Crown Royal 400 @ Richmond – May 3, 2008 This Saturday night in the Capital of the Confederacy, a nationally televised audience will get to witness one of NASCAR’s wildest crowds on the circuit. Richmond’s three-quarter mile track will serve as the stage for what will turn out to be the best action adventure on Saturday night’s TV lineup. Because the track is relatively short, the drivers get to play a little bumper cars, which in turn gets a few drivers in hostile moods, which results in the crowd roaring with approval. The whole process really plays out well on TV.

Richmond is listed as a short track because of its dimensions, but it runs nothing like Bristol or Martinsville. Taking a cue from the crew chiefs, the best way to figure out who will do well this week is look at recent results from Phoenix and New Hampshire. The three tracks look nothing alike but the correlation between the three is very strong. If a team has success on one of them, chances are they’ll be good on the other two.

Each of the top running teams from Phoenix will likely bring the exact same chassis to Richmond. Jimmie Johnson won at Phoenix a few weeks ago for his first victory of the season. When including last seasons results from the 6 races at Phoenix, New Hampshire, and Richmond, you’ll see that Johnson has 3 more wins from that group and a worst finish of 6th. Johnson swept the Richmond races last season.

Johnson has shown some vulnerability this year, but only on the larger tracks, or rather, the tracks that didn’t run the Car of Tomorrow last season. The team has admitted that they are behind the likes of Joe Gibbs and Jack Roush in that area. The area that the Hendrick cars are still tops in the business is the flat mid-range tracks of Phoenix, New Hampshire, and Richmond. Those cars they dominated with last season are still in tact, better than everyone else, and are ready to roll again this week.          

Jeff Gordon finished 4th in both races last season and had a win at Phoenix. At New Hampshire, Gordon finished 2nd twice. His worst finish in the six races was a 10th at Phoenix. This year at Phoenix, Gordon finished 13th. Gordon has always had a tough time in Richmond. In 30 career starts he only has 16 top 10 finishes and has only won twice. The lack of success at Richmond, like the success he’s enjoyed at just about every other track, is much to the delight of the Richmond Rowdies. For some reason they like to see Gordon have a bad night of racing.

Since we’re discussing Richmond, Virginia we should mention a few Virginians that have a shot at winning this week. Denny Hamlin and Jeff Burton are great candidates to win. Elliott Sadler is also from Virginia, but he doesn’t have much chance. Hamlin comes in with his Gibbs Toyota and has the third best COT average on the 6 tracks combined, behind Gordon and Johnson. At Phoenix this season, Hamlin finished a strong 3rd. Hamlin stands out this week because of his desire to win on his state's soil. Last season he tried so hard to win and bring something positive to all Virginians after the horrific shootings on the campus of Virginia Tech. At both Martinsville and Richmond last season Hamlin finished 3rd and 6th in the four races. This season he has already crossed off Martinsville with a win there last month. This week, look for him to cross off Richmond as well.

Jeff Burton is a candidate to do well because of how well the Childress organization has collectively run on the flat mid-range tracks. They were already great with Kevin Harvick on these tracks before the COT. In 2006 Harvick won 4 of the 6 races run at Phoenix, New Hampshire, and Richmond. The COT program started a little slow last season but they were respectable until Clint Bowyer took the big win at New Hampshire. In their first crack at it this season in Phoenix, two of the Childress drivers finished in the top 6 with Bowyer taking 2nd and Burton 6th.

Burton currently leads in points, but you can forget about him points racing. He hasn’t won in his home state since 1998, which is his one and only Richmond win. He knows he’ll have the car this week capable of winning and he wants it almost as bad as Hamlin does for the same reasons.

The Wild Card for the Richmond race is Kyle Busch. He was instrumental in the Hendrick progression to their current dominance at Richmond. In both the old car and the COT, no one has been consistently better than Busch at Richmond. In 6 Richmond starts, he’s finished in the top 5 five times, including 2nd to Johnson in this race last year. On these flat tracks that we have bunched together as a group, Busch has been strong. He didn’t get a win on any of them last season because his teammates pigged most of them, but in 2006 he won at New Hampshire and in 2005 he won at Phoenix as a rookie. Could Richmond be next?

Carl Edwards brings Ford’s best shot at winning this week. He was 4th in Phoenix and will surely contend with all the top teams. Edwards teammate, Matt Kenseth, is someone that could use a good finish. Kenseth has done rather well at these tracks over his career posting wins at both Phoenix and Richmond. Last season, Kenseth had the best COT program among the Ford’s on these tracks. His first shot this year at Phoenix ended with a poor run due to an accident.

Mark Martin and Martin Truex Jr both had great runs at Phoenix which will have them fare well this week. Martin was 5th and Truex Jr was 8th. Like the Childress group, DEI got a late start of the COT, but as the season went on they were very competitive. Truex Jr finished 3rd and 5th in the two New Hampshire races and 7th in the fall Phoenix race. The No. 8 car that Dale Earnhardt Jr used to drive won three times in Richmond. The duo may not have enough to run with Hendrick or Gibbs this week, but they should have a solid finish.

Over the last few years of reviewing all the races and narrowing down the list of candidates to win, Richmond, Phoenix, and New Hampshire have been by far the easiest races for myself to consistantly calculate. The trends going into each race just hold up so well and so perfect. Very rarely does something happen that wasn’t told or given mention to by looking at the stats and past races. Once in a while something crazy happens like Jeremy Mayfield winning at Richmond in 2004, but for the most part, these races hold pretty true. 

 

 

I'll go with the 11 to win, the 07 to place, and the 48 to show.