With the playoff picture beginning to take shape, it seemed a good time to take a look at some of the teams who will be in the "tournament," as Bill Parcells used to call it, fighting for a shot at a Super Bowl title.
Conventional wisdom seems to be that the Patriots will represent the AFC and either the Cowboys or possibly Green Bay will be the NFC team to make the trip to Glendale. But is that opinion based solely on won-lost records? The Pats have the best record in the AFC and the Cowboys have the best in the NFC, followed by the Packers.
But wins and losses can only tell you so much. If you're piling up wins against bad teams while struggling against good ones, that would seem to indicate a good possibility for an early exit from the playoffs. On the other hand,if you play a tough schedule against a lot of good teams, doesn't that seem to indicate a readiness to face the rigors of the playoffs, where by definition only the best teams participate?
To separate the wheat from the chaff, I broke down the schedules of each team that would be in the playoffs if they were to start this weekend. Obviously, things could change in the next three weeks, but I wanted to start now because, frankly, my curiosity got the best of me.
I looked at two factors for each team: strength of schedule, and record against quality opposition, which I defined as any opponent with a winning record to this point in the season - in other words, any opponent wth a 7-6 record or better. Some of the results are predictable, others are a little surprising.
Strength of Schedule - The combined record of all opponents for each team:
1 - San Diego Chargers - 91-78 (.539)
2 - Jacksonville Jaguars - 89-80 (.527)
3 - Indianapolis Colts - 88-81 (.521)
4 - Minnesota Vikings - 87-82 (.515)
5 - New Engand Patriots - 85-84 (.503)
6 - Dallas Cowboys - 84-85 (.497)
Green Bay Packers - 84-85 (.497)
8 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 83-86 (.491)
9 - New York Giants - 78-91 (.462)
10 - Pittsburgh Steelers - 77-92 (.456)
11 - Cleveland Browns - 75-94 (.444)
12 - Seattle Seahawks - 70-99 (.414)
If you look at strength of schedule, there appear to be three levels. The top four teams, San Diego, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Minnesota, played a slate of teams with a combined record well over .500. The next four, New England, Dallas, Green Bay, and Tampa Bay, all played opponents whose records combined to be just about .500. The final four, the New York Giants, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Seattle, have played a schedule considerably easier.
How will that affect a team's readiness for the playoffs? It would seem that a team with a relatively easy schedule should be able to build a winning record much easier, while a team with a difficult schedule has been battle-tested and logic would suggest should perform better in the playoffs.
But even within each team's schedule, there are very good opponents and very bad ones. The best indicator against future success against good teams, I believe, is how a team has performed over the course of the season against quality opponents. With that in mind, here is how each team has fared aganst quality opposition this season.
Record Against Quality Opponents:
1 - New England Patriots - 7-0 (1.000)
2 - Dallas Cowboys - 5-1 (.833)
3 - Green Bay Packers - 4-1 (.800)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 4-1 (.800)
5 - Indianapolis Colts - 5-2 (.714)
6 - Jacksonville Jaguars - 4-3 (.571)
7 - Minnesota Vikings - 3-4 (.429)
8 - San Diego Chargers - 2-4 (.333)
9 - Seattle Seahawks - 1-2 (.333)
10 - Cleveland Browns - 1-3 (.250)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 1-3 (.250)
12 - New York Giants - 0-4 (.000)
This set of numbers, I believe, tells a lot about some of the teams if you study it. Four teams, the Patriots, Colts, Jaguars, and Vikings, have played more than half their games thus far against quality opponents, telling me those teams may be more prepared for a playoff atmosphere than, say, the Seahawks, Browns, Bucs, or Giants, who have played four or less against quality opposition.
The teams in the bottom half of the above chart have built their records against largely inferior competition, leading me to believe each will suffer a quick exit, with the possible exception of the Vikings, who have played seven games against quality opposition, and who have been playing much better of late than they did early in the season.
Giants fans, in particular, should be terrified. The New York Football Giants have been perfect against the bad teams they have played, going 9-0, but they've also been Miami Dolphin perfect against quality opposition,going 0-4. There arent many sub-.500 teams in the playoffs, so look for an early exit for New York.
