What would Johnny Damon do?  Take the money and run.

It is a wild day to be living in the “no man’s land” of the New York/New England rivalry here in Fairfield County, CT, with more talk and spinning than after a  George Bush press conference (although these participants can pronounce world leaders’ names and talk in full sentences).  Although you hate to lose a guy like Johnny Damon, today it is like the Tet Offensive in the way the Viet Cong of the New York media come out of their hardened bunkers to show us just how ignorant they are about sports team that aren’t located in the Bermuda Triangle from East Rutherford, New Jersey in the West to Flushing, New York in the East and the Bronx , New York to the North.

Case in point this morning is WFAN’s B-List radio host, Richard Neer.  Poor Richard had the unfortunate timing to be filling in for Joe Benigno this AM and, like the deer in the headlines he always been, wilted under the blistering heat of the Red Sox/Yankee hot stove.  And make no mistake about it, the temperature rose of few degrees today in both baseball capitals.  When a team holds a press conference to discuss losing a free agent, you know the heat is on.

Will this hurt the Red Sox?  Absolutely.  Will the Red Sox enter Spring Training with either a less than ideal top of the order or defensive centerfielder?  Almost certainly.  Would this have happen if Theo were still running the show?  More likely than most out there would think. 

Damon is an outstanding defensive CF who had the moxy to play a deceivingly difficult CF in Fenway Park like a free safety (although he threw like a 3 year-old girl, a few rungs up the ladder from Bernie Williams) and was a statistically solid, although inconsistent, presence at the top of the order.  What’s that you say?  That’s right, Damon was a nice statistical lead-off hitter (I contend that runs scored are purely a statistic of getting on base when you have David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez batting behind you), not gaudy, but a respectable OBP of .362 from 2002-2005 as Red Sox lead-off hitter, during basically the same time period, recent clean shaven acquisition Mark Loretta posted an OBP of .379.

Holy ignorant Gotham sportscasters, Batman!

That’s right, Mr. Neer,  Your rant about the “unnecessary reconstruction” of the Red Sox infield was all the “ants” – Ignorant, Arrogant, Irrelevant, Misinformant, etc., etc.  The Red Sox infield swaps Kevin Millar and Edgar Rented diarrhea for Loretta and the admittedly overrated Kevin Youkilis (isn’t addition by subtraction enough?) and we are supposed to be worried?  Some combination of Tony Graffanino and Loretta would man second and short, unless an upgrade is found (although stats show either’s range is as good as Renteria’s, most of the time Renteria’s “range” was quickly followed by throws in to the first base dugout). 

There is no denying that the loss of the consummate professional Bill Mueller will hurt, but a few dozen Mike Lowell home runs or the blossoming of blue chip prospect Andy Marte has the potential of at least offsetting that loss.  In summary, positive for discarding Millar and Rent-A-Wreck offset by a negative with huge upside in losing Mueller doesn’t not sound like the Armageddon situation our dear Mr. Neer describes, does it?  Maybe you should stick to FM Rock, Richard.

The current batting order has issues as it takes Loretta out an ideal number two spot to bat lead-off and opens up a gaping hole at the top of the line-up.  Trot Nixon, Youkilis and Graffanino will all be considered for this spot, but a deficiency here in front of David and Manny would cause a percentage decline to the Red Sox offense that would be matched only by the final reduction Mr. Ramirez is going to have to make off of his $6.9 million asking price for his Ritz-Carlton condominium.

The Red Sox are looking at a number of centerfielder options to replace the “Unfrozen Caveman Centerfielder,’” but the most intriguing option could become a win/win for another team that is looking to reverse an offseason mistake.  The Texas Rangers should have, no needed, to get a starting pitcher for Alfonso Soriano and, instead, got a package headlined by CF Brad Wilkerson.  Now that Texas has woken up from its long winter nap and started to acquire mediocre starting pitching, the Red Sox should offer up the very economical Bronson Arroyo in exchange (or as part of a package) for Wilkerson.  

Loretta and Wilkerson at the top of the Red Sox order would be a better table setting pair than Damon and the underachieving, overpaid veteran de jour that the Red Sox utilized last year (with our good buddy Edgar piling up the most "power" points).  The Red Sox would still be left with a rotation of Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett (an acquisition by the bungling Red Sox GM committee that Mr. Neer also seems to have forgotten), resident malcontent David Wells, once in a generation phenom Jonathan Papelbon and old man river, Tim Wakefield.  The depth that Arroyo could have added in the bullpen will be buoyed by… uh… Rudy Seanez. Regardless, the idea of a younger, less idiotic Red Sox team gets me back in the Christmas spirit.

