First, let me do what everyone wants to do, but no one does:
Let’s not even bother talking much at all about Atlanta,
Philadelphia, Washington, Denver, or Houston.
If any of these teams were to get so far as their respective Conference
Finals, it would be the biggest story of the NBA season – and that would be
saying something. The Hawks and Sixers
may be putting a future together, but they are losing teams that would never
make the postseason in a varsity conference.
Washington and Denver are fatally flawed teams, lacking true point guard
(and thus, team) play and get through the regular season dependent on
individuals scoring on their own.
Houston has no reliable offense with Yao Ming out of the mix, dependent
on rookie Luis Scola and the enigmatic and contact-allergic Tracy McGrady. So, the non-shots taken care of, let’s
move on to the teams that matter this spring.
The Raptors dodged the ax of the above paragraph by a nose,
because their interchangeable depth draws my attention. It’s tough to run into matchup problems when
most of your rotation can play multiple positions. Bosh and Calderon give them a contender’s staple of a big-small
pairing, they can draw from last spring’s experience, and they drew a good team
in Orlando since this Magic squad is not playoff-honed (swept by the Pistons
last year). The major downsides are
that they will be missing do-everything forward Garbajosa (injury) and undervalued
Mo Peterson (left via free agency), they lack ruggedness on the inside, and
they remain an inconsistent offense dependent on streaky perimeter shooting.
Orlando, as noted above, is still a team of puppies in the
NBA postseason. They are armed with the
most promising young big in the league (sorry, Amare), but no one on the roster
will intimidate their man most nights.
Hedo Turkoglu has taken full advantage of Grant Hill’s departure and is
performing beyond the highest expectations anyone had from his Sacramento days. The Magic’s depth drops quickly, their
coaching is only fair, and they are unlikely to impose their will on the
defensive end of the court.
Did Dallas found itself in the final week of the season, or
are they at the end of their window as postseason movers and shakers? The team was shaky before the Kidd trade, limp
after, and are now facing a high-octane Hornets team.
Jason Kidd gives them the leadership that Dirk has not provided in the
past few springs, but he may be a liability on defense in any Western matchup
other than the Lakers and Rockets.
Jerry Stackhouse has taken a step back in each of his years as a
Maverick and is no longer a major threat to go off from night to night. Nowitzki and Josh Howard remain a potent
forward tandem for any team to contain, with only the Lakers well-equipped to
match up with both of them at the same time.
Utah is as loaded with talent as they’ve been since the
Malone days, and Sloan has shed the roster of nearly all players that would
buck his regimented systems. Utah can
boast one of the most consistent teams in the league and are among the best in
execution. What they lack an
athleticism at the 2 and 5, they make up for in hard nosed effort. They can struggle staying in front of elite
shooting guards (Bryant, McGrady, Ginobili, Iverson), but they may have the
most deadly outside shooting rotation feasting off the Deron Williams-Carlos
Boozer pick and rolls.
Cleveland has LeBron James, and LeBron James may be the
single best player in these playoffs, even if you consider Kobe Bryant. After his one-man dismantling of Detroit
last year, no one can claim that his supporting cast will be his downfall. At the same time, claims that Ben Wallace,
Wally Sczerbiak, Joe Smith, and Delonte West make this team significantly better are equally
dubious.
New Orleans was nothing short of fantastic this year, with
Chris Paul making the leap to All-NBA status and beyond. The only downside to his overall brilliance
has been how he’s kept David West completely anonymous. The Hornets have virtually no holes in their
lineup and play with passion most nights.
Their lack of postseason experience and anemic home crowds are the only
things holding them back from true contender status.
San Antonio is the defending champion, making it foolish to
write them off. Most years, they’ve
shown an impressive ability to add an extra gear in the playoffs, and they are
annually one of the best coached teams in the league. Unfortunately, they’ve pulled a nightmare first round matchup
this spring in Phoenix. The Suns are
uniquely armed to handle San Antonio, by Steve Kerr’s intentional design. Shaq has held a career-long grudge toward
San Antonio, stemming from his upbringing in the city and perceived snub by
then-Spur David Robinson, and has repeatedly taken this out on the Spurs. The only significant advantage the Spurs
have to exploit is at the 2-guard position, so it is imperative for Ginobili to
work over Raja Bell and break down the Suns defense.
The Lakers may very well be worthy of the contender talk
they are receiving, and are clicking on all cylinders going into their first
round matchup against the defensively-challenged Nuggets. Gasol’s instantaneous meshing within the
triangle may be the quickest any vet has integrated the offense – Karl Malone
and Gary Payton never became comfortable with the system. If Bynum returns, he won’t be the
double-double machine that he had developed into this past fall. The Achilles’ Heel of Los Angeles is their
defense at the 1 and 5 spots.
Penetrating guards have feasted on the Lakers all year.
The Celtics are the other darlings of this NBA season, and
rightly so. Any time a storied franchise
is resuscitated by spirit, camaraderie, and passionate team play, it is great
for the sport. The only thing to gripe
about is they provide even more fodder for the insufferable Boston sport fan to boast
with. The Celtics are high powered at
the 2, 3, and 4 and the chemistry has boosted the point guards, bench, and
centers from adequate to solid. They
have the look of champions, but I only have one reservation about their
chances.
