In the off-season the Vikings handed out cash that would make an Arabian prince blink in hopes of turning a young and talented team from an average team to a contender in one fell swoop. Jared Allen, Bernard Berrian, Madieu Williams and Thomas Tapeh were all bought and paid for to bolster a few of the weak spots in the lineup. Unfortunately, none of these new players had a significant impact in last night's game.

Tarvaris Jackson played so poorly that I couldn't help but think, "I wonder how this would be going if Frerotte was in?". No, I'm not suggesting pulling Tarvaris Jackson just yet but last night looked an awful like last season from the quarterback position.

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I've poked fun at the Lions "just being the Lions" in previous posts but after yesterday's game I'm beginning to think I was giving them too much credit. Yes, it's only week 1 but for love of God they looked horrid.

It's not like they played the returning champs or another contender, they play the Falcons and were beaten very soundly with almost no need for Matt Ryan to even play.  Sure, I expected Michael Turner to have a nice season and I expected the Lions to be soft against the run but I think that AP (no not thee AP but the original AP who plays for the Bears) could have racked up 100 yards on the Lions. Do I need to mention that the Lions will see Adrian Peterson (MN), Matt Forte, and Ryan Grant twice each this year, Frank Gore,Clinton Portis, ? I will say now that I don't know what the record for most rushing hards given up in a season is

The Lion's OL got murdered in pass-protection, got murdered in run blocking, and their DL may as well have been Oompa Loompas in the Chocolate room (everything is edible). Kitna was his normal non-factor; highly praised Smith couldn't do anything behind the craptackular OL.  John Abraham looked like Godzilla in downtown Tokyo.

The Lions were an absolute disgrace. Period. 

To top it all off Matt Millen traded Shaun Rogers. OK, let me get this straight your team sucked against the run last season so you trade your best tackle for a 3rd rounder that has appeared to do anything yet and useless DB. If that's not enough Matt Millen says that if Rogers is healthy he will be the defensive player of the year! Now, any President with a single brain cell in his head would say that if you think that highly of a player that you don't trade him for a nobody and a 3rd rounder.  However, this is Matt Millen and he has to be hands down the worst executive in the league. I wish I had the job security to #### up for eight years and still have a job.

OK, Lions rant over, on to the Bears:

The Bears looked pretty good. The defense seemed to be pretty dominant, I wouldn't say they are back to looking like they did a couple years ago but you can see that a healthy Bears defense is much better than what we saw last year.  On offense Orton didn't really do much but didn't make any big mistakes either. Forte was impressive running behind an equally impressive looking OL. Yeah, they beat the Colts pretty good. However, Manning looked very uncomfortable and the pressure the Bears put on him made it hard to throw downfield. Jeff Saturday being out was a bigger factor than people think. I saw several times where the Bears DT would bulrush past Pollak (I think).  Still, the Bears showed that they are capable of beating a good team and now don't appear to be the push-over's many thought they might be.

 

 

 

When it comes to tonight's Vikings VS Packers game there is one thing that will determines the outcome: Line play.

Both teams are patching together OL's and have dominant DL's.

The Packers seem to have the bigger problem, missing starting center Scott Wells who is being replaced by   guard Jason Spitz, who is being replace by  Tony Moll   at RG. They look pretty weak up the middle and will be facing two probowl tackles. Spitz played center during the preseason but most defenses are not running many of their DL gimmicks and wrinkles in preseason. Plus, you have to look for a mishandled snap here and there; I see them dropping one on the turf tonight.  Given the OL problem GB has I see Kevin Williams having a big night. The Packers are going to have to pay special attention to Jared Allen which I think will end up leaving Kevin Williams in single blocks. Pat Williams will also have a big game shutting down the run.  I think Ray Edwards will have a sack tonight as well. GB running game might as well pack it up and go home.

