Well the Champions League returns on Tuesday and with that, the knock-out stage commences. There are a lot of wonderful ties to watch and there are only a few that you could look at and feel confident about a winner. Here is what I think will occur in this round.
v FC Schalke 04 v FC Porto
On paper and in person, these two are extremely evenly matched. Neither side is incredibly strong, nor are they incredibly weak. Schalke have been inconsistent in the German league this season, but having reached this far is a great accomplishment for them. While they lost at home on Friday, the fact that they'll have four days to rest for this match will be good but it doesn't give them the edge as Porto will have also been rested since Friday. Porto are running away with the Portuguese league and they could start to shift their focus in the hopes of reaching further in this competition. The question here is which team is actually stronger? Yes, Porto do lead their league, but is it in the same quality as Germany? The answer is no. Does that make Schalke a the stronger of the two because they play in a tougher league? Probably not, so again you're left looking at this match as an even contest. I like Schalke in the first leg because they're at home and the crowd will be with them. I expect a close first-half contest, with neither side putting up too many chances, but Schalke will open up in the 2nd half and score a goal. If Porto go down a goal, you'll see them move into the attack and try to grab an away goal. If they decide to play too defensive, then their only chance of scoring will be on the odd-counter attack.
Prediction: Schalke 04 v FC Porto = 2:1
v Liverpool v Inter Milan
With no FA Cup, No Carling Cup and the Premiership out of the question, there is only one trophy the Reds can win this season and the only thing that will save Rafa Benitez from being fired. They face the Italian leaders Inter Milan who have been on-fire this season both in Serie A and in the Champions League. It would be clear that Inter are the favorites in this tie, but in recent years, they have fallen and disappointed their fans in the knock-out stages. With this first match being played at The Anfield, you really have to put the edge at least in this match to Liverpool. Chances are they will play a 4-4-2 but with a midfield that will probably shift more towards aiding the defense rather than setting up the strikers. This match has draw written all over it, but the question will be does it end 0:0 or 1:1. As long as Liverpool do not give up an early goal or do not go behind in the first half, I expect them to stay with a draw. If they do manage to score first, then they could get one more, but I do not expect them to take any risks against Inter and rely on getting an away goal in the return leg.
Prediction: Liverpool v Inter Milan = 1:1
v AS Roma v Real Madrid CF
I am not a fan of either side but this is a really interesting match-up. Real should retain their La Liga title while Roma are trying to fight-off Juventus, Fiorentina and AC Milan for 2nd place in Italy. Roma suffered a 1:0 away loss to Juventus on Saturday but will be glad to have this match at home on Tuesday. Real Madrid also lost on over the weekend on the road after taking an early lead. On paper Real are the better side top-to-bottom but you can expect them to play for the draw here. They have had success against Roma in the past and this might put pressure on the club from the Italian capital to play extremely defensive at home, rather than trying to take their chances. I expect Real Madrid to go for at least one goal and will not worry too much about taking risks up front. Roma might see this and react by shifting to a 5 in the back and play for that boring 0:0 draw. I want a goal in this match, and I expect it will come from the club in white.
Prediction: AS Roma v Real Madrid = 1:2
v Olympiakos v Chelsea
This is the match where everyone is stating, 'so who is Chelsea facing next?'. Olympiakos are the surprise team of the 16 left in the competition and they face an extremely tough side with Chelsea. Chelsea want to play in Moscow in May more than any club in this competition. They've reached the semis 3 times in the last 4 seasons missing out on the big match. Since the premiership title might be out of reach, they can focus their players on this match and I believe they will go at Olympiakos at full force. The problem with the Greek side is that they lack the experience in the later stages of this competiiton and their players are pretty old in comparison to the youth that fills the Chelsea squad. I expect Olympiakos to fight hard, but their lack of skill will only net them at best a scoreless draw.
Prediction: Olympiakos v Chelsea = 0:2
v Celtic v Barcelona
Yes, Barcelona have no performed as well as they should have this season. They have some of the best goal-scorers in the world with Messi, Henry, Ronaldinho and Eto'o not to mention the young spark-plug that is Spanish-Serb Bojan Krkic; but due to some inconsistencies they have no played to their full potential. Celtic will probably look at this match and feel that they can cause some problems for the Barcelona side. I expect that Celtic will take their chances at home and try their hardest to score at least one goal because of their poor form outside of Scotland. Barcelona will hope that Celtic, with their risk-taking go too far and gift them a goal. I expect goals in this match from both sides and it will be the return leg that really decides the winner.
