Well the Champions League returns on Tuesday and with that, the knock-out stage commences. There are a lot of wonderful ties to watch and there are only a few that you could look at and feel confident about a winner. Here is what I think will occur in this round.
v FC Schalke 04 v FC Porto
On paper and in person, these two are extremely evenly matched. Neither side is incredibly strong, nor are they incredibly weak. Schalke have been inconsistent in the German league this season, but having reached this far is a great accomplishment for them. While they lost at home on Friday, the fact that they'll have four days to rest for this match will be good but it doesn't give them the edge as Porto will have also been rested since Friday. Porto are running away with the Portuguese league and they could start to shift their focus in the hopes of reaching further in this competition. The question here is which team is actually stronger? Yes, Porto do lead their league, but is it in the same quality as Germany? The answer is no. Does that make Schalke a the stronger of the two because they play in a tougher league? Probably not, so again you're left looking at this match as an even contest. I like Schalke in the first leg because they're at home and the crowd will be with them. I expect a close first-half contest, with neither side putting up too many chances, but Schalke will open up in the 2nd half and score a goal. If Porto go down a goal, you'll see them move into the attack and try to grab an away goal. If they decide to play too defensive, then their only chance of scoring will be on the odd-counter attack.
Prediction: Schalke 04 v FC Porto = 2:1
v Liverpool v Inter Milan
With no FA Cup, No Carling Cup and the Premiership out of the question, there is only one trophy the Reds can win this season and the only thing that will save Rafa Benitez from being fired. They face the Italian leaders Inter Milan who have been on-fire this season both in Serie A and in the Champions League. It would be clear that Inter are the favorites in this tie, but in recent years, they have fallen and disappointed their fans in the knock-out stages. With this first match being played at The Anfield, you really have to put the edge at least in this match to Liverpool. Chances are they will play a 4-4-2 but with a midfield that will probably shift more towards aiding the defense rather than setting up the strikers. This match has draw written all over it, but the question will be does it end 0:0 or 1:1. As long as Liverpool do not give up an early goal or do not go behind in the first half, I expect them to stay with a draw. If they do manage to score first, then they could get one more, but I do not expect them to take any risks against Inter and rely on getting an away goal in the return leg.
Prediction: Liverpool v Inter Milan = 1:1
v AS Roma v Real Madrid CF
I am not a fan of either side but this is a really interesting match-up. Real should retain their La Liga title while Roma are trying to fight-off Juventus, Fiorentina and AC Milan for 2nd place in Italy. Roma suffered a 1:0 away loss to Juventus on Saturday but will be glad to have this match at home on Tuesday. Real Madrid also lost on over the weekend on the road after taking an early lead. On paper Real are the better side top-to-bottom but you can expect them to play for the draw here. They have had success against Roma in the past and this might put pressure on the club from the Italian capital to play extremely defensive at home, rather than trying to take their chances. I expect Real Madrid to go for at least one goal and will not worry too much about taking risks up front. Roma might see this and react by shifting to a 5 in the back and play for that boring 0:0 draw. I want a goal in this match, and I expect it will come from the club in white.
Prediction: AS Roma v Real Madrid = 1:2
v Olympiakos v Chelsea
This is the match where everyone is stating, 'so who is Chelsea facing next?'. Olympiakos are the surprise team of the 16 left in the competition and they face an extremely tough side with Chelsea. Chelsea want to play in Moscow in May more than any club in this competition. They've reached the semis 3 times in the last 4 seasons missing out on the big match. Since the premiership title might be out of reach, they can focus their players on this match and I believe they will go at Olympiakos at full force. The problem with the Greek side is that they lack the experience in the later stages of this competiiton and their players are pretty old in comparison to the youth that fills the Chelsea squad. I expect Olympiakos to fight hard, but their lack of skill will only net them at best a scoreless draw.
Prediction: Olympiakos v Chelsea = 0:2
v Celtic v Barcelona
Yes, Barcelona have no performed as well as they should have this season. They have some of the best goal-scorers in the world with Messi, Henry, Ronaldinho and Eto'o not to mention the young spark-plug that is Spanish-Serb Bojan Krkic; but due to some inconsistencies they have no played to their full potential. Celtic will probably look at this match and feel that they can cause some problems for the Barcelona side. I expect that Celtic will take their chances at home and try their hardest to score at least one goal because of their poor form outside of Scotland. Barcelona will hope that Celtic, with their risk-taking go too far and gift them a goal. I expect goals in this match from both sides and it will be the return leg that really decides the winner.
Prediction: Celtic v Barcelona = 2:2
v Lyon v Manchester United
At the beginning of this season, Lyon looked shaky at best. They didn't have their first choice keeper (Coupet) between the sticks and they were having a hard time against opposition that should be easy 3 points. It also looked pretty bad for them when they lost their first two group stage matches, but they turned around won the matches they need to and now must feel extremely confident hosting Manchester United. Manchester had a mixed first part of their League season, but were incredible in the Champions League, although in a relatively weak group that they locked up pretty early. They will try to build on the 4:0 win over Arsenal on the weekend but this will be a very different opponent. I expect a tight contest, but I wouldn't be surprised if Manchester leave with a victory. Over the past few years, I have been a huge supporter of seeing Lyon going far in Europe but they always disapointed. I expect this year they will continue to disappoint. They'll put up a fight, but it will be a 2nd half mistake that will put them behind the 8-ball going to Manchester.
Prediction : Lyon v Manchester Utd. = 1:2
v Fenerbahce v Sevilla
Chances are if you're asked about Turkish club football, you'll respond by mentioning Galatasaray. While that's nice, they are actually not the most successful club from the country, but that Fenerbahce is. This will be the Turkish club's best chance at impressing people in Europe. They have a very diverse squad of younger Turkish players and experienced International talent. Sevilla will be favored in the grand scheme of this series, but their first match in Istanbul will be tough and something they have not experienced in either their previous UEFA Cup success or this season in the group stage. I really like Fenerbahce in the first leg; it won't be a comfortable win, but they'll squeeze out the result they need and head to Spain feeling as though they can advance to the Quarter-finals. Sevilla should not play too defensive but I am certain they will not take their chances.