The biggest mystery teams to me are San Diego and Jacksonville. They are the two teams that have played the toughest overall schedule, but have both struggled against quality individual opponents, especially San Diego. How that will shake out in the playoffs is anyone's guess, but my opinion is it will probably add up to a relatively early exit for each.
There you go. Numbers can tell you whatever you want them to, I suppose,so what do they mean for your team? As a Patriots fan, I like what I see when I look at New England's numbers, but there are a hal####ozen teams with numbers that tell me they are legitimate threats to win it all. What do you think?
I wish I could, but I can't argue... I can use all the excuses I hear on the college football side, but the numbers make a compelling case.
You've stripped me of everything but hope! (Can you tell I'm a Seahawks fan?)
My hope remains that they are coming together as a team. They can't help it if their opponents aren't that good. BTW, they've got a big game this weekend against the 5-8 Carolina Panthers. Gotta get their mean on!
I totally agree, teams can't choose the difficulty of their schedule, and things could change quite a bit in the next three weeks, so I figure I'll revisit the issue during the week between the end of the regular season and the beginning of the playoffs, but I was a little curious, actually a lot curious, about what the numbers would show.
And as Parcells used to say, the goal is to get into the tournament. Once you get there, everyone who's there has a shot if they play well....
Thanks a lot for checking out the post and for the comment....
Hi D Cwbys, thanks a lot for reading. I could break this stuff down for hours, much to my wife's chagrin, so I'm sure I will revisit it after the season.
The other thing I'd like to look at is how the teams have fared against quality opposition both at home and on the road, since home-field advantage always seems to be a huge factor in the playoffs, espceially when you consider weather factors in January.
Hi Buc, as a Tampa fan you must be pretty happy, especially after last year. I couldn't believe the Eagles let Garcia go, and it looks to me like he's done a pretty good job for the Bucs.
Thanks for reading and for the comment, take care yourself....
HB - the Eagles don't even know what the Eagles are doing..they are a mess.
at first i wanted to prove to everyone that its not all Garcia who is making the BUCS! win every sunday...they just say garcia is this and garcia does that well i finally got to prove that it wasn't so when Luke McCown went in New Orleans and beat the sAINTs i was so happy...but now down in Houston that was a different story..McCown played horrible and now im happy that Garcia is back...
I don't claim to be antyhing close to an expert on the Bucs. Is my memory going or wasn't that the knock on McCown even coming out of college, that he could be very inconsistent?
In any event Tampa should be in the tournament and once you get there anything can happen, so have fun and enjoy the ride....
Jacksonville is the team to watch in the playoffs. Losing Stroud sucks for them, but it might not affect their game plan against the Patriots who run about as much as Tyson in his prime.
Hi Norcal, you might be right about that. Since week one, the Jags have only lost once to a team that wasn't named the Colts. I'll be curious to see what happens Sunday when they play the Steelers in Pittsburgh. If they can make a good showing there, I might become a little more of a believer....
Half: (Good pick up, BTW, on who is who). One good thing about all of this is that the 'Hawks are peaking at exactly the right time. They had their bad games at the beginning of the season, and are beginning to have their much better one now, right before the playoffs, while some of the other teams are starting to go the other way.
If they can keep up the momentum, who knows what will happen in the playoffs. Depends on who they get for the first round (the Vikings, maybe?). Presuming Hasselbeck and the remaining wide receives remain healthy, they have as good a chance as anyone else to take it all the way.
As for your Pats, someone is going to beat them sometime. Lord help them if it is the hapless Fins......
There's no question that the playoffs in the NFL are all about momentum, and who is playing the best football at the right time. That's why so much emphasis is placed on coaches who can consistently manage to get good records in December, it means they are getting their teams to peak at the right time.
As much as I would hate to see the Pats lose to Miami (And, yes, I know just about everyone else in the known universe would love to see exactly that), even I have to admit it would be the karma story of the decade. Unbeaten team gets taken out by winless team in Week Sixteen, as winless team defends the legacy of their brethren from 35 years ago. It's quite the compelling story....
