This Weekends NASCAR Sprint Cup series race takes the cars back to their birth place, or at least in theory. Michigan is the heart of the American automobile and where all the power of NASCAR derives from. Last season there were lots of grumbles from the suits at General Motors, Ford, and Dodge when Toyota joined the series. For years, these automobile executives have used the Michigan NASCAR races as a show of strength, sort of a Super Bowl for automobiles.
The performance of the Toyotas in both Michigan races were not awful, but it was terrible enough to have the suits snicker and gloat about how much muscle their American cars had over the foreigners. However, the funny thing is that the Toyota Camry on sale to the public is actually more American than the 3 competitors on the circuit. The Ford Fusion is assembled in Mexico, The Chevy Impala and Dodge Charger are both put together in Canada, with only the Dodge Avenger actually being put together in the good old USA. The Toyota Camry is made in Georgetown, Kentucky, a place that is about American as it gets.
Coming into this years race, the Toyota’s are a bit more confident considering their horses under the hood have powered the current Sprint Cup series point leader, Kyle Busch, to a series leading 4 wins. Ford and Dodge have dominated over the years at Michigan combining to win the last 13 races in a row. Chevrolet has been a no show, claiming only two Jeff Gordon wins since 1996, as their only opportunity to boast with the bow-tie among their colleagues.
It’ll really be interesting to watch the cringes from the upper brass in the luxury boxes above Michigan Speedway as Toyota makes a serious run for the win while crashing the big motor party. The Joe Gibbs trio of Busch, Tony Stewart, and Denny Hamlin will all be top contenders to win the race with an outside chance given to another Toyota driven by Red Bull Racing’s Brian Vickers.
The favorite for this weeks race is Carl Edwards’ Ford. Based on his performance at Michigan’s sister track in California and his two other wins on 1.5 mile tracks, he will be tough for anyone to challenge.
I'm still seeing instances of teams not being comfortable in their Car of Tomorrow on tracks that the car didn’t run on last season. There are only a few drivers that have shown consistency on all those tracks that are seeing the COT for the first time. Edwards and Busch lead the way as those having a huge edge over the others.
Two of the drivers that did very well in California back in February, yet have fallen off dramatically from their usual consistent dominance are Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson. They finished 2nd and 3rd at California, but have had some days since that look more reminiscent of a Petty team than Hendrick. They admittedly say they didn’t spend as much time and research for the COT on these type of tracks as they did last season when they feverishly prepared for the COT’s first run on the smaller tracks and it truly shows.
I already stated how big of a slump Chevy has been in at Michigan. The slump actually started one race before Johnson started his Cup career. In 12 races there, Johnson only has two top 5 finishes with a best of third coming in the fall race last season. Perhaps the change in car will be a benefit this season, but going winless in the 12 previous races is puzzling because of how similar California and Michigan are and also how dominant Johnson has been at California since winning there as a rookie.
Let’s stay with the trend of a Chevy not winning this week. The due theory is very overrated and if it was played consistently at Michigan and you were a betting man, your bankroll would have evaporated long ago when Bill Elliott took his Ford to the winners circle 6 of 8 races in the mid-eighties.
I really like the concept of seeing Toyota not only winning to the dismay of the American Auto Giants, but maybe even finishing 1-2. Tony Stewart impressed at Charlotte and finished 7th at California. Kyle Busch has been good everywhere, but just for fun we’ll mention his 4th place finish at California.
Happy Fathers Day
Finally, I'd like to wish all the Fathers a Happy Fathers day out there, including my own. It’s ironic once again that the Michigan race in the motor city happens to be on Fathers day because working on American muscle cars of the 60’s and 70’s was something that my father and I did often together.
He’d buy a wrecked GTO, bring it to the garage and go to work on it rebuilding the engine, transmission, body work, paint, and then regrettably for me, end up selling it for a profit. I loved those cars and hated to see them go, but looking back, I love those memories with my father spending countless hours in the garage night after night. He let me help at my leisure, never demanding help, and slowly in time, what looked like work became the most fun thing in my life.
It gave me a love for those muscle cars and in general an appreciation for anyone who could go faster than some one else in any type of motor racing.
It’s been a while, but every once in a while I get the urge to go the junkyard and pick out a mangled 68’ Camaro and drop it off at his garage and say, “Dad, let’s go to have some fun”.
