The NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Loudon, New Hampshire this weekend has already been played out somewhat because of what we have seen at two separate tracks already this season. The future can be seen as well as any combination of tracks on the circuit by observing what happens on the three similar tracks of New Hampshire, Richmond, and Phoenix.

All three of the tracks are varied in shape and size, but the one common denominator is that they are all relatively flat. The successful crew chiefs always bring the same chassis that did well on one of those particular tracks to the next on the mid-flat track circuit. The history at Loudon shows that if you are good on one of the three tracks, you’ll likely be good on all three no matter what era or model of car.

Last season, the first year of the COT proved to be just as predictable as the old models with Jimmie Johnson winning 3 of the 6 combined spring and fall races at each track. In 2006 Kevin Harvick put on a show dominating in 4 of the 6 races. In fact, of all the years of having two races at New Hampshire, only 2001 stands out as a year where there was no multiple winners by one driver.

Kurt Busch held the title belt for a while passed on from Dale Earnhardt Jr, Johnson again, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Burton, Tony Stewart, Burton again, and Dale Jarrett. Prior to those drivers, Terry Labonte, Rusty Wallace, and Davey Allison were paving the way for modern day teams as they tied together the similarities between Phoenix and Richmond, the blue print of which still exists today.

Having exhausted myself with all that fanatical ranting, the driver to look at this week is a driver that hasn’t even won yet at Phoenix or Richmond. Jimmie Johnson and Clint Bowyer visited the winners circle in those races, but the car that perhaps may have been the most dominant combined in both races was Denny Hamlin’s.

Hamlin finished 3rd in the fuel gambled win by Johnson at Phoenix and then led 381 laps at Richmond until his tire went flat. When Hamlin was taken out of the mix, Kyle Busch battled Junior for the win and almost wrecked each other. When they wobbled and slowed, Bowyer swooped in with the cherry pickin’ win.

So if you look at the actual races and what happened and see who dominated them, or at least did well in both, you should have a good head start at choosing a legitimate driver to win. Junior falls into that category because he ran very well at both without the final results saying so, plus he’s got several combined wins at Phoenix and Richmond during his career.

Another driver that fits criteria is Mark Martin who was leading at Phoenix before having to pit at the end of the race. He finished 5th there and then came back with a 3rd at Richmond. The issue this week is that this is one of the races Martin steps aside for rookie Aric Almirola. The car will be good and Almirola presents a decent long shot chance of winning. No one will give him shot just because he’s Aric Almirola, but we do know his car is set up perfect for him to achieve possibly his best career run.

The other good car at D.E.I. is Martin Truex Jr who has taken his car to two top ten finishes in the two races run, being one of only five drivers in the two races to finish in the top ten in both.

Kyle Busch will likely be Hamlin’s toughest competition this week. In 6 Loudon starts he has 3 top 5 finishes that include one win. If it comes down to the two at the end of the race, I’d look for Kyle to take a back seat to Hamlin if Hamlin is up front late. Hamlin won’t buy that theory though because he knows Kyle will bump anyone if it gets him in the win, so Hamlin will have to drive like it’s the plague chasing him.

So how about the 11 and 88 finishing 1-2, or vice-versa?

The road race season begins this week in the NASCAR Sprint Cup series. The season consists of only two races, this week at Sonoma and next month in Watkins Glen. However, those two races are a huge change of pace and a welcome sight after watching a few of the same drivers winning every week in races that require similar set ups.

I am definitely in the minority being someone who actually likes the road courses, or at least I was. Many long time NASCAR fans despise the road courses citing that the roads and right turns take away the spirit and very embodiment that makes NASCAR different from the other motor sports. I can understand that point of view, but intruding on one-eighteenth of the season schedule with some diversity shouldn’t make too many grumble, should it?

 Other than seeing a track layout completely different than what we normally see, my favorite reason for enjoying the road courses is to watch some of the Cup regulars struggle. I’m not a negative person and don’t take delight in others misery, but watching some of the best drivers in the world struggle at their craft is somewhat entertaining. Watching a road course specialist take over a car from a lowly financed team and finish better than the corporate mega-racing teams, now that is fun to watch!

