugo did drive in a relatively impressive number of runs, especially for a player with such a low batting average, that is mostly a factor of the players in front of him getting on base. A lot. The Sox expect more offensively from Lugo for their $36 million investment over four years.
5) What does Dustin Pedroia do for an encore? The reigning A.L. Rookie of the Year struggled mightily last April, finishing the month hitting well under .200, before bouncing back to hit line drives all over the yard the rest of the year. Was his .317 BA and .380 OBP a fluke or will he be a consistent .300 hitter in his career? For a little guy who swings like he's Ryan Howard, it's hard to picture such consistency, but he did it from May on last season. We'll see.
4) Where will Coco Crisp end up? And more importantly from a Boston perspective, what will he bring in return? It's clear the center field job is Jacoby Ellsbury's to lose, so whether Boston will go into the regular season using Crisp as a fourth outfielder or whether he's gone before the beginning of April, he will not finish the year in Boston.
It doesn't seem likely teams will offer a lot for Coco, as he never really fulfilled his promise offensively during the two years he roamed center field at Fenway. Defensively, though, he's magical, diving and using his outstanding speed to get to just about everything. His arm is a liability for a center fielder.
3) Will Hideki Okajima and Javier Lopez be the lights-out lefties they were in 2007 out of the bullpen? It's hard to imagine Okajima could duplicate his performance from last year, especially in the first half. Although he seemed to tire a bit toward the end of the season, his numbers were still eye-popping for a guy who was considered by many to be a throw-in, someone to keep Daisuke Matsuzaka company as he adjusted to life in the United States.
Okajima's 2007 numbers: 3-2, 5 saves, 2.22 ERA, 63K's in 69 IP, only 50 hits allowed.
2) Is this the year all those games behind home plate catch up with Jason Varitek? The all-time club leader in games caught, the Captain's numbers have declined the last couple of years. Compare his numbers from 2004 and 2005 with those from 2006 and 2007:
The man brings a lot more than offense to the park with him; his preparation and ability to handle the pitching staff is legendary. But the position of catcher is a physically demanding one and Tek will turn 36 in early April.
Varitek may require more days off in 2008, and backup Doug Mirabelli is on the roster mostly due to his uncanny ability to hold on to Tim Wakefield's knuckler. If the offense struggles, an unlikely possibility to be sure, the lack of punch from this position could become glaring.
1) Are the injuries to David Ortiz fully healed? Knee and hip problems prevented Big Papi from generating the kind of power he was able to produce in 2006. Although Ortiz posted career highs in 2007 in batting average (.332), doubles (52), and hits (182), his home runs dropped from 52 in '06 to 35 last year, and his RBI total dropped as well, from 137 in 2006 to 117 last year.
Assuming the physical problems are a thing of the past, look for a big year powerwise from the Big Man in the Sox lineup.
I THINK ALOT IS TRUE HERE.TEK ON THE OTHER HAND ALSO HAD ALOT ON HIS PLATE.LEARNING JAPANESE AND TEACHING ENGLISH AND NOT FORGETTING HOW TO PLAY THE GAME IS MAGICAL.YES HE'S A YEAR OLDER BUT I THINK HE CAN FOCUS BETTER AND RELAX A LITTLE MORE THIS YEAR.INSPITE OF THE MANY HATS HE HAD TO WEAR HE STILL HAD ONE OF THE BEST PITCHING STAFFS IN ALL OF BASEBALL.DEALING WITH THE KIDS LATER ON IN THE SEASON AND EVEN CATCHING SOME OF WAKEFIELD. HE STILL HAD CY YOUNG WINNING 20 GAMES IN A JOSH BECKETT UNIFORM.I'D SAY HE HAD A GREAT SEASON.AND I HOPE FOR THE SAME MAGIC TRICKS THIS SEASON.
Hi Patsfan, you must be a lonely guy living in Indy.
Nobody's a bigger Varitek fan than me, and you're right about all the extra responsibilities he had last year, but he's well beyond the age at which catchers traditionally begin to decline.
The good thing is, the Sox don't care if he gives them much offens as long as he continues handling the pitching staff like he always has....
it's not so much as being lonely we have here.if i could pipe in nesn everything would be good.i get alot of ribbing as well,i love the attention.tek is a stand up guy,a real player with good values.i don't disagree about his age as much as i value the job he does.i've been a sox fan since the mid sixties.born and raised in pawtucket i've seen alot of great players in my day.fisk was good or so he told me he was when he played for the pawsox.i've never seen anyone study the game like tek does.do you think the way tek handles the game he's of hof stature?
HB,
I have said to many in the last few months that Shils value is to be the extra pitching coach for the kids. If he can pitch we want him doing it healthy in the post season. Rest and recoup, teach and instruct.
