I was perusing ESPN the Magazine and came across an article previewing tonight’s Super Bowl match up between the Indianapolis Colts and Chicago Bears. This article presented 5 arguments as to which team had the advantage of winning. The one that jumped out at me was the concept of Pythagorean wins. It claims that rather than looking at wins and losses in the regular season, one should review the formula devised by stats guru Daryl Morey that takes into consideration Points Scored versus Points Allowed in the regular season. Since 1989, the team that has finished first or second in Pythagorean wins has won 16 of 18 titles. In this past season, the Bears had 12.4 PW’s. The Colts had only 9.6.

This got me to thinking about all the quirky, little stats and the slew of information that is unearthed every year before the Big Game. Everyone becomes an expert. Everyone becomes a statistician. Everyone has an opinion as to why THEIR team will win. Well, if you know me, you know I’m a geek. Particularly, a sports geek. And when in comes to general Super Bowl trivia and knowledge, my geekness is off the charts.

So here are some nuggets of knowledge you may appreciate regarding tonight’s game.

• This is the ninth Super Bowl to be played in Miami. In the previous eight games played, the advantage goes to the AFC (4-3). We cannot count Super Bowl III in which the Jets defeated the Colts. Both teams are currently in the AFC.
• Of the Super Bowls in Miami, they have been played in 2 different stadiums, however, this will be the 4th different stadium name for a Miami Super Bowl (Orange Bowl, Joe Robbie Stadium, Pro Player Stadium, Dolphin Stadium).
• Speaking of the Colts, this is the third appearance for them in a Super Bowl. All three games have been in Miami. The Colts are 1-1 in their previous two games.
• Speaking about .500 performances, the Southeastern Conference has produced 8 Super Bowl starters. They are 4-4 and this stat is guaranteed to remain unchanged following tonight’s Super Bowl. Both Manning and Grossman played their college ball in the SEC.
• In a related aside, the PAC 10 has produced the most winning Super Bowl starting quarterbacks (8). For that matter, the PAC 10 has also produced the most losing Super Bowl starting quarterbacks (9).
• The starting quarterbacks of the first 10 Super Bowls are in the pro football Hall of Fame. Ken Stabler (Super Bowl XI) remains up for HOF consideration every year.
• Speaking of future hall-of-famer’s, Peyton Manning is from Louisiana. LSU, Louisiana Tech, U of L Monroe and U of L Lafayette have all produced Super Bowl starting quarterbacks, and they are a combined 4-3 in those games.
• Finally, of all the franchises making their second ever appearance in a Super Bowl (alla the Bears), they are 11 - 7 in their second game. The Colts lost their first Super Bowl but won their second.

What does this mean regarding Super Bowl XLI? Actually, nothing. To quote O.J. Simpson, the team that will win the game is the one that outscores its opponent. No wonder he hasn’t found the real killer yet. And if you are a Bears fan and hanging your hat on the aforementioned Pythagorean Wins, it’s important to know the Bears were 2nd in PW’s this season. In order to reach the Super Bowl, the Colts defeated the Ravens and Patriots, numbers 1 and 3 on that list, respectively.

There are so many variables that come into play during a game if this magnitude. Preparation, nervousness, officiating, weather, sheer dumb luck. Nothing can be predicted and nothing is ever certain. Well, perhaps one thing is. Tomorrow the pundits and stat jockeys will be at it again digesting the data and analyzing every angle of what happened in the game. As for me, I will still be digesting the hoards of food I am certain to eat. Calories, carbs and cold beer. Those numbers will be irrefutable.

If you’re a fan of NFL football, you’re well aware of the many little things that just ‘fit’.  A typical game lasts three hours and starts at 1:00 on Sundays.  This means they start at 1:00 on the East and the West coast.   How convenient!  A game is four quarters long, as is a complete regular season.  And at the end of the first quarter of this season, it’s time to sit back and see how things are going.

The last four Super Bowl winners have started their seasons a combined 12-4.  That’s a 75% winning percentage.  So as I look at my beloved Dolphins sitting alone in the cellar of the AFC East at 1-3, it doesn’t look good.  Neither does the offensive line.  Neither does the secondary.  Neither does the running game.  When the top team-MVP candidates after the first four games are the #3 Wide Receiver and the Punter, things have to get better.

Miami is known for its tropical atmosphere and hot scenery.  The art deco is nice to look at, too.  Miami’s weather this time of year varies from mild to hot, but for the most part it’s fair.  So it’s only appropriate that Miami is home to the a-typical fair-weather fan.  In Miami, sell-out is a concept and not a recurring reality.  The expectation to win is as unreasonably high as the mercury in September, and the attention span of the average sports fan is as frivolous as the spending on South Beach.

So it doesn’t surprise me to hear the nay-sayers bash Duante Culpepper.  It doesn’t astonish me to hear negative comments about Nick Saban.  I find it common place to hear about ALL the things that are wrong with this team, and how they should fold up their tents and mail it in for the rest of the season.  There’s no hope whatsoever.  The only reason to watch is to see who will have a worse season. The Dolphins or the Hurricanes?

The last four Super Bowl champions found success in their first four games.  The champion previous to that, however, did not.  The champion previous to that lost its starting quarterback in week 2, lost its fourth game of the season 30-10 to my beloved Dolphins, and saw itself staring at a 1-3 record at the end of the first quarter of their season.  That team was the 2001 New England Patriots, and we all know how that turned out for them.

No, neither Daunte Culpepper nor Joey Harrington is Tom Brady.  But then again, neither was Tom Brady until he was given the chance.  No, Nick Saban is not Bill Belichick, but he is a disciple of Belichick.  For what it’s worth, Saban is in his 2nd year as a head coach.  Belichick was in his second year in 2001.  It’s just another of those NFL tidbits that just ‘fit’. So it shouldn’t surprise you the Dolphins play the Patriots this Sunday.  The football gods know what they are doing.

Only time will tell if the Fins can salvage this season, and this Sunday needs to be a statement game for the Dolphins.  I still believe Daunte will come around and the offense will gel as the season progresses.  The O-Line needs a lot of work, but they will come together as a unit.  Despite what the locals of my hometown say, all is not lost.  However, if come halftime of Sunday’s game a win is already out of reach, at least I can smile knowing the Miami Heat open up the pre-season in a week.