What other races do we have on the circuit where David has a chance to slay Goliath? Every once in a while a few decades ago there used to be a place for the low budget cars where we would see an occasional win. Then, almost like what Wal-Mart has done to the Ma and Pa stores in America, The multi-car teams wiped out the little man and their chances to do well in races.

I’m attempting to get you all somehow excited for this race because many don’t like it. This race is all about the driver and less about the car, a ratio that is not comparable to on any other track. Most the time the driver just mashes the pedal and lets the corporate multi-tested horsepower do the work for them. Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Kasey Kahne are fine drivers, buts it’s less about them than it is having such a great research staff, crew and car.

Now, I’ve given you the possibilities and what I believe, or want to believe, but here are the facts. Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart win just about every road course race. They have taken all their high financed equipment and parlayed that with their exceptional road racing skills to dominate everyone. We have seen a few drivers step up like Juan Pablo Montoya last year at Sonoma and Kevin Harvick the year before at Watkins Glen, and even Robby Gordon has won a couple during the Gordon/Stewart reign, but that’s about it of late.

So I guess I’ll detract some things I mentioned and clarify by saying there are more possibilities on a road course for someone else to contend. Whether its been fuel mileage or sequence of pitting, there are several instances of lower tiered drivers, or some of the hired assassins, being in contention for a win while beating several of the top name drivers in NASCAR. I love that part of it, simply for the reason of pure possibilities. Road course events in NASCAR are definitely a pleasant change.

Enough rambling, who is going to win? It used to be Jeff Gordon would be the short favorite followed by Tony Stewart and then a bunch of other long shot drivers just because they won all the time. This season there are about seven drivers that have a good shot of winning without having to win by just luck of the pit strategy.

Scott Pruett from Ganassi Racing is the only non-Cup regular who is considered a legitimate candidate to win. Ron Fellows and Boris Said are on the next tier of drivers capable, but Pruett's car gives him the slight edge over the other two quality hired guns. He’ll have good equipment and he’ll also have an edge over most in driving skills, not to mention the track also his considered his home track.

Jeff Gordon still leads the way a co-favorite with 9 career road course Cup wins. Stewart is the other favorite with 6 career road course Cup wins, and having done so more recently than Gordon with a win at Watkins Glen last season. The two have mixed it several times on the roads and on one occasion, Stewart took his shot at punching the road course bully in the mouth. One road race early in Stewart’s career, he raced Gordon hard after only a couple laps and then punted him while battling for position on a straightaway. It was strong message sent and led to a changing of the guard. Gordon had won 7 road races up that point and has only 2 more road wins since. Stewart has literally taken the road course crown and title belt away from Gordon.

Robby Gordon led the most last season in this race and finished 16th after all the late pit strategies. In 2003, Gordon swept the road course races while driving for Richard Childress. The difference over the last couple of years for Gordon and why he hasn’t been able to win since then has been equipment. He is one of the most talented drivers, and because of that, regardless of how terrible the team he owns and drives for is, he is a strong contender. In every race this season Gordon been a huge underdog given little chance to win. For this race, he is a top contender and respected very much. That is the ultimate compliment to his skills that he can so dramatically change perception of his driving ability simply by the course. he is the perfect example o####uy that give hope to the possibilities and just how possible it is for someone in a jalopy to do well.

Juan Pablo Montoya qualified very poorly last season at Sonoma which put him at a huge disadvantage from the start. Once practice started, Montoya unleashed his fury and showcased his skills by running the fastest lap in the final two practice sessions. He still had to come from the back and the furthest anyone had ever come back from to win at Sonoma was 13th. In 15 of the previous 16 Sonoma races, the worst start position was 7th. Montoya was starting 32nd. Impossible! Obviously not for JP who went the last 40 green flag laps conserving fuel throughout and won a smart race.

