I see an argument being addressed on which conference is the strongest and that the National Championship Game should help answer this question. The article, written by Jeff Svoboda of Scout.com, appears in today’s NCAA FB section on the Fox Sports web site, takes both sides of the question.
I personally don’t see the relevance of this in the least. Whether LSU or OSU wins that game doesn’t prove a thing concerning whether the Big Ten or the Southeastern Conference is stronger. The only accurate way to answer that question is to look at each conference’s members, how they each fared against the competition they each played, and finally (since everything boils down to the polls) how they are ranked according to the pollsters.
Given these criteria, here is how each team fared:
Big Ten…………………………………………Rankings
School………….Record……….SOS……Fox…..AP……BCS
Illinois……………9-3………...36.83…….12……13……..15
Indiana……………7-5………..72.75…….51……--.….…..--
Iowa………………6-6………..69.33….…65……--…..…..--
Michigan………….8-4………..54.25….…20……30……...--
Michigan State……7-5………..46.17….…31……--…..…..--
Minnesota………..1-11………..90.75….…97……--…..….--
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Northwestern……..6-6…………72.33……50……--…..….--
Ohio State……….11-1…………33.08…….2……..1….…..1
Penn State…………8-4…………51.50..…22……35…..…--
Purdue……………..7-5…………64.42…..52……--……...--
Wisconsin…………9-3………….51.58…..17……18…....18
Total……………..79-53
Average………7.18-4.82………..58.45….38.19
Non Con. Opponents…………….96.99
The Big Ten has five teams in the AP Top 35 and three in the BCS Top 25
As stated before, these rankings are based upon the USA Today/Coaches NCAA Preseason Top 50 football team rankings and are determined by taking each of these teams’ opponents rankings from the weekly AP top 25 Poll and the Fox Sports 119 ranking. So, if your team played X, Y, and Z and each was ranked as follows when each played your team: 45, 21, and 55, your Strength of Schedule (SOS) rating after three games would be (45+21+55) / 3 = 40.33. The lower the number, the tougher the schedule played.
The weighted H/A feature explained:
Since the lower number results in the higher ranking, the following system has been used-
Home win against Division 1A opponent – 0 points (There is no reward for this)
Home win against lower division opponent – +1 (These are not being rewarded, they actually result in a small penalty)
Home loss against Division 1A opponent – +2 (Home losses result in a large penalty)
Home loss against lower division opponent – +3 (Home losses against lower division = big penalty)
Road win against Division 1A opponent- -2 (Good reward)
Road win against lower division opponent- 0 points (There is no reward for this)
Road loss against Division 1A opponent- 0 points (There is no penalty for this)
Road win against lower division opponent- +1 (No glory in this. Small penalty)
These results are then multiplied by 3 across the board and totaled. Once the original SOS is determined, the home and away total is added in.
Example- 2007 Ohio State
Wk.__Date__Opponent_______Result____H/A Result
2 Sat., Sep 1 Youngstown State W 38-6 _____1
3 Sat., Sep 8 Akron__________W 20-2 _____0
4 Sat., Sep 15 @Washington__ W 33-14____-2
5 Sat., Sep 22 Northwestern___W 58-7_____ 0
6 Sat., Sep 29 @Minnesota____W 30-7____ -2
7 Sat., Oct 6 @Purdue________W 23-7 ____-2
8 Sat., Oct 13 Kent State______W 48-3 ____ 0
9 Sat., Oct 20 Michigan State__W 24-17____0
10 Sat., Oct 27 @Penn State___W 37-17___-2
11 Sat. Nov. 3 Wisconsin_____W 38-17____0
12 Sat. Nov. 10 Illinois_______L 28-21____2
13 Sat. Nov. 17 @Michigan___W 14-3____-2
Total multiplied by three_______________-21.00
Added to normal SOS rating___________ +54.08
New Ohio State SOS H/A rating_________33.08
This process was carried out across all 120 Division 1A teams.