Prediction: Fenerbahce v Sevilla = 1:0
v Arsenal v AC Milan
Milan looked like they were dead in the water as they couldn't win a league match at home, they were closer to relegation than to the title and nothing was going right. Then entered some young players and the entire team got a massive boost. The fountain of youth has been pretty good as of late and AC Milan are knocking on the door of finishing in the top 4 in Italy. Arsenal on the other hand have had success all season long and outside of missing out Cup trophies in England are on pace to win the Premiership for the first time since their undefeated season a few years back. The squad has developed a lot over the years but are still not that successful in knock-out competitions. They have also had some injury problems as of late and that could cause problems for them in what will be a tough contest. When you have two great clubs like this, you'd want them to have a high-scoring contest, but this has draw written all over it.
Prediction: Arsenal v AC Milan = 0:0
My predictions for the first legs of matches doesn't leave much to the imagination. The first leg is usually played with a lot of caution and clubs at home are not willing to take risks while the away squad do not play to take advantage of their defensive opposition. I think for the neutral, the match to watch will be Celtic v Barcelona while the Fenerbahce v Sevilla will definitely interest the true soccer fan. If there are any surprises, they will be in the Lyon v Manchester and any positive result for Olympiakos (meaning not losing) will also surprise a lot.
In my short life, I have gone to about 6 soccer/football matches. Of those, I watched in person: a friendly between Chelsea and AC Milan in Foxboro; a World Cup Qualifying Match in Belgrade between Serbia and Montenegro vs Belgium. The 2005 Champions League final in Istanbul between AC Milan and Liverpool; two Champions League qualifiers involving Red Star Belgrade (against Cork City from Ireland and AC Milan) and finally a Czech League matching involving Slavia Prague against Sigma. As you can tell, a pretty varied amount of games. The best game of the list of course was the Champions League final while the most boring/uneventful one was the World Cup qualifying match between SCG and BEL. The matches with the most atmosphere was the Liverpool v Milan and the Red Star v Milan matches but the one with the least was the Chelsea v Milan match at Foxboro.
I am a big Premier League fan and a strong supporter of Chelsea. I was in London in 2002 but didn't get to watch them (as I went in early July), so I was unable to see a match at Stamford Bridge but I'd like to go one day and watch them regardless of the location (as long as it's in Europe). In my eyes, while the idea of the Premier League having matches outside of England is nice, I don't like the idea since it is essentially a cheap knock-off of the original product. Regardless of the fact that they are bringing regular-season matches that actually have meaning to them, I think the experience will not be the same. In order to enjoy a sport, you need to be enjoy it in the proper atmosphere. To watch a soccer match involving British teams, you have to watch it in a British atmosphere. When I was in Istanbul, while I supported and cheered for AC Milan, I spent my time before the match with the English speaking Liverpool fans and it was incredible. Yes, a good chunk were ####s towards me (when they found out I was a Chelsea supporter and I fan of AC Milan) but it was the best way to watch the match and to discuss the sport.
I feel this way about the Premier League. If given the chance to watch a match in person, I would rather travel to London (again) or Manchester or Birmingham and sit in Stamford Bridge, Old Trafford or Villa Park and absorb the atmosphere with the dedicated fans, singing the songs and cheering like mad when our team scores. The matches that will be played abroad will be over-priced (while Premier League matches are not cheap to begin with) and hard to find. They are going to play them in areas which are not close to me at all (except if they decide to play a match in Vancouver, Seattle, San Fran or Los Angeles) so getting to the match won't be easy. Chances are for the same amount of money, I can catch a charter flight to London for about 500 dollars, pay another 40-50 dollars for match tickets and a couple of hundred for hotel and food and still have a lower total cost.
Unlike the NFL, who really need to branch outside of North America for the product to be international, the Premier League and European Football in general has been extremely popular around the globe. The league doesn't need help in marketing themselves. If the Premier League really wants to get viewers, they should have started lower and moved either the Community Shield or the FA Cup final to a neutral venue. I wrote back in November of 2006 about the possibility of bringing the Champions League final to New York (link) so why not take that idea and use the Community Shield or the FA Cup have them played overseas. In that situation, you are almost ensured that at least one top class club would be involved and considering the magnitude of the match, the over-priced ticket prices would be justified (although, still too high for most people).
The only thing stopping the Premier League from doing their proposed matches is getting approval from the countries that were mentioned. Japan, Australia and The United States have already stated that they'd like to avoid these matches as all three have still young soccer leagues and that this could stun their growths. It is a valid point and also differs greatly from the NFL's European match project. There, they had nothing competing against them and it was an open market, but here, if you bring the Premier League and it succeeds (which it will) then these leagues will suffer. Fans will have been spoiled with the riches of England and will not want to force themselves to settle with the '2nd-rate' soccer they have available.
In my eyes, the best course of action the Premier League should take is the welcome attitude. I would rather see them offer cheap flight, hotel and match options to people who would like to travel to England to watch a footie match. They already have a partnership with Fly Emirates, so they could agree something with them or any other airline carrier to offer discounted prices on selected flights. Not only would this help the airlines with added business, but it would boost the economies of these English cities. Also, have the clubs save a section of decent (not the best but not the worst) tickets for fans from abbroad so they get the chance to watch a live match. London and Manchester probably wouldn't need this, it would help 'smaller' or lesser visited cities like Birmingham, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, or even Portsmouth in boosting their tourism industries. Heck, you could even offer better deals to people who want to watch The Coca Cola Championship. Watch QPR, Southhampton or even a Leeds United match for an even better deal and still get a great deal out of it. This would help the clubs even more so, since fans will want to take a tour of the stadium and would more than likely would not leave without a purchase or two from the club-store, once again, helping the team in more ways than one.