This Saturday Night the NASCAR Sprint Cup teams begin a stretch where most of them will likely be home for close to 3 weeks. Just about everyone involved with a NASCAR Cup team lives around the Charlotte area. This week they have the NASCAR All Star race at Lowe’s Motor Speedway and then the following week they’ll run the Coca-Cola 600 on the same track before heading to Dover on June 1st. The trip from last weeks race at Darlington is only about an hour and a half away from the Charlotte area so everyone should be relaxed, comfortable, and well rested for the next few weeks.
The Format for the All-Star race is set to ensure the winners from the last year are all involved. There is a qualifying race that allows for some of the lesser drivers to race their way in and then there is a fan vote that allows for one driver to be voted in. In all, there are 24 drivers that will be participating for their share of the $3.3 million dollar purse. The winner of the event will win over $1 million. Needless to say, that kind of cash will not produce the traditional type of All-Star game like other sports have where everyone goes through motions, all smiles and joking with each other.
The stakes are so high in this one that the only loyalty a driver has on the track is for himself. There are no teammates, no friends or family. Last season in this race, Kyle Busch wanted to win so bad he pushed his car to the limit until it ultimately wrecked himself into his brother, Kurt Busch, ending the race for both of them. That one scene of two brothers wrecking each other is the perfect synopsis to what this race is all about.
To narrow down the top candidates to win, we have to begin looking at the results from this seasons races at Las Vegas, Atlanta, and Texas because of how similar Charlotte is to those three facilities. Whoever had things figured out in those 3 races will be on their game this week for the All-Star race as well as next week in the Coca-Cola 600. The list of top drivers in those races begins with Carl Edwards who won at Las Vegas and Texas. The Jack Roush team really has things figured out on the high banked mile and a half tracks. Last season it was Jimmie Johnson who dominated on all those tracks and the previous year it was Kasey Kahne. If there is one thing we saw in each of Johnson and Kahne’s cases was they just didn’t stop at winning two, they just about won them all.
Edwards will definitely be the driver to beat and he’ll likely win the Coca-Cola 600 next week, but this race seems like its destined to be either Dale Earnhardt Jr’s or Kyle Busch’s. The two have a great rivalry going and both have a little bit of a mean streak in them that makes it possible to believe they would bump anyone out of the way for $1 million. Junior seems to be the choice of the two because he has become the King of non-points races, which this one is. Junior won the Bud Shootout and a Gatorade Duel at Daytona, but hasn’t won a real race in 73 races.
So we’ll go with Junior to win the race because of his attitude and also because he’s got a pretty good car. At Vegas, Junior finished 2nd to Edwards. In Atlanta, Junior was 3rd and in Texas he was 12th. He won this race as a rookie in 2000 and was chosen to do so by Lowe’s Motor Speedway president, Humpy Wheeler. Wheeler has picked 10 of the last 19 winners in the All-Star race, however, he has been in a two year slump. Wheeler is supposed to reveal his choice on Wednesday and I'm sure they'll be taking notes in Vegas. I’ll say Humpy breaks out of his slump and chooses Junior.
An absolute dream finish of 1-2-3 would be 88-18-99.
If there is one track on the NASCAR circuit that embodies the roots of NASCAR, it is without a doubt Darlington Raceway, site of this Saturday night’s Cup race. The first race was run at Darlington on Labor Day weekend, 1950 and it was called the Southern 500. That race was run on the same weekend for the next 54 years until coming to a close in 2004.
The move irritated many traditionalists, not just because of losing the date, but because of the wound it made, how symbolic it was, and the lack of success that Labor Day weekend date has now on the track it calls home. Just like the Brooklyn Dodgers and New York Giants after the 1957 baseball season, Darlington’s Southern 500 was moved to California. It gave the loyalists another reason to dislike this expansion age of NASCAR and long for the days when they could see a Cup nearly every few week within 600 of where they lived. Unlike the Dodgers and Giants, who turned out to be one of the most profitable teams in baseball and in the Dodgers case, one of the winningest, California’s NASCAR dates have been a flop.
The California dates do not sell out despite the facility having one of the smallest seating capacities on tour with 90,000. Was it worth it? The objective for NASCAR was to take charge of the number two market and turn them all into rabid fans, just like ones that attended twice a year at Darlington. The France family must have figured that if they hit the top markets enough with their races that TV ratings will go up in those areas during the 34 weeks they aren’t running there. If the ratings are up, then they can charge more for their next Network contract.
Southern California people are a much different breed than those on the South and North Carolina borders and they surely are not going to have the reverence put into each race there as those in the Southeast. In Southern Cal, they really don’t care about the races, whether it stays or goes, whereas, “The Lady in Black” at Darlington was always treated with dignity, respect, and as a part of everyone’s family.