That reservation would be the Detroit Pistons. As much as the Celtics are the team that the
nation wants to see win, the Pistons are a significant hurdle for them to get
past. Detroit matches up extremely well
against them: Rasheed has made life tough for Garnett his whole career,
Hamilton and Prince counter Allen and Pierce somewhat, and Billups is at a major
advantage over Rondo. The Pistons are
steeled through years of playoffs as a unit, and are always at their best when they
feel dismissed as underdogs.
The Phoenix Suns, however, are my gut choice as champions
this year. Prior to the Shaq trade,
they were a team wallowing in chemistry issues and unfocused effort. Immediately following the trade, they were
mocked as they lost 7 of 10. They’ve
righted the ship, but don’t appear to be a true juggernaught. That said, I believe they landed the best
possible playoff path they could hope for.
As noted, SA brings out the best in Shaq, and they’ve beaten them both
times they’ve met since O’Neal joined on.
They would follow that matchup against the winner of the NO-Dal series,
in which they would hope to face Kidd and Nowitzki rather than Paul and a
balanced frontcourt. A Lakers-Suns
Conference Final would certainly bring out the best in O’Neal, and their
significant advantages at the point and center positions would be extremely
difficult for LA to overcome. Should
they meet either Detroit or Boston in the Finals, the O’Neal-Stoudamire tandem
would again be a major nightmare for the opponent defense.
To get through Detroit’s thorny brush of a defense, Orlando
needs a more aggressive Dwight Howard and a more potent supporting cast. In other words, a couple of offseasons.
Cleveland 1-0 on Washington
I have many friends in the DC area, and so my heart goes out
to them as the Wizards face a likely sweep.
The only chance they have at extra games is Cleveland’s tendency to play
down to their level.
Toronto and New Jersey tied 1-1
Toronto needs to maintain a mental edge in this series to
combat the experience and resolve of the Nets.
Losing Game 1 was devastating, but Game 2 showed that the Raptors might
have enough will to take this series.
On the other hand, they were a little too excited after winning a game
at home for a high seed.
Chicago 2-0 on Miami
Miami still can’t be counted out, but they simply did not
even have stretches of dominance against the Bulls. Deng and Nocioni continue
to shine a light on the Heat’s weakness at the 3, and Dwayne Wade isn’t himself
at all. With the rest of the Heat
looking lackluster, Shaq may need to breathe fire in the locker room more than
he needs to raise his game on the court.
Dallas down 0-1 to Golden State
Of all the early upsets, I think this one possesses the
greatest concern for the stunned favorite.
I’m not saying that Dallas will lose the series, but the Warriors are
going to be exceedingly difficult for them to handle. This goes much deeper than Nelson’s inside knowledge and presumed
personal stakes. With the Warriors’
style forcing Johnson to leave Dampier (and Diop) on the bench, Dallas’
rotation shortens, and that makes it far more difficult to keep up with the
Golden State high speed game. This
Dallas team simply isn’t the young and speedy roster it was a couple years ago
and the Warriors are quicker at almost every position. Additionally, Dirk has got to find a way to
impose his will in these playoffs. They
simply are not going to compete for the championship if he continues to shrivel.
Phoenix up 2-0 on the Lakers
While the Lakers should prevent the sweep at home, it’s
crystal clear that they are as outmatched as their mediocre regular season
would indicate. Phil Jackson has
suggested that Kobe’s knees are still affecting him on defense, and that end of
the court is where they are simply being abused. There are also rumblings that the locker room has become fairly
sour, with Smush Parker being referred to as a cancer quite a bit. Either way, it seems inevitable that LA’s season
will end soon.
San Antonio down 1-0 to Denver
I don’t sense an awful lot of trouble here for the Spurs, if
only because they’ve routinely taken 6-7 games to knock out opponents in the
past few years, even in the early rounds.
Carmelo and Iverson are clear mismatches for them, but Duncan can be an
equalizer in any of these games.
Houston up 2-0 on Utah
The first two games have been defensive onslaughts that were
tough to watch. In each, it was a
contest to see who could go on a small run first. Both times, it was the Rockets, despite Carlos Boozer showing
that he might be the lone star in the series able to rack up big numbers. Deron Williams has had difficulty getting
into the paint, which is a must for this Jazz offense. Kirilenko might not be able to get himself
together, but Okur could still prove to be a deciding X-factor in Salt Lake.
A compelling first-round match up with a perfect subplot;
Don Nelson couldn’t have picked a better team to meet. The Warriors play at a faster pace than
Dallas is geared for at this point, and smallball will make it difficult for
Diop or Dampier to play significant minutes.
Watch out for the Mavericks tiring in the 4th quarter if they
are forced to keep a Harris-Terry-Stackhouse-Howard-Dirk lineup on the floor
with little rest.
Still, the Mavericks’ D is an obvious advantage and the
Warriors will struggle in close games unless Davis plays like the superstar he
can occasionally be.