Prediction: Celtic v Barcelona = 2:2
v Lyon v Manchester United
At the beginning of this season, Lyon looked shaky at best. They didn't have their first choice keeper (Coupet) between the sticks and they were having a hard time against opposition that should be easy 3 points. It also looked pretty bad for them when they lost their first two group stage matches, but they turned around won the matches they need to and now must feel extremely confident hosting Manchester United. Manchester had a mixed first part of their League season, but were incredible in the Champions League, although in a relatively weak group that they locked up pretty early. They will try to build on the 4:0 win over Arsenal on the weekend but this will be a very different opponent. I expect a tight contest, but I wouldn't be surprised if Manchester leave with a victory. Over the past few years, I have been a huge supporter of seeing Lyon going far in Europe but they always disapointed. I expect this year they will continue to disappoint. They'll put up a fight, but it will be a 2nd half mistake that will put them behind the 8-ball going to Manchester.
Prediction : Lyon v Manchester Utd. = 1:2
v Fenerbahce v Sevilla
Chances are if you're asked about Turkish club football, you'll respond by mentioning Galatasaray. While that's nice, they are actually not the most successful club from the country, but that Fenerbahce is. This will be the Turkish club's best chance at impressing people in Europe. They have a very diverse squad of younger Turkish players and experienced International talent. Sevilla will be favored in the grand scheme of this series, but their first match in Istanbul will be tough and something they have not experienced in either their previous UEFA Cup success or this season in the group stage. I really like Fenerbahce in the first leg; it won't be a comfortable win, but they'll squeeze out the result they need and head to Spain feeling as though they can advance to the Quarter-finals. Sevilla should not play too defensive but I am certain they will not take their chances.
Prediction: Fenerbahce v Sevilla = 1:0
v Arsenal v AC Milan
Milan looked like they were dead in the water as they couldn't win a league match at home, they were closer to relegation than to the title and nothing was going right. Then entered some young players and the entire team got a massive boost. The fountain of youth has been pretty good as of late and AC Milan are knocking on the door of finishing in the top 4 in Italy. Arsenal on the other hand have had success all season long and outside of missing out Cup trophies in England are on pace to win the Premiership for the first time since their undefeated season a few years back. The squad has developed a lot over the years but are still not that successful in knock-out competitions. They have also had some injury problems as of late and that could cause problems for them in what will be a tough contest. When you have two great clubs like this, you'd want them to have a high-scoring contest, but this has draw written all over it.
Prediction: Arsenal v AC Milan = 0:0
My predictions for the first legs of matches doesn't leave much to the imagination. The first leg is usually played with a lot of caution and clubs at home are not willing to take risks while the away squad do not play to take advantage of their defensive opposition. I think for the neutral, the match to watch will be Celtic v Barcelona while the Fenerbahce v Sevilla will definitely interest the true soccer fan. If there are any surprises, they will be in the Lyon v Manchester and any positive result for Olympiakos (meaning not losing) will also surprise a lot.
The second leg of the first knockout stage is on Tuesday and Wednesday and there is no clear-cut winner and every team will have to play at their best to advance. Here are my predictions for the matches.
Lyon v Roma (First Leg - 0:0)
I expected the first leg would have had some scoring but unfortunately it was a scoreless draw. While the draw hurt no-one, it actually helps Roma a lot because they know that one goal will be more than enough to advance. Lyon are a great team and can score, so having not left Rome with a goal was a surprise. In the end, I still believe that Lyon is the better club but this is a wake-up for those who think Lyon can go all the way. If Lyon scores first, they will win this match, but if they give up the first goal, I fear that they will not be able to score 2 goals to make-up the difference. The first twenty minutes will determine this match and if the score stays scoreless, then look at Roma to upset, but if Lyon scores, then it's over.
Prediction: Lyon v Roma 2:0
Liverpool v Barcelona (First Leg - 2:1)
Liverpool are in the driver's seat. Having surprised everyone by winning in the Nou Camp has put Barca in a situation where they will need to score 2 goals at Anfield to advance. I think it won't happen because Liverpool are known for their strong defence and they will play a 4-5-1 formation to clog the middle of the field. You can expect that Barcelona will play with two dedicated strikers with 1 or 2 attacking midfielders in order to get a goal. In the end, this will be too much of a deficit and while Barcelona could get a goal, they'll only get one.