This week the teams will get a real treat on the Day before Mother’s Day. The Gritty shell filled sandpaper asphalt that had become a staple of the tracks’ features has now been replaced by a brand new smooth, modern age asphalt. Tires should last much longer which changes the whole complexion of how the race will be driven.
I always liked Darlington because the track became an equalizer and was just as important to know how to run as it was to have a great set-up and good driver. Certain drivers got it, and others didn’t. Dale Earnhardt Jr, never seemed to get it at Darlington. He may not have ever had the best car there, but he surely wasn’t patient enough from the beginning of a run with fresh tires. Again, these are just my own observations from watching lap times over the years there. I have never actually ever heard anyone criticize him for that. Junior would be ultra fast from the beginning and then tail off miserably for the last half of the run because he wore his tires out too quickly. Rusty Wallace started 43 races at Darlington with great cars and never won because he couldn’t hold back early on for the sake of being better late in the runs.
None of that “saving tire stuff” matters anymore because the surface is much different and those strategies that some of the best Darlington drivers like Dale Earnhardt, David Pearson, and Jeff Gordon used will not be as valuable.
So what should be the key component in identifying who will do the best this week? They used the Car of Tomorrow at this race last year with Jeff Gordon winning for the 7th time in his career there. Denny Hamlin led the most laps and finished 2nd while Jimmie Johnson, a two time winner there, led the most laps for the last 100 miles. It’s more likely that the top finishers this week will resemble what we have seen for the entire season of races, excluding the plate races, which means that Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Busch will be at the forefront once again.
Dale Earnhardt Jr fits the current criteria and will have a great shot at besting his Darlington best of 4th because of the new surface.
I'll go with a 1-2-3 of No. 99, No. 11, and No. 88, with a strong look at Mark Martin in the No. 8 going for his first win there since 1993.
Crown Royal 400 @ Richmond – May 3, 2008 This Saturday night in the Capital of the Confederacy, a nationally televised audience will get to witness one of NASCAR’s wildest crowds on the circuit. Richmond’s three-quarter mile track will serve as the stage for what will turn out to be the best action adventure on Saturday night’s TV lineup. Because the track is relatively short, the drivers get to play a little bumper cars, which in turn gets a few drivers in hostile moods, which results in the crowd roaring with approval. The whole process really plays out well on TV.
Richmond is listed as a short track because of its dimensions, but it runs nothing like Bristol or Martinsville. Taking a cue from the crew chiefs, the best way to figure out who will do well this week is look at recent results from Phoenix and New Hampshire. The three tracks look nothing alike but the correlation between the three is very strong. If a team has success on one of them, chances are they’ll be good on the other two.
Each of the top running teams from Phoenix will likely bring the exact same chassis to Richmond. Jimmie Johnson won at Phoenix a few weeks ago for his first victory of the season. When including last seasons results from the 6 races at Phoenix, New Hampshire, and Richmond, you’ll see that Johnson has 3 more wins from that group and a worst finish of 6th. Johnson swept the Richmond races last season.
Johnson has shown some vulnerability this year, but only on the larger tracks, or rather, the tracks that didn’t run the Car of Tomorrow last season. The team has admitted that they are behind the likes of Joe Gibbs and Jack Roush in that area. The area that the Hendrick cars are still tops in the business is the flat mid-range tracks of Phoenix, New Hampshire, and Richmond. Those cars they dominated with last season are still in tact, better than everyone else, and are ready to roll again this week.
Jeff Gordon finished 4th in both races last season and had a win at Phoenix. At New Hampshire, Gordon finished 2nd twice. His worst finish in the six races was a 10th at Phoenix. This year at Phoenix, Gordon finished 13th. Gordon has always had a tough time in Richmond. In 30 career starts he only has 16 top 10 finishes and has only won twice. The lack of success at Richmond, like the success he’s enjoyed at just about every other track, is much to the delight of the Richmond Rowdies. For some reason they like to see Gordon have a bad night of racing.
Since we’re discussing Richmond, Virginia we should mention a few Virginians that have a shot at winning this week. Denny Hamlin and Jeff Burton are great candidates to win. Elliott Sadler is also from Virginia, but he doesn’t have much chance. Hamlin comes in with his Gibbs Toyota and has the third best COT average on the 6 tracks combined, behind Gordon and Johnson. At Phoenix this season, Hamlin finished a strong 3rd. Hamlin stands out this week because of his desire to win on his state's soil. Last season he tried so hard to win and bring something positive to all Virginians after the horrific shootings on the campus of Virginia Tech. At both Martinsville and Richmond last season Hamlin finished 3rd and 6th in the four races. This season he has already crossed off Martinsville with a win there last month. This week, look for him to cross off Richmond as well.