Here is the Final SOS Top 25, once again, I’m now basing this on the BCS Top 25, rearranged using each team’s win / loss record , Strength of Schedule, and H/A:
Rank____Team________SOS__W___L
1___Hawaii _________ 72.75__12___0
2___ Ohio State_______33.08__11___1
3___Kansas__________55.50__11___1
4___ USC ___________19.67__10___2
5___LSU____________20.23__11___2
6___ Oklahoma_______28.54__11___2
7___West Virginia____ 30.92__10___1
8___Arizona St. ______31.08__10___2
9___Virginia Tech_____34.62__11___2
10__Missouri_________36.62__11___2
11__ Georgia_________ 39.83__10___2
12__ Brigham Young___48.50__10___2
13__Boise State _______66.50__10___2
14__Boston College____36.15__10___3
15__Illinois__________ 36.83___9___3
16__Virginia_________ 40.33___9___3
17__Florida __________40.75___9___3
18__Clemson_________44.33___9___3
19__South Florida_____47.00___9___3
20__Texas __________51.50___9___3
21__Wisconsin_______51.58___9___3
22__Connecticut______52.42___9___3
23__Cincinnati _______53.83___9___3
24__Tennessee _______32.92___9___4
25__Auburn _________54.17___8___4
The Top 25 BCS teams ranked strictly on SOS and H/A:
SOS__BCS
Rank_Rank___Team_______SOS__W___L
1_____7 ____ USC _______19.67__10__2
2_____2_____LSU _______30.64__11__2
3_____4___Oklahoma_____28.54__11__2
4_____9__ West Virginia__ 30.92__10__2
5____11__Arizona State___ 31.08__10__2
6____16___Tennessee_____32.92__ 9__4
7_____1___Ohio State_____33.08__11__1
8_____3__Virginia Tech___34.62 __11__2
9____14__Boston College__36.15 __10__3
10____6___Missouri______36.62___11__2
11___13____Illinois ______36.83___ 9__3
12____5___Georgia_______39.83 __10__2
13___20___Virginia_______40.33___9__3
14___12___Florida________40.75___9__3
15___15___Clemson______ 44.33___9__3
16___21__South Florida ___47.00___9__2
17___17_____BYU_______48.50__10__2
18___19____Texas _______51.50___9__3
19___18___Wisconsin_____51.58 __9__3
20___25___Connecticut ___52.42___9__3
21___22___Cincinnati_____53.83___9__3
22___23____Auburn______54.17___8__4
23____8____Kansas ______55.50__11__1
24___24__Boise State_____ 66.50__10__2
25___12___ Hawaii _______72.75__12__0
It’s interesting how the original number 1 and number 2 teams in the polls, after a long season, have attained the exact same rankings when SOS and the Home/Away reward system is in place. In addition, Hawaii runs from number 1 when the SOS consideration is included with the team’s record to dead last when SOS plays the primary determining factor.
Following are the Conference by Conference rankings based upon strength of schedule:
First, the conference average SOS ranking using all games played to date:
Rank___Conference_______________SOS
1______PAC-10__________________46.07
2______ACC____________________ 50.53
3______SEC____________________ 50.83
4______BIG XII_________________ 54.58
5______BIG Ten_________________ 58.45
6______BIG East_________________59.62
7______Mountain West____________69.36
8______Western Athletic__________ 82.77
9______Sun Belt_________________84.75
10_____ Conference USA _________89.09
11_____ Mid-America____________ 90.19
12_____Independents_____________91.79
The PAC-10 clearly played the toughest set of opponents in 2007. The ACC surpassed the SEC for second thanks to the lower division schools played by SEC conference members late in the season…
Second, the conference average SOS ranking using only the non-conference games played to date:
Rank___Conference_______________SOS
1______Sun Belt _________________51.28
2______PAC-10__________________68.88
3______Mid-America _____________69.88
4______ACC____________________70.00
5______Mountain West ___________ 72.05
6______Conference USA__________ 72.67
7______Western Athletic __________80.73
8______BIG East________________ 86.85
9______BIG XII_________________87.31
10_____SEC____________________89.10
11_____Independents_____________91.79
12_____ BIG Ten _______________ 96.99
Like it or not, the above ranking displays which conference plays strong non-conference opponents. If each division of schools within the NCAA would just schedule and play only schools from within their divisions, this ranking, with a 45 point spread, would narrow down considerably.