Mavs in 6.
LA Lakers at Phoenix
While ABC did backflips once they saw this matchup, it’s
unlikely to live up to last year’s series.
Phoenix was so shorthanded up front last year that Kwame Brown seemingly
became a star – that won’t be the case with Amare back to being a wrecking crew
in the paint. The Lakers collapsed late
in last year’s series when Kobe began taking the wealth of the shots and that’s
the form LA is entering with this year.
Scoring 50 is simply not enough against a team that pours 115-point
games out like water.
Suns in 5.
Denver at San Antonio
Expected to emulate the surge that took place when George
Karl joined the team a couple years ago, the Iverson-infused Nuggets have been
a malfunctioning unit. Steve Blake has
helped as a facilitator, as Carmelo and Iverson haven’t found a way to fully
mesh, but his defense limitations are painful.
This team allows opponents to break 100 an alarming amount of the time,
and that can be a death sentence in the playoffs.
Spurs in 4.
Utah at Houston
Sloan vs. Van Gundy is a battle of like minds, and the teams
have staggered advantages. Utah’s high
pick & roll with outside shooting bigs will be major trouble for Houston’s
defense. The Jazz will be hard pressed
to stop McGrady at the 2. The Jazz are
effective at denying Yao Ming the ball with their double teams. Houston’s homecourt may make a
difference.
Rockets in 7.
Orlando at Detroit
Until Dwight Howard realizes he must look to demolish every
opponent, every night, the Magic will come up short. Detroit’s frontcourt should be able to tag team him into relative
submission and their backcourt will take care of the rest.
Pistons in 4.
Washington at Cleveland
There really isn’t much to say here. Without Arenas and Butler, the Wizards are
toast.
Cavs in 4.
New Jersey at Toronto
Vince Carter has shown in his career that motivation makes a
major difference in his effort level.
This series has him auditioning for a new contract and pseudo-revenge
against the franchise that he knifed in the back. I’d expect him to toss in more than a couple 40-point games
unless the young Raptors start getting physical. As much as I love the matchup nightmares they create with their 3
combo guards and 4 combo forwards (Garbajosa was #5), I’m concerned that if
they are rattled or get down in the series they may not be mentally tough
enough to rebound.
Nets in 6.
Miami at Chicago
Like with the Lakers, ABC and fairweather fans are far too
pumped up about the Heat. The Bulls
have given Miami a hard time in the playoffs the last two years and have the
personnel to (somewhat) check Shaq and Wade.
The Heat have looked troubled all year, between veteran apathy, and an
over-reliance on scoring from Wade or Shaq.
Still, it’s always dangerous betting against a champion.
I’m a stats guy in general, and have my only goofy equation
for looking at candidates for MVP. I
fully agree with everyone that says that stats aren’t everything, however, too
often MVP candidates are awarded loosely to guys that don’t actually deserve
them (see Karl Malone’s lifetime achievement award in the late 90s). Still, there are tangibles and intangibles –
Steve Nash is deservedly a MVP winner without too many tangibles to point
to. I heavily weight team winning
percentage in part to help take care of this, but again, I use this more to get
a general feel of the field.
The equation:
[(PPG *
consistency * PPS) + RPG + APG –TOPG] * Team Win % w/player * % games played
Where consistency = % of games that player scores within 30%
of his average.
(you know, nothing complicated)
For Kobe, the numbers would look like this:
[(30.8 ppg * 53/66 games * 1.41 PPS) + 5.8 RPG + 5.4 APG –
3.4 TOPG] * (35 wins/66 games Kobe played) * (66/71 games played) = 21.0
Two years ago, I felt that Dwayne Wade was overlooked, and
last year I felt that Chauncey Billups was terribly overlooked. Looking at what the numbers show me this
year.
Kobe Bryant:
21.0 (Lakers winning only 53% of games he plays in hurts his case)
Steve Nash: 23.6 (boosted
by assist numbers and a gaudy 80% winning percentage with him playing)
Dirk Nowitzki: 33.7
(Mavs won 83% of the games he played - he missed only 1)
Tim Duncan: 24.8
Dwyane Wade: 16.8 (low
winning percentage with Wade plus 24 missed games)
LeBron James: 21.1
Chauncey Billups:
15.2 (injury-plagued off-year)
Again, these stats aren’t meant to be a BCS-like
champion generator. Just factoring in
as many of the measurable factors reasonable to add to the debate. Scoring, Rebounding, and Assists. Factor in the number of off nights, missed
games, and winning percentage with the player.
Scoring efficiency and ability to take care of the ball. Dirk benefits greatly in this equation by
having good stats and a dominating winning percentage. It’s all just food for thought.
Mavericks: They are the league’s deepest team, they
have gelled over the past two seasons, and they have thoroughly dominated the
regular season. There’s little you can
say in the way of cons, but Dirk Nowitzki’s disappearing act in their recent
loss to the Suns harkens memories of last year. If he continues to shrink in the clutch, they won’t take the
title.
Suns: In my opinion, this is the most dangerous
team in the league. Amare Stoudamire
has rounded back into form and Nash has completely silenced any doubters of his
MVP awards. The Suns face nearly every
Western Conference playoff team in the final weeks of the regular season, and
this would be the right time to send a message.
