Well the Champions League returns on Tuesday and with that, the knock-out stage commences. There are a lot of wonderful ties to watch and there are only a few that you could look at and feel confident about a winner. Here is what I think will occur in this round.
v FC Schalke 04 v FC Porto
On paper and in person, these two are extremely evenly matched. Neither side is incredibly strong, nor are they incredibly weak. Schalke have been inconsistent in the German league this season, but having reached this far is a great accomplishment for them. While they lost at home on Friday, the fact that they'll have four days to rest for this match will be good but it doesn't give them the edge as Porto will have also been rested since Friday. Porto are running away with the Portuguese league and they could start to shift their focus in the hopes of reaching further in this competition. The question here is which team is actually stronger? Yes, Porto do lead their league, but is it in the same quality as Germany? The answer is no. Does that make Schalke a the stronger of the two because they play in a tougher league? Probably not, so again you're left looking at this match as an even contest. I like Schalke in the first leg because they're at home and the crowd will be with them. I expect a close first-half contest, with neither side putting up too many chances, but Schalke will open up in the 2nd half and score a goal. If Porto go down a goal, you'll see them move into the attack and try to grab an away goal. If they decide to play too defensive, then their only chance of scoring will be on the odd-counter attack.
Prediction: Schalke 04 v FC Porto = 2:1
v Liverpool v Inter Milan
With no FA Cup, No Carling Cup and the Premiership out of the question, there is only one trophy the Reds can win this season and the only thing that will save Rafa Benitez from being fired. They face the Italian leaders Inter Milan who have been on-fire this season both in Serie A and in the Champions League. It would be clear that Inter are the favorites in this tie, but in recent years, they have fallen and disappointed their fans in the knock-out stages. With this first match being played at The Anfield, you really have to put the edge at least in this match to Liverpool. Chances are they will play a 4-4-2 but with a midfield that will probably shift more towards aiding the defense rather than setting up the strikers. This match has draw written all over it, but the question will be does it end 0:0 or 1:1. As long as Liverpool do not give up an early goal or do not go behind in the first half, I expect them to stay with a draw. If they do manage to score first, then they could get one more, but I do not expect them to take any risks against Inter and rely on getting an away goal in the return leg.
Prediction: Liverpool v Inter Milan = 1:1
v AS Roma v Real Madrid CF
I am not a fan of either side but this is a really interesting match-up. Real should retain their La Liga title while Roma are trying to fight-off Juventus, Fiorentina and AC Milan for 2nd place in Italy. Roma suffered a 1:0 away loss to Juventus on Saturday but will be glad to have this match at home on Tuesday. Real Madrid also lost on over the weekend on the road after taking an early lead. On paper Real are the better side top-to-bottom but you can expect them to play for the draw here. They have had success against Roma in the past and this might put pressure on the club from the Italian capital to play extremely defensive at home, rather than trying to take their chances. I expect Real Madrid to go for at least one goal and will not worry too much about taking risks up front. Roma might see this and react by shifting to a 5 in the back and play for that boring 0:0 draw. I want a goal in this match, and I expect it will come from the club in white.
Prediction: AS Roma v Real Madrid = 1:2
v Olympiakos v Chelsea
This is the match where everyone is stating, 'so who is Chelsea facing next?'. Olympiakos are the surprise team of the 16 left in the competition and they face an extremely tough side with Chelsea. Chelsea want to play in Moscow in May more than any club in this competition. They've reached the semis 3 times in the last 4 seasons missing out on the big match. Since the premiership title might be out of reach, they can focus their players on this match and I believe they will go at Olympiakos at full force. The problem with the Greek side is that they lack the experience in the later stages of this competiiton and their players are pretty old in comparison to the youth that fills the Chelsea squad. I expect Olympiakos to fight hard, but their lack of skill will only net them at best a scoreless draw.
Prediction: Olympiakos v Chelsea = 0:2
v Celtic v Barcelona
Yes, Barcelona have no performed as well as they should have this season. They have some of the best goal-scorers in the world with Messi, Henry, Ronaldinho and Eto'o not to mention the young spark-plug that is Spanish-Serb Bojan Krkic; but due to some inconsistencies they have no played to their full potential. Celtic will probably look at this match and feel that they can cause some problems for the Barcelona side. I expect that Celtic will take their chances at home and try their hardest to score at least one goal because of their poor form outside of Scotland. Barcelona will hope that Celtic, with their risk-taking go too far and gift them a goal. I expect goals in this match from both sides and it will be the return leg that really decides the winner.
Prediction: Celtic v Barcelona = 2:2
v Lyon v Manchester United
At the beginning of this season, Lyon looked shaky at best. They didn't have their first choice keeper (Coupet) between the sticks and they were having a hard time against opposition that should be easy 3 points. It also looked pretty bad for them when they lost their first two group stage matches, but they turned around won the matches they need to and now must feel extremely confident hosting Manchester United. Manchester had a mixed first part of their League season, but were incredible in the Champions League, although in a relatively weak group that they locked up pretty early. They will try to build on the 4:0 win over Arsenal on the weekend but this will be a very different opponent. I expect a tight contest, but I wouldn't be surprised if Manchester leave with a victory. Over the past few years, I have been a huge supporter of seeing Lyon going far in Europe but they always disapointed. I expect this year they will continue to disappoint. They'll put up a fight, but it will be a 2nd half mistake that will put them behind the 8-ball going to Manchester.
Prediction : Lyon v Manchester Utd. = 1:2
v Fenerbahce v Sevilla
Chances are if you're asked about Turkish club football, you'll respond by mentioning Galatasaray. While that's nice, they are actually not the most successful club from the country, but that Fenerbahce is. This will be the Turkish club's best chance at impressing people in Europe. They have a very diverse squad of younger Turkish players and experienced International talent. Sevilla will be favored in the grand scheme of this series, but their first match in Istanbul will be tough and something they have not experienced in either their previous UEFA Cup success or this season in the group stage. I really like Fenerbahce in the first leg; it won't be a comfortable win, but they'll squeeze out the result they need and head to Spain feeling as though they can advance to the Quarter-finals. Sevilla should not play too defensive but I am certain they will not take their chances.
