Golden State at Dallas

A compelling first-round match up with a perfect subplot; Don Nelson couldn’t have picked a better team to meet.  The Warriors play at a faster pace than Dallas is geared for at this point, and smallball will make it difficult for Diop or Dampier to play significant minutes.  Watch out for the Mavericks tiring in the 4th quarter if they are forced to keep a Harris-Terry-Stackhouse-Howard-Dirk lineup on the floor with little rest. 

Still, the Mavericks’ D is an obvious advantage and the Warriors will struggle in close games unless Davis plays like the superstar he can occasionally be. 

Mavs in 6.

 

LA Lakers at Phoenix

While ABC did backflips once they saw this matchup, it’s unlikely to live up to last year’s series.  Phoenix was so shorthanded up front last year that Kwame Brown seemingly became a star – that won’t be the case with Amare back to being a wrecking crew in the paint.  The Lakers collapsed late in last year’s series when Kobe began taking the wealth of the shots and that’s the form LA is entering with this year.  Scoring 50 is simply not enough against a team that pours 115-point games out like water.

Suns in 5.

 

Denver at San Antonio

Expected to emulate the surge that took place when George Karl joined the team a couple years ago, the Iverson-infused Nuggets have been a malfunctioning unit.  Steve Blake has helped as a facilitator, as Carmelo and Iverson haven’t found a way to fully mesh, but his defense limitations are painful.  This team allows opponents to break 100 an alarming amount of the time, and that can be a death sentence in the playoffs.

Spurs in 4.

 

Utah at Houston

Sloan vs. Van Gundy is a battle of like minds, and the teams have staggered advantages.  Utah’s high pick & roll with outside shooting bigs will be major trouble for Houston’s defense.  The Jazz will be hard pressed to stop McGrady at the 2.  The Jazz are effective at denying Yao Ming the ball with their double teams.  Houston’s homecourt may make a difference. 

Rockets in 7.

 

Orlando at Detroit

Until Dwight Howard realizes he must look to demolish every opponent, every night, the Magic will come up short.  Detroit’s frontcourt should be able to tag team him into relative submission and their backcourt will take care of the rest.

Pistons in 4.

 

Washington at Cleveland

There really isn’t much to say here.  Without Arenas and Butler, the Wizards are toast.

Cavs in 4.

 

New Jersey at Toronto

Vince Carter has shown in his career that motivation makes a major difference in his effort level.  This series has him auditioning for a new contract and pseudo-revenge against the franchise that he knifed in the back.  I’d expect him to toss in more than a couple 40-point games unless the young Raptors start getting physical.  As much as I love the matchup nightmares they create with their 3 combo guards and 4 combo forwards (Garbajosa was #5), I’m concerned that if they are rattled or get down in the series they may not be mentally tough enough to rebound. 

Nets in 6.

 

Miami at Chicago

Like with the Lakers, ABC and fairweather fans are far too pumped up about the Heat.  The Bulls have given Miami a hard time in the playoffs the last two years and have the personnel to (somewhat) check Shaq and Wade.  The Heat have looked troubled all year, between veteran apathy, and an over-reliance on scoring from Wade or Shaq.   Still, it’s always dangerous betting against a champion. 

Bulls in 7.