Spurs:The Spurs are the embodiment of the aging
vet: their experience and moxy are making up for lost athleticism and
explosiveness. They certainly know how
to get things done and no team has been as professional or workmanlike in the
past decade as this one. That said,
they have (or will have) lost or tied the regular season series against the
Lakers, Rockets, Jazz, and Mavs. More
teams than normal may believe they can beat the Spurs this spring.
Dark
Horses:
Miami: With Wade out with a separated shoulder,
it’snice to get one more glimpse of the Diesel, even if it just proves
that Shaq intentionally plays the regular season with 70% effort if he can get
away with it. If there’s been a notable
issue with him, it’s that his loss of quickness has led to extra fouls on the
defensive end. Since the loss of Wade,
Shaq’s been averaging just about 4 fouls/game.
He hasn’t been disqualified yet, but it could become a problem if he has
to sit early in first round games. He
also has not rebounded in double figures since March 1st, a string
of 11 games, and his blocks/game have plummeted to less than 1 per game since
Wade went down. It’s possible that Shaq
is simply redirecting his energies from the defensive side of the ball to
trying to make up the scoring deficit Flash left behind. At this point, I would not expect Wade to
return and save the day for Miami; his fearless style of play is not as likely
to return to the court this spring.
Detroit: Similar to Shaq playing with some effort again, Chris
Webber has lifted the Pistons almost as much as his former Washingon
teammate/rival Rasheed Wallace did a few years back. Webber’s talent for facilitating the offense from post spots has
done wonders for Detroit. He is still a
defensive liability, but it is much easier for him to hide and play position
defense with this frontcourt than it was in Philly. This team is not as strong as it has been in previous years, but
is a dangerous and experienced unit capable of knocking out anyone in the East
if Chauncey Billups manages to heal up.
Houston: Finally able to pair Yao Ming and Tracy
McGrady together, the Rockets hope to find another gear at the perfect time of
the season to do so. The defense has
been thorny for opponents not residing in Arizona, and the offense has been
capable most nights. One interesting
question is whether McGrady or Yao will be as assertive with each other on the
court as they become when one is injured.
Both have tendencies to overly defer to others when the team is at full
health.
Playoff
Fodder:
Jazz: Despite
Andrei Kirilenko’s nightmarish season, the Jazz have recovered from a brief
winter slump to find themselves firmly entrenched as the Northwest Division
champs. Boozer and Deron Williams have
found a groove and have the offense cruising in the right direction. Is their defense up to the challenge? Phoenix is the only other team in the West
top 5 that gives as many points as Utah.
A regular season-ending game will be played between Utah and Houston to
serve as a preview of their expected first round series.
Cavs: When I size up Team James, I see the
same things that doomed Texas in the tournament: a transcendent do-everything
forward surrounded by a less than stellar supporting cast. Larry Hughes has failed to become the second
star Danny Ferry envisioned, Ilgauskas is tumbling down the hill, and the point
guard situation remains a complete liability.
The ability to run an offense efficiently is critical in the postseason,
and I have serious doubts about this possible #2 seed making it out of the
conference playing LeBron 1-on-5.
Lakers: The
cries are increasing for Kobe to receive his first MVP, including a terrible
opinion piece by Jemele Hill claiming that Kobe has surpassed Jordan on the
court. I just can’t agree with handing
the MVP to someone who can’t get his team at least 50 wins, no matter the
scoring average. That said, this is not
a team to underestimate in the playoffs.
The Spurs shouldn’t be excited about the thought of matching up with
them.
Clippers: The
Clippers still hope to hold on and return to the playoffs, but they have
clearly stumbled since last year.
Cassell is showing his age and will be limping into the playoffs, and
Shaun Livingston is not there to fill in.
Maggette has emotionally detached himself from the team, and all of a
sudden, their decision not to trade for Iverson looks indefensible.
Wizards: I’ve
said it for the past couple of years, and nothing has changed: so long as
Washington continues to play Gilbert Arenas at the point, they will crash and
burn every spring. Isiah Thomas is the
only major scorer in recent history to handle both roles well enough to win in
the postseason (no, I’m not counting Tony Parker or Billups – they’re not in
the same league). The Wizards too often
fall into a trap of playing their big three in a rotating game of isolation
offense, and that simply does not cut it when the games get serious. It’s always disappointed me, given that
Eddie Jordan pushed the Princeton motion offense in New Jersey.
Nuggets:
Carmelo Anthony has certainly struggled to mesh his game with Iverson’s
since his return from suspension, and it is unclear whether that will occur
this year. With Steve Blake serving as
the only true PG on the roster, the Nuggets have failed to find a way to
effectively distribute the ball. It is
surprising that the two All-Stars have not become a formidable high
pick-and-roll tandem. Anthony, in
particular, has the ability to adjust his game off the ball to compliment
Iverson but hasn’t.
Bulls: Their
expected leap into the elite hasn’t fully gone to plan. Ben Wallace, though snatching double digit
boards again, hasn’t been the dominant big they shot the moon for and P.J.