Prediction: Fenerbahce v Sevilla = 1:0
v Arsenal v AC Milan
Milan looked like they were dead in the water as they couldn't win a league match at home, they were closer to relegation than to the title and nothing was going right. Then entered some young players and the entire team got a massive boost. The fountain of youth has been pretty good as of late and AC Milan are knocking on the door of finishing in the top 4 in Italy. Arsenal on the other hand have had success all season long and outside of missing out Cup trophies in England are on pace to win the Premiership for the first time since their undefeated season a few years back. The squad has developed a lot over the years but are still not that successful in knock-out competitions. They have also had some injury problems as of late and that could cause problems for them in what will be a tough contest. When you have two great clubs like this, you'd want them to have a high-scoring contest, but this has draw written all over it.
Prediction: Arsenal v AC Milan = 0:0
My predictions for the first legs of matches doesn't leave much to the imagination. The first leg is usually played with a lot of caution and clubs at home are not willing to take risks while the away squad do not play to take advantage of their defensive opposition. I think for the neutral, the match to watch will be Celtic v Barcelona while the Fenerbahce v Sevilla will definitely interest the true soccer fan. If there are any surprises, they will be in the Lyon v Manchester and any positive result for Olympiakos (meaning not losing) will also surprise a lot.
In my short life, I have gone to about 6 soccer/football matches. Of those, I watched in person: a friendly between Chelsea and AC Milan in Foxboro; a World Cup Qualifying Match in Belgrade between Serbia and Montenegro vs Belgium. The 2005 Champions League final in Istanbul between AC Milan and Liverpool; two Champions League qualifiers involving Red Star Belgrade (against Cork City from Ireland and AC Milan) and finally a Czech League matching involving Slavia Prague against Sigma. As you can tell, a pretty varied amount of games. The best game of the list of course was the Champions League final while the most boring/uneventful one was the World Cup qualifying match between SCG and BEL. The matches with the most atmosphere was the Liverpool v Milan and the Red Star v Milan matches but the one with the least was the Chelsea v Milan match at Foxboro.
I am a big Premier League fan and a strong supporter of Chelsea. I was in London in 2002 but didn't get to watch them (as I went in early July), so I was unable to see a match at Stamford Bridge but I'd like to go one day and watch them regardless of the location (as long as it's in Europe). In my eyes, while the idea of the Premier League having matches outside of England is nice, I don't like the idea since it is essentially a cheap knock-off of the original product. Regardless of the fact that they are bringing regular-season matches that actually have meaning to them, I think the experience will not be the same. In order to enjoy a sport, you need to be enjoy it in the proper atmosphere. To watch a soccer match involving British teams, you have to watch it in a British atmosphere. When I was in Istanbul, while I supported and cheered for AC Milan, I spent my time before the match with the English speaking Liverpool fans and it was incredible. Yes, a good chunk were ####s towards me (when they found out I was a Chelsea supporter and I fan of AC Milan) but it was the best way to watch the match and to discuss the sport.
I feel this way about the Premier League. If given the chance to watch a match in person, I would rather travel to London (again) or Manchester or Birmingham and sit in Stamford Bridge, Old Trafford or Villa Park and absorb the atmosphere with the dedicated fans, singing the songs and cheering like mad when our team scores. The matches that will be played abroad will be over-priced (while Premier League matches are not cheap to begin with) and hard to find. They are going to play them in areas which are not close to me at all (except if they decide to play a match in Vancouver, Seattle, San Fran or Los Angeles) so getting to the match won't be easy. Chances are for the same amount of money, I can catch a charter flight to London for about 500 dollars, pay another 40-50 dollars for match tickets and a couple of hundred for hotel and food and still have a lower total cost.
Unlike the NFL, who really need to branch outside of North America for the product to be international, the Premier League and European Football in general has been extremely popular around the globe. The league doesn't need help in marketing themselves. If the Premier League really wants to get viewers, they should have started lower and moved either the Community Shield or the FA Cup final to a neutral venue. I wrote back in November of 2006 about the possibility of bringing the Champions League final to New York (link) so why not take that idea and use the Community Shield or the FA Cup have them played overseas. In that situation, you are almost ensured that at least one top class club would be involved and considering the magnitude of the match, the over-priced ticket prices would be justified (although, still too high for most people).
The only thing stopping the Premier League from doing their proposed matches is getting approval from the countries that were mentioned. Japan, Australia and The United States have already stated that they'd like to avoid these matches as all three have still young soccer leagues and that this could stun their growths. It is a valid point and also differs greatly from the NFL's European match project. There, they had nothing competing against them and it was an open market, but here, if you bring the Premier League and it succeeds (which it will) then these leagues will suffer. Fans will have been spoiled with the riches of England and will not want to force themselves to settle with the '2nd-rate' soccer they have available.
In my eyes, the best course of action the Premier League should take is the welcome attitude. I would rather see them offer cheap flight, hotel and match options to people who would like to travel to England to watch a footie match. They already have a partnership with Fly Emirates, so they could agree something with them or any other airline carrier to offer discounted prices on selected flights. Not only would this help the airlines with added business, but it would boost the economies of these English cities. Also, have the clubs save a section of decent (not the best but not the worst) tickets for fans from abbroad so they get the chance to watch a live match. London and Manchester probably wouldn't need this, it would help 'smaller' or lesser visited cities like Birmingham, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, or even Portsmouth in boosting their tourism industries. Heck, you could even offer better deals to people who want to watch The Coca Cola Championship. Watch QPR, Southhampton or even a Leeds United match for an even better deal and still get a great deal out of it. This would help the clubs even more so, since fans will want to take a tour of the stadium and would more than likely would not leave without a purchase or two from the club-store, once again, helping the team in more ways than one.
**Please understand that this is just an editorial in no way am I endorsing the actions of those who commit these actions. I am trying to give a fair view of the problem that exists in the sport**
Depending on where your focus is on the wonderful world of soccer/football: you are either slowly preparing for the upcoming seasons after some really wonderful finishes in Europe or you are getting ready to watch more of the tournaments that are in focus in the Americas. If you have heard about the Under 21 tournament, the talk is about the way in which an England player, Nedum Onuoh, was a victim of racist attacks from fans from Serbia. While I do not think what these fans did was right, I just hate that it's only when a Black player that is attacked that we take notice. My view is that while racism in the sport of Soccer/Football exists everywhere: England, Spain, Japan, Serbia, Australia, etc...we only hear about racism when the victim is black and not other forms of prejudice.