Prediction: Liverpool v Barcelona 1:1
Chelsea v Porto (First Leg - 1:1)
Having drawn at in Portugal Porto do still stand a chance and Chelsea know that they will have to play serious to advance. While John Terry will be out, Chelsea should try out playing with 3 defenders and 2 defensive midfielders (the old 3-2-3-2 formation). Chelsea will score a goal and that will be more than enough to advance.
Prediction: Chelsea v FC Porto 2:0
Valencia v Inter (First Leg - 2:2)
I have to like Valencia thanks to their 2:2 away draw. Inter haven't had much success since their semi-final run a few years ago so I think that with Valencia playing for a draw, the Inter offence will not be able to score to change the tide. Even if they do score, I still see if there is enough time, Valencia should be able to tie it. If Valencia score, then I doubt Inter will be able to adjust to score two goals to win this series.
Prediction: Valencia v Inter 1:1
Milan v Celtic (First Leg - 0:0)
I predicted the first leg would be a draw and even with a draw, it's clear that Milan are a better team even though this match-up isn't anything spectacular. I think one goal will be scored and it will be by Milan. Celtic will try their hardest to score, but it will be on a counter-attack that gives Milan the goal they need.
Prediction: Milan v Celtic 1:0
Arsenal v PSV (First Leg - 0:1)
When I made my initial asessements of the matches, I felt that the upset would happen here. While Arsenal are doing decent in the Premiership, I think that the recent string of problems will continue here and while they might be able to score a goal, I doubt they'll hold off PSV and they will be eliminated here. See PSV score first and relax, Arsenal will make some changes in their attempt to change the tide, but it won't be enough.
Prediction: Arsenal v PSV 1:1
Man Utd v Lille (First Leg: 1:0)
I think Lille won't even try in this leg. The problems from the first leg will continue here and you can expect their fans will try to cause problems. I think Man Utd will score at least one goal then relax on it. If Lille do give up the early goal, watch for their players to get dirty and take out their anger on the Man Utd players. This game might be interesting to watch just to see if it gets ugly.
Prediction: Man Utd v Lille 3:0
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid (First Leg: 2:3)
Another series that could go either way and it will be interesting to see who goes on. I think that this match will be tight and low-scoring so it might end scoreless, thus giving Real Madrid the victory. I think the injury to Beckham might hurt Real a bit, but they have the talent to still score on Bayern. While Bayern, are not the greatest offensive threat, they too could score. The team that scores first will win this game and advance.
The first leg of all the knockout stage matches are complete and there is definately a lot to talk about. So here we go:
Celtic v Milan
I knew this game would be low scoring and I'm not surprised the match will go to Milan as it is, but while Milan are favored here, it means little. Celtic know the next leg will be low-scoring and one goal will be more than enough to see them through so I could see them playing cautiously in the first half, then hope to strike at Milan on a counter-attack. While that will also be the strategy of Milan, wait for a celtic mistake and then captialize. I don't want to make any predictions yet, but this one at this moment is pretty even with the edge only slightly on Milan based on talent.
Real Madrid v Bayern Munich
Had this match ended at 3:1 for Real, then I would give them this tie, but thanks to the margin only being one goal, it could still go in favor of Bayern. It's going to be an interesting match for both clubs but it will be the club which can play the better defensive play that will advance. The first half will decide the match; if Bayern score in the first half, they will play extra defensive and hope to keep it at 1:0. If Real scores first, I really doubt that Bayern will be able to comeback and score two goals to advance.
PSV v Arsenal
Arsenal did not play well and they are now going to have to rely on fan support and some fireworks will have to come from the feet of the Arsenal players. The problem here in my eyes is that Arsenal doesn't score a lot and with the need to score two goals to win, it might be a problem for them. I don't count them out, but a draw in Eindhoven would have been perfect for the Gunners but now the pressure is really on them.