Brown has looked every bit his age.
Tyrus Thomas has done little to please Chicago as a lottery pick, though
Luol Deng has made a sensational leap in his development. Andres Nocioni’s return will be a major
boost for the physical playoffs, but this team will probably need another
offseason before they can expect to be in the Conference Finals.
Toronto: The
Raptors endured a serious hitch in their postseason hopes when Jorge Garbajosa
snapped his left leg like a stick. He
may not be a big name, but he’s a versatile big with range that stung Denver
for 22 and 9 in his previous game. With
him, the Raptors have been a deep team able to surprise and upset almost anyone
with their wide array of lineups, including a 2 combo guard, 3 combo forward
nightmare. When your 8th man
in the rotation is chipping in almost 9 points a game, you can terrorize 2nd
units or teams looking past you. If
Joey Graham can wake up after a somewhat disappointing sophomore year, they may
still be able to shock someone in the first round.
Nets: An
uncohesive group that has lost their only dependable frontcourt piece (Krstic)
and everyone is well aware that the team is soon to be dismantled. You have to wonder if Vince Carter is even
concerned about this season anymore or simply his pending free agency.
Pacers:
Currently challenging the Nets for the final Eastern spot, not that it will
matter much in all likelihood. It will
be interesting to see if Jermaine O’Neal is willing to see through the latest
rebuilding attempt around him.
Orlando: The
Magic plummeted completely through the playoff standings in the past few
months, and it is unlikely that they will recover in time to amount to anything
this year. Grant Hill has finally
enjoyed a full, if not spectacular, year, but Dwight Howard has got to find the
mentality to lead the team every game.
The Magic must be sure to spend money this summer on depth.
Warriors: The
only team in the league outside the conference top 8 that doesn’t have a losing
record in their last 10 games, Golden State still has a run in them to sneak
into the playoffs. They’d almost
certainly be swept in the first round, but it would be a nice boost going into
Nelson’s second year (volume 2) with the team.
Playing
Ping Pong:
Memphis: It should
be alarming to the fans that this team has continued to be so toothless despite
the return of Pau Gasol. Rudy #### looks
to be shaping up to become a solid starting NBA player while Hakim Warrick has
been nothing short of disappointing on the boards. It’s tough to shake off a losing mentality, and that is exactly
what these bear cubs have adopted. It’s
a blessing so many talented bigs headline this draft, but Memphis will need to
find a Chris Paul or Kirk Hinrich if they ultimately want to go somewhere.
Boston: With Doc
Rivers challenging the ethics of coaching by sitting Paul Pierce and Al
Jefferson in winnable games, the Celtics appear to be the most willing to
openly tank games. I don’t know that
this will end well: the lottery has effectively made tanking a futile effort
and has more often rewarded decent teams having a bad year. It’s possible Ainge will get Oden or Durant,
but just as likely that he’ll find himself at the 3rd or 4th
pick while the Bucks or Sixers leapfrog them by virtue of ping pong balls. Besides, how will Durant end this perpetual
youth movement? Would he even fit well
with Al Jefferson?
Charlotte: The team
has been hapless without Okafor manning the middle, and Adam Morrison has
actually seen his scoring drop over the course of the season (15 ppg in Nov to
13 ppg in Dec to 9 ppg in Mar).
Morrison simply has not been able to translate his wreckloose style to
the pros, facing far superior athletes that have refused to let him find a
rhythm. Gerald Wallace leads the team
in scoring, but he would be a 6th man almost anywhere else. This team needs to find their franchise
scorer, and Durant might be the only good bet for that in the top of the draft.
Milwaukee: The Bucks
have used the age-old tank trick of permitting their key players to take injury
leaves of absence. Bogut and Villanueva
are done for the year, not that their hand was forced. These weren’t torn ACLs or broken
wrists. Surgery for shoulder
tendonitis? Hmm……reminds me of Derrick
Coleman missing large stretches of time for what was listed as a “laceration of
the pinky finger.” Trading down to get
Julian Wright would fit their needs well.
Seattle: When you
are on a hopeless team eliminated from playoff contention, it’s not a bad time
to go ahead and have surgery on your ankle.
Ray Allen almost certainly received the blessings of management since
his absence will do nothing but further their lottery chances.
Philadelphia: What
wonders a clean slate brings. Philly
has the distinction of being the lone non-playoff team in the East with a
winning record in its last ten (6-4).
Andre Miller’s leadership has made a world of difference, and Andre
Iguodala’s explosive February was no coincidence. Unfortunately, Iguodala’s back issues humbled him in March. The Sixers will benefit greatly from any of
the numerous big men available in the lottery, and they would do well to hold
onto Miller.
Portland: It’s my
opinion that the best thing Portland could do would be to pawn off Zach
Randolph to someone like Atlanta for 3 cents on the dollar, waive Darius Miles,
and start fresh with Brandon Roy.
LaMarcus Aldridge has boomed in recent weeks, and this could be a nice
young team if they would extract the toxic locker room residents. The point guard position is what most begs
for an upgrade, something that may not be fixable through the lottery.