For example, in England, there is a lot of racism/prejudism towards Western Asians (those people from Pakistan, India, etc...) There is a lot of hate and ridicule made towards people from those regions, but no one makes any mention of it. British people are probably just as racist as everyone else, but they keep their mouths shut and then turn around when they are the victim(s). Just look at the history of Tottenham Hotspurs. The Spurs are known throughout the world as the Jewish Club along the same lines as Ajax Amsterdam. The Club has a lot of historical connection with the Jewish community in London and both their fans and players are attacked by other supporters because of this. But again, the situation is kept under-wraps and for a lot, it's never heard of.
It continues on, while there haven't been any key players who have 'out'ed themselves in terms of sexual orientation, but you know quite well that if there was a player on any team that came out of the closet, he'd be attacked based on that and chances are by fans and players.
The question still remains: Why is it that only race brings up the issue?
Here in North America, the stadiums are privately owned and fans can be ejected at anytime. A few weeks ago, fans during a China Friendly in the states were removed for having banners that brought up the connection China has with issues in Asia. The stadium removed these fans and that was that. Since the stadium is private property, people do not have the right to protest and can be removed at the digressions of the stadium and the event coordinators.
Why can't they do the same thing in Europe? Because it would create more chaos. UEFA and FIFA still have not found the best way to handle fans during matches to remove them without creating further problems. You bring in regular security, the drunk fans will laugh it off and/or ignore the ushers. Bring the police and a riot will ensue and the threat of more injuries and victims is increased. The only way that the governing bodies can control the situation is to do nothing at that moment then fine the association who these fans come from and hurt future events.
I think the events in Holland with these Serbian supporters should not fall solely on the responsibility of the FSS (Serbian Football Association). It is unfair that they should be the only one punished when these fans may or may not even be citizens of the country of Serbia. At a neutral venue event like this, the organizing committee should also be held responsible as they are the ones who are supposed to ensure the safety of both the players and the fans. You heard about how people were complaining about how Athens handled the UCL Final, it should be the same way here. If the organizers cannot control those people who enter the stadium, then they are failing to do their job correctly. Had this been an event in Serbia, then by all means, fine the FSS for not controlling the home crowds. It's done in Club competitions, so it makes sense to do the same here.
In truth we are all guilty of prejudism at any sporting event. You 'boo' the opposition or yell 'you suck', that is technically a form of assault, regardless of the means and in North America, you can be removed from the stadium if it is deemed to be overly excessive. Those people who call Cristiano Ronaldo a '####' are also doing the exact same thing and should not be allowed to watch matches in the stadium.
I was at an Red Star v AC Milan match last August in Belgrade. It was an important Champions League Qualifying match between the two and during warm-ups and throughout the match Red Star fans (including myself) were constantly whistling and shouting at Milan's keeper Dida. Why did we do this? To rattle him up. You want the opposition's keeper to slip up so that your team scores. Dida is a great player, and if he's not playing against our team, chances are these same players are cheering him on. Serbs love the country of Brazil and their national team. In fact, Red Star's Stadium is nick-named 'Marakana' as an Homage to the same stadium in Brazil. But is whistling and shouting considered racism because he's dark-skinned, no, but some might view it that way. It is technically verbal assault and should not be allowed, but it is tolerated. It wouldn't really matter what color he was, we want our team to win and we try our best to rattle the player enough so that they might actually screw up. If that was Oliver Kahn and it was Bayern Munich, you'd still see these fans screaming and shouting with the same objective.
Look at what the Gremio fans did in the hopes of helping their team win the Copa Libertadories. They tried to affect Boca player's sleep so that they'd be too tired to play the next day. While it's not racism, it still a tactic, and as you saw, it didn't work.
The best players take the insults and use it to their advantage. Onuoh and all players from all walks of life (Black, White, ####, Straight, Muslim, Jew, etc...) needs to learn to take the abuse and then transform it into a goal/incredible performance. You score a goal and those fans will know that the attacks don't work, and will likely give it up.
In the end, this situation will never change. While soccer governing bodies will say they will do their hardest to prevent racism in the sport, there will also be insults regardless of color because there are more issues than color: Religion, Beliefs, etc... While fans might stop attacking a person based on color, they'll still attack their beliefs or backgrounds in the hopes of rattling them up. If the players want it to stop, they need to learn to ignore it and let their work on the pitch answer the insults...just like in a classic Simpson's Episode: 'Just don't look' and they'll go away.
When I bet against AC Milan they bite me in the butt and when I cheer for them, they do the same (but in the opposite direction). I had predicted a low-scoring affair and while 2:1 is still a low-score it definitely was not as memorable of a match as most would have liked. Liverpool played well but did not take their chances. AC Milan did not play that well, but did make the most of their oppertunities and that is why they leave Athens with yet another trophy for their collection.
I think the match at half-time was still anyone's match and while AC Milan did exactly what any team would do after scoring a 2nd late goal, they slowed the game down. It got interesting when Kuyt scored his header in the 89th, but once you heard 3 minutes of extra time, you knew it would only result in one real opportunity for the Reds and they failed to take advantage. Yes, Liverpool fans can complain that the ref only allowed 2 and a half minutes of injury time, but when you had the opportunity to win score in the first 90 minutes, you couldn't and thus the result is the result.
I am still in the same boat as a lot of people; while AC Milan are my favorite club from Italy, I still think they should have have been allowed in this tournament after their involvement in the Serie A scandal. Mind you, the whole scandal became a farce after appeal after appeal turned large penalties into minor infractions, but that is not the point of this blog.
AC Milan have solidified themselves as the most dominatant club in Europe. In the past 25 years, they have more success than any other club in Europe and they should be proud of it. While Real Madrid have won more titles, most of them were during the minow years of the Champions Cup when it wasn't that largely contested and in recent years have not been as visible as AC Milan have been.