Lille v Manchester United
I don't think we need to address the crowd problems and the near-walkout, there will be a second-leg and the Red Devils will/should win easily to progress. The first leg wasn't anything special, but it played exactly the way SAF would want and now all they need to do is score one goal and it's over. Lille won't have much in it to even try so the 2nd leg might not be worth watching
Roma v Lyon
I really thought there would be goals scored here, but nothing. The edge is in Lyon's favor but only slightly. They needed to score a goal and now they are going to have to rely on their offence to control the match and put Roma out of their misery. If Roma scores a goal in the first half, I still think Lyon have the power to score one goal, but to score two might be too much if the time isn't there, but with the talent they have, it's not out of the question
FC Porto v Chelsea
While a draw doesn't hurt either of them, a winner would have boosted the confidence of that club. Chelsea got the goal that could see them through, but if they want to play smart and effective, they will need to score at least a goal to really make them feel calm. But at the same time, if they give up a goal, I don't think they are going to worry too much since they should be able to be comeback from a goal deficit and do what is needed. Time will be the true marker here and if an upset comes, it will be at the worst possible moment for Chelsea
Inter v Valencia
Valencia are in the driver's seat with the 2:2 draw. Even at 2:1, they were in a good position to turn the tide in the 2nd leg. With Inter needing to win in Spain, it puts a lot of pressure on a club that doesn't handle it well. Valencia will definately be playing cautious football in the next leg and that isn't too bad, but playing too defensive might hurt them. A goal will see them through and if they have that goal, then playing defensive is the only smart thing to do.
Liverpool v Barcelona
Somebody hit the panic button for Barcelona because they are in trouble. You lead the game early and then you give up two away goals in the worst possible spot. Barcelona are struggling in all departments and now they need to get out of this hole quickly. The problem is that while they have the talent, I don't know if they can do it. Two goals on the road is tough and when you know Liverpool are going to play a 4-5-1 in the next match, it means relying on Ronaldinho to dribble through half the Liverpool squad to get the Barca strikers an oppertunity to score or to attempt at the rebound. Barca need Eto'o and you can almost be certain they'll probably play a 4-3-1-2 at anfield with the possiblity of trying the 4-2-2-2 or 4-2-4 because two goals is the only way Barca are advancing.
So there you have it, my recap of the first leg of matches. While there is still 90 minutes to play, nothing is far from over and it's going to be a lot of great football to watch.
The draw for the Champions League knockout stage is set for Friday. If you have seen the list of clubs involved you can see that most if not all of these teams have historically been some of the best in Europe and the possible match-ups that could occur would make any footie fan go insane.
Just take a look at the two pots:
Group Winners:
Runner-Ups:
These are the 16 clubs that will all be fighting for a chance to play in the finals in Athens. They are the best of the best. Of the 16 only two clubs have not reached the finals of this tournment: Lyon and Lille, both of the french clubs. Lyon has been at this point of the tournament numerous times, usually falling to a tough side while Lille is here for the first time and a lot of people are not expecting much from them. Further more, of the sixteen tClubs, only 6 of them have not won the trophy: Chelsea, Valencia, Lyon, Arsenal, Roma and Lille while Chelsea and both French Sides have not reached the finals. If you want to go even deeper with the quality of these teams, only Roma, Lyon and Lille have not won a major European trophy (note: Lyon and Lille have each won the Intertoto Cup, but that is not an exclusive trophy and not considered here).
If you're a fan of a club from the group winners you are hoping that your club avoids Barcelona, Inter and Real. You're praying you get Lille but wouldn't mind playing against PSV, Celtic, Porto or Roma, considering they 'should' be beatable. While if you are a fan of a club in the runner-up grouping, you are probably hoping you're club gets to face Valencia or Milan considering of they are the only two group winner's who are not in the top five of their respective countries (Arsenal is currently 6th but they have a match today (Wednesday) and that could change). While yes, Valencia and Milan are not among the best locally, they are definately teams that you need to watch out, but honestly, all the teams are.
I am anxious for Friday's draw and will be giving my early predictions from each match. I expect there to be at least one really tough draw and one really lop-sided draw (since UEFA always manages to 'pull' that off) so stay tuned for more over the weekend.
As an added bonus, I might even give my predictions on the UEFA Cup, but that's only if there are matches worth my time.
A plain and simple sports nut. I love to read about sports and now I'm writing about them. I've been to a lot of sporting events in my short existence and I've always thought about getting into the field (as a writer or an athlete). This is the best place to practice and to read what others have to say on specific topics. What you will get from my blogs are views about the NFL and European Soccer (Club and Country). There will be the occasional Hockey talk (as I am from Ottawa but I live in British Columbia) and from time-to-time I might discuss what is going on in the NBA.