I like the Giants, Cowboys, Broncos, Cardinals, and Jaguars.
Giants and Jags seem like nice choices at home while the others attempt to get things done on the road.
I do honestly believe the Broncos will defeat the Falcons, just because Shanahan will be forced to throw on nearly every down and Cutler will put up 5 scores. Denver needs just a couple of stops on the Falcons offense which has been great at home.
Easier said than done, but they are a much more efficient team when they scrap the run as was the case the first few games of the season and then last week at Cleveland in the 4th quarter. The days of a 1,000 yard back in Denver are over. This will be the 2nd straight year they have not done it.
The game I keep leaning towards, that makes the most sense, is Dallas.
It's been 4 years since the Cowboys have won in DC, but they are coming off a bye and have been almost perfect over the last decade in those spots.
The Redskins look to make it a junkyard grid-iron brawl and force the Cowboys to play a scrappy game like them, while the Cowboys will attempt to regain their quick assault attack back. Which side will ruin the others goals?
The Redskins have had the power running game continuously move the chains and control the clock. That successful running game has in turn made Jason Campbell have a much easier time of it. Portis has arguably been the NFL's MVP through the first 9 games of the season. Him being out is a big deal. Their system is good, but I'm not convinced that Ledell Betts can just step in and run the system as effectively as Portis has.
The Cowboys just experienced life without their top player and struggled. Tony Romo is back now and his energy and confidence will be the difference. It's do or die time for Dallas and Romo is the one player who makes it happen there. Everyone is better when he's on the field, not just Terrell Owens and Jason Witten, but Marion Barber who see's one of two less players cheating the line because of Romo. This will also be the first week where Roy Williams gets to see some balls thrown down field to him and make contributions.
Basically its case of two all-pro players swinging the pendulum in how I believe this game turns out. It's almost like a playoff game for the Cowboys, which doesn't bode well for Romo on paper, However, it is a great start to redemption in a position where they don't have the pressure of being favorites anymore. I think he'll perform better in that role as a chaser rather than being the chased.
He’s hanging around and now he’s being rewarded for all his consistent efforts this season being put in a nice spot of 13th, tied with Clint Bowyer. Both drivers are only 26 points behind the struggling Denny Hamlin. Bowyer and Ragan better not count on Hamlin doing poorly at two of the three tracks in the Chase, such as Bristol and Richmond, because he’s better than most at those two facilities.
The driver that is taking a real dive that Ragan may be able to key on for the next 3 races is Jeff Gordon. With that 42nd place finish last week in Michigan, Gordon fell 3 spots from 6th to 9th. Ragan sits only 82 points away.
Ragan has been terrific at just about every type of track, except the banks of Bristol. His average there during his 3 starts has been a 29th place finish. The way Gordon is going, Ragan still might gain with a 29th.
Doesn’t Gordon own part of Hendrick Motorsports? As owner, why would he race in a car that Casey Mears even thinks is bad? Wouldn’t it serve his team and the entire organization better if Gordon were to transfer a Jimmie Johnson or Dale Jr chassis to the Dupont garage?
I can’t believe we can actually discussing the possibility that Gordon may not make the chase at this juncture after be so consistently good all season. He doesn’t have a win and really hasn’t actually competed for one.
Busch Brothers the Favorites in Bristol?
Kurt and Kyle Busch might have been the favorites this week if Denny Hamlin and Tony Stewart were not racing. Kurt has 5 wins at Bristol with the last coming in the spring of 2006. Lots has changed for the Penske team since, and it’s obvious not a positive change. Kurt is 25 to 1 at Bristol and he’s sure to get some takers who believe in his past.
Kyle won the Spring race last season while driving for Hendrick Motorsports. He’s currently listed at 7 to 1, which is kind of high considering the guy wins just about every race. Last season Jeff Burton was Mr. Nice-Guy with Busch on the last few laps. Burton could have bumped him out of the way on anyone of the last few laps, but Burton chose to be the gentleman driver he is and not win Bristol like most have before him.
I remember thinking that if it was Kyle behind him, Burton had no chance of keeping him off his bumper. He wouldn’t bumped Burton out of the way the first time the opportunity presented itself. Burton was applauded by many for his sportsmanship, but certainly not by me, nor Richard Childress who couldn’t believe what he just saw.
Anyway, I believe at some juncture Kyle Busch is likely to be leading. Yeah, I know, hard to believe, but he will. As the leader, he’ll get plenty of attacks from the sharks who will be nipping his heels. One driver who doesn’t like Busch too much is Harvick. He’s a good candidate to send Kyle spinning. Another might Junior. They have had their run-ins, and if they tangled in Bristol under the lights, with Junior getting the best of it? Wow! That would be some kind of showstopper.