MatchDay 2 of the Champions League took place this weekend and while most people usually say that the Group Stage is uneventful, you have to admit that this season you already have some interesting situations.
Group A : I doubt anyone would have thought that Marseille would be leading with maximum points and that Liverpool would be in third place with only a single point. Liverpool do not look anything but thankfully they do have the following two matches against Besiktas which should give them the points they need to creep back on top. I would expect Marseille and Porto to draw their two matches, but if Marseille manages to get 4 out of 6, they will advance in the group, while if Porto manages 4 out of 6, then it really opens the door for Liverpool to easily advance, even if they finish 2nd.
Group B: After Chelsea drew with Rosenborg and The Special One leaving, everyone thought that their season was over; chances are it is done in England, but Abramovich wants the Champions League, so that will be his only focus. After managing to beat Valencia in Spain will surely boost the morale of all the players. Their next matches against Schalke should be interesting. Schalke who are currently in 3rd will have to play above their abilities to steal points from Chelsea. If that happens, it could re-open the posibility for Valencia to take back the top of the group. While it is still early, what hurts for Chelsea in the long run is that they will have to go to Trondheim in late November and the lack of enough sun-light could pose a problem for the team.
Group C: This group should be the most difficult of the groups. Olympiakos and Real are tied for the lead and Lazio is close behind them with 2 draws while Bremen are surprisingly in last place with no points. I think that Bremen, even though are still in it, will not pose a threat if they fail to win maximum points in their next matches against Lazio. With Olympiakos and Madrid facing off, Lazio or Bremen could get back into the mix if the first two clubs draw with each other. Olympiakos must be playing now with purpose after finally winning a road match in the Champions League. Their fans would love nothing more than to finally go far in this tournament.
Group D: Shakhtar in First Place?! I really could not believe that in a group with AC Milan, that the team leading the group is from the Ukraine. While yes, they have not played Milan yet, this should surely be a boost in their confidence going into their next two matches. I doubt that Shakhtar will beat Milan in the San Siro, but if they manage a draw, it will be just as good as a win and it will put more pressure on Carlo Ancelotti who could be out before the end of the season. The true test here will be between Celtic and Milan, one team could miss out and at this moment, it looks like Milan could be that team out of the UCL and on the road to the UEFA Cup final.
Group E: Barca in first place, no surprise; Lyon with no points and Rangers with Maximum points, HUGE surprise. I doubt anyone who took a look at a group with powerhouse Barcelona and French Giant's Lyon would have said that they wouldn't be duking it out for first place, but the surprise from Glasgow only technically needs to get 3 more points in the next four matches to advance to the knockout rounds. The German Champs are in trouble and will probably lose to Lyon in their next match. If either side gets maximum points from at least one of their next two matches, then that club could still pose a problem, but if both matches are draws, then Rangers will advance and both the coaches for Stuttgart and Lyon will be out the door. Barcelona will probably play for a draw in Glasgow and a win at home, lock up first place and then rest players for the knockout stage.
Group F: Manchester are in control here and if they manage to win against Dynamo in their next match, will all but ensure a place in the next round. The real focus now is the battle between Roma and Sporting as both clubs standing a fighting chance to advance. If Dynamo manage to steal points from Manchester (especially in Kyiv) then things could get interesting, but it's highly doubtful. I really think the Roma v Sporting matches will be great for the neutral fan.
Group G: Another group that is great for Neutral fans, you have true Champions League Group with Champions from for respective countries and a group that is still wide open after two matches. While Inter are the team that should advance, the fact that Fenerbahce lead the group is a bit of a surprise but means nothing when they only have a 3 point cushion over last place CSKA. The jury is still out on this group, but if Inter fall or draw in their next match(es) over CSKA, could be problematic for them.
Group H: Oh Arsenal and your Scientology ways. You are surely on the road to Moscow the way you are playing. Comfortable win against Sevilla and a nice road win against Steaua. With your upcoming matches against Slavia, you could/should win easily and enter be one of the first team to qualify for the Round of 16. Only a shock loss will cause problems for you, but that won't happen. The question here is if Sevilla can get accustomed to the Champions League and advance. Slavia and Steaua will both feel they can steal 2nd place and both will do their hardest to get the necessary points. Slavia will probably be the best bet to pip Sevilla, but only if they manage to steal a point or two against Arsenal.
As a Chelsea supporter for quite sometime, I have seen the club go from being a medium-class side in England to the Biggest name in the game. While this season will not be labeled as a success it is definitely not a failure in the history of Chelsea FC.
The Problem from this season stems solely on the additions that the club made. While they did manage to pick up some great name-talent in Michael Ballack and Andriy Shevchenko, neither performed well and chances are that both will be gone from England in July and August. Both probably would like to stay and considering their lack of consistency this season, only a few clubs would be willing to spend the money to pick up these players.
Khalid Boulahrouz was a disappointment and not the utility defender the club thought he would be. John Obi Mikel and Salomon Kalou also did not impress this season, but thankfully their youth is a sign of things to come and with both players expected to play a major part in the future, they will only get better.
Ashley Cole did suffer injury problems this season so his season wasn't that great either. While he too is still relatively young it is another good sign for the future.
Bandwagon Chelsea fans who joined the True Blue only recently will probably think the necessary course of action is for Chelsea to buy more star-players and fix the problem with money. I on the other hand have to disagree. Yes, the quick fix is to but the players you need and fill the holes, but a lot of times that does not give the team long term returns. In my eyes, the best idea is to build the youth squad and grow from within.