Sacramento: The Kings
have fallen into complete disaster, with another Artest incident, a disgruntled
and declining Mike Bibby, and numerous signs that the locker room has crumbled
into individual agendas. Brad Miller
has had a horrific year and Kevin Martin appears to be the lone bright spot for
the team.
Atlanta: Showing the
faintest signs of life, the Hawks can’t be too pleased to watch Phoenix holding
their high lottery pick for this year, but if they manage to land in the top 3
they will keep both it and Indiana’s (Al Harrington trade).
Minnesota: Garnett’s
frustration must be at a critical point by now. He is surrounded by overpaid C-list players with little to no
hope for improvement. Kevin McHale’s
increasingly poor track record offers little if any solace.
New Orleans: It’s
exceedingly difficult to be just out of the playoffs but at the back end of the
lottery. With the terrible luck
regarding Peja Stojakovic’s back (don’t expect full return) and Tyson
Chandler’s mediocre season, the Hornets have faltered after their hot
start. Chris Paul needs scoring help,
but Desmond Mason may leave the team via free agency.
New York: Dead last,
because this team won’t be improving much.
Isiah Thomas received an undeserved extension, Marbury and Francis are
going nowhere fast, and the team will be relegated to Chicago’s pick instead of
their own (their second round pick goes to Philadelphia).
I don’t think I can recall a winter in which so many players
have openly asked out or so many teams have made noise that they’re ready to
make moves. It’s getting to the point
where GM’s need to just throw a 70s-styled swing party to swap their
undesirables. Throw your keys into the
fishbowl! I’ll briefly run down the two
dozen or so names I’ve seen in various papers, along with their salary for this
season:
Pau Gasol ($12.3) and Eddie Jones ($15.7) of Memphis. Gasol’s picked up plenty of press recently,
but Jones also let slip that he would appreciate a buyout or trade to a
contender. Jerry West knows that when
it’s time to rebuild, it’s best to completely rework the roster. With Oden or Durant potentially joining the
team in June, the timing is good and there won’t be pressure to receive talent
for talent.
Vince Carter ($15.1) and Jason Kidd ($18.1) of the Nets. Carter has a player option this summer, and
has apparently not left team officials with the idea that he’ll be sticking
around. With the team’s time among the
East elite at the tail end, Rod Thorn would prefer to move Carter now before he
has to face the possibility of VC going (to Disneyworld) without
compensation. They’d like to also move Jason
Kidd’s massive contract to facilitate rebuilding, but few teams can take on a
deal that size and the team has backed off recently; reportedly out of (PR)
sensitivity to his pending divorce.
Expect Kidd to threaten off (a la Iverson) any non-contending trade
partners.
Corey Maggette ($7) of the Clippers. Despite the good face he put on it early in
the season, Maggette is not okay with being a 6th man and has his
agent pestering Elgin Baylor to move him out.
Unfortunately, Baylor is notoriously conservative on the trade market.
Andrei Kirilenko ($12.3) of the Jazz. I’m not sure if there is much validity to talk
about AK47 being available. Sloan and
Larry Miller have vented about Andrei’s increasingly pouty behavior, and teams
have leapt at the possibility to #### Mr. Versatility from Salt Lake. However, that doesn’t mean the Jazz want to
move him. Sloan is not a coach that
simply wants talent – he values blue collar types far more than All-Stars. There aren’t many hard-nosed players out there
to entice him into swapping away his phenomenal defensive talent.
Jermaine O’Neal ($18.1) of the Pacers. Another guy I can’t get a good read on. O’Neal inferred a few weeks ago that he’d
rather be dealt if a contending roster can’t be built around him, but I haven’t
seen much beyond that. I’ve come across
an O’Neal-for-Gasol rumor, but that wouldn’t make much sense if Memphis is
looking to rebuild and O’Neal wants to contend. Jermaine’s salary would also make a midseason trade difficult.
Ron Artest ($7.2) and Mike Bibby ($12.5) of the Kings. An Artest-Maggette swap nearly took place in
December, and it’s safe to say that Ron is not untouchable by any means. The Kings are still trying to find their
next era, and at least considered moving Bibby for Iverson. How actively they’re looking to make a move
is uncertain, but it would seem that they would not be afraid to go after big
names with their own.
Jason Richardson ($10) of the Warriors. This may not hold much water, but at least
one anonymous league source told the media that he expects Richardson to be
moved this year. Could be that they
view Stephan Jackson as a cheaper alternative and Richardson has been
struggling heavily this year.
Some minor names:
Bonzi Wells of the Rockets; Nazr Mohammed and Flip Murray of
the Pistons; Morris Peterson of the Raptors; Andre Miller of the Sixers; Brent
Barry and Jackie Butler of the Spurs; Drew Gooden of the Cavs; Darko Milic of
the Magic; Marko Jaric of the Wolves; Jamaal Magloire of the Blazers.
Some teams that are very likely to be buyers:
The Heat are sensitive to their total fall from grace and
are fed up with the lazy efforts of Antoine Walker. They’re hoping to either move his toxic contract (good luck) or
swap James Posey’s expiring deal for some desperately needed help. The Shaq they want won’t be returning
anytime soon.