The Vikings have their issues on the OL, Cook will have his hands full with Kampman and Hicks being converted from a guard to replace McKinney will see KGB on passing downs. The good news is that unlike the Packers the Vikings will not be reliant on the passing game to win the game. Hicks and Cook are both much better in run-blocking and with AP and Chester Taylor the Vikings should be able to move the ball behind Hutchinson and Birk. We will see a lot of Jim Kleinsasser at TE and Jeff Dugan at FB tonight on passing downs. Kleinsasser is likely to be matched up with Cook to help with Kampman and Dugan may be lined up as the second TE. The Packers are average up the middle and Herrera, Birk, and Hutchinson will dominate.

Overall, I think that Rodgers will see more pressure than Jackson, Rodgers has more to live up to and this is his first start, and Rodgers doesn't have a running game to lean on. Watch Darren Sharper tonight, Rodgers is going to toss a couple up for grabs with Jared Allen breathing down his neck.

Jackson just needs to manage the game tonight, play mistake free and complete passes in a few key spots for the Vikings will win. The defense and running game will do the rest. On the other hand, Rodgers must perform well and must be a big part of the Packer's offense or they cannot win.

Final prediction: Vikings 24 Packers 17

**Packers Side notes:

1. Packers WR, James Jones is injured and will not be playing tonight.
2. Saftey Atari Bigby has an ankle injury but should play
3. Tackle Chad Clifton has knee and chest injuries but should play
4. DE KGB has a knee injury but should play
5. RB, Ryan Grant has a hamstring injury but will play
6. LB A.J. Hawk has a chest injury but will play
7. Center Scott Wells is out
8. Tackle Josh Sitton is out

*** Vikings Side notes:

1. WR, Robert Ferguson has an Ankle injury but will play
2. Tarvaris Jackson has a knee injury but will play
3. Madieu Williams will be out the next 3 games with a neck injury

 

This post is just a quick little run down of the Packers' roster, injuries, missing players and general thoughts on their roster.

Packers:

•  QB- Aaron Rodgers has exactly zero career starts in the regular season. The good news for the Pack is that he seems to have the respect and support of the team and they are confident that he will do fine. For my part, from what I've seen, Rodgers looks like he has all of the skills needed: a good arm, seems to read defenses well enough, and can make all of the throws. I have no doubt that he will be a good QB in the future. However, he has yet to face an opposing defense in a regular season game with the weight of being thee starting QB on the heels of the greatest QB in the history of GB leaving. There is a ton of pressure: 1st ever start, living up to Farve and huge interdivision game. Add to that if Rodgers does go down, and yes he has a history of injuries, a 7th round rookie will be the starter.
• RB- Grant is slightly above average when healthy and up to speed. At this point it's not a sure thing he will even start. Depth is poor with no real talent behind Grant. However, if Grant does start keep in mind that he had the best game any RB had against the Vikings of all RBs the Vikings faced last season.
• WR- GB's top three are solid, but not great. Jennings is the explosive component and seems to be able to separate from defenders fast after a reception. Donald Driver is more of a possession receiver and has good hands, route running, and field awareness. James Jones seems to be something between Driver and Jennings but has issues with taking care of the ball at times. Overall, Rodgers should benefit from having a solid group of WRs to throw the ball to.
• TE- Donald Lee had his best season last year and 2007 is likely to retain that honor. So far it seems that Rodgers isn't throwing much to TEs, not sure if this is by design or just that he's not doing well with his check downs. Either way I think Lee is if for a slower season.
• OL- Wells being injured and maybe not playing could be a disaster. Having a back up center and a rookie starting isn't good with probably the best defensive line in the NFL coming to town.
• DL- The Packers are decent in the middle of the line but not dominant. Pickett has been nursing a hamstring injury but should be ready to go. KGB is a dominant pass rusher but has a bum knee and has done nothing in preseason. It's doubtful that KGB plays but even if he does he's sure to have limited capacity. His backup Cullen Jenkins is capable but isn't going to intimidate anyone. On the other side of the line one of the most dominant DEs in the league, Aaron Kampman is locked and loaded.
• LB- Barnett is one of the best in the league and Hawk proved his stock last year, but Poppinga showed that he was the week link in the LB core last season.  Much is made of the Packers LB core being one of the best in the league but the Vikings LBs are comparable and better play makers. Vikings LBs combined for 284 tackles, 10 Sacks, 7 Force Fumbles and 3 interceptions last year to GB's  282 Tackles,  5 sacks, 1 FF and 3 INTs.
• DBs- Woodson and Harris are a pair of corners that are pretty damn good. The only nitpick is that Harris when Harris gets beat (it's not real often) he gets beat badly. The Atari Bigby is a playmaker but has an ankle injury. It sounds like he'll be fine to play bit might not be anywhere near 100%.

