Fireball's Blog
by: FireballR
Stewart and Busch Bros to roll In Talladega
Apr 21, 2008 | 12:15PM | report this

After being spoiled week after week with solid NASCAR Sprint Cup racing, the series took the week off much to the dismay of the rabid NASCAR nation. However, most fans will attest that they would certainly give a week away and wait two weeks in order to receive a gift wrapped order of Talladega Superspeedway racing.

This track is an absolute monster; it’s the biggest, meanest, most intimidating track on the planet. Because of that danger, the race takes on a completely different realm for fans, drivers, and teams alike that is equaled by no other racing facility. By simply defying physics, the laws of gravity, and knowing what the drastic consequences could be if just the slightest mistake in the draft is made makes Talladega the single most edge of your seat track for Fans.

Nobody wants to see wrecks, but people like to see others challenge the norm and take it to the limit. Human nature has always been intrigued with those unfazed by risks. The circus thrilled mankind as far back as ancient Rome with their lion tamers and then much later watched in terror as trapeze artist and tightrope walkers defied gravity. In more recent history, Evel Knievil’s daredevil jumps paved the way for pay-per-view as we know it today because people across the world wanted tp pay just to hold their breath and see what happens.

Once again on Sunday, Talladega will not disappoint. It will be action packed and guaranteed to keep you entertained and on the edge of your seat. Not so coincidentally, that is the sort of claim and same guarantee that Barnum and Bailey or Ringling Brothers made when they rolled into a town for a show.

All eyes this week will be on the No. 88 car driven by Dale Earnhardt Jr, the overwhelming fan favorite at the track, as he makes his first start at Talladega with Hendrick Motorsports and his 300th career Cup race start. Junior has raced in 16 Cup races at Talladega and has won 5 times times.

During one stretch from 2001-2004, Junior won 5 of 7 Talladega races and in the process set a track record by winning 4 straight. The feeling with most in the garages is that Junior is now ready to get back to that 2001-2004 level since he is now driving for the team that has the most recent success in restrictor plate races.

From 2001-2004, the DEI duo of Michael Waltrip and Junior won 11 restrictor plate races in 16 opportunities at Talladega and Daytona. During DEI’s last true year of dominance in plate races, a new era was evolving for Hendrick Motorsports which was reacquainting themselves with success in plate races. Jeff Gordon took two plate races in 2004 after going winless in 14 straight races. They had much success in the late nineties with 5 plate wins, including two Daytona 500 wins and then somehow it got away from them, or seemingly coincided with Ray Evernham leaving as Gordon’s crew chief and main source of data for the entire Hendrick team.

Whatever the case may be on why some teams have dominated over certain periods may always remain a mystery. Some teams adapted with certain required body templates sooner than others, but most say it’s about who’s the most clever at getting more horsepower to the engine. We say “clever” as another term to what others may call it, “Cheating”. Remember, it ain’t cheatin’ unless you get caught. I certainly believe it is a little of both and also believe it is a part of NASCAR that is, and always will remain, as part of the sport no matter what a raving steroid crazed media believes should deem okay.

As Junior embarks on his 2nd plate race journey with Hendrick, his team will definitely be searching for edge to help break his 70 race winless streak. He’s run well this season and has been rewarded with sitting 3rd place in points. Despite all the early good finishes, Junior wants to win at Talladega, the place his father dominated and won a track record 10 times.

Should Junior win, it would make him the 4th driver in 5 consecutive Talladega races to win in a Hendrick car. Jeff Gordon swept the two Talladega races last season, while in 2006, Brian Vickers and Jimmie Johnson won. Their plate record may not be as impressive as the DEI run, but from 2004-2007, Hendrick cars have won 9 of 16 plate races. The cycle for both DEI and Hendrick is almost similar.

Here we are one plate race into the 2008 season and Hendrick doesn’t claim it. In fact the craziest of occurrences happened in this years Daytona 500…..a Dodge won! Since 2001, only two Ford’s have won in plate races in 29 total events. Ryan Newman’s Dodge won at Daytona making a gap of 24 races between Dodge wins. I think you all get the point, but just to put the cherry on top, the last Dodge to win at Talladega was driven by Dave Marcis in 1976.

Clearly, Chevrolet has dominated the plate races, and most especially at Talladega. With all the statistical history we have placed before you, it may come as a surprise that the favorite to win this week drive Toyota’s. Even though neither Tony Stewart nor Kyle Busch won the Daytona 500, they dominated and were clearly the two best cars on the track with the slight edge given to Busch who not only had a horsepower edge, but also came up with the best handling car on the track, a combination hard to beat when both areas are clicking at the same time.

Tony Stewart has the distinction of tying an all-time NASCAR record while racing at Talladega. Stewart has finished 2nd at Talladega 6 times without winning. That ties him with Alabaman Bobby Allison at Martinsville and Mark Martin at Pocono. Talladega remains one of four current Cup tracks that Stewart has never won on. He’s gone winless in 18 starts at Talladega which 3 more than Darlington, 4 more than California, and 8 more than Las Vegas.