Will AC Milan be able to repeat as champions, history proves otherwise as it is increasing difficult for the champ to stay on top; with the quality of football improving everywhere in Europe, you'll be hard pressed to say that AC Milan are the team to beat, but at the same time, they will definitely be the team to watch out for, and in most cases, to avoid.
It started in early August with the qualifications and now it ends in May with the final in Athens. Outside of fans from the two clubs, most people are not too interested with this match. You have people who still feel that AC Milan should have never been given the rights to compete in this competition considering the debacle that has occurred in Italy; on the other side you have a Liverpool club that did not compete in their league and has played only for this tournament.
I have mentioned in the past that I was at the first match between these two in Istanbul and while that match was incredible, this match probably won't be that great since both clubs will be going into this match with a lot of caution.
I worry that AC Milan with their questionable front could have a hard time against a Liverpool side that are extremely fresh. Yes, Milan have avoided playing their top players recently, their recent loses isn't a good morale boost. While Kaka is absolutely incredible, he can't do it all on his own and will need a lot of support from his teammates. What worries me for Milan continues with what they plan on doing in terms of their formation. Milan are not known recently to play the traditional 4-4-2 variations so you can probably expect something along the lines of a 4-5-1 with Inzaghi playing the lone striker with Kaka playing right behind him and either a 2-2-1 midfield or a 1-3-1...these are odds formations 4-2-2-1-1 and 4-1-3-1-1 are not commonly used by most clubs, but Milan could do that. I think the key for Milan to win will be to have support outside of Kaka; this will result in Pirlo and Gattuso to take control of the ball to allow Kaka and Inzaghi (or whoever is playing upfront) to get into space.
The problem there is that you know for certain that Liverpool will deploy a 4-4-2 formation and will cover all the angles on the pitch. Unlike in 2005 where you have Sheva and Crespo upfront causing problems they won't be able to do it with a sole striker and relying solely on Kaka could blow up in Milan's face.
While I have put a lot of pressure on Milan, it won't be easy for Liverpool either. They will have to rely heavily on all their players to control the ball and to keep it away from the Milan midfielders. If Liverpool control the ball, then they stand a good chance of winning. You can expect the striker duo to be Crouch and Kuyt with Gerrard and Mascherano support in the Midfield with Xabi Alonso probably also taking part. You have to also like Reina in goal for Liverpool, so even if Kaka and his teammates take their chances, Reina should be able to stop them.
In the end, this will be a close game, and will be decided by one goal. If Liverpool control possession, they will score and hold on to the lead. If Liverpool fail to hold Kaka away from the ball, then he will help set-up that goal that will give AC Milan the victory. I've stated in the past that I feel the final score will be 1:0 for Liverpool and I still think that. I'm not going out on a limb for a clear win and while Milan fans will be hoping for a slaughter to fix the demons of 2005, they won't do it, but will still fight until the death and even in a loss will have played well enough.
On a side note: I was shopping on the weekend and noticed that Adidas has released throw-back jerseys of both AC Milan and Liverpool from the late 80s, early 90s. I found that really interesting that Adidas is marketing this match the way there are. While I am not a Liverpool supporter, if you are one, you should probably try to pick up their jersey with the 'Candy' sponsorship because it's a really nice classic jersey that a Liverpool fan should own.
The FA Cup final on Saturday wasn't that interesting but I must say that the finish to La Liga will be incredible. It will be disappointing if the season ends with two team on level points and their head-to-head determining the winner. I've always hated that and wish that tie-breakers did not determine a winner of a league. I wish all leagues would go back to have a one-off neutral finish to determine winner (which I still believe Italy does). It happened earlier this season when PSV won the Dutch League on a goal-difference over Ajax as they both finished with Level points. Just imagine the kind of match the Madrid v Barca Winner-Playoff would be? The match played in Valencia to a sold out crowd with the winner getting the title. It would be a fan's dream match.
I may be a Barca supporter, I still think that because of the head-to-head, Real Madrid will take the trophy at the end of the season. The biggest surprise will be if both Barca and Real slip only to have Sevilla leap-frog both clubs to steal the trophy. That would be absolutely incredible and great for the game, especially to those that feel that European soccer can be too predictable with the richer clubs always winning out. It hurts me that Schalke blew it yet again to finish 2nd in Germany, it is nice that at least Bayern Munich didn't win it this time. Have fun in the UEFA Cup Bayern!
Two Years ago I was in the stands in Istanbul with my AC Milan Shirt and Champions League Final Scarf draped around my neck. I saw from the beginning looked like a rout turn into the greatest final ever played and one that took two days to complete (the matched finished after 00:15 the next day). The 2007 edition, again being played in the EET (Eastern European Time-Zone) with the same two teams. The match is already being talking about in so many ways. Will Milan avenge the mistakes from Istanbul? Will Liverpool solidify themselves as one of the Best European Clubs ever? Will this match be as good as the first one.
In my opinion, I doubt this final will be as good as that since the bar is set so high, but considering the history of both clubs, you can be certain it will be a good final none-the-less.
At this very moment, I like Liverpool to repeat and win this match. Milan are a great side as well but I think that the Liverpool players will want this title more. Milan might be bothered to much by the Re-match Headline and that could pose a problem, but the fact that they have beaten some tough teams to get here (Bayern Munich and Manchester United) helps.
A long time ago I wrote a piece about clubs I support throughout Europe. I will not deny that I am a True Blue fan, a fan even before the Russian Billions were introduced to the team; I have a personalized Chelsea Jersey to show my support. At the same time, if there is a club I have a soft spot, regardless of what they do is Liverpool. I was there in person in Istanbul when I saw the magic of a 3 goal comeback in 9 minutes and since then, I have been glad to watch Liverpool Football whenever possible.
If there is one thing I am disappointed with Liverpool is the lack of effort they put in England and it rarely seems that they want to contend for the EPL crown, rather playing well in knockout competitions and in Europe. A club with the history of Liverpool should be craving an EPL title more than any other other club (with the possible exception of a Newcastle fan).