Half....You probably wont be adding me to your "potential friends" list after this one...GO YANKEES.
All will be well for the for the Sox. Great pitching,chemistry,offense,front office,manager...You can use those ingrediants in my Beef Wellington any day.
Is there a better manager than Terry F?
High praise from a Yanks fan!!
Manny knows it is $$$ time...he is an MVP candidate
Papi wil be Papi....319 42HR 127RBI 462B 103BB????
Beckett wins the Cy..I HATE EVERYBODY..Young Award.
38Pitches has thrown the last of his 38 pitches. He opted out of the surgery for the 8M in scratch.
That was wrong for the Sox to tell him they would rescind the money...he has been a class act player and a key part of 2 WS Teams.
I love Torre, but Joe G will be a breath of fresh air and is a Larry Brown type motivator. The Yanks are getting back to what made them so special in the late 90's.....the farm system.
I am happy to see they didn't stay with the...We Have To Have This Guy Approach in regards to Santana.
Speaking of..I wonder what effect Santana will have on these 2 clubs? He was coveted by both, if he has the monster year I expect....a lot of cross talk will come up in NY and Bos.
Look for A-Rod to repeat as MVP .315 49HR 146RBI 125R 100BB BEST PLAYER IN THE REGULAR SEASON....maybe they can start a baby brother award of the MVP and call iy that or just shorten it to The A-Rod Award!! I poke fun at all, even my guys!!!!!
And the Yanks to get first back at 97-65
Boston right behind with 93-69
Hey Half,
10. Loss of Schilling won't matter. Buccholz, Snyder, and Tavarez will be just as effective, if not more so than he has been the last couple years.
9. If Wake gets 10 wins (which is very possible after a 16-win season last year) he'll have been worth the paltry money they spent on him.
8. Manny should have a monster year-contract year and the fact that he was out late last season a bit.
7. People are making too big a deal about the effect of the trip to Japan. If anything, they'll lose one or two of the exhibition games when they get back...big deal.
6. Lugo will improve this year, but not much.
5. Pedroia might hit a sophomore slump, but he should be good for a .290+ batting average if nothing else. He plays the game really well.
4. I could see Crisp ending up on a low-budget team with poor defense. My money's on the Marlins.
3. Okajima, like Pedroia might dip a bit from last year, but I still see him having a sub-3.00 ERA. He's working on new "secret" pitches. It will be interesting to see how they change his game.
2. The leadership and defense make Varitek worth his price tag. His offense has been bad, but he's too strong in the other departments to let go of him.
1. Look for a big bounce-back year for Papi. I'd love to see him go for 53 HR this season, but that might be asking too much too soon.
Half: You betcha Manny knows it is his contract year. And I'm surprised that he hasn't demanded to be traded yet (no, I'm not kidding).
I think that your version of Evil Empire (i.e. v 2.0) is going to have some problems this year, not that they will necessarily be insurmountable, but difficult none the less.
Somewhat off topic, as an ATC, what think you of this article:
These guys travel so comfortably that i dont think travelling to Japan is going to do anything physically. Mentally its going to be a huge boost. Japan is literally going to "blow up" these guys are going to be treated like rockstars. Remember they all became household names last yr when everyone was watching Matsuzaka and Okajima play.
- I think its difficult to repeat because the season is so long that when you win, the following year, you dont have the same competative urgency you felt the year before. idk.
- I really want to see Lester pitch this year. This is the first year that he should be completely healthy. He should also have total confidence after clinching a W.S. win.
- If Manny produces in the first half, the sox should sign him for the following year. I know it may not be "business savy" but they gotta show respect to one of the best hitters in the history of the game. Manny is the anchor of the entire sox hitting philosophy (OBP). He also plays the best defense at LF in Fenway of any player in baseball. He knows the monster, how a baseball will fly off it, and the bathroom inside it
mr. baked; if it was anyone else writing this wonderful delightful post, i would sware it was the typical boston fan setting places at the excuse table before it was even warented. BUT since its you doing the writing, there are many legitamate issues here that should be addressed. manny would be my biggest worry since he is the best hitter in baseball in my opinion. as for him having a good year, look at the stats all the way back to clevland, hes good every year.
Hi Alsports, I agree Schilling can bring a lot to the table as an "extra" pitching coach. When he retires I would be willing to bet he could get a job in that capacity immediately if he wants one. It's still a shame to see him go out this way, though, if in fact he's done....
Hey there ADJ, quite the contrary my friend - I can't blame you for being a Yankee fan, I love the Sox-Yanks rivalry - it's good for baseball, even though the rest of the country hates it, and it's a lot of fun to boot, especially when both teams are competitive....