Thanks a lot for reading and for the comment....
Last edited by HalfBaked on December 13th at 5:36 AM.
I think strength of schedule means something in college, not the pros. In the pros you should look at strength of conference. You play every team in your conference twice. So New England gets 2 cupcake games against the Dolphins and Jets, where teams like Dallas and Indianapolis have to fight for a division title.
NFC East conference record (32-20)
AFC South conference record (33-19)
AFC East conference record (23-29)
Sure the Pats have played very tough non-divisional games, but they don't have any compition in their own division, so they have several weeks between the tough games. They basically have 3 weeks to practice for the Giants because the Jets and Dolphins are not a serious threat to anyone. I see them going 16-0, but losing in the playoffs.
But the thing is, every team has cupcake games. What difference does it make whether those games come within or outside of your division?
Look at it this way. The Pats get four games against the Jets and Miami, granted, but if you take those four games out of the mix, the rest of their opponents have a combined record of 91-65, a pretty tough go of it, don't you think?
Even the Bills aren't much of a challenge. The Pats are in a very weak division.
I'm not putting down what the Pats have done this year, it is very impressive, they've beat everyone they've faced. But they haven't had back to back games against winning opponents all year. I'm just not ready to size up their rings just yet.
Oh don't get me wrong, I don't disagree the AFC East is weak, it's an embarrasment, but I just don't believe divisional games carry the importance they used to before the split into the current format of four divisions per conference.
And I'm not at all suggesting the Pats get measured for rings yet. There are easily a minimum of five teams that have a legitimate shot at winning it all, plus any of the other teams that get in the playoffs if they get hot at the right time....
Count the Jags out. They can't win on the road and they haven't proven they can win the big game.
Count the Chargers out. Phillip Rivers is too inconsistent and quarterback play in the playoffs is paramount to a team's success.
The Steelers and Colts are the only teams that have a shot against the Pats. I'd actually give the nod to the Steelers because they can put pressure on the QB. The Colts lost Dwight Freeny (sp?) and that hurts them tremendously. But, they do have Peyton and that's a huge plus.
I still like the Pats in the AFC.
In the NFC.....
As I mentioned, good QB play is essential for advancing to the next round. Outside of Romo and Favre, no other teams can claim consistent QB play.
Whoever gets home field advantage, the Cowboys or the Packers will go to the Super Bowl.
I'll admit that the AFC East is weak, however I don't think you can blame that on the Pats. You've got to put that on the front offices of the other teams in the division. There was a time when the Bills, Dolphins and Jets were all formidable teams. It seems those years are behind them and unfortunately I see POSSIBLY only the Bills having a good future. Miami's front office is probably THE worst of the division. The Jets have a good year once in a great while. Last year was exceptional year for them but this year they're back on the losing side. There used to be a time when it was the Pats front office that wasn't so great, it seems like those days are LOOOONG gone.
I don't see the G Men going far in the playoffs because Eli is too Jeckel and Hyde. Romo only has one year of playoff experience and I'm not sold on the guy YET. If he does well this years playoffs and next years then I'll believe he's good. One full year does not a career make.
Last edited by NEFan4Life on December 13th at 8:14 AM.
It's a bit refreshing to see fans own up to their teams faults like some of the posters here. That said, I was real worried mid-season for the Jags when Garrard didn't seem to have anybody to throw to, but it looks like the receivers are finally starting to shape up. You think the Jags WRs are at playoff level yet?
Also, as a Pats fan what team are you worried most about in the playoffs or SB?
Hey MoonDog, I really want to see what happens in the Jags-Steelers game on Sunday, I think that will answer a few questions about both teams.
You're right about the importance of quarterback play. I'm not sure I count out San Diego though, because if ever there was a team built to play with a lead, it would be them. But if they fall behind by more than ten points in a playoff game forget it. And no, I haven't forgotten last week's big 4th quarter comeback.
Barring a huge collapse, Dallas should get home field advantage, since they hold a one-game lead, plus own the tiebreaker with Green Bay by virtue of beating them last month....