It’s Cheating ONLY when You get Caught
I wasn’t at all surprised when I heard about the Joe Gibbs Nationwide series teams getting busted after a post race inspection at Michigan. Come on now? 14 wins in 25 races? That is embarrassing! The only thing that had me thinking maybe they could be that good playing straight was Joe Gibbs, because he has never taken the short cut to win, or at least that’s the persona he has.
Of course it was someone else in the garage attempting to gain an edge, and had nothing to do with anyone of the hierarchy in the Gibbs organization. But it doesn’t matter, because most teams have done several things to get edges over the competition. Some like to call it cheating, while I like to call it creative engineering. If you get caught, then, I guess it’s cheating.
The question with all of this that begs to be asked is if this creative engineer at JGR has anything to do with the huge gains the Cup series cars have made? Kyle Busch is leading the way with 8 wins and the team has a total of 9 wins. What have they done to be so much better than everyone else in their first year driving a Toyota? If it could happen with the Nationwide team, it could happen in the Cup series.
I don’t really care one way of another. Finding an edge has always been part of the sport and its that unwritten rule and lawlessness of NASCAR, beginning with its moonshine roots, that make it a very cool sport. The sportswriters around the country like to cry foul and think they are going to get an outcry from fans like they did when they tried to tell every baseball fan that steroids in baseball should make you feel angry. Not gonna happen here!
So Who's it Gonna be this week?
I'm thinking I gotta go with Stewart and it all stems from the March race where Stewart likely had the best car that day while leading the most laps. It's usually a much different story in the night race because the fans are all juiced up, the nation watching in prime time is fired up, and the drivers feel that pressure and feel they have to put on a good show. However, history does show that Bristol winners usually are the elete drivers in the series and most of the time former Cup Champions.
The one rediculous exception was when Elliott Sadler won for the Woods Brothers on those tires that never had to be changed. I think he could have raced the following week in those tires without changing as well. Goodyear used a compound for that Bristol race that was the same as what they make those little mini-rubber spare tires most of us have in the truck.
Anyways, In that March race all 3 Childress cars finished in the top 3 with Jeff Burton winning. That race went into 6 laps of overtime which essentially cost the race for Denny Hamlin. Unfortunately for Hamlin, Burton had much fresher tires and took him on the re-start where Hamlin was a sitting duck. The main fireworks occurred when Kevin Harvick, who finished 2nd, punted Tony Stewart, who was in 2nd, with two laps to go and caused the caution, which ultimately caused Hamlin to lose.
In that race, the Gibbs tandem of Stewart and Hamlin led 365 of the 506 laps run. Jeff Burton led just two laps and it was the only time he led all day.
Is it possible that we may see the same drivers competing for a win again this week? It’s likely and almost probable, but I wouldn’t expect Stewart to sit and wait to be punted again. I believe Stewart will come up with his first win of the season it will be him doing the punting.
Harvick and Stewart call themselves friends. After they mixed it up in that race, both took the blame. But I think Stewart has a different perspective on it after watching the replay. Because of Harvick’s great career record at Bristol it is likely that he’ll be in a position where Stewart just may be able to extract some revenge.
The road race season begins this week in the NASCAR Sprint Cup series. The season consists of only two races, this week at Sonoma and next month in Watkins Glen. However, those two races are a huge change of pace and a welcome sight after watching a few of the same drivers winning every week in races that require similar set ups.
I am definitely in the minority being someone who actually likes the road courses, or at least I was. Many long time NASCAR fans despise the road courses citing that the roads and right turns take away the spirit and very embodiment that makes NASCAR different from the other motor sports. I can understand that point of view, but intruding on one-eighteenth of the season schedule with some diversity shouldn’t make too many grumble, should it?
Other than seeing a track layout completely different than what we normally see, my favorite reason for enjoying the road courses is to watch some of the Cup regulars struggle. I’m not a negative person and don’t take delight in others misery, but watching some of the best drivers in the world struggle at their craft is somewhat entertaining. Watching a road course specialist take over a car from a lowly financed team and finish better than the corporate mega-racing teams, now that is fun to watch!
What other races do we have on the circuit where David has a chance to slay Goliath? Every once in a while a few decades ago there used to be a place for the low budget cars where we would see an occasional win. Then, almost like what Wal-Mart has done to the Ma and Pa stores in America, The multi-car teams wiped out the little man and their chances to do well in races.