Third, the conference average SOS ranking using only the in-conference games played to date:
Rank___Conference_______________SOS
1______SEC_____________________32.90
2______PAC-10__________________34.40
3______BIG XII _________________36.19
4______BIG East ________________ 38.71
5______BIG Ten_________________ 40.35
6______ACC ____________________41.28
7______Mountain West____________67.36
8______Western Athletic __________ 83.44
9______Independents_____________ 91.79
10_____Conference USA__________ 95.19
11_____Mid-America____________ 102.05
12_____Sun Belt ________________107.72
Note: Independents include Army, Navy, Notre Dame, and Western Kentucky. Since they are not affiliated with a conference, you’ll notice the same SOS figure given in each ranking.
The big six conferences continue to show well in the third comparison that indicates each conference’s in-house strength. The SEC ended up in first here indicating they are the strongest conference according to the pollsters.
Here are the BCS Bowl games and the indicated favorite using this system:
Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma University Sooners 28.54 vs. West Virginia University Mountaineers 30.92
Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech University Hokies 34.62 vs. University of Kansas Jayhawks 55.50
Rose Bowl
University of Southern California Trojans 19.67 vs. University of Illinois Fighting Illini 36.83
Sugar Bowl
University of Georgia Bulldogs 39.83 vs. University of Hawaii Warriors 72.75
National Championship Game
Louisiana State University Tigers 20.23 vs. Ohio State University Buckeyes 33.08
I hope you have enjoyed the 2007 Strength of Schedule Rankings.
It's been a great year in college football. Everyone have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
If you have a particular team that you'd like to see the SOS on, just ask, I'll try to oblige.
I have been tracking the penalties called in games involving the NCAA Top ranked 25 teams on a weekly basis since the beginning of the 2007 season. I attributed the referee squad in each game to be from each home team’s conference unless otherwise stipulated. I then broke the penalties called in these Top 25 games into a set of eight categories. First, there are two major categories, those being all games played and then those played where the game was decided by ten points or less. These major categories were then broken into the two most obvious subcategories, home team and away team. Finally, I further broke the information into conference and non-conference games.
The six major BCS conferences were scrutinized and then rated by category. First, each of the major conferences hosted the following number of games where Top 25 teams were involved:
Once again, the PAC-10 proves to have the hardest officiating on visiting teams, especially when the games are close. (73.33% on non-conference teams!)
Remember also, this is being studied when instant replay has made it possible to monitor the officiating with the possibility of having poor calls overturned by review.
I would have thought that over the course of a long season, the penalties between home and road teams would even out. I am not surprised to see 52 verses 48% type numbers, but 60 verses 40% in favor of the home team is beyond fair and leads one to believe that officials are not being impartial. Conversely, if the numbers are reversed, then I have to wonder if the competition is so poorly matched that something is being done to make the game appear to be more competitive.
The bottom line in all of this is that it is little wonder many schools are reluctant to schedule road games when officiating such as this can be expected.
Earlier this year I read with interest that the ACC was running an analysis of their officiating in an effort to become more professional. Here’s hoping their work yields higher quality officiating and the other conferences follow their lead.
I keep hearing about how a team that isn’t included in the various pre-season polls has a difficult time making it into a high poll ranking while the teams that are included pre-season seem to stay in the polls even when they suffer as many losses or more than other teams. Based on this premise, I put together the following information that displays the original top 25 (based upon the USA Today poll) and what those teams highest ranking has been during the season, their lowest ranking and their current ranking by the AP and then by the BCS polls (switched to BCS once that poll became available). As new teams were added to the top 25 they appear below the original group. In addition, the column on the far right is each team’s Strength of Schedule Rating through this week’s games using the time honored Eye of the Storm methodology.
West Virginia___ 3_______________3____________ 9-1
Texas__________4______________ 13____________9-2
Florida ________6_______________12____________8-3
Oklahoma______8_______________10____________9-2
Virginia Tech___9________________8____________9-2
Ohio State_____10________________5___________11-1
Georgia_______13________________7____________9- 2
Hawaii________23_______________15___________10- 0
Twenty teams that were not part of the original Top 25 teams have made an appearance on the board. The most notable being Kansas which was left off the Top 25 for the first six weeks of the season and have now reached the unenviable perch at number two. Other notable late arrivals on the Top 25 include #4 Missouri, #6 Arizona State, #9 Oregon, #16 Virginia, and #17 Illinois.