There are few good young player that Chelsea currently own the rights to. Up front you have Israeli Ben Sahar, who at 17 is already playing for the Israeli National squad and is poised to eventually get a spot on the Chelsea A Team. In defense, Chelsea own the rights to a Serbian defender Slobodan Rajkovic who because of being from an non-EU country (Serbia) he can't join the team until he turns 18, but he too has been extremely promising both in the Serbian SuperLiga and for the Serbian U21 side that has been among the best in Europe for the past 3-5 years. Serbian defenders have been able to adapt to the English game quite easily (Nemanja Vidic at Man Utd and Dejan Stefanovic at Portsmouth), so he should be able to play well in England.
There are other young players on the youth and reserve squad of Chelsea that are only a few years away from top-flight status and considering that Chelsea already own them, there is no extra cost incurred on them. Arsenal have already been going through this re-building process with their younger players and you can expect that they will be a threat next season; Man Utd went through the same process with a lot of their younger players and now they have a great squad, so it's only fitting that Chelsea will have to go through this process too.
It's clear that you can't have success with a team filled with superstars. This year's edition of Chelsea and Real Madrid for the past few years are proof that even with the name talent, you do not always get the trophies. If you can mix a team with youth and experience the results will show. Chelsea have plenty of great established players in Cech, Terry, Essien, Lampard and Drogba who will be at Stamford Bridge for a while and if you can build the team with players who have the potential than another trophy is in the cards.
The other item to look at with Chelsea is the layout for the season. Chelsea have won two Premiership Titles and unless Tottenham and/or another decent get a huge influx of money and talented players, the club will continue to finish in the top 3 or 4 and a berth in the UCL. If Chelsea want to win that trophy they need to follow in Liverpool's foot-steps and focus on that trophy as their number goal rather than winning everything and the EPL. If they focus their talents on that trophy, chances are they could finally reach the grand stage; considering that Moscow will be hosting the final in two years would be a great time for Roman to have his side finally reach the summit. Hopefully depending on the outcome of the UCL final in Athens, Liverpool will start to shift their focus from winning in Europe to finally winning a Premiership Title, something they have yet to do...heck Blackburn Rovers have an EPL title.
Two Years ago I was in the stands in Istanbul with my AC Milan Shirt and Champions League Final Scarf draped around my neck. I saw from the beginning looked like a rout turn into the greatest final ever played and one that took two days to complete (the matched finished after 00:15 the next day). The 2007 edition, again being played in the EET (Eastern European Time-Zone) with the same two teams. The match is already being talking about in so many ways. Will Milan avenge the mistakes from Istanbul? Will Liverpool solidify themselves as one of the Best European Clubs ever? Will this match be as good as the first one.
In my opinion, I doubt this final will be as good as that since the bar is set so high, but considering the history of both clubs, you can be certain it will be a good final none-the-less.
At this very moment, I like Liverpool to repeat and win this match. Milan are a great side as well but I think that the Liverpool players will want this title more. Milan might be bothered to much by the Re-match Headline and that could pose a problem, but the fact that they have beaten some tough teams to get here (Bayern Munich and Manchester United) helps.
A long time ago I wrote a piece about clubs I support throughout Europe. I will not deny that I am a True Blue fan, a fan even before the Russian Billions were introduced to the team; I have a personalized Chelsea Jersey to show my support. At the same time, if there is a club I have a soft spot, regardless of what they do is Liverpool. I was there in person in Istanbul when I saw the magic of a 3 goal comeback in 9 minutes and since then, I have been glad to watch Liverpool Football whenever possible.
If there is one thing I am disappointed with Liverpool is the lack of effort they put in England and it rarely seems that they want to contend for the EPL crown, rather playing well in knockout competitions and in Europe. A club with the history of Liverpool should be craving an EPL title more than any other other club (with the possible exception of a Newcastle fan).
Today, they were the better side, taking every advantage they had and using it to full capacity. The longer it stayed 1:0, I thought Chelsea would manage to steal a goal and end it, even in Extra time, it seemed that all it would take was one mistake and Chelsea would end any chance for Liverpool, but it was not the case.
The Penalty shootout was almost decided after Robben missed the first shot that was saved by Reina. Chelsea have the talent, but I didn't see the players with all that much heart and the off-field issues of injuries and Jose finally caught up to them. At least Chelsea can say they have been in the Final Four three times in the last four years, but having not reached a final will still be the underlying issue.
While Liverpool will now focus on their trip to Athens in 3 weeks, Chelsea will need to figure out what to do next. Chances are after Saturday, Man Utd will have sealed the trophy in the EPL and Chelsea's hope for a Domestic Trebble will end as well. The FA Cup is still realistic but will the players have the morale to go into with same mentality as before?
Chances are the Chelsea Front-office will try to go out and buy new players in the hopes of building the super-squad, but I hope that they go against that and stick to developing younger talent and growing a team that will be the same for at least two seasons. Arsenal are going through that re-building phase, Manchester just completed their rebuilding and now Chelsea should start from the bottom. As long as they don't follow in the foot-steps of Real Madrid, they should be fine; even Barcelona had to suffer some hard-ships in the early goings before they got to where they are. True Chelsea fans will support the team regardless of what happens next.
As for Liverpool, I will be cheering for them regardless of who they face in Athens. After this result, I wish/hope that Manchester reach the finals because I think it will be a much more interesting final, rather than a repeat of 2005. I also believe that whoever they face, Liverpool will be the slight favorites because of the experience the team has in this competition.
I won't be able to watch tomorrow's Milan v Manchester match, but hopefully it will be a classic.