I’m attempting to get you all somehow excited for this race because many don’t like it. This race is all about the driver and less about the car, a ratio that is not comparable to on any other track. Most the time the driver just mashes the pedal and lets the corporate multi-tested horsepower do the work for them. Carl Edwards, Kyle Busch, and Kasey Kahne are fine drivers, buts it’s less about them than it is having such a great research staff, crew and car.
Now, I’ve given you the possibilities and what I believe, or want to believe, but here are the facts. Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart win just about every road course race. They have taken all their high financed equipment and parlayed that with their exceptional road racing skills to dominate everyone. We have seen a few drivers step up like Juan Pablo Montoya last year at Sonoma and Kevin Harvick the year before at Watkins Glen, and even Robby Gordon has won a couple during the Gordon/Stewart reign, but that’s about it of late.
So I guess I’ll detract some things I mentioned and clarify by saying there are more possibilities on a road course for someone else to contend. Whether its been fuel mileage or sequence of pitting, there are several instances of lower tiered drivers, or some of the hired assassins, being in contention for a win while beating several of the top name drivers in NASCAR. I love that part of it, simply for the reason of pure possibilities. Road course events in NASCAR are definitely a pleasant change.
Enough rambling, who is going to win? It used to be Jeff Gordon would be the short favorite followed by Tony Stewart and then a bunch of other long shot drivers just because they won all the time. This season there are about seven drivers that have a good shot of winning without having to win by just luck of the pit strategy.
Scott Pruett from Ganassi Racing is the only non-Cup regular who is considered a legitimate candidate to win. Ron Fellows and Boris Said are on the next tier of drivers capable, but Pruett's car gives him the slight edge over the other two quality hired guns. He’ll have good equipment and he’ll also have an edge over most in driving skills, not to mention the track also his considered his home track.
Jeff Gordon still leads the way a co-favorite with 9 career road course Cup wins. Stewart is the other favorite with 6 career road course Cup wins, and having done so more recently than Gordon with a win at Watkins Glen last season. The two have mixed it several times on the roads and on one occasion, Stewart took his shot at punching the road course bully in the mouth. One road race early in Stewart’s career, he raced Gordon hard after only a couple laps and then punted him while battling for position on a straightaway. It was strong message sent and led to a changing of the guard. Gordon had won 7 road races up that point and has only 2 more road wins since. Stewart has literally taken the road course crown and title belt away from Gordon.
Robby Gordon led the most last season in this race and finished 16th after all the late pit strategies. In 2003, Gordon swept the road course races while driving for Richard Childress. The difference over the last couple of years for Gordon and why he hasn’t been able to win since then has been equipment. He is one of the most talented drivers, and because of that, regardless of how terrible the team he owns and drives for is, he is a strong contender. In every race this season Gordon been a huge underdog given little chance to win. For this race, he is a top contender and respected very much. That is the ultimate compliment to his skills that he can so dramatically change perception of his driving ability simply by the course. he is the perfect example o####uy that give hope to the possibilities and just how possible it is for someone in a jalopy to do well.
Juan Pablo Montoya qualified very poorly last season at Sonoma which put him at a huge disadvantage from the start. Once practice started, Montoya unleashed his fury and showcased his skills by running the fastest lap in the final two practice sessions. He still had to come from the back and the furthest anyone had ever come back from to win at Sonoma was 13th. In 15 of the previous 16 Sonoma races, the worst start position was 7th. Montoya was starting 32nd. Impossible! Obviously not for JP who went the last 40 green flag laps conserving fuel throughout and won a smart race.
Hard to go against 24 and 20, but I'll go with with Pruett and Montoya to finish 1-2. And no, I don't think Montoya will feel any remorse for what he did in the Busch race at Mexico City last season. JP would do the same thing again if the opportunity presented itself. I just think Pruett will be smarter and not let him get that close again.
Side Note: An interesting note regarding this weeks race being held in Sonoma is that 7 current Cup drivers hail from California. That is more than any other state, including great race driver producing states of North Carolina and Virginia, which is definitely a sign that NASCAR has come a long way.
Dale Jr on Fathers Day….Very Cool! The Michigan race last week was one of the better races I’ve seen in a while just because of the tension filled drama late in the race. How Dale Jr was able to last that many laps with the amount of fuel they had is a mystery.
Naturally, me wanting to put more fiction into the scene and read more into it couldn’t help but think about other times I thought some paranormal activity was going on. Was it possible someone was looking after Dale Jr in some way during that Pepsi 400 at Daytona, the first race there after Dale Sr passed away there? Was it possible someone was looking after Junior getting out of his harness straps in the burning corvette during a sports car race he participated in?