Today, they were the better side, taking every advantage they had and using it to full capacity. The longer it stayed 1:0, I thought Chelsea would manage to steal a goal and end it, even in Extra time, it seemed that all it would take was one mistake and Chelsea would end any chance for Liverpool, but it was not the case.
The Penalty shootout was almost decided after Robben missed the first shot that was saved by Reina. Chelsea have the talent, but I didn't see the players with all that much heart and the off-field issues of injuries and Jose finally caught up to them. At least Chelsea can say they have been in the Final Four three times in the last four years, but having not reached a final will still be the underlying issue.
While Liverpool will now focus on their trip to Athens in 3 weeks, Chelsea will need to figure out what to do next. Chances are after Saturday, Man Utd will have sealed the trophy in the EPL and Chelsea's hope for a Domestic Trebble will end as well. The FA Cup is still realistic but will the players have the morale to go into with same mentality as before?
Chances are the Chelsea Front-office will try to go out and buy new players in the hopes of building the super-squad, but I hope that they go against that and stick to developing younger talent and growing a team that will be the same for at least two seasons. Arsenal are going through that re-building phase, Manchester just completed their rebuilding and now Chelsea should start from the bottom. As long as they don't follow in the foot-steps of Real Madrid, they should be fine; even Barcelona had to suffer some hard-ships in the early goings before they got to where they are. True Chelsea fans will support the team regardless of what happens next.
As for Liverpool, I will be cheering for them regardless of who they face in Athens. After this result, I wish/hope that Manchester reach the finals because I think it will be a much more interesting final, rather than a repeat of 2005. I also believe that whoever they face, Liverpool will be the slight favorites because of the experience the team has in this competition.
I won't be able to watch tomorrow's Milan v Manchester match, but hopefully it will be a classic.
Last week I was wrong with both results so this week I need to pick up the pace and make some strong predictions for my choices as to who will be facing off in Athens at the end of May
Liverpool FC v Chelsea FC
I really thought a draw was in the cards for the first leg; but again I have to expect that the second leg will be a tight contest, but the likelihood of it being a goal feast will be hard to come by. Both teams are great, even with Chelsea's injury woes to Ballack, Sheva and Ricardo Carvalho so you should expect another close battle between both sides. Chelsea will probably continue with its 4-3-3 while Liverpool will play a 4-3-1-2 or something similar to last week. I honestly think that the crowd will be the determining factor in this match. If the Anfield faithful can become a bother for Chelsea, then you could see 2 goals being scored by Liverpool, enough to go through. But if Chelsea play smart and try their hardest to take the crowd out early, then you could potentially see Chelsea run away with the match. I am taking draw here because of how close these two teams are. Chelsea and Liverpool should both be able to score goals, but it will be the away goal that Chelsea manages to score that will be the end result
Prediction : Liverpool FC v Chelsea 1:1
AC Milan v Manchester United
Since 2005, I have started to hate AC Milan more and more. Back in May of 2005 my first ever soccer match live was the Champions League final in Istanbul between AC Milan and Liverpool. I witnessed history that night and from that point on, my luck with AC has gone no where. Last summer, my beloved Red Star Belgrade had the misfortune of having to play AC Milan in the 3rd round of Qualifier; I watched the 2nd leg live in Belgrade's Marakana. When I've chosen the other team to beat Milan, Milan win. I when I take Milan to win, they lose; just as last week I took Milan to win 1:2, only for them to play slow in the 2nd half and instead of leaving with a goal lead, they trail by a goal.
I really do not know how to pick this one. I honestly see Milan advancing but I think that Man United will play them well and might actually leave with a draw. If Milan win, it will because of the missed opportunities by Manchester.
The Final Four: the four ‘best’ clubs in Europe are slowly ending their seasons and we Footie fans great treated to two excellent series with four clubs that just anyone would love to watch. Considering how tight these matches will be the end result could go a number of ways but it definitely will not be settled after one match
Manchester United v AC Milan
It was only a few weeks ago when Man Utd. were en route to a Premiership title and the buzz around a Treble were loud and clear; but all it took were a few key injuries in the backfield and now the Red Devils are in a position to end the season with no hard-ware. Sir Alex Ferguson should be relieved that Newcastle managed a home draw against Chelsea on Sunday otherwise his team could be in a lot more trouble. Without Centrebacks Nemanja Vidic and Rio Ferdinand, SAF will have to juggle his back line and will be forced to play with some inexperienced players in the key positions. Because of this, the only edge that Manchester has in this series is Wayne Rooney and the Man Utd offence, which only gives them the edge by a sliver.
Milan can’t win the Italian League so they will be placing all their eggs in one basket here and the chances of reaching yet another final is strong reality. With Man Utd missing key defenders, you really have to believe that Milan’s offence will be able to do something. Chances are Milan will probably play a 4-3-1-2 formation with the amazing Kaka playing behind the two strikers. While I did say that Man Utd does have the edge in the Striker’s position, if I put Kaka in as a striker instead of a midfielder, than the edge would be gone. With Kaka able to support up front he might be able to absorb the Man Utd defense which will allow for a player like Inzaghi (if he plays) to poach a possible rebound or get open long enough to attack Van der Saar alone. Milan have the better Midfield with Pirlo and Gattuso taking control there and the defenders who are very experienced should be able to contain most of the Man Utd attacking options.
While this game is being played in Manchester that should be of some help for the Red Devils as they will need the strong support of their fans to help them deal with AC Milan. I do expect goals in this match and goals from both squads. I don’t see Milan running away with this match, but I do see them scoring first and then riding that one goal margin, they might give up a goal late on, but they will be in the driver seat for majority of this game. If Milan does fail to score, it might end up being a huge morale boost to Manchester. But, at the same time, if Milan manages to score more than one goal on the road (as they did in Munich) then I really do not see the Manchester players being able to come-back and dent that lead. If this first leg was played in Milan first, then my outlook would be very different for Manchester, but I am never a fan of the a team that plays the first leg at home so I still fear that this could be a losing battle for Manchester even before the match begins.