One last thing. Did you ever imagine a scenario where you could call Brett Favre consistent after his last few years of throwing the ball all over the lot? I sure didn't. What a comeback he's made....
For me personally I find the Vikings probably the scariest out of the bunch because they have the most consistent running game out of the playoff teams. Adrian Peterson may be a newbie but he's scary good and I think a team that has a running game could be a tough task for the Pats.
NEFan, thanks for making my point better than I did. Things change so fast in the NFL it can make your head spin. Wasn't it the beginning of last year when SI picked Miami to go to the Super Bowl? And the Jets had a great year in 2006 and supposedly were ready to take the next step. It really makes you appreciate what we have here in New England....
Yeah HB, I almost laughed when SI said that. Plus they didn't take Brady Quinn in the draft which I think was a mistake for them since QB was and is a problem down there.
I'm also worried about lack of running plays called by the Pats. I know having Tom drop back 46 times in a game is realistic sometimes but what if that weather comes up and we have ourselves a Ice Bowl? Moroney needs to get his touches and needs to be out there for the majority of the game with the ball in his hands so he doesn't get winded if he's forced to carry the load.
Hi Gorgeousaur, every team is a threat in a single-elimination format. Any given Sunday, and all that. But the teams that concern me the most are the ones the Pats haven't seen yet. I believe they could beat everyone they've thus far played again based on what I saw. That's not to say they will, only that I'm confident they can.
NEFan, I think we may find out this weekend, with the storm that's supposed to hit the area Saturday night into Sunday. If it's as bad as forecasted, not just with snow but with high winds also, the running game will make the Pats or break them.
I have to admit I felt a lot better about the Pats ground game before Sammy Morris got hurt. That combo of Morris and Maroney was a lot more effective than I thought it was going to be at the beginning of the season....
HB,
As weak as the AFC east is you realize that the Bills despite being ripped twice by the Patriots are only 3 or maybe 2 wins from the playoffs?
Your chart shows the weakness of a lot of teams Seattle and the New York Football Giants to be specific.
If Dallas and NE have home field advantage thru out, it'll be very difficult for any team in either conference to upset them.
That said, down goes Romo or down goes Brady, then everybody has a chance.
From where the Bills were at the start of the year I thought they wouldn't even come that close. They've done well just not well enough to get in. That close loss against the Cowboys probably hurt the most.
Nevermind, I just looked it up. Unfortunately Morris is out, looks like Faulk will have to be the 2 in the 1 2 punch of the running game. I just get so bogged down with work I forget whose injured and lose track of things that happen with the team.
Last edited by NEFan4Life on December 13th at 8:46 AM.
the one team that really shocks me is the vikings man where did that come from not only do they have a great running game there defense is really starting to dominate all the things you need to go all the way.
Interesting blog, Half-baked. I agree with some of your readers that NE is in a weaker division, but disagree with the Bills being weak, considering they have two losses to the best team in football, and almost beat the Cowboys. Cleveland will have their hands full this weekend. Otherwise, great stuff.
Baked - All this time New England wasn't playing an easy schedule? :)
I'm under the belief that New England will be in the AFC Championship and they will win the Super Bowl unless they play Indy. Then we've got ourselves a game.
In the NFC I think it's wide open. Seattle's shown me something the last few weeks. But I think it's Dallas's to lose. I don't expect Green Bay to step up against Dallas. When is the last time Green Bay won a game they weren't suppose to win? The 1990's?
HB Now that was the best read ive had since I signed-up. Im a Dallas/Viking fan and you just said what ive been trying to tell these guys for two weeks. Thank you for putting it so eloquently
Last edited by rayb2k on December 15th at 7:20 PM.
Hey everyone, I know it must seem like I've dropped off the face of the earth, but it's nothing like that.
I've been busy writing - two full-length novels so far, plus over a dozen short stories - and working hard to try to get an agent. If you are curious and have a few minutes, check out my website, www.allanleve rone.com.
If you're a literary agent or if you know one, by all means contact me! In the meantime, I'll be here when I can - love this forum - and as always, thank you for checking out my blog, especially considering how many great ones you could be reading instead....