 

Back in June Dr. Z picked the Vikings to win the Super Bowl. As expected this prediction has in part fueled the talk of championships here in the land of the Purple People Eaters. It's understandable that people are getting excited about the Vikings; I've noticed a lot more people wearing purple lately, because the team certainly has plenty of entertainment factors. Adrian Peterson is perhaps the most exciting player in the league, Jared Allen one of the most dominant pass-rushers in the league, and the defense as a whole has an aggressive ball-hawking style that is pleasing for fans to watch. In addition, a look around the division tells them that the Bears should be the divisional punching bags, the Lions will be the Lions, and best yet, the Packers no longer have Farve. Anyone can see that the Vikings at the very least are in contention for the Division title. After only one playoff appearance in the last seven years the idea of having a good chance to make the playoffs, and maybe, just maybe a Super Bowl has the whole town buzzing.

So, Dr. Z and the fans are excited. Another SI writer, Peter King, is also very high on the Vikings this year ranking them #4 and ESPN Radio's Mike Greenberg has picked the Vikings to win the Super Bowl. With so many of the "experts" picking the Vikings to win the division and some the Super Bowl, it's understandable that so many Vikings fans are excited.

Here's some news for the uninitiated: the so called experts really have no better idea of who is doing what in the NFL this season than we do. It's a total farce. Dr. Z picked the Saints to win the Super Bowl last year, Panthers in 2006 & 2005. Overall, in the last six years Dr. Z's Super Bowl picks have produced:  Thee teams that went 7-9, one that went 8-8, on that made it to the NFC Championship game and lost, and One Super Bowl Champion. Dr. Z picking your team to win the Super Bowl gives them a 67% chance of having a finishing .500 or lower, not exactly what I'd call a good thing.  Peter King's last three predictions have been bombs: Saints in 2007, Cowboys in 2006, and Vikings in 2005. King's three predictions have accounted for zero playoff wins. Mike Greenberg has been better but still not picking any Super Bowl participants.

Bottom-line: Expert predictions are more of seal of doom than a good estimation of a team's quality.

That said, I think the Vikings could be the exception this year and here's why:

First I'll say that I'm in no way prediction that the Vikes will be going to or winning a Super Bowl, I'm just pointing out that they will not be the huge flops that many other Super Bowl picks have been. Now on to my reasoning:

 

1.       Our division. The Vikings should get 4-5 wins this year in the North. The Bears might be able to give USC a run this year, the Lions are the Lions, and the Pack cannot be as strong as last season without Farve.

 

2.       Depth. They have depth at QB, Gus should be able to get a couple of wins if need be. Depth at RB, Chester Taylor could be starting on other NFL teams.

 

3.       Battle of the Lines: Their OL and DL will dominate most opponents' lines. Most of these "flop" teams lacked quality in OL and/or DL.

 

4.       Defense. The purple will have a top 3 defense this season regardless of what the offense does. The defense is better than last year and almost took them to playoffs even with a dysfunctional offense. On the other side the offenses appears to be better than last year as well.