Last week I was wrong with both results so this week I need to pick up the pace and make some strong predictions for my choices as to who will be facing off in Athens at the end of May
Liverpool FC v Chelsea FC
I really thought a draw was in the cards for the first leg; but again I have to expect that the second leg will be a tight contest, but the likelihood of it being a goal feast will be hard to come by. Both teams are great, even with Chelsea's injury woes to Ballack, Sheva and Ricardo Carvalho so you should expect another close battle between both sides. Chelsea will probably continue with its 4-3-3 while Liverpool will play a 4-3-1-2 or something similar to last week. I honestly think that the crowd will be the determining factor in this match. If the Anfield faithful can become a bother for Chelsea, then you could see 2 goals being scored by Liverpool, enough to go through. But if Chelsea play smart and try their hardest to take the crowd out early, then you could potentially see Chelsea run away with the match. I am taking draw here because of how close these two teams are. Chelsea and Liverpool should both be able to score goals, but it will be the away goal that Chelsea manages to score that will be the end result
Prediction : Liverpool FC v Chelsea 1:1
AC Milan v Manchester United
Since 2005, I have started to hate AC Milan more and more. Back in May of 2005 my first ever soccer match live was the Champions League final in Istanbul between AC Milan and Liverpool. I witnessed history that night and from that point on, my luck with AC has gone no where. Last summer, my beloved Red Star Belgrade had the misfortune of having to play AC Milan in the 3rd round of Qualifier; I watched the 2nd leg live in Belgrade's Marakana. When I've chosen the other team to beat Milan, Milan win. I when I take Milan to win, they lose; just as last week I took Milan to win 1:2, only for them to play slow in the 2nd half and instead of leaving with a goal lead, they trail by a goal.
I really do not know how to pick this one. I honestly see Milan advancing but I think that Man United will play them well and might actually leave with a draw. If Milan win, it will because of the missed opportunities by Manchester.
The Final Four: the four ‘best’ clubs in Europe are slowly ending their seasons and we Footie fans great treated to two excellent series with four clubs that just anyone would love to watch. Considering how tight these matches will be the end result could go a number of ways but it definitely will not be settled after one match
Manchester United v AC Milan
It was only a few weeks ago when Man Utd. were en route to a Premiership title and the buzz around a Treble were loud and clear; but all it took were a few key injuries in the backfield and now the Red Devils are in a position to end the season with no hard-ware. Sir Alex Ferguson should be relieved that Newcastle managed a home draw against Chelsea on Sunday otherwise his team could be in a lot more trouble. Without Centrebacks Nemanja Vidic and Rio Ferdinand, SAF will have to juggle his back line and will be forced to play with some inexperienced players in the key positions. Because of this, the only edge that Manchester has in this series is Wayne Rooney and the Man Utd offence, which only gives them the edge by a sliver.
Milan can’t win the Italian League so they will be placing all their eggs in one basket here and the chances of reaching yet another final is strong reality. With Man Utd missing key defenders, you really have to believe that Milan’s offence will be able to do something. Chances are Milan will probably play a 4-3-1-2 formation with the amazing Kaka playing behind the two strikers. While I did say that Man Utd does have the edge in the Striker’s position, if I put Kaka in as a striker instead of a midfielder, than the edge would be gone. With Kaka able to support up front he might be able to absorb the Man Utd defense which will allow for a player like Inzaghi (if he plays) to poach a possible rebound or get open long enough to attack Van der Saar alone. Milan have the better Midfield with Pirlo and Gattuso taking control there and the defenders who are very experienced should be able to contain most of the Man Utd attacking options.
While this game is being played in Manchester that should be of some help for the Red Devils as they will need the strong support of their fans to help them deal with AC Milan. I do expect goals in this match and goals from both squads. I don’t see Milan running away with this match, but I do see them scoring first and then riding that one goal margin, they might give up a goal late on, but they will be in the driver seat for majority of this game. If Milan does fail to score, it might end up being a huge morale boost to Manchester. But, at the same time, if Milan manages to score more than one goal on the road (as they did in Munich) then I really do not see the Manchester players being able to come-back and dent that lead. If this first leg was played in Milan first, then my outlook would be very different for Manchester, but I am never a fan of the a team that plays the first leg at home so I still fear that this could be a losing battle for Manchester even before the match begins.
Prediction : Manchester United v AC Milan 1:2
Chelsea FC v Liverpool FC
Chelsea’s third Semi-final in four years, will it be third time’s a charm for them or will the club you can’t hate that returns to the final for the 2nd time in three years? On paper this is an extremely close series. With Chelsea, you have a team loaded with superstars, some with the experience necessary for this stage of the competition and others will the talent for this stage of the competition. With Liverpool, you have team loaded with experience and a few really stand-out players. These two clubs essentially cancel each other out considering how well they both are.
The question mark for both teams will be the play of their defenders. Depending on injuries and strategy you can’t really give the edge to one team in that department. You can expect that Chelsea will play with their normal 4-3-3 or variation formation while Liverpool will probably play the basic 4-4-2 formation. In the past, you would expect Liverpool to play with only one striker, but this team has plenty of great attacking options and having Crouch paired up with someone like Kuyt should allow them to get a lot of chances at goal. John Terry will more than likely (as long as he is playing) be paired to take on Crouch in most situations while the other defenders will have to keep their eyes on the other potential attackers. On the flip side, with strikers Drogba Shevchenko leading the attack for Chelsea, you have to also worry that Liverpool’s defence might not be able contain both of them and not worry about Ballack, Lampard and whoever else Chelsea might bring on to play in the Midfield (Wright-Philips, Essien, etc…).
The first leg is at Stamford Bridge, so I already have fears for Chelsea in their hopes to advance; if they give up a goal at home, that could be it and Liverpool will advance, but if Chelsea manage to score and keep Liverpool off the score-sheet, then you have to feel that Chelsea will reach the final. Unfortunately, as I see both these clubs canceling each other out, I expect a repeat of 2005, and a nil-nil draw the end result. It’s not to say that the clubs won’t have their chances, they most definitely will, but considering how even these two teams will be it will give the end result an even finish.