The Bulls have let it be known that they’d like to make a
deal and they have the pieces. They
have PJ Brown’s expiring deal, a crowded room of young talent, and the right to
the Knick’s pick in this draft. Paxson
would like to switch out some of his youth for an established star that would
carry them into contender status but wants to be sure he’s getting the right
guy. The worst thing he could do would
be exchange his blue chips for another Ben Wallace.
The Celtics have been waiting for a star to pair with
Pierce, and have a decent package at the ready if anyone will take it. They may hold off on the trigger if only
because a potentially greater superstar might await them if they finish with a
terrible record and get lucky in the lottery.
The Bucks may feel pressure to make a move, given their
underwhelming place in the standings: just out of the playoff picture but not
in the Oden sweepstakes. They do have a
couple of expiring deals on the books, but aren’t likely to be big movers and
shakers in February.
One team that everyone still expects to see in this section
but won’t is the Knicks. Not enough
attention has been given to the fact that Isiah hasn’t made one peep about
going after any of the available talent, where in years passed he leaped at any
inkling that a player was on the market.
James Dolan is forcing him to ride out the season with the cards he
assembled and disconnected Isiah’s phone.
Moving off the trade talk, the Suns and the Mavericks are
very obviously running away with the league and it’s tough to picture anyone
stopping them at this point. The Spurs
are the only team close, both in the standings and in point differential, and
they don’t look as strong as they have in years past. The performance drop off behind the big three has been alarming
this year, with Finley, Bowen, and Barry looking like they aged several years
over the summer. Dallas is allowing the
third-fewest points per game in the league (behind the Spurs and Houston), and
the Suns are famously making the rest of the league their playpen. Houston has the most home-friendly schedule
(23) in the West for the rest of the season, but the news on Yao Ming’s rehab
has not been encouraging.
It’s getting tougher and tougher to see anyone in the East
making a relevant trip to the Finals.
Cleveland looks more and more like a one-man show and got torn apart on
their recent west coast swing, Orlando is tumbling its way out of the playoff
standings after an eye-popping start to the season, and Washington’s porous
defense very nearly leads the league in points allowed (0.4 points off from GSW). The best candidate is Detroit, especially if
they capture lightning in a bottle twice with the Webber trade. Chris may be a shadow of his former self and
unable to bend his knees anymore, but never underestimate the desire players
have to stick it to their former teams.
No one else in the East has fewer holes in their starting lineup, and
only Chicago has a better point differential.
New Jersey:
The Nets swapped persona non grata Jeff McInnis for the Bobcats
Bernard Robinson in a purely financial move.
The Nets went from $1.5 million over the luxury tax threshold to almost
a million beneath it with this move.
However, the team sent cash to Charlotte (presumably the $2.6 million
difference between salaries), meaning the team will only realize relatively
marginal savings ($1.5 million in luxury payments coupled with the tax payout
to teams). I bring this up because the
Nets had the opportunity to bring in Marvin Ely for McInnis and a #2
instead. For a team starved for a PF,
this was a slap in the face of Jason Kidd and the declining fanbase. It would make sense if this team were the
Blazers or Sixers, but this is a team with an experienced and dangerous trio
that could do some damage in the also-ran East. As it stands, the team is in a virtual 4-way tie for the 5-team
Atlantic Divison. Adding a cheap but
talented big was a gift for the taking, and it is telling to see that they
choose to go the other way and appease the accountants instead.
Miami: I have
no problems calling Pat Riley a gutless snake for his exit yesterday. No, I don’t have connections to the Heat
organizations giving me the “real” scoop, and I don’t need them. Riley shares more than a hairstyle with used
car salesmen, both lie with smiles on their faces. He lied when he stabbed Stan Van Gundy in the back to get his
championship last year, he lied when he ditched the team in 2003 on the heels
of the post-Mourning/Hardaway era, he lied when he slipped out of New York at
the dead of the night. Pat Riley was
not surprised this past week about news regarding his knee and hip; he was
aware of them in June. The only reason
he’s having (season-ending) surgeries on them is because he doesn’t want this
season to tarnish his legacy and he’s sick of the apathetic personalities that
are poisoning the Heat locker room. I’d
be interested to hear Shaq’s thoughts on Riley stealing his patented method for
getting out of the regular season games, though.
The lesson to take home:
teams routinely lie. Stop being
surprised and stop drinking the kool-aid they hand out. If you were shocked and appalled over Nick
Saban going to Alabama, you are either 11 years old or feigning it for your
ESPN column. When Rudy Tomjanovich went
on hiatus for cancer treatment, it was legitimate. When he resigned from the Rockets citing health issues, it was
the out the Rockets asked him to take so they wouldn’t have to fire him (the
Lakers asked him to do likewise a couple years later). The Knicks have let it be known that Steve
Francis is at home in Houston so he can better rehab his knee tendonitis (the
treatment for tendonitis? Asprin and
rest.). Funny how that sounds similar
to Penny Hardaway’s NY departure to “rehab” in Memphis and Houston. If someone is at a podium with more than
three cameras pointed at them, don’t expect to hear the frank truth.