I have to wonder about the argument that the teams that start at the top of the polls are entrenched there. Seems to me several teams that weren’t initially considered have climbed to the heights.
FOX, as well as ESPN, CBS, the sporting press, and so on are lovin it! The writers and reporters from across the nation are all standing around a big caldron known as Division 1 College Football and each has a large spoon. They are whipping up the 2007 concoction known as the BCS process. Everyone seems to have their own agenda and that leads to speculation about everything from conspiracies to ‘what abouts’ and ultimately to utter frustration.
This is the unbiased look at one function that a lot of the pundits and fans don’t care to hear about as it detracts from their argument. It’s just for that reason that it needs to be disclosed since Strength of Schedule should play a large, if not huge, role in the final decision.
As stated before, these rankings are based upon the USA Today/Coaches NCAA Preseason Top 50 football team rankings and are determined by taking each of these teams’ opponents rankings from the weekly AP top 25 Poll and the Fox Sports 119 ranking. So, if your team played X, Y, and Z and each was ranked as follows when each played your team: 45, 21, and 55, your Strength of Schedule (SOS) rating after three games would be (45+21+55) / 3 = 40.33. The lower the number, the tougher the schedule played.
The weighted H/A feature explained:
Since the lower number results in the higher ranking, the following system has been used-
Home win against Division 1A opponent – 0 points (There is no reward for this)
Home win against lower division opponent – 1 (These are not being rewarded, they actually result in a small penalty)
Home loss against Division 1A opponent – 2 (Home losses result in a large penalty)
Home loss against lower division opponent – 3 (Home losses against lower division = big penalty)
Road win against Division 1A opponent- -2 (Good reward)
Road win against lower division opponent- 0 points (There is no reward for this)
Road loss against Division 1A opponent- 0 points (There is no penalty for this)
Road win against lower division opponent- 1 (No glory in this. Small penalty)
These results are then multiplied by 3 across the board and totaled. Once the original SOS is determined, the home and away total is added in.
Example- 2007 Ohio State
Wk.__Date__Opponent_______Result____H/A Result
2 Sat., Sep 1 Youngstown State W 38-6 _____1
3 Sat., Sep 8 Akron__________W 20-2 _____0
4 Sat., Sep 15 @Washington__ W 33-14____-2
5 Sat., Sep 22 Northwestern___W 58-7_____ 0
6 Sat., Sep 29 @Minnesota____W 30-7____ -2
7 Sat., Oct 6 @Purdue________W 23-7 ____-2
8 Sat., Oct 13 Kent State______W 48-3 ____ 0
9 Sat., Oct 20 Michigan State__W 24-17____0
10 Sat., Oct 27 @Penn State___W 37-17___-2
11 Sat. Nov. 3 Wisconsin_____W 38-17____0
12 Sat. Nov. 10 Illinois_______L 28-21_____2
Total multiplied by three_______________-15.00
Added to normal SOS rating___________ +54.08
New Ohio State SOS H/A rating_________39.08
This process was carried out across all 120 Division 1A teams.
Here is the weekly SOS Top 25, once again, I’m now basing this on the BCS Top 25, rearranged using each team’s Strength of Schedule, H/A, and win / loss record:
Rank____Team________SOS__W___L
1___Kansas _________ 55.55__10___0
2___Hawaii _________ 89.10 __ 9___0
3___Oregon__________25.00___8___1
4___ LSU ___________30.64___9___1
5___West Virginia ____33.50___8___1
6___Arizona State_____35.20___9___1
7___Ohio State _______39.08__10___1
8___Oklahoma _______39.91___9___1
9___Missouri ________47.36___9___1
10__Boise State_______72.55___9___1
11__USC____________29.80___8___2
12__Virginia ________ 38.62___9___2
13__Boston College ___45.36___8___2
14__Clemson ________46.73___8___2
15__Georgia_________ 46.82___8___2
16__Virginia Tech_____47.73___8___2
17__Cincinnati________51.27__ 8___2
18__Texas___________53.27___9___2
19__Connecticut______57.73___8___2
20__Tennessee _______36.18___7___3
21__Illinois__________36.83___8___3
22__Florida__________42.27___7___3
23__Michigan________48.50___8___3
24__Kentucky _______50.09___7___3
25__Wisconsin_______57.58___8___3
If you want to simply point at the Jayhawks undefeated record, then, by right, Hawaii must be included here. This is a match-up that we'll never see.