And we can all look forward to a late May day 2006 with the Yankees struggling to another 10-8 softball game-like loss that drops their record to 20-25 and the unfrozen one, who has “surprisingly” seen his production drop from his walk year totals to a .325 OBP with a less than .700 OPS, for the first time, declares  “how much looser they would be if they could let their hair down and put pine tar on their helmets and be the idiots that they all are.”  Then, from across the star-laden Yankee locker room, the sullen glare from Mr. Professional, Derek Jeter, will remind Johnny he’s not in Kansas (City) anymore… or Oakland or even Boston for that matter.

Greg

As the Red Sox embark on the tag team GM era of Hoyer and Cherington (who had the advantage of having a COMBINED age less than most of their competition) with Theo Epstein somewhere behind the curtain either officially or unofficially pulling the strings, much works still needs to be done before the moving trucks head south in February.  The Red Sox offseason moves so far look like a coloring job by my four year-old: uneven and out of order, but, thankfully, no one has #### outside the lines… YET!

The biggest issue still remains two of the Red Sox top three offensive players, Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon.  Ramirez’s soap opera is going on 25 months now (if it hasn’t since the day they signed him) and, frankly,  is getting old.  The basic problem to do any deal is that the Red Sox want a trading parent to give the Red Sox more than they themselves think he is worth (Remember two years ago, anyone could have had Manny for zero compensation).  On any objective measure, his contract is 2005 is above market value and, yet, the Red Sox want equal trade value in return.  The Red Sox clearly would be more enamored with Vladimir Guerrero than Manny and Guerrero is making approximately $5 million less a season.  In order to move Manny, the Red Sox will have to eat some money (like the $11 million in the Rent-A-Wreck deal) or lower their trade demands.  The one thing that will continue to give this life is the dwindling years left on the contract and the attractiveness that may give a team that is going for it all in any given year (i.e. 2006 Mets).  And, hey, if the Phillies can move Jim Thome, anything is possible.  For everyone touting the Javier Vazquez acquisition as the cornerstone of a repeat let me suggest that trading Aaron Rowand for Thome to fill Frank Thomas’ spot as chronically disabled first baseman, will hurt the White Sox defense dramatically.  The guy is Jim Edmonds without the mustard.

Speaking of centerfielders with mustard, as far as Damon goes, replacing him in centerfield with a player such as Seattle’s Jeremy Reed would be a step down defensively and leave a gaping hole in the top of the batting order as newly acquired 2B Mark Loretta will slot in the first or second slots in the order, but the Red Sox will struggle to find another top of the order type hitter.  Reed’s .322 OBP won’t cut it for the OBP obsessed Sox and Trot Nixon has historically struggled from the top of the order and the demands of being in the two hole would further compromise his fragility.  Kevin Youkilis?  Please, he really hasn’t proven he can have competitive at bats at the major league level despite Stephen King and Stewart O’Nan’s obsession over him in Faithful, officially the worst book ever written (if I read one more story about a 40 something year-old “man” driving a broken down car from Hartford to Boston every night just to push kids out of the way for foul balls, I swore I would have killed somebody… probably myself).

Assuming a re-signing of Damon, the Red Sox line-up and needs like this:

	Line-up (9):		Bats	The Skinny
1	Johnny Damon	CF	L	Without him or a comparable top-of-the-line-up hitter (any available?), an impressive line-up drops down quite a few notches.
2	Mark Loretta	2B	R	His on base percentage since being traded from Milwaukee in 2002: .379 in 1,845 plate appearances.
3	David Ortiz	DH	L	Most important player in Red Sox history.
4	Manny Ramirez	LF	R	Something tells me I’d like Miggy being Miggy (or Manny being Miggy for that matter) better than Manny being Manny; however, even with the Orioles being the Orioles, they will, too.
5	Trot Nixon	RF	L	Health is a huge issue, 5-6-7 holes are questionable either way, but if he’s injured, there maybe a lot of three and outs before the top of the order.
6	Mike Lowell	3B	R	Hoping for a big bounce back, will draw the ire of fans if he struggles to start versus the consistency of Bill Mueller.
7	Jason Varitek	C	B	Need to rest him more during the season or another September/October fall off is likely.
8	Kevin Youkilis	1B	R	The “Greek God of Walks” needs to show he can swing the bat consistently – also need a left handed platoon hitter.
9	Alex Gonzalez	SS	R	Even Alex Cora would be an improvement over Rent-A-Wrek.