Jeff Burton is a candidate to do well because of how well the Childress organization has collectively run on the flat mid-range tracks. They were already great with Kevin Harvick on these tracks before the COT. In 2006 Harvick won 4 of the 6 races run at Phoenix, New Hampshire, and Richmond. The COT program started a little slow last season but they were respectable until Clint Bowyer took the big win at New Hampshire. In their first crack at it this season in Phoenix, two of the Childress drivers finished in the top 6 with Bowyer taking 2nd and Burton 6th.
Burton currently leads in points, but you can forget about him points racing. He hasn’t won in his home state since 1998, which is his one and only Richmond win. He knows he’ll have the car this week capable of winning and he wants it almost as bad as Hamlin does for the same reasons.
The Wild Card for the Richmond race is Kyle Busch. He was instrumental in the Hendrick progression to their current dominance at Richmond. In both the old car and the COT, no one has been consistently better than Busch at Richmond. In 6 Richmond starts, he’s finished in the top 5 five times, including 2nd to Johnson in this race last year. On these flat tracks that we have bunched together as a group, Busch has been strong. He didn’t get a win on any of them last season because his teammates pigged most of them, but in 2006 he won at New Hampshire and in 2005 he won at Phoenix as a rookie. Could Richmond be next?
Carl Edwards brings Ford’s best shot at winning this week. He was 4th in Phoenix and will surely contend with all the top teams. Edwards teammate, Matt Kenseth, is someone that could use a good finish. Kenseth has done rather well at these tracks over his career posting wins at both Phoenix and Richmond. Last season, Kenseth had the best COT program among the Ford’s on these tracks. His first shot this year at Phoenix ended with a poor run due to an accident.
Mark Martin and Martin Truex Jr both had great runs at Phoenix which will have them fare well this week. Martin was 5th and Truex Jr was 8th. Like the Childress group, DEI got a late start of the COT, but as the season went on they were very competitive. Truex Jr finished 3rd and 5th in the two New Hampshire races and 7th in the fall Phoenix race. The No. 8 car that Dale Earnhardt Jr used to drive won three times in Richmond. The duo may not have enough to run with Hendrick or Gibbs this week, but they should have a solid finish.
Over the last few years of reviewing all the races and narrowing down the list of candidates to win, Richmond, Phoenix, and New Hampshire have been by far the easiest races for myself to consistantly calculate. The trends going into each race just hold up so well and so perfect. Very rarely does something happen that wasn’t told or given mention to by looking at the stats and past races. Once in a while something crazy happens like Jeremy Mayfield winning at Richmond in 2004, but for the most part, these races hold pretty true.
I'll go with the 11 to win, the 07 to place, and the 48 to show.
After being spoiled week after week with solid NASCAR Sprint Cup racing, the series took the week off much to the dismay of the rabid NASCAR nation. However, most fans will attest that they would certainly give a week away and wait two weeks in order to receive a gift wrapped order of Talladega Superspeedway racing.
This track is an absolute monster; it’s the biggest, meanest, most intimidating track on the planet. Because of that danger, the race takes on a completely different realm for fans, drivers, and teams alike that is equaled by no other racing facility. By simply defying physics, the laws of gravity, and knowing what the drastic consequences could be if just the slightest mistake in the draft is made makes Talladega the single most edge of your seat track for Fans.
Nobody wants to see wrecks, but people like to see others challenge the norm and take it to the limit. Human nature has always been intrigued with those unfazed by risks. The circus thrilled mankind as far back as ancient Rome with their lion tamers and then much later watched in terror as trapeze artist and tightrope walkers defied gravity. In more recent history, Evel Knievil’s daredevil jumps paved the way for pay-per-view as we know it today because people across the world wanted tp pay just to hold their breath and see what happens.
Once again on Sunday, Talladega will not disappoint. It will be action packed and guaranteed to keep you entertained and on the edge of your seat. Not so coincidentally, that is the sort of claim and same guarantee that Barnum and Bailey or Ringling Brothers made when they rolled into a town for a show.
All eyes this week will be on the No. 88 car driven by Dale Earnhardt Jr, the overwhelming fan favorite at the track, as he makes his first start at Talladega with Hendrick Motorsports and his 300th career Cup race start. Junior has raced in 16 Cup races at Talladega and has won 5 times times.