Hard to go against 24 and 20, but I'll go with with Pruett and Montoya to finish 1-2. And no, I don't think Montoya will feel any remorse for what he did in the Busch race at Mexico City last season. JP would do the same thing again if the opportunity presented itself. I just think Pruett will be smarter and not let him get that close again. 

Side Note: An interesting note regarding this weeks race being held in Sonoma is that 7 current Cup drivers hail from California. That is more than any other state, including great race driver producing states of North Carolina and Virginia, which is definitely a sign that NASCAR has come a long way.

Dale Jr on Fathers Day….Very Cool! The Michigan race last week was one of the better races I’ve seen in a while just because of the tension filled drama late in the race. How Dale Jr was able to last that many laps with the amount of fuel they had is a mystery.

Naturally, me wanting to put more fiction into the scene and read more into it couldn’t help but think about other times I thought some paranormal activity was going on. Was it possible someone was looking after Dale Jr in some way during that Pepsi 400 at Daytona, the first race there after Dale Sr passed away there? Was it possible someone was looking after Junior getting out of his harness straps in the burning corvette during a sports car race he participated in?

I don’t know the answer. It’s fun to speculate, but a 76 race winless streak was a huge #### on his back that has been lifted. Don’t know how it happened, but it did and it’s good for the sport.

This Saturday Night the NASCAR Sprint Cup teams begin a stretch where most of them will likely be home for close to 3 weeks. Just about everyone involved with a NASCAR Cup team lives around the Charlotte area. This week they have the NASCAR All Star race at Lowe’s Motor Speedway and then the following week they’ll run the Coca-Cola 600 on the same track before heading to Dover on June 1st. The trip from last weeks race at Darlington is only about an hour and a half away from the Charlotte area so everyone should be relaxed, comfortable, and well rested for the next few weeks.

The Format for the All-Star race is set to ensure the winners from the last year are all involved. There is a qualifying race that allows for some of the lesser drivers to race their way in and then there is a fan vote that allows for one driver to be voted in. In all, there are 24 drivers that will be participating for their share of the $3.3 million dollar purse. The winner of the event will win over $1 million. Needless to say, that kind of cash will not produce the traditional type of All-Star game like other sports have where everyone goes through motions, all smiles and joking with each other.

The stakes are so high in this one that the only loyalty a driver has on the track is for himself. There are no teammates, no friends or family. Last season in this race, Kyle Busch wanted to win so bad he pushed his car to the limit until it ultimately wrecked himself into his brother, Kurt Busch, ending the race for both of them. That one scene of two brothers wrecking each other is the perfect synopsis to what this race is all about.

To narrow down the top candidates to win, we have to begin looking at the results from this seasons races at Las Vegas, Atlanta, and Texas because of how similar Charlotte is to those three facilities. Whoever had things figured out in those 3 races will be on their game this week for the All-Star race as well as next week in the Coca-Cola 600. The list of top drivers in those races begins with Carl Edwards who won at Las Vegas and Texas. The Jack Roush team really has things figured out on the high banked mile and a half tracks. Last season it was Jimmie Johnson who dominated on all those tracks and the previous year it was Kasey Kahne. If there is one thing we saw in each of Johnson and Kahne’s cases was they just didn’t stop at winning two, they just about won them all.

Edwards will definitely be the driver to beat and he’ll likely win the Coca-Cola 600 next week, but this race seems like its destined to be either Dale Earnhardt Jr’s or Kyle Busch’s. The two have a great rivalry going and both have a little bit of a mean streak in them that makes it possible to believe they would bump anyone out of the way for $1 million. Junior seems to be the choice of the two because he has become the King of non-points races, which this one is. Junior won the Bud Shootout and a Gatorade Duel at Daytona, but hasn’t won a real race in 73 races.