If Dr. Z, Peter King, and Mike Greenberg can make #### out of themselves every year with their predictions I don't see why I can't. Here is how I see the season going:

 

Week 1: @ Packers (1-0 )

Week 2: Colts (1-1) If Manning's knee goes bad the Vikes get a win here

Week 3: Panthers (2-1) Tough game but the Vikes have them at home so I give them the slight edge.

Week 4: @ Titans (3-1) Vince is going to have a Craptacular season.

Week 5: @ Saints (3-2) I think the Saints could be the best team in the NFC; it will be a close game.

Week 6:  Lions (4-2)

Week 7: @ Bears (5-2)

Week 8:  bye

Week 9: Texans (6-2)

Week 10: Packers (7-2)

Week 11: @ Bucs (8-2)

Week 12:  @ Jags (8-3) the Jags will just be too much.

Week 13: Bears (9-3)

Week 14: @ Lions (10-3)

Week 15: @ Cards (11-3)

Week 16: Falcons (12-3)

Week 17: Giants (13-3)

Yup, a little homerish. They probably won't beat GB twice and will probably find a way to lose to the Bears or Lions. However, I think they could beat the Saints and have a chance to beat the Colts. I'll split the difference and say 12-4. Then again 12-4 could only happen if AP and Jackson stay healthy and I doubt that happens. One or the other, maybe both, will most likely miss a game or two this season and cost them a game.  

 

Final record: 11-5, playoffs, will make it to conference championship and lose.

 

 

Left Tackle:

LT is still a concern, of course, and many have suggested Willie Anderson as a possible solution to the problem. As of today the Vikings have not expressed any interest in Willie Anderson. My opinion is that he would not be a good fit here because he played RT  for the Bengal's and would have to both adjust to a new playbook and adapt to playing the left side of the line. The Vikings have decided to go with Artis Hicks at LT and have spent a lot of time grooming him for the move from guard and has impressed the coaching staff. With Hicks coming along better than expected and Anderson being seen as an ill-fitting, aged replacement it is unlikely that the Vikings will sign Anderson.

I'm debating whether not picking up a veteran tackle will end up being a mistake with some very dominate defensive ends on the schedule early. Week 1, the Packers could get KGB or Kampman on Hicks, Week 2 he will see Dwight Freeney, Week 3  Julius Peppers, Week 3 Jevon Kearse or Vanden Bosch, Week 4 Will Smith. Sure some of the DEs listed above are past their prime or coming off  a bad season but you don't want any of them matched up on a young offensive lineman who is moving to a new position. This is bound to cause problems for the Vikings, most obviously against the Packers, because they will almost for sure have to attach someone to Hicks for double teaming/chipping at all times. Kleinsasser will be in a lot more often to double with Hicks, the running backs will be used to chip more often, and Hutchinson may at times be expected to help out.  What that will do to the Vikings offense is take out the TE as a receiver for most of the game, somewhat limit the running backs as receivers, and most concerning is that  Hicks will be covering Tarvaris Jackson's blind side.

The left tackle situation may be a huge problem early in the season for the Vikings passing game considering that they have an improving but not yet proven quarterback. I don't think the run game will be greatly affect because Hicks is a pretty good run-blocker and the change in position should be less difficult on the run side.

 Thoughts on the final roster:

There were not and real shockers when the final roster was released. There was some talk about a battle for the third QB spot but I didn't think that there was really any chance that John David Booty was going to be cut in favor of Brooks Bollinger. Coach Childress wanted to use the third QB roster spot to help develop Booty who they hope will replace Gus Frerotte in the future as the #2 QB. I can't argue against the idea except that it is clear that at this point Booty could not effectively run this offense if called upon. The counter argument to is that most third QBs in the NFL can't effectively run their team's offense and neither can Bollinger.