The most important line-up holes to fill for the Red Sox line-up are a starting shortstop and a lefty platoon first baseman.  After exhausting the Tejada option (aka – the 2006 World Series Championship option), the Red Sox likely will sign ex-Marlin Alex Gonzalez. At 1B, journeyman Roberto Petagine has the type of bat the Red Sox would want, but not the defense.  Ultimately, the Red Sox should be to use their excess mediocore starting pitching (i.e. Matt Clement) to pry Adrian Gonzalez loose from Texas.  In fact, if the Red Sox do lose out on Damon, the centerfielder on a layover in Arlington, Brad Wilkerson, could probably be acquired for a package including SP Bronson Arroyo. 

Bench  (4):			Bats	The Skinny
Adrian Gonzalez		1B	L	Very well could be the starting 1B if acquired.
Alex Cora		INF	L	Did a nice job in Boston last year… Does Uribe’s grounder make it through his legs?
Juan Encarnarcion		CF	R	If Enacrnarcion doesn’t land a starting job elsewhere, he’d be a nice fit – plus the Sox need a reliable RH bat off the bench.
Eddie Perez		C	R	If acquired, knows how to be a one pitcher specialist.

The Red Sox have plenty of questions and depth in their starting rotation.  It says here that the Red Sox head to Fort Meyers with David Wells as their #3 in a rotation that unfolds like this:

Starting Pitchers  (5):		Throws	The Skinny
Curt Schilling		R	The entire season is contingent on his recovery… no pressure though.
Josh Beckett		R	MRI results seem to have been cause for concern… first big start in Yankee Stadium will be quite interesting
David Wells		L	Resident malcontent and big mouth ogre for one more year; it’s a wonder no one else wants him.
Jonathan Papelbon		R	Huge upside, will be missed in the bullpen.
Tim Wakefield		R	How will he react without Mirabelli?

The Red Sox continue to look for bullpen depth (if you didn’t have enough of Rudy Seanez the first time, he maybe coming back), but we are going to assume the Red Sox final offseason move will be to use Bronson Arroyo out there this year in a middle relief:

Bullpen  (7):			Throws	The Skinny
Keith Foulke		CL	R	First shot to return to 2004 postseason form, will not have a lot of rope.
Mike Timlin		SU	R	Pro’s pro, 1st in line if Foulke doesn’t return to 2004 form.
Lenny DiNardo		LS	L	Quietly had a nice 2005, will get a chance to take over Mike Meyers lefty specialist role.  Status as only lefty will change during the season.
Bronson Arroyo		MR	R	Red Sox like his rubber arm out of the pen but was shaky in that role in 2004 postseason (helped immensely by A-Rod’s slap).
Guillermo Mota		MR	R	Very disappointing for a little over a season in Florida, a question mark just like the rest of the Marlins trade.
Chad Bradford		RS	R	More and more of a righthanded specialist, his job security would have to be considered highly questionable after an inconsistent 2005 (pitched half season after surgery).
Jamie Vermilyea		LR	R	2006 Rule V draftee from the Blue Jays; Red Sox like to keep their Rule V guys and with the need to develop bullpen depth, they will be tempted to.

Prospects and others not on the 25 man roster:

Manny Declarman (RHRP): Boston kid, will have an impact on 2006 season, although Red Sox desire to accumulate as many arms in the bullpen as possible will motivate the Red Sox to utilize his ooptions.  IF Arroyo is traded or moves to the rotation, it will significantly effect Declarman.

Craig Hansen (RHRP):  Closer of the future, still raw, like Declarman Sox will use his option status to build depth.

Jon Lester (LHSP):  Best lefthanded arm in the organization, could if accelerated to Boston if the need is there.

Dustin Pedora (2B/SS?): The Red Sox 2B or maybe SS of the future will be in Fenway this summer.

Wade Miller (RHSP): Surgery will likely cost him much of 2006.

Jermaine Van Buren (RHRP):  had a great year at Iowa (AAA) for the Cubs, ditto Declarman and Hansen.

Ken Huckaby (C): Non-roster invitee expected to be Wakefield’s personal catcher, but a Perez or Flaheryy type may afford Varitek more rest.

Andy Marte:  You mean we got a player for Rent-A-Wreck, too?!?  New can’t miss prospect, will get more AAA seasoning as the 3B/1B situation works itself out.