I don’t know the answer. It’s fun to speculate, but a 76 race winless streak was a huge #### on his back that has been lifted. Don’t know how it happened, but it did and it’s good for the sport.
This Weekends NASCAR Sprint Cup series race takes the cars back to their birth place, or at least in theory. Michigan is the heart of the American automobile and where all the power of NASCAR derives from. Last season there were lots of grumbles from the suits at General Motors, Ford, and Dodge when Toyota joined the series. For years, these automobile executives have used the Michigan NASCAR races as a show of strength, sort of a Super Bowl for automobiles.
The performance of the Toyotas in both Michigan races were not awful, but it was terrible enough to have the suits snicker and gloat about how much muscle their American cars had over the foreigners. However, the funny thing is that the Toyota Camry on sale to the public is actually more American than the 3 competitors on the circuit. The Ford Fusion is assembled in Mexico, The Chevy Impala and Dodge Charger are both put together in Canada, with only the Dodge Avenger actually being put together in the good old USA. The Toyota Camry is made in Georgetown, Kentucky, a place that is about American as it gets.
Coming into this years race, the Toyota’s are a bit more confident considering their horses under the hood have powered the current Sprint Cup series point leader, Kyle Busch, to a series leading 4 wins. Ford and Dodge have dominated over the years at Michigan combining to win the last 13 races in a row. Chevrolet has been a no show, claiming only two Jeff Gordon wins since 1996, as their only opportunity to boast with the bow-tie among their colleagues.
It’ll really be interesting to watch the cringes from the upper brass in the luxury boxes above Michigan Speedway as Toyota makes a serious run for the win while crashing the big motor party. The Joe Gibbs trio of Busch, Tony Stewart, and Denny Hamlin will all be top contenders to win the race with an outside chance given to another Toyota driven by Red Bull Racing’s Brian Vickers.
The favorite for this weeks race is Carl Edwards’ Ford. Based on his performance at Michigan’s sister track in California and his two other wins on 1.5 mile tracks, he will be tough for anyone to challenge.
I'm still seeing instances of teams not being comfortable in their Car of Tomorrow on tracks that the car didn’t run on last season. There are only a few drivers that have shown consistency on all those tracks that are seeing the COT for the first time. Edwards and Busch lead the way as those having a huge edge over the others.
Two of the drivers that did very well in California back in February, yet have fallen off dramatically from their usual consistent dominance are Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson. They finished 2nd and 3rd at California, but have had some days since that look more reminiscent of a Petty team than Hendrick. They admittedly say they didn’t spend as much time and research for the COT on these type of tracks as they did last season when they feverishly prepared for the COT’s first run on the smaller tracks and it truly shows.
I already stated how big of a slump Chevy has been in at Michigan. The slump actually started one race before Johnson started his Cup career. In 12 races there, Johnson only has two top 5 finishes with a best of third coming in the fall race last season. Perhaps the change in car will be a benefit this season, but going winless in the 12 previous races is puzzling because of how similar California and Michigan are and also how dominant Johnson has been at California since winning there as a rookie.
Let’s stay with the trend of a Chevy not winning this week. The due theory is very overrated and if it was played consistently at Michigan and you were a betting man, your bankroll would have evaporated long ago when Bill Elliott took his Ford to the winners circle 6 of 8 races in the mid-eighties.
I really like the concept of seeing Toyota not only winning to the dismay of the American Auto Giants, but maybe even finishing 1-2. Tony Stewart impressed at Charlotte and finished 7th at California. Kyle Busch has been good everywhere, but just for fun we’ll mention his 4th place finish at California.
Happy Fathers Day
Finally, I'd like to wish all the Fathers a Happy Fathers day out there, including my own. It’s ironic once again that the Michigan race in the motor city happens to be on Fathers day because working on American muscle cars of the 60’s and 70’s was something that my father and I did often together.
He’d buy a wrecked GTO, bring it to the garage and go to work on it rebuilding the engine, transmission, body work, paint, and then regrettably for me, end up selling it for a profit. I loved those cars and hated to see them go, but looking back, I love those memories with my father spending countless hours in the garage night after night. He let me help at my leisure, never demanding help, and slowly in time, what looked like work became the most fun thing in my life.
It gave me a love for those muscle cars and in general an appreciation for anyone who could go faster than some one else in any type of motor racing.
It’s been a while, but every once in a while I get the urge to go the junkyard and pick out a mangled 68’ Camaro and drop it off at his garage and say, “Dad, let’s go to have some fun”.