On the other view of this you could look at the progression of both teams in this competition. Chelsea drew at home both times (against Porto and Valencia) so that could happen again. Liverpool have won both matches on the road (against Barcelona and PSV) so that would give the edge to Liverpool. While this may be the case, remember that I am predicting a draw as the end result.
After some really interesting first-leg matches, the next two days will be a delight for soccer fans with four interesting matches, three of which should not be missed.
Chelsea go to Spain and will really need to steal a goal in Valencia. I expect Valencia to play quite defensive knowing quite well that, like Inter Milan in the last round, Chelsea can score goals with almost anyone on their squad. With that, while Valencia do have the home field advantage, I still think Chelsea can manage a goal, but the question will be can Valencia score two to seal the deal. My money is on Chelsea for the time being, but this one could still go either way.
Prediction: Valencia v Chelsea 0:1
United are in trouble, after beling claimed by professional analysts as the best team in Europe, they have lost two straight, their lead in England is only three points and they need to score a goal to advance to the Semis. For them thankfully, they do have that one away goal to help them out, but I think that Roma will be able to score in Manchester and I fear that there won't be enough time on the clock for Man Utd to get back into this game. But if Man Utd can score early, Roma will probably change their tactics and that could lead to counter-attack oppertunities for Man Utd and two or more goals can be scored. I doubt SAF and his side will suffer another loss, so I'm thinking a Man Utd win, but it won't be easy
Prediction: Manchester United v AS Roma 1:0
Liverpool will be heading to the final four, it's just a question how they go in. With their 3:0 away win last week, they booked a shot to head to Athens but now must decide if they want to relax and play a defensive match or continue their offensive attacks and continue to build momentum into the semis. I don't expect any of the key players (Gerrard, Reina, Crouch) to start to save them for injuries and card suspensions. Even with that, I still see them being a stronger side and another victory in the cards
Prediction: Liverpool v PSV Eindhoven 2:0
Out of all the matches, the Bayern v Milan match should be the best one. Milan in my eyes, were not anything special last week and were lucky to get the Penalty call and foolish to let up near the end to give Bayern the edge going into this match in Munich. I think Bayern will manage at least a goal and that puts pressure on Milan to score twice. Even if Milan score first, Bayern can rebound and level the scoreline with their threats upfront. This match could end in a tie, but it won't be a shoot-out tie, but a low-goal one.
The Quarter-finals begin tomorrow and here are my precicted outcomes of the following matches:
Tuesday:
AC Milan v Bayern Munich -
Should be an entertaining match that could end up being low scoring if there is any scoring. I think that while Milan are favored at home, they could still have a hard time scoring against a solid Munich side. With Bayern beating Schalke over the weekend they have renewed hope that they could still win the league title. While they are still behind 3 other teams, they will want to play strong and that strength will be used here. At the same time, Milan drew with Roma on Saturday and they are only 4 points out of a Champions League Qualifying spot. They need to pick up the burners and do well in Italy so I wonder if their focus will be completely on this game. The defence will determine the winner here, but the way I see it this could end in a scoreless draw.
Prediction: AC Milan v Bayern Munich = 0:0
PSV v Liverpool
I'm not a fan of PSV (I support Ajax in Holland) but you have to like them in European Competition because they are essentially the little guy at the big boy dance. They don't have any real super-stars that people can easily associate with, but they have players who work well together. They did play well against Arsenal, but Arsenal have been extremely inconsistent. Liverpool is not Arsenal and their talent will pose a problem for PSV. PSV have suffered a bit in their domestic league. Their once large lead is now only 3 points after a huge home-loss to Ajax sandwiched between two draws. Liverpool killed Arsenal over the weekend and that strength will be great as they head into Eindhoven. I have to give the edge to Liverpool and they should be able to leave with a cruical away goal. Forget about the 0:0 draw during the group stage, this is where the matches matter more and Liverpool are the better team
Prediction: PSV v Liverpool = 0:2
Wednesday:
Roma v Man United
Well before Saturday I was going to say this would end in a draw, but with the loss of Key defender Nemanja Vidic, Roma can really exploit the field and should be able to score at least one goal. Roma should be able to play well at home and that could pose a problem for Manchester. Chances are, you'll see United playing very defensive relying on counter-attacks for offensive chances. If Roma can score a goal early then they could cruise, but if Roma fail to score in the first half, that might give Manchester the confidence they'll be craving.
Prediction: Roma v Man Utd = 1:0
Chelsea v Valencia
Another toss-up here as this could go either way. Chelsea are still in the hunt for a treble (but just barely) and will be craving a victory. Valencia are in a similar boat but they will probably focus more on this match considering they know a single goal in London could be a great thing when heading back. Expect a tight contest and this could end up as being a draw. I know I haven't talked too much about this one, but when you look on paper, this is a toss-up to the highest degree.
It's closing down to the showcase final in Athens in May and we are now down to 8 clubs and some really interesting possible match-ups. Here is what I have to say about the following fixtures.
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So it took AC Milan 183 minutes to finally score a goal and that was against Glasgow Celtic. While you could look at it from the other angle that AC Milan have a clean sheet for 210 minutes (in knockout stages). It's good that the AC Milan defence was able to keep the clean-sheet the lack of goals is going to hurt them if they want to get any further in this tournaments. Considering how well Bayern Munich played against Real Madrid over the two legs you have to give them the edge in this match-up. Bayern were able to score goals when they need a goal and they played well defensively against a Real team that even if they don't have their top players still have a great squad. I think the question mark here is can AC Milan score more than one goal, because this series should and will need someone to score multiple goals to win series. Right now, Bayern are my pick to advance, but if AC Milan can win the first leg by more than a goal, then they could advance. If they don't, then see Bayern in the semis.