The Top 25 BCS teams ranked strictly on SOS and H/A:
SOS__BCS
Rank_Rank___Team_______SOS__W___L
1_____2_____Oregon______25.00__8___1
2____ 11 ____ USC _______29.80 __8___2
3_____1__ ___LSU _______30.64__9___1
4_____6__ West Virginia___33.50__8___1
5_____8__Arizona State____35.20__9___1
6____20___Tennessee _____36.18__ 7___3
7____19___Illinois________36.83 __8___3
8____14___Virginia_______38.64 __8___2
9_____7__ Ohio State______39.08__10___1
10____4__Oklahoma_______39.91___9___1
11___12____Florida_______42.27___7___3
12___17__Boston College__45.36___8___2
13___15___Clemson______46.73___8___2
14____9___Georgia_______46.82___8___2
15____5___Missouri ______47.36___9___1
16___10__Virginia Tech ___47.73___8___2
17___21___Michigan _____48.25___8___3
18___23___Kentucky_____50.09___7___3
19___22___Cincinnati_____51.27 __8___2
20___13____Texas _______53.27___9___2
21____3____Kansas_______55.55__10___0
22___25____Wisconsin____57.58___8___3
23___24__Connecticut_____57.73___8___2
24___18__Boise State______72.55___9___1
25___16___ Hawaii _______89.10___9___0
The straight up SOS of the BCS Top 25 this week leads to a match-up that simply won’t happen thanks to LSU taking on Louisiana Tech late in the season. With USC out of the mix for obvious reasons, the Oregon – LSU match-up continues to be indicated.
This volatile season continues this evening with a very tough test for the Ducks. This whole process could very easily be turned upside down. Another school that has an outside chance of making it to the big dance that we're not hearing too much about is West Virginia. The Mountaineers are riding along at 6th in the BCS and fourth in the SOS. Stranger things can happen.
Okay, Big 12 (XII?) fans… I hear the discussions now coming to the forefront that your teams deserve to be ranked higher than Oregon. If you’d like to analyze your team’s schedules and records verses the Oregon Ducks and continue with your argument, here ya go.
By the way, all four of these schools’ strength of schedule actually get worse when looking at their opponents’ current rankings as opposed to the rankings those teams had at the time that the games were played. The quick view is as follows:
I know you guys are passionate about your schools and their teams, and rightfully so, but isn’t this where the rubber meets the road?
I’m not a fan of any of these teams. I don't believe its arguable, after assessing the quality of the competition, that Oregon clearly deserves their current BCS ranking.
*Southeastern Louisiana is a Division 1-AA team that was not ranked in the FCS Poll of 52 1-AA teams. It was the assigned the ranking of 177 by adding 120 and 56 (the number of teams mentioned in the FCS Poll rankings) and adding one more to the total. The team is unranked in the most recent FCS Poll.
Illinois State is a Division 1-AA team ranked number 14 in the FCS Poll at the time of this game. Ranking here is 1-A 120 plus 1-AA 14 equals 134. The team is unranked in the most recent FCS Poll.
Take a look at the opponents these teams have played, where the games were played, and the scores of those games. Is it any wonder the pollsters are having a tough time putting Kansas on top of the polls? If the Jayhawks, LSU Tigers, and Oregon Ducks all win out, do you truly believe the Jayhawks deserve to play for the national title? The Sooners? Missouri?
I've been around a few years and would like to make some observations about the status of sports in America. These comments may not appear flattering to some, but that's the way it goes. I do not tolerate unfairness. If you can't be successful on an even playing field then what's the point? I try to see through hype and look for what is right. My favorite teams may not be the ones with the most wins. They are the ones with the most wins playing in a tough, fair manner against competitors that are the same. I truly believe that what goes around comes around. Where does your team fall?