Prediction : Manchester United v AC Milan 1:2
Chelsea FC v Liverpool FC
Chelsea’s third Semi-final in four years, will it be third time’s a charm for them or will the club you can’t hate that returns to the final for the 2nd time in three years? On paper this is an extremely close series. With Chelsea, you have a team loaded with superstars, some with the experience necessary for this stage of the competition and others will the talent for this stage of the competition. With Liverpool, you have team loaded with experience and a few really stand-out players. These two clubs essentially cancel each other out considering how well they both are.
The question mark for both teams will be the play of their defenders. Depending on injuries and strategy you can’t really give the edge to one team in that department. You can expect that Chelsea will play with their normal 4-3-3 or variation formation while Liverpool will probably play the basic 4-4-2 formation. In the past, you would expect Liverpool to play with only one striker, but this team has plenty of great attacking options and having Crouch paired up with someone like Kuyt should allow them to get a lot of chances at goal. John Terry will more than likely (as long as he is playing) be paired to take on Crouch in most situations while the other defenders will have to keep their eyes on the other potential attackers. On the flip side, with strikers Drogba Shevchenko leading the attack for Chelsea, you have to also worry that Liverpool’s defence might not be able contain both of them and not worry about Ballack, Lampard and whoever else Chelsea might bring on to play in the Midfield (Wright-Philips, Essien, etc…).
The first leg is at Stamford Bridge, so I already have fears for Chelsea in their hopes to advance; if they give up a goal at home, that could be it and Liverpool will advance, but if Chelsea manage to score and keep Liverpool off the score-sheet, then you have to feel that Chelsea will reach the final. Unfortunately, as I see both these clubs canceling each other out, I expect a repeat of 2005, and a nil-nil draw the end result. It’s not to say that the clubs won’t have their chances, they most definitely will, but considering how even these two teams will be it will give the end result an even finish.
On the other view of this you could look at the progression of both teams in this competition. Chelsea drew at home both times (against Porto and Valencia) so that could happen again. Liverpool have won both matches on the road (against Barcelona and PSV) so that would give the edge to Liverpool. While this may be the case, remember that I am predicting a draw as the end result.
After some really interesting first-leg matches, the next two days will be a delight for soccer fans with four interesting matches, three of which should not be missed.
Chelsea go to Spain and will really need to steal a goal in Valencia. I expect Valencia to play quite defensive knowing quite well that, like Inter Milan in the last round, Chelsea can score goals with almost anyone on their squad. With that, while Valencia do have the home field advantage, I still think Chelsea can manage a goal, but the question will be can Valencia score two to seal the deal. My money is on Chelsea for the time being, but this one could still go either way.
Prediction: Valencia v Chelsea 0:1
United are in trouble, after beling claimed by professional analysts as the best team in Europe, they have lost two straight, their lead in England is only three points and they need to score a goal to advance to the Semis. For them thankfully, they do have that one away goal to help them out, but I think that Roma will be able to score in Manchester and I fear that there won't be enough time on the clock for Man Utd to get back into this game. But if Man Utd can score early, Roma will probably change their tactics and that could lead to counter-attack oppertunities for Man Utd and two or more goals can be scored. I doubt SAF and his side will suffer another loss, so I'm thinking a Man Utd win, but it won't be easy
Prediction: Manchester United v AS Roma 1:0
Liverpool will be heading to the final four, it's just a question how they go in. With their 3:0 away win last week, they booked a shot to head to Athens but now must decide if they want to relax and play a defensive match or continue their offensive attacks and continue to build momentum into the semis. I don't expect any of the key players (Gerrard, Reina, Crouch) to start to save them for injuries and card suspensions. Even with that, I still see them being a stronger side and another victory in the cards
Prediction: Liverpool v PSV Eindhoven 2:0
Out of all the matches, the Bayern v Milan match should be the best one. Milan in my eyes, were not anything special last week and were lucky to get the Penalty call and foolish to let up near the end to give Bayern the edge going into this match in Munich. I think Bayern will manage at least a goal and that puts pressure on Milan to score twice. Even if Milan score first, Bayern can rebound and level the scoreline with their threats upfront. This match could end in a tie, but it won't be a shoot-out tie, but a low-goal one.
The Quarter-finals begin tomorrow and here are my precicted outcomes of the following matches:
Tuesday:
AC Milan v Bayern Munich -
Should be an entertaining match that could end up being low scoring if there is any scoring. I think that while Milan are favored at home, they could still have a hard time scoring against a solid Munich side. With Bayern beating Schalke over the weekend they have renewed hope that they could still win the league title. While they are still behind 3 other teams, they will want to play strong and that strength will be used here. At the same time, Milan drew with Roma on Saturday and they are only 4 points out of a Champions League Qualifying spot. They need to pick up the burners and do well in Italy so I wonder if their focus will be completely on this game. The defence will determine the winner here, but the way I see it this could end in a scoreless draw.
Prediction: AC Milan v Bayern Munich = 0:0
PSV v Liverpool
I'm not a fan of PSV (I support Ajax in Holland) but you have to like them in European Competition because they are essentially the little guy at the big boy dance. They don't have any real super-stars that people can easily associate with, but they have players who work well together. They did play well against Arsenal, but Arsenal have been extremely inconsistent. Liverpool is not Arsenal and their talent will pose a problem for PSV. PSV have suffered a bit in their domestic league. Their once large lead is now only 3 points after a huge home-loss to Ajax sandwiched between two draws. Liverpool killed Arsenal over the weekend and that strength will be great as they head into Eindhoven. I have to give the edge to Liverpool and they should be able to leave with a cruical away goal. Forget about the 0:0 draw during the group stage, this is where the matches matter more and Liverpool are the better team
Prediction: PSV v Liverpool = 0:2
Wednesday:
Roma v Man United
Well before Saturday I was going to say this would end in a draw, but with the loss of Key defender Nemanja Vidic, Roma can really exploit the field and should be able to score at least one goal. Roma should be able to play well at home and that could pose a problem for Manchester. Chances are, you'll see United playing very defensive relying on counter-attacks for offensive chances. If Roma can score a goal early then they could cruise, but if Roma fail to score in the first half, that might give Manchester the confidence they'll be craving.