I'm going to look for Stewart to take his proven solid strategy of getting near the front at the end of the race, and look for him to take his new Toyota to the winners circle for the first time. It would be a first for Stewart on the season, in his new car, and ever at Talladega. It would also allow him to join his two Gibbs teammates, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin, as winners on the season.

The majority of Stewart’s wins come in the later junction of the season, but this may be a race Stewart would like to take care of after so many close calls. It is also likely the “Bridesmaid” title doesn’t suit Stewart too well.

The driver I think we should also look at is Kurt Busch. He pushed himself to a 2nd place finish in the Daytona 500 while propelling his teammate to the win. He hasn’t come close to that kind of run since and will be looking forward to getting the teams’ plate program out there again. In the last 10 years of racing at Talladega, no one has a better average finish than Kurt Busch with a 10.0 average in 14 starts. He has almost as many 3rd place finishes, four, as Stewart has 2nd's. In Busch’s last 7 starts there, he hasn’t finished worse than 8th which says a lot considering how volatile the track is and also that he never drove a Chevy in any of those starts.

I'll go with a 1-2-3 of No. 20, No. 2, and No. 18 

9 Comments | Add a comment   categories: NASCAR, Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, Tony Stewart, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson
 
« Continue reading Fireball's Blog
total comments: 9      Page 1 of 1     
HotfootLori
Apr 21, 2008
1:03 PM
Excellent synopsis. I've been going to Dega for decades and I'm so ready to see Smoke in the winners circle I can't stand it!!

As long as it isn't a 24-48-88 finish, all will be well here in Alabama. :)

Hanahan
Apr 21, 2008
4:06 PM
Fireball....you are my new favorite NASCAR blogger. Way to lay it out, dude. A blogger who knows how to write. You are in rare air around here.

I almost thought you were going off into the Kingdom of Jr, but it was just part of the overall story. Nice to read something fair and balanced. I can live with your top three finishers, also.

noahspop2001
Apr 22, 2008
12:26 AM
I am going to pass the cindarela hat to Michael Waltrip. He will be the winner. Gibbs gave him a motor..LOL..Kyle Busch will be second...Just my thoughts...

napagirl
Apr 22, 2008
7:51 AM
I don't know about Kyle Busch finishing 2nd to Michael Waltrip but I'd love to see it. I just think it would be way too tempting for him to slam draft the 55 (or anyone else for that matter) out of the way for the win. I hope it is either Michael or David Reutimann, those guys need something to make their sponsors smile and Talladega is the perfect place to make it happen. UPS already has a great qualifier in David and shouldn't give up on him so soon. Go #44 & #55!!!

klvalus
Apr 22, 2008
8:15 AM
Fireball - Well written blog and a pleasure to read...good stuff, although Dega left a lot to be desired last year when they went there with the COT, lets hope they get back to racin' on Sunday.

I like all your picks, course I am the local #88 and #2 fan so I am biased!

bluovl
Apr 22, 2008
9:11 AM
I thought you were going the Jr route also until the end. Good job. A few more stats to throw in though, just to give the whole picture. You talk about Chevy's dominance in recent years but look at the stats pre-plate era when it was open competition.
GM-15 wins
Ford/Merc-16 wins
Chrysler-6 wins
Chevrolet-4 wins If you don't add the other GMs
Stats can be what you want them to be. What would it be if they could run without the plate. This tells me that GM has been given a huge advantage since 1987 with the plate. Just another point of view.
And don't forget Dega has produced more one time winners who never won again than any other track. You also have to wonder if the "ghosts" of Dega will rear their ugly heads and strike again. Remember the track is on the site of an old Indian burial ground, many believe it is haunted by their ghosts. Makes it even more interesting to see who will survive the big one or the curse of the Indians.
Maybe we would have even better racing without the plate as the stats before 87 show much better competition between manufacturers. I know- safety. But their are other ways to slow a car than a plate that would allow for better competition and even more exciting racing for the fans. You can also improve the track to handle the speed.JMO

Last edited by bluovl on April 22nd at 9:16 AM.

I_HATE_48
Apr 22, 2008
11:34 AM
Amen, Hottfoot.......I'm sick of that Hendrick BS at Talladega. Anyone but Gordo or Uni-brow.

DoYouNascar
Apr 22, 2008
7:38 PM
I've never really understood all the hype that goes into Talladega. It's really kind of a boring race until you get down to the final 10 laps.

As for a winner, expect to see Smoke scale the fences for the first time in 2008!

Tim Z
www.doyounascar.com

bluovl
Apr 23, 2008
5:30 AM
I agree with you DoYouNascar, I don't understand people thinking any plate race is really that good. Follow the leader until the last 10 and then try to survive the wrecks. I think it was MUCH better racing with no plates. Nascar needs to do something as drivers and crew chiefs have suggested for years other than the plate.

Page 1 of 1     
Add a comment  
ABOUT ME


FireballR
Fan of Tomorrow
Time stamping is done in Pacific Time.