The Vikings released WR Martin Nance and is the only player on the list of released players that I see being a mistake. Nance was singed as an undrafted Free Agent out of Miami (Ohio) in 2006 by the Buffalo Bills. The Bill released him later that year and he was picked up by the Vikings. The knocks on Nance coming out of college were that he was too slow, didn't run good routes, and had questionable hands. The upside was that he is a big target and had the ability to out jump most defensive backs. He spent 2006 and 2007 on the practice squad showing improvement by the end of each season. This year he came to camp with a legitimate shot of making the team and performed very well catching 8 passes for 144 yards and a TD in preseason. He also showcased his improved hands, his skill at using his larger frame, and his "big play" ability. I'm not saying he should have been a starter or even the 3rd or 4th receiver but he certainly was a better player than Robert Ferguson who was kept instead of Nance as the fifth receiver.

 

 

 

• Chicago will win more than 5 games. QB issues+lackluster running game+questionable defense= The suckling cubs of the midway.


• Larry Johnson returns to his old self.  Horrid o-line+ no passing game= long season for LJ.


• Bengal's turning it around. Maybe the most dysfunctional team in the league despite their talent level. injuries don't help either.


• Patriots going undefeated again.


• Matt Ryan showing that he can start in the NFL.

First, I have to say that the title is a little misleading because I do think the Vikings will win the NFC North this season. However, this entry is to explain reasons that they might not win the NFC North:

#1: WR injuries. Berrian is still hampered by a "turf toe like injury" as he has stated. Even with Berrian healthy the Vikings have a middle of the road WR core, so they really cannot afford to have Berrian limping around all season. Sure, Sidney Rice is a solid WR as well and in fact might end up being a better WR than Berrian by the end of the season but he's still only in his second year and WR generally take about 3 years to develop.

#2: Lack of Depth at Defensive End. Jared Allen isn't injury prone and should be there all season but it's the opposite side of the line I would be worried about. Kenechi Udeze is out with luekemia, Jayme Mitchell is out for the season, and Ray Edwards has a bad back. Edwards being the starter leaves Brian Robison as the first guy off the bench and he is about as good a backup as you can have but he has been injured during the preseason as well. The only other health DE they have is Otis Grigsby and I doubt he'd make too many other NFL rosters.

#3: Matt Birk. No, I'm not worried about this multiple all-pro performing well but I am worried about his 8 hernia surgeries. Birk is also getting old and nearing the end of his career there is a high likelihood that Birk either plays injured or misses at least part of this season. They have Johns Sullivan as Birk's backup and he has played well in the preseason but he is a rookie and center is probably the most difficult of the O-line positions.

#4: Tackles. Bryant McKinney is an All-Pro caliber tackle but will probably be missing a few games this season because he beat a bouncer in the head with a pole. Ryan Cook was horrible early last season but came along well by the end of the season. Cooks still has some work to do in order for him solidify the RT position. Marcus Johnson is the first tackle off the bench and to this point he has been a disappointment for a 2nd round pick. I think Childress will grow tired of his underachieving and by the end of the season Johnson will have his backup role taken away by last years 7th round pick, Chase Johnson. In short, the Vikings do not have depth at tackle, if McKinney is out they are very vulnerable at LT and RT isn't that solid either.

#5:  Madieu Williams and Tyrell Johnson. Williams will be out for the first three weeks, at least. So, Tyrell Johnson this year's second round pick will be starting. At the time of drafting Johnson a lot of people were baffled because they already two very good safeties. Now, the pick looks like a great move. Many experts thought that Johnson was clearly a 1st round talent and so far in the preseason he has looked decent but not great.

 #6: TE: Shiancoe is a great TE because of his consistency, at least you know what to expect from him. Unfortunately, Shiancoe's consistency comes from dropping everything the QBs throw at him and he is on their roster as the "pass catching TE".  The bad news is that the rest of the TEs on the roster are clearly of the blocking type.

#7: CB opposite of Winfield. WInfield will be solid again this year but the other side has Griffin/Gordon neither of which are very good starting CBs.

So, in the end the Vikings could have two rookies starting this year at some point, four injured players on the bench, and three other positions (RT, CB, and TE) that have questionable talent.