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This is a nice match-up if you're a neutral spectator because these are both good teams and if you're from Eindhoven or support PSV, you feel that this should have been the 2005 Final. PSV travel again to England but this time will have to take on a club that can score plenty. In this series, the first leg is key and the scoreline there will dictate who will go to the semis. PSV will have to continue playing well defensively in order to stop Liverpool, while on the other side, Liverpool know that if they leave Eindhoven with at least one goal then they will really have the leg up. I'm giving the edge to Liverpool because of the talent they have and the fact that is the only title they can still realistically win. Chances are that coach Benitez will rest key players in the premiership to ensure he can field the best possible squad in both matches. PSV haven't locked up the the Dutch League yet, so they will need to keep their focus on both titles and ensuring that their players stay in shape.
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AS Roma really did surprise me when they managed to take down the talented Lyon side. It's not going to get any easier for them considering they must take on the leaders from England. Manchester are definitely heavy favorites here and with their rock-solid defence should be able to prevent Roma from scoring. Roma though will need to go away from their frequent lone-striker (Totti) because the only way they will break the Man Utd back four is to flood the box as much as possible. Injuries could be a problem for Manchester as they are still battling for 2 other titles (FA Cup and Premiership) so Sir Alex Ferguson needs to ensure the health of his key players. I expect that the first leg will more than likely end in a draw, but that it will be Manchester who wins handily at home to advance to the semi-finals.
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The fourth and final quarter-finals sees Chelsea take on Valencia in another match-up that that will be interesting for the neutral fan. Chelsea are finally waking up and their new signings are showing their worth and that will be important later on. It still hasn't been said what punishments will be handed out to Valencia for their part in their fight with Inter Milan after their match-up so that could affect the outcome. Chelsea will be relying on winning the first leg at home and then coasting in the second leg, but with the problems in the back with injuries conceding a goal is likely. If Valencia do manage to leave London with a draw, then they could go on and win this series. While if Chelsea can win in London without conceding, then they should be able to head to the semis.
The second leg of the first knockout stage is on Tuesday and Wednesday and there is no clear-cut winner and every team will have to play at their best to advance. Here are my predictions for the matches.
Lyon v Roma (First Leg - 0:0)
I expected the first leg would have had some scoring but unfortunately it was a scoreless draw. While the draw hurt no-one, it actually helps Roma a lot because they know that one goal will be more than enough to advance. Lyon are a great team and can score, so having not left Rome with a goal was a surprise. In the end, I still believe that Lyon is the better club but this is a wake-up for those who think Lyon can go all the way. If Lyon scores first, they will win this match, but if they give up the first goal, I fear that they will not be able to score 2 goals to make-up the difference. The first twenty minutes will determine this match and if the score stays scoreless, then look at Roma to upset, but if Lyon scores, then it's over.
Prediction: Lyon v Roma 2:0
Liverpool v Barcelona (First Leg - 2:1)
Liverpool are in the driver's seat. Having surprised everyone by winning in the Nou Camp has put Barca in a situation where they will need to score 2 goals at Anfield to advance. I think it won't happen because Liverpool are known for their strong defence and they will play a 4-5-1 formation to clog the middle of the field. You can expect that Barcelona will play with two dedicated strikers with 1 or 2 attacking midfielders in order to get a goal. In the end, this will be too much of a deficit and while Barcelona could get a goal, they'll only get one.
Prediction: Liverpool v Barcelona 1:1
Chelsea v Porto (First Leg - 1:1)
Having drawn at in Portugal Porto do still stand a chance and Chelsea know that they will have to play serious to advance. While John Terry will be out, Chelsea should try out playing with 3 defenders and 2 defensive midfielders (the old 3-2-3-2 formation). Chelsea will score a goal and that will be more than enough to advance.
Prediction: Chelsea v FC Porto 2:0
Valencia v Inter (First Leg - 2:2)
I have to like Valencia thanks to their 2:2 away draw. Inter haven't had much success since their semi-final run a few years ago so I think that with Valencia playing for a draw, the Inter offence will not be able to score to change the tide. Even if they do score, I still see if there is enough time, Valencia should be able to tie it. If Valencia score, then I doubt Inter will be able to adjust to score two goals to win this series.
Prediction: Valencia v Inter 1:1
Milan v Celtic (First Leg - 0:0)
I predicted the first leg would be a draw and even with a draw, it's clear that Milan are a better team even though this match-up isn't anything spectacular. I think one goal will be scored and it will be by Milan. Celtic will try their hardest to score, but it will be on a counter-attack that gives Milan the goal they need.
Prediction: Milan v Celtic 1:0
Arsenal v PSV (First Leg - 0:1)
When I made my initial asessements of the matches, I felt that the upset would happen here. While Arsenal are doing decent in the Premiership, I think that the recent string of problems will continue here and while they might be able to score a goal, I doubt they'll hold off PSV and they will be eliminated here. See PSV score first and relax, Arsenal will make some changes in their attempt to change the tide, but it won't be enough.
Prediction: Arsenal v PSV 1:1
Man Utd v Lille (First Leg: 1:0)
I think Lille won't even try in this leg. The problems from the first leg will continue here and you can expect their fans will try to cause problems. I think Man Utd will score at least one goal then relax on it. If Lille do give up the early goal, watch for their players to get dirty and take out their anger on the Man Utd players. This game might be interesting to watch just to see if it gets ugly.
Prediction: Man Utd v Lille 3:0
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid (First Leg: 2:3)
Another series that could go either way and it will be interesting to see who goes on. I think that this match will be tight and low-scoring so it might end scoreless, thus giving Real Madrid the victory. I think the injury to Beckham might hurt Real a bit, but they have the talent to still score on Bayern. While Bayern, are not the greatest offensive threat, they too could score. The team that scores first will win this game and advance.