Prediction: Roma v Man Utd = 1:0
Chelsea v Valencia
Another toss-up here as this could go either way. Chelsea are still in the hunt for a treble (but just barely) and will be craving a victory. Valencia are in a similar boat but they will probably focus more on this match considering they know a single goal in London could be a great thing when heading back. Expect a tight contest and this could end up as being a draw. I know I haven't talked too much about this one, but when you look on paper, this is a toss-up to the highest degree.
The second leg of the first knockout stage is on Tuesday and Wednesday and there is no clear-cut winner and every team will have to play at their best to advance. Here are my predictions for the matches.
Lyon v Roma (First Leg - 0:0)
I expected the first leg would have had some scoring but unfortunately it was a scoreless draw. While the draw hurt no-one, it actually helps Roma a lot because they know that one goal will be more than enough to advance. Lyon are a great team and can score, so having not left Rome with a goal was a surprise. In the end, I still believe that Lyon is the better club but this is a wake-up for those who think Lyon can go all the way. If Lyon scores first, they will win this match, but if they give up the first goal, I fear that they will not be able to score 2 goals to make-up the difference. The first twenty minutes will determine this match and if the score stays scoreless, then look at Roma to upset, but if Lyon scores, then it's over.
Prediction: Lyon v Roma 2:0
Liverpool v Barcelona (First Leg - 2:1)
Liverpool are in the driver's seat. Having surprised everyone by winning in the Nou Camp has put Barca in a situation where they will need to score 2 goals at Anfield to advance. I think it won't happen because Liverpool are known for their strong defence and they will play a 4-5-1 formation to clog the middle of the field. You can expect that Barcelona will play with two dedicated strikers with 1 or 2 attacking midfielders in order to get a goal. In the end, this will be too much of a deficit and while Barcelona could get a goal, they'll only get one.
Prediction: Liverpool v Barcelona 1:1
Chelsea v Porto (First Leg - 1:1)
Having drawn at in Portugal Porto do still stand a chance and Chelsea know that they will have to play serious to advance. While John Terry will be out, Chelsea should try out playing with 3 defenders and 2 defensive midfielders (the old 3-2-3-2 formation). Chelsea will score a goal and that will be more than enough to advance.
Prediction: Chelsea v FC Porto 2:0
Valencia v Inter (First Leg - 2:2)
I have to like Valencia thanks to their 2:2 away draw. Inter haven't had much success since their semi-final run a few years ago so I think that with Valencia playing for a draw, the Inter offence will not be able to score to change the tide. Even if they do score, I still see if there is enough time, Valencia should be able to tie it. If Valencia score, then I doubt Inter will be able to adjust to score two goals to win this series.
Prediction: Valencia v Inter 1:1
Milan v Celtic (First Leg - 0:0)
I predicted the first leg would be a draw and even with a draw, it's clear that Milan are a better team even though this match-up isn't anything spectacular. I think one goal will be scored and it will be by Milan. Celtic will try their hardest to score, but it will be on a counter-attack that gives Milan the goal they need.
Prediction: Milan v Celtic 1:0
Arsenal v PSV (First Leg - 0:1)
When I made my initial asessements of the matches, I felt that the upset would happen here. While Arsenal are doing decent in the Premiership, I think that the recent string of problems will continue here and while they might be able to score a goal, I doubt they'll hold off PSV and they will be eliminated here. See PSV score first and relax, Arsenal will make some changes in their attempt to change the tide, but it won't be enough.
Prediction: Arsenal v PSV 1:1
Man Utd v Lille (First Leg: 1:0)
I think Lille won't even try in this leg. The problems from the first leg will continue here and you can expect their fans will try to cause problems. I think Man Utd will score at least one goal then relax on it. If Lille do give up the early goal, watch for their players to get dirty and take out their anger on the Man Utd players. This game might be interesting to watch just to see if it gets ugly.
Prediction: Man Utd v Lille 3:0
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid (First Leg: 2:3)
Another series that could go either way and it will be interesting to see who goes on. I think that this match will be tight and low-scoring so it might end scoreless, thus giving Real Madrid the victory. I think the injury to Beckham might hurt Real a bit, but they have the talent to still score on Bayern. While Bayern, are not the greatest offensive threat, they too could score. The team that scores first will win this game and advance.
The first leg of all the knockout stage matches are complete and there is definately a lot to talk about. So here we go:
Celtic v Milan
I knew this game would be low scoring and I'm not surprised the match will go to Milan as it is, but while Milan are favored here, it means little. Celtic know the next leg will be low-scoring and one goal will be more than enough to see them through so I could see them playing cautiously in the first half, then hope to strike at Milan on a counter-attack. While that will also be the strategy of Milan, wait for a celtic mistake and then captialize. I don't want to make any predictions yet, but this one at this moment is pretty even with the edge only slightly on Milan based on talent.
Real Madrid v Bayern Munich
Had this match ended at 3:1 for Real, then I would give them this tie, but thanks to the margin only being one goal, it could still go in favor of Bayern. It's going to be an interesting match for both clubs but it will be the club which can play the better defensive play that will advance. The first half will decide the match; if Bayern score in the first half, they will play extra defensive and hope to keep it at 1:0. If Real scores first, I really doubt that Bayern will be able to comeback and score two goals to advance.
PSV v Arsenal
Arsenal did not play well and they are now going to have to rely on fan support and some fireworks will have to come from the feet of the Arsenal players. The problem here in my eyes is that Arsenal doesn't score a lot and with the need to score two goals to win, it might be a problem for them. I don't count them out, but a draw in Eindhoven would have been perfect for the Gunners but now the pressure is really on them.