Adam Stern (OF): 2005 Rule V draftee, will probably start in 2006 for seasoning and because too many lefty bats on the bench already.

Kelly Shoppach (C): With Varitek in place for three years, likely to be used as trade bait… for hopefully more than Larry Bigbie.

Edgar Martinez (RHRP): Righthanded power arm could be accelerated if Bullpen Plan A does not work out.

 Greg

I think that Moneyball by Michael Lewis is one of the most important books ever written on baseball and sports in general.  It drives me absolutely nuts when I hear baseball announcers circa 2005 who admit, almost brag, that when a player like Kevin Youkilis comes to the plate that “He was a prominent characters in the book about Billy Beane, although I haven’t read it.”  This is especially true of a former Reds second baseman who does Sunday Night Baseball games on ESPN.  For a baseball analyst, this should be grounds for immediate termination.  I am all for those who believe in old school, heck I consider myself old school, but his is not about old school vs. a new fad.  Moneyball is about common sense vs. stubborn bureaucracy.

Let me start by saying that I find Lewis’ writing entertaining, but his conclusion, at times, questionable.  This is somewhat offset by the almost surreal fact that he is married to Tabitha Soren, one of MTVs all-time hotties.  Back when MTV used to be watchable.  I digress, Lewis’ blueprint for the future of Solomon Brothers in Liar’s Poker didn’t work out so well, but it was a very entertaining book. I served as CFO of a company that had Jon Gutfreund on its Board of Directors which made the book that much more interesting.  His novelette Coach was a wonderful reflection of the effect of sports on our lives and the influence that a coach can have and is a must read for anyone who has the benefit of coaches who help shape people’s lives or those that do it themselves.

Secondly, despite those of you who haven’t read may think, Billy Beane does not come out of this smelling like a rose.  It is impossible to finish that book without coming away thinking that he must have more than a few screws loose.  His OCDish behavior with his pager while the A’s were about the set the major league record for consecutive wins was enough to make you cringe.  The interesting part of moneyball to a beancounting geek like me is the convergence of economic theory and talent evaluation.  This played right into my love of sports and my expertise attained as a finance professional, specifically my MBA in finance.  Disclaimer: My comments from  hereon are not meant to be arrogant or condescending, but I think, based on my discussions with people as the inefficient markets that Lewis described have evolved, is that Lewis’ audience didn’t necessarily have the background to understand how the market for talent and, more importantly skills, would evolve post-Moneyball.

First of all, the moneyball concept is not about getting players with high on base percentages.  While much of the book was devoted to Jeremy Brown, Scott Hatteberg and Youkilis’ on base prowess, these were examples of how the traditional baseball mentality under values these skills and what Beane and his Ivy-league staff saw in each of them that made them a target.  The book was about capitalizing on inefficient markets or arbitrage.  Arbitrage theory is a complicated sounding name for a simple concept, basically that if A is willing to sell something for less than B is willing to pay for it, you should buy as much from A as you can and sell to B until A raises his selling price and B lowers his buying price to an equal point or an efficient market.

This happens in high finance everyday and the efficiency is usually found in seconds or minutes but vast amounts of wealth can be created in the interim.  What Lewis discovered that in Beane’s world of valuing statistics and talents that other GMs ignored is that these market inefficiencies have been allowed to exist indefinitely.  What brings the concept the most credibility is that Beane blue chip status as young phenoml in the Mets system was a product of the exact old school system he is now tearing down.

The theory that a teams’ wins per season can be based on their run differential (runs scored minus runs allowed) is widely accepted and a long term trend that have proven itself throughout baseball history.  Balancing his franchise’s future on a bare bones payroll, Beane & Company set out to determine based on statistical analyses, what would be the cheapest way to put together a team that would win enough games to make the playoffs (90+ wins per season)?  The complex run creation statistical analysis gives high marks to hitters who get on base and pitchers who keep players off of base, but these attributes were not valued by the traditional school of thought as batting average, home runs, RBIs, etc. 

In Jim Collins’ business novel Good to Great, he describes how successful organizations break larger goals into seemingly unrelated subgoals or components.  He used, as an example, a very successful high school cross country that stopped evaluating its runners by time and started to evaluated how many runners each passed, since the ultimate goal was to win the race and not put up the best time.  In a similar components based approach, Beane didn’t worry about results oin terms of statistics, but what those statistics told about process of achieving his ultimate goal - wins.  “You score a run if you don’t get to first base” would be a fitting phrase for Moneyball believers.