Great comment, probably better than my post if we're being honest. I felt all along, and if you check my blog archives you'll see it's true, that Joe Girardi was the best guy for the job in New York. He'll face some challenges early, with a veteran clubhouse. I'm sure it will be much different than when he was in Florida, but once he earns the repect of the players, and I'm sure he will based on everything I've read, he will be a strong manager for a long time in the Bronx, provided little Steinbrenner doesn't try to micromanage....
Everyone seems to be handing the division to the Sox this year and I don't know why. After the horrible start last year by the Yankees with all their pitching injuries, they almost made up the entire early deficit, losing the division by only 2 games. It's going to be a great race and a lot of fun. Thanks for the comments!
Freshfromthedeli, nice job with the comments. I hope Coco ends up on a contender, I love watching him play defense....Pedroia has the strangest swing for a little guy. How he makes contact consistently is a mystery to me. Sometimes I laugh out loud watching him swing, but he always seems to put good wood on the ball. Amazing....
Hi Rev, good question. Up until about a year ago, I would have said about zero chance. The team tried a number of times to get out from under Manny's huge contract starting only about a year after they signed him. Now, though, $20 million per isn't as outrageous as it once seemed to be. If Manny revises his goals downward a little bit, I actually could see him staying in Boston, although to me it's still a long shot. Maybe 20%?
Hi Sleepless, I'll guess somewhere around early August is when we'll go through the annual "I want out of Boston" routine from Manny. Francona will give him a few days off and he'll be happy, or at least everyone will assume he's happy since he never speaks to the media.
I, for one, will almost miss this reassuring annual ritual when Manny's gone - it's become almost as much a part of summer around here as fireworks on the 4th of July....
I'll check out the link before the end of the night. Thanks Sleepless....
Mbenz, interesting comment and a great avatar. I'm sure they will be treated like rock stars in Japan. Still, the travel is so long that I can't help but think everyone will suffer a bit of a letdown when the trip is over, although you're right that they only have to play three exhibition games when they come back. Maybe the impact will be minimal.
I'm interested in seeing Lester get a full season under his belt too. I wouldn't be surprised to see 15-17 wins if he stays healthy....
Thanks for checking out the post and for the comments....
Hi Blue, yeah, Manny is definitely one of the all-time great hitters, especially when it comes to driving in runs. I fully expect him to have a big year in 2008 if only to force someone, whether the Red Sox or some other team, into a big decision involving lots of money....
I don't think Schilling's injury will hurt the team as the bullpen is very deep. As far as Wake goes, the back is a tricky thing so he may be fine and he may be not. I like that you always know what you're going to get with Wake as he either gives you a W or L. I bet Manny knows 08 is his "money" year. He does well this season and the Sox are going to have to offer him more. The Japan trip might be a little exhausting but it's only a few games so I don't think it'll have that much of an effect. Lugo I think will be better this year as adjusting to Boston must've been tough. The expectations down in Tampa weren't even close to those in Boston. I also liked that he seemed to pick it up when the post season started. Pedroia has a fantastic 07 and it's going to be very hard to duplicate that. Crisp has done unbelievably in center. However since Ellsbury came up he's been money on offense as well as displayed some highlight reel material in the field so Crisp may end up somewhere else. Okajima did wear down toward the end of 07 but I think Francona went to him far too often in the World Series. The same thing happened with Papelbon during the regular season the year before and Francona learned not to bring him in so often as well as the Sox bringing in Okajima who could be a second closer helped. Tek had a lot to deal with in 07 with new pitchers coming to the club and getting to know their tendencies and also just communicating with them. This year I think he can relax and now knows his pitchers better so his offensive production WILL rise.
Last edited by NEFan4Life on February 23rd at 7:55 AM.
There are some excellent thoughts there HB. It is refreshing to see reasonable comments made on both sides of this rivalry.
I think any Sox fans that are taking it for granted that the sox are going to do as well as last year are misguided. Looking forward to this year, I would hope the players who under-performed last year (Lugo, Drew, Dice-K) will bounce back afer having a year under to their belt to adjust, and that the guys who performed over their heads (Lowell, Pedroia, Okijima) dont fall off too far.
As a life long Sox fan, it looks good and feels good, but lets not get ahead of ourselves.
Hey everyone, I know it must seem like I've dropped off the face of the earth, but it's nothing like that.
I've been busy writing - two full-length novels so far, plus over a dozen short stories - and working hard to try to get an agent. If you are curious and have a few minutes, check out my website, www.allanleve rone.com.
If you're a literary agent or if you know one, by all means contact me! In the meantime, I'll be here when I can - love this forum - and as always, thank you for checking out my blog, especially considering how many great ones you could be reading instead....
