It's amazing if you look at all the drivers who have tamed Bristol at night, they are all either former champions of the highest of respected superstars on the circuit. What that means is that the drivers with the most respect don't get preyed upon like they do with the lesser accomplished, or what I like to call crumbs or scrubs.

In reality a driver could punt someone on each turn. Depending on who's car it is in front of them, a calculated risk is then determined by the driver what the consequences may be. "Do I really want to be in Tony Stewart's dog house?" or, "Do I really care if Martin Truex Jr is mad at me?"

In these races it is very easy to be conservative in picking a driver to win. Long shots just don't happen in this race. It's got to be someone with lots of respect in the garages and it's got to be someone who is brash enough to not be afraid of punting someone on the last few laps. Finally, it's also got to be someone on a much higher plateau in NASCAR. For this race I'll go with Junior to get his first win and it's the perfect spot on the season to do so. NASCAR's brighest star will shine more than all the others Saturday night.