What Beane found during his years of building the A’s into an unlikely powerhouse is that players who maximized at bats and had high on base percentages relative to their batting averages, were not just available, but many times for the league minimum.  Beane sucked these players up and has had an amazingly successful during an age of reckless spending on better known free agents.  Statistical analysis for pitchers showed moneyballers that a ball hit in play being an out or hit was, with average defensive players, a someone random occurrence, so the A’s put a premium on a pitchers who had low walks and home runs allowed and high strike-out ratios led to unkown such as Chad Bradford and Corey Lidle becoming key members of title runs.

As moneyball disciples spread out around baseball (and the book was released, leaving many GMs Red faced), the market for the above skills became more efficient and new arbitrage opportunities were experimented with and uncovered.  In 2004, then Red Sox GM Theo Epstein traded away the most popular Boston sports personality since Larry Bird, Nomar Garciaparra, armed the knowledge that he would save more runs by improving his infield defense than acquiring a lackluster pitcher and turned a .500 team into World Champs three months later.  This offseason, the media deemed the rose being off the Beane bloom, when he signed Esteban Loaiza a three year contract, but a statistical analysis showed him to be the equal of A’s star Barry Zito over the past three years, but at half was Zito will demand on the open market and is likely to be traded by the A’s at a premium prior to opening day.

This has already caused a dramatic shift in how we, or I at any rate, use baseball statistics.  Batting average is a meaningless statistic in my head and is only useful as a component of on base percentage.  When a pitcher comes in a game, I focus on his innings pitched, walks and hits allowed and strike-outs and do a quick mental calculation of his WHIP and strike-out to walk ratio.  If his ERA is impressive and these stats aren’t, chances it is an aberration and his ERA will rise and vice versa.  If you look at stats of someone like Alfonso Soriano, you realize that his quest to do the statistically impossibility and make his on-base percentage lower than his batting average completely devalues him and, although they have been criticized for their trade with the Nationals, the Rangers were very lucky to get what they did.  The Nationals GM, Jim Bowden, is the personification of old school and sub .500 teams and soon will be the personification of unemployed.

The next area of arbitrage I believe will be for productive outs and bases added without the benefit of hits or walks.  I think that stats that measure how many runners are productively advanced (i.e. Second to third with no outs instead of one out) during a season and net stolen bases for offensive players and passed balls and net stolen bases allowed for pitchers will seed arbitrage opportunities.  In any case, efficient markets theory will continue to dominate more and more of the front offices of major league baseball teams and I don’t expect the run on GMs who get carded to end anytime soon.

What’s up with the Yankees?

I know there the Yankees are touting that they lost $50-$75 million last year.  I don’t buy it, the YES network is bringing in huge revenue streams and the deal between the Yankees and YES is less than an “arms’ length” transaction, with all the money winding up in the same pocket.  How much King George opens that ####ket has little to do with economic reality.  So I personally find the Yankees inactivity this offseason somewhat surprising.

Based on history, we know that when George decides to take the backpage back, he would love to it at the expense of the Mets or, even better to him, the Red Sox.  The Nosemar to first base rumors may satisfy his Boggs, Clemens, Gooden, Strawberry desire to embarrass his rivals, but Garciaparra AM (after Mia) is just a shell of his former self and, I believe, will be an insignificant factor by season’s end. 

No, the splash that accomplishes many of George’s goals is signing Johnny Damon.  At once, the Yankees will clean up their centerfield situation, embarrass the Red Sox, allow them to bat Jeter second and move Rodriguez into an RBI spot in the order, hurt the Red Sox, expand his viewing audiences to girls who like guys that look like cavemen and did I say pick on the Red Sox?  The longer the Damon thing drags on, the more likely I believe it will happen.

As a Red Sox fan, I am actually okay with it.  Damon’s best production with the Bosox came as he reached his walk year, but I have no doubt that the team that signs him to a five year contract will be kicking themselves by the end of year three (In no way comparable to the disaster that was Rent-A-Wreck).  I think Damon will ultimately realize the potential dollars on the table if he can parlay his media savviness from the large market that is Boston to the colossal beast of a media market that is New York.

The biggest problem will be that the Red Sox will be completely naked at the two hardest everyday roles to fill in baseball today, center field and a lead-off hitter.  Without an answer for either of those, the Red Sox may have to pay Damon/Boras’ ransom.  If they are going to ultimately do it anyway, they should do it quick, before the Yankees realize they care.

Greg