During one stretch from 2001-2004, Junior won 5 of 7 Talladega races and in the process set a track record by winning 4 straight. The feeling with most in the garages is that Junior is now ready to get back to that 2001-2004 level since he is now driving for the team that has the most recent success in restrictor plate races.
From 2001-2004, the DEI duo of Michael Waltrip and Junior won 11 restrictor plate races in 16 opportunities at Talladega and Daytona. During DEI’s last true year of dominance in plate races, a new era was evolving for Hendrick Motorsports which was reacquainting themselves with success in plate races. Jeff Gordon took two plate races in 2004 after going winless in 14 straight races. They had much success in the late nineties with 5 plate wins, including two Daytona 500 wins and then somehow it got away from them, or seemingly coincided with Ray Evernham leaving as Gordon’s crew chief and main source of data for the entire Hendrick team.
Whatever the case may be on why some teams have dominated over certain periods may always remain a mystery. Some teams adapted with certain required body templates sooner than others, but most say it’s about who’s the most clever at getting more horsepower to the engine. We say “clever” as another term to what others may call it, “Cheating”. Remember, it ain’t cheatin’ unless you get caught. I certainly believe it is a little of both and also believe it is a part of NASCAR that is, and always will remain, as part of the sport no matter what a raving steroid crazed media believes should deem okay.
As Junior embarks on his 2nd plate race journey with Hendrick, his team will definitely be searching for edge to help break his 70 race winless streak. He’s run well this season and has been rewarded with sitting 3rd place in points. Despite all the early good finishes, Junior wants to win at Talladega, the place his father dominated and won a track record 10 times.
Should Junior win, it would make him the 4th driver in 5 consecutive Talladega races to win in a Hendrick car. Jeff Gordon swept the two Talladega races last season, while in 2006, Brian Vickers and Jimmie Johnson won. Their plate record may not be as impressive as the DEI run, but from 2004-2007, Hendrick cars have won 9 of 16 plate races. The cycle for both DEI and Hendrick is almost similar.
Here we are one plate race into the 2008 season and Hendrick doesn’t claim it. In fact the craziest of occurrences happened in this years Daytona 500…..a Dodge won! Since 2001, only two Ford’s have won in plate races in 29 total events. Ryan Newman’s Dodge won at Daytona making a gap of 24 races between Dodge wins. I think you all get the point, but just to put the cherry on top, the last Dodge to win at Talladega was driven by Dave Marcis in 1976.
Clearly, Chevrolet has dominated the plate races, and most especially at Talladega. With all the statistical history we have placed before you, it may come as a surprise that the favorite to win this week drive Toyota’s. Even though neither Tony Stewart nor Kyle Busch won the Daytona 500, they dominated and were clearly the two best cars on the track with the slight edge given to Busch who not only had a horsepower edge, but also came up with the best handling car on the track, a combination hard to beat when both areas are clicking at the same time.
Tony Stewart has the distinction of tying an all-time NASCAR record while racing at Talladega. Stewart has finished 2nd at Talladega 6 times without winning. That ties him with Alabaman Bobby Allison at Martinsville and Mark Martin at Pocono. Talladega remains one of four current Cup tracks that Stewart has never won on. He’s gone winless in 18 starts at Talladega which 3 more than Darlington, 4 more than California, and 8 more than Las Vegas.
I'm going to look for Stewart to take his proven solid strategy of getting near the front at the end of the race, and look for him to take his new Toyota to the winners circle for the first time. It would be a first for Stewart on the season, in his new car, and ever at Talladega. It would also allow him to join his two Gibbs teammates, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin, as winners on the season.
The majority of Stewart’s wins come in the later junction of the season, but this may be a race Stewart would like to take care of after so many close calls. It is also likely the “Bridesmaid” title doesn’t suit Stewart too well.
The driver I think we should also look at is Kurt Busch. He pushed himself to a 2nd place finish in the Daytona 500 while propelling his teammate to the win. He hasn’t come close to that kind of run since and will be looking forward to getting the teams’ plate program out there again. In the last 10 years of racing at Talladega, no one has a better average finish than Kurt Busch with a 10.0 average in 14 starts. He has almost as many 3rd place finishes, four, as Stewart has 2nd's. In Busch’s last 7 starts there, he hasn’t finished worse than 8th which says a lot considering how volatile the track is and also that he never drove a Chevy in any of those starts.