Lille v Manchester United
I don't think we need to address the crowd problems and the near-walkout, there will be a second-leg and the Red Devils will/should win easily to progress. The first leg wasn't anything special, but it played exactly the way SAF would want and now all they need to do is score one goal and it's over. Lille won't have much in it to even try so the 2nd leg might not be worth watching
Roma v Lyon
I really thought there would be goals scored here, but nothing. The edge is in Lyon's favor but only slightly. They needed to score a goal and now they are going to have to rely on their offence to control the match and put Roma out of their misery. If Roma scores a goal in the first half, I still think Lyon have the power to score one goal, but to score two might be too much if the time isn't there, but with the talent they have, it's not out of the question
FC Porto v Chelsea
While a draw doesn't hurt either of them, a winner would have boosted the confidence of that club. Chelsea got the goal that could see them through, but if they want to play smart and effective, they will need to score at least a goal to really make them feel calm. But at the same time, if they give up a goal, I don't think they are going to worry too much since they should be able to be comeback from a goal deficit and do what is needed. Time will be the true marker here and if an upset comes, it will be at the worst possible moment for Chelsea
Inter v Valencia
Valencia are in the driver's seat with the 2:2 draw. Even at 2:1, they were in a good position to turn the tide in the 2nd leg. With Inter needing to win in Spain, it puts a lot of pressure on a club that doesn't handle it well. Valencia will definately be playing cautious football in the next leg and that isn't too bad, but playing too defensive might hurt them. A goal will see them through and if they have that goal, then playing defensive is the only smart thing to do.
Liverpool v Barcelona
Somebody hit the panic button for Barcelona because they are in trouble. You lead the game early and then you give up two away goals in the worst possible spot. Barcelona are struggling in all departments and now they need to get out of this hole quickly. The problem is that while they have the talent, I don't know if they can do it. Two goals on the road is tough and when you know Liverpool are going to play a 4-5-1 in the next match, it means relying on Ronaldinho to dribble through half the Liverpool squad to get the Barca strikers an oppertunity to score or to attempt at the rebound. Barca need Eto'o and you can almost be certain they'll probably play a 4-3-1-2 at anfield with the possiblity of trying the 4-2-2-2 or 4-2-4 because two goals is the only way Barca are advancing.
So there you have it, my recap of the first leg of matches. While there is still 90 minutes to play, nothing is far from over and it's going to be a lot of great football to watch.
European Football action restarts this week and since I wrote my over-view of the matches a lot has changed and I just wanted to remind myself of the matches and what I think of them
Lille v Manchester United
Over the weekend, Lille lost to Lyon in the French League but are still in third place. Not bad considering the title race in France is all but over and for Lille their focus should be on making sure to finish in the top three this year. With Sochaux, Marseille, Toulouse and a host of other clubs within only 3 points or less of Lille, they might be more concerned with doing better in France than in Europe. The same can be said for Manchester who now have to play another game after Reading were able to force a replay in the FA Cup. While that match won't be a for a couple of weeks, Manchester are still on fire, with the EPL lead and being among the favorites to go far in this tournament. I love Manchester's defence with Rio and Vidic being so solid in the centre. With the addition of Henrik Larsson, the depth is incredible. I don't see Henrik starting this game, but could come in in the 2nd half depending on the scoreline.
Prediction: Lille v Manchester 0:1
Barcelona v Liverpool
Eto'o is back but there are problems in Barcelona. They lost on Sunday and are now tied for first place with Sevilla in La Liga. If this game was in Liverpool, I would be putting solid money on Steven Gerrard and company to win the game easily, but the home-field will help Barca momentarily, but it might be just enough to keep a draw. Liverpool are out of the FA Cup and can't catch up to the top 2 in England. The only way to avoid having to qualify for Europe is to win it all yet again. While it might be a really long shot, with their focus being only on this match, they'll play hard, but in the end the two team will cancel each other out and this will end in a draw. But when the return leg hits Liverpool, you have to expect them to be heavily favored, unless Barcelona wake up.
Prediction: Barcelona v Liverpool 0:0
Real Madrid v Bayern Munich
Two powerhouses in the past but both are playing poorly lately. Bayern fars worse of the two with their hopes of returning as German champions slipping every week. While they aren't out, with 3 clubs ahead of them (Schalke, Stuttgart and Werder) they might also be missing out from getting to appear next season. While I hate Real, I have to give them the win here because of the home-field advantage and the empty pantry Bayern has to choose from. I think it's time for Bayern to rethink their strategy and rebuild. Every club goes through these phases and now it's their time. Real Madrid aren't the best either, but in this match-up they definately have the players on the pitch to score enough goals and to go to Munich with a comfortable lead.
Prediction: Real Madrid v Bayern Munich 2:0
FC Porto v Chelsea
Porto are leading in Portugal while Chelsea are in second place in England. Porto are in a great position to win their domestic crown but the lack of talent on the European stage will not be enough to beat Chelsea. While questions still surround Jose's status next season, he still wants to repeat as a Champions League coach. Chelsea can still win four trophies and thankfully it seems that Shevchenko has gotten into the groove of things and with Drogba being a key-member on this squad, you can't go against them. On paper it's not contest, but Porto will play this game tough knowing it probably will the last match they play in Europe. In the end though, one goal will be enough but Chelsea will score two when Porto try to tie the match
Prediction: FC Porto v Chelsea 0:2
Celtic v AC Milan
So Celtic lead the Scotlish Premiership with a 20 point lead...really impressive (sic). I can't stand Celtic and the Scottish Premiership. It's always a two horse race and considering that they will win the title, I can see this club playing really hard against Milan. Thankfully for Celtic, Milan are still struggling. While they signed Ronaldo, he can't play in this match or any other matches since he already played for Real Madrid this season. The question will be who scores in this match. I don't see a lot of goals, in fact I don't see any. Celtic don't have the same talent, and while Milan are struggling and will not win in Italy, this will be an important match-up for them. In the end, I don't think this match will be memorable and it will stay scoreless
Prediction: Celtic v AC Milan 0:0
PSV v Arsenal
Back when I wrote if there is a shocker in any of the matches, I mentioned that the upset would come here. Today I still feel that way. While I'm not too impressed with either club, I think that PSV can compete against the Current Arsenal squad. In tough opposition, Arsenal play well, but when they play against teams of lesser quality, they struggle. I see that happening again here. PSV doesn't have their own league locked up but they will want to play this match with a lot of intensity and with Arsenal drawing at home against Blackburn in the FA Cup, they are not in the best shape. I really can't say too much about either side but I think that PSV will do enough to win this match but it won't be impressive either.
Prediction: PSV v Arsenal 1:0
AS Roma v Lyon
I mentioned earlier that Lyon have the French league all but
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