So we’ll go with Junior to win the race because of his attitude and also because he’s got a pretty good car. At Vegas, Junior finished 2nd to Edwards. In Atlanta, Junior was 3rd and in Texas he was 12th. He won this race as a rookie in 2000 and was chosen to do so by Lowe’s Motor Speedway president, Humpy Wheeler. Wheeler has picked 10 of the last 19 winners in the All-Star race, however, he has been in a two year slump. Wheeler is supposed to reveal his choice on Wednesday and I'm sure they'll be taking notes in Vegas. I’ll say Humpy breaks out of his slump and chooses Junior.

 

An absolute dream finish of 1-2-3 would be 88-18-99.

 

 

 

If there is one track on the NASCAR circuit that embodies the roots of NASCAR, it is without a doubt Darlington Raceway, site of this Saturday night’s Cup race. The first race was run at Darlington on Labor Day weekend, 1950 and it was called the Southern 500. That race was run on the same weekend for the next 54 years until coming to a close in 2004.

The move irritated many traditionalists, not just because of losing the date, but because of the wound it made, how symbolic it was, and the lack of success that Labor Day weekend date has now on the track it calls home. Just like the Brooklyn Dodgers and New York Giants after the 1957 baseball season, Darlington’s Southern 500 was moved to California. It gave the loyalists another reason to dislike this expansion age of NASCAR and long for the days when they could see a Cup nearly every few week within 600 of where they lived. Unlike the Dodgers and Giants, who turned out to be one of the most profitable teams in baseball and in the Dodgers case, one of the winningest, California’s NASCAR dates have been a flop.

The California dates do not sell out despite the facility having one of the smallest seating capacities on tour with 90,000. Was it worth it? The objective for NASCAR was to take charge of the number two market and turn them all into rabid fans, just like ones that attended twice a year at Darlington. The France family must have figured that if they hit the top markets enough with their races that TV ratings will go up in those areas during the 34 weeks they aren’t running there. If the ratings are up, then they can charge more for their next Network contract.

Southern California people are a much different breed than those on the South and North Carolina borders and they surely are not going to have the reverence put into each race there as those in the Southeast. In Southern Cal, they really don’t care about the races, whether it stays or goes, whereas, “The Lady in Black” at Darlington was always treated with dignity, respect, and as a part of everyone’s family.

This week the teams will get a real treat on the Day before Mother’s Day. The Gritty shell filled sandpaper asphalt that had become a staple of the tracks’ features has now been replaced by a brand new smooth, modern age asphalt. Tires should last much longer which changes the whole complexion of how the race will be driven.

I always liked Darlington because the track became an equalizer and was just as important to know how to run as it was to have a great set-up and good driver. Certain drivers got it, and others didn’t. Dale Earnhardt Jr, never seemed to get it at Darlington. He may not have ever had the best car there, but he surely wasn’t patient enough from the beginning of a run with fresh tires. Again, these are just my own observations from watching lap times over the years there. I have never actually ever heard anyone criticize him for that. Junior would be ultra fast from the beginning and then tail off miserably for the last half of the run because he wore his tires out too quickly. Rusty Wallace started 43 races at Darlington with great cars and never won because he couldn’t hold back early on for the sake of being better late in the runs.

None of that “saving tire stuff” matters anymore because the surface is much different and those strategies that some of the best Darlington drivers like Dale Earnhardt, David Pearson, and Jeff Gordon used will not be as valuable.

So what should be the key component in identifying who will do the best this week? They used the Car of Tomorrow at this race last year with Jeff Gordon winning for the 7th time in his career there. Denny Hamlin led the most laps and finished 2nd while Jimmie Johnson, a two time winner there, led the most laps for the last 100 miles. It’s more likely that the top finishers this week will resemble what we have seen for the entire season of races, excluding the plate races, which means that Carl Edwards, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Busch will be at the forefront once again.

Dale Earnhardt Jr fits the current criteria and will have a great shot at besting his Darlington best of 4th because of the new surface.

I'll go with a 1-2-3 of No. 99, No. 11, and No. 88, with a strong look at Mark Martin in the No. 8 going for his first win there since 1993.