The first leg of all the knockout stage matches are complete and there is definately a lot to talk about. So here we go:
Celtic v Milan
I knew this game would be low scoring and I'm not surprised the match will go to Milan as it is, but while Milan are favored here, it means little. Celtic know the next leg will be low-scoring and one goal will be more than enough to see them through so I could see them playing cautiously in the first half, then hope to strike at Milan on a counter-attack. While that will also be the strategy of Milan, wait for a celtic mistake and then captialize. I don't want to make any predictions yet, but this one at this moment is pretty even with the edge only slightly on Milan based on talent.
Real Madrid v Bayern Munich
Had this match ended at 3:1 for Real, then I would give them this tie, but thanks to the margin only being one goal, it could still go in favor of Bayern. It's going to be an interesting match for both clubs but it will be the club which can play the better defensive play that will advance. The first half will decide the match; if Bayern score in the first half, they will play extra defensive and hope to keep it at 1:0. If Real scores first, I really doubt that Bayern will be able to comeback and score two goals to advance.
PSV v Arsenal
Arsenal did not play well and they are now going to have to rely on fan support and some fireworks will have to come from the feet of the Arsenal players. The problem here in my eyes is that Arsenal doesn't score a lot and with the need to score two goals to win, it might be a problem for them. I don't count them out, but a draw in Eindhoven would have been perfect for the Gunners but now the pressure is really on them.
Lille v Manchester United
I don't think we need to address the crowd problems and the near-walkout, there will be a second-leg and the Red Devils will/should win easily to progress. The first leg wasn't anything special, but it played exactly the way SAF would want and now all they need to do is score one goal and it's over. Lille won't have much in it to even try so the 2nd leg might not be worth watching
Roma v Lyon
I really thought there would be goals scored here, but nothing. The edge is in Lyon's favor but only slightly. They needed to score a goal and now they are going to have to rely on their offence to control the match and put Roma out of their misery. If Roma scores a goal in the first half, I still think Lyon have the power to score one goal, but to score two might be too much if the time isn't there, but with the talent they have, it's not out of the question
FC Porto v Chelsea
While a draw doesn't hurt either of them, a winner would have boosted the confidence of that club. Chelsea got the goal that could see them through, but if they want to play smart and effective, they will need to score at least a goal to really make them feel calm. But at the same time, if they give up a goal, I don't think they are going to worry too much since they should be able to be comeback from a goal deficit and do what is needed. Time will be the true marker here and if an upset comes, it will be at the worst possible moment for Chelsea
Inter v Valencia
Valencia are in the driver's seat with the 2:2 draw. Even at 2:1, they were in a good position to turn the tide in the 2nd leg. With Inter needing to win in Spain, it puts a lot of pressure on a club that doesn't handle it well. Valencia will definately be playing cautious football in the next leg and that isn't too bad, but playing too defensive might hurt them. A goal will see them through and if they have that goal, then playing defensive is the only smart thing to do.
Liverpool v Barcelona
Somebody hit the panic button for Barcelona because they are in trouble. You lead the game early and then you give up two away goals in the worst possible spot. Barcelona are struggling in all departments and now they need to get out of this hole quickly. The problem is that while they have the talent, I don't know if they can do it. Two goals on the road is tough and when you know Liverpool are going to play a 4-5-1 in the next match, it means relying on Ronaldinho to dribble through half the Liverpool squad to get the Barca strikers an oppertunity to score or to attempt at the rebound. Barca need Eto'o and you can almost be certain they'll probably play a 4-3-1-2 at anfield with the possiblity of trying the 4-2-2-2 or 4-2-4 because two goals is the only way Barca are advancing.
So there you have it, my recap of the first leg of matches. While there is still 90 minutes to play, nothing is far from over and it's going to be a lot of great football to watch.
How it must suck to be a Man United fan after Sunday. On Saturday Liverpool helped you guys out by taking care of Chelsea. We all knew Sunday's match against Arsenal wouldn't be a walk in the park, but a draw would have been more than enough to increase your lead, but instead of a draw you allow Thiery Henry, who isn't known for his great heading ability to score the winner in the 92nd minute. Instead of having a 7 or 9 point lead, you only have a 6 point lead and have allowed Liverpool and Arsenal to get right back into the thick of things.
While I doubt Liverpool or Arsenal will be able to cover the difference, they can still cause enough problems to make Manchester fans worry because you now have 3 clubs that want to take you down. You're done with Arsenal, having lost both games to them, but you still have to face Chelsea and Liverpool once more each so they could narrow the margins right there.
But at the same time, Chelsea have to worry too. They have a 5 point lead on Liverpool, but if they fall, then Liverpool could sneak and take 2nd. I think the worst case scenario for Chelsea could just be that. 3rd place and having to qualify for UCL is not something Roman would want right now, and with Jose secretly reaching for the door, we Chelsea fans have to concern ourselves with a lot.
There is still a lot of soccer/football still to be played so anything can still happen. I'll be interested to see how these teams play up until the re-start of the Champions League. If Liverpool, Arsenal or Chelsea give up any ground on Manchester, I am certain that club will throw in the towel and focus solely on the UCL. But if Manchester lose while the others win, then the race until May will be ever so delicious.
The draw for the 2nd round of UEFA's Champions League was held this morning and as I predicted there was one clear-cut easy match-up, two hard to predict matches and the rest are pretty evenly based.
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Lille v Manchester United: This really shouldn't be too tough for Manchester United who have among the best goalkeepers in the world with Edwin Van Der Sar and a slew of other great world-class players. As long as injuries are not a problem in the next two months I do not expect Manchester to have a problem in advancing. I predict a 0:1 or 1:1 scoreline in Lille with Man Utd will win easiliy 2:0 at home in the return leg.
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