To date, 6 teams in the West have 20+ wins, and we’re still
waiting for the first from the East.
Someday, the balance will shift back…someday. Sadly, Dallas and Phoenix won’t meet again until mid-March. With San Antonio struggling a little of
late, these two teams are the current powerhouses that are putting serious fear
into the league. Keep your eye on Amare
– while he’s had many big games, he’s quietly had a large number of 12 point, 5
rebound nights. He’s been extremely
off-and-on for the Suns.
Washington:
Gilbert Arenas is giving us one heck of a season, and it’s always fun
when someone gets Kobe prickly.
However, this is catering to the same iso-dependant play that has gotten
Washington bounced from the playoffs the last couple of years. The East is fairly weak, so they may get
away with it in the first round, but their porous defense and lack of team play
is going to catch up to them the moment they run into Detroit or Chicago.
Houston:
Start the clock on the McGrady/Yao era with the Rockets. Simply put, this team will not contend for a
championship so long as neither player can manage 60 games a season. Yao is irreplaceable to the team financially
and McGrady’s degenerative discs are a chronic condition, so it is clear who
will eventually go. This could
potentially end with a medical retirement before his contract ends in 3 years.
Memphis: The
Grizzlies, despite the return of Pau Gasol, are your current leaders in the
Greg Oden sweepstakes with a league “leading” 25 losses (and 8 wins). Of course, the team with the worst record
rarely if ever wins the lottery.
Sacramento:
The Ron Artest-Corey Maggette deal was real, but died once Elgin Baylor
got cold feet, something that happens often to the Clips GM during the
season. As neurologically imbalanced as
Artest is, he would have made the Clippers a fearsome force going into the
postseason. Having already dangled both
Artest and Bibby, the Kings have essentially painted themselves into a corner
and will need to make a move. No star
deals well knowing that they were on the block.
I know that every analyst, expert, sportswriter, and blogger
has already chimed in on the subject, but I can’t resist! It’s a compulsion and I’m seeking help.
The breakdown: Allen Iverson and throw-in Ivan McFarlin for
Andre Miller, Joe Smith, and two first rounders (Dallas and Denver, 2007)
The good for Philly: The drawn out saga finally is put down. The team and Iverson have had an increasing schism in the years
following their singular Finals appearance under Larry Brown and the
relationship was too toxic to continue any longer. Let the healing begin.
Andre Miller is the most capable point man the team has had since losing
Eric Snow, and the draft picks will help kick off a youth movement.
The good for Denver: Fairly obvious to see; the Nuggets will eventually combine two
30-point scorers and have the most terrifying wing tandem (including JR Smith)
in the league. Yes, more terrifying
than yours, New Jersey. George Karl is
usually good for honeymoon periods, and the Nuggets can hold out hope for a
second half run reminiscent of 2005.
Iverson alone will stop the bleeding that would have otherwise occurred
during Carmelo’s 15-game absence.
The bad for Philly: This is quite a list. In
short, they dealt a still-producing Hall of Famer in return for scraps. Andre Miller is a fair point guard, but
unlike Nash or Kidd, he does not make his team significantly better with his
leadership and passing. He has good
assist numbers, but they can be misleading.
His defense is good for his position, as is his rebounding. His perimeter shooting is horrid. Joe Smith is also fair, but is no better
than Webber or Dalembert. This team
will need Andre Iguodala to perform at an All-Star level to avoid emptying out
the Wachovia Center.
The Bad for Denver: I’m not concerned about Iverson and Carmelo meshing their games
in the short-term. Iverson especially
will be looking to prove all critics wrong with his play and he wants to be in
the postseason badly. The three areas
where the Nuggets took a hit are as follows:
they now have a seriously bad cap situation, with five huge contracts on
the books (Iverson, Carmelo, Martin, Nene, Camby); they lost their only natural
distributor and will be forced to play mostly one-on-one sets for their
offense, something easily exploited in playoff series; and their lack of
outside shooting will become even more of an issue. More so than before, teams will find that clogging the middle
will be an extremely effective way to slow down Denver’s half-court sets.
In Conclusion
With Philadelphia, Billy King faced 2 general options when
the decision to end the Iverson era was made:
Try to
remain competitive by swapping him for another All-Star (say, Baron Davis)
Move
Iverson with rebuilding in mind
King opted for the second, a smart move to go for. Choice number two came with three
sub-options:
Get
under the salary cap to sign free agents (such as Denver and Chicago in
the late 90s)
Grab
draft picks to bring in a new face of the franchise (such as Orlando and Dwight Howard)
Trade
for young up & comers (ex. Randy Foye)
This is where King went awry. King seemed to try and shoot the moon, asking for all 3 things
from each team he talked to. He wanted
the Celtics #1, Gerald Green and/or Al Jefferson, and Theo Ratliff. He demanded most teams in the early days of
negotiations to take Webber ($22 million next year) along with Iverson ($20
million next year). That’s a high price
to pay, and it sounds as if King squeezed teams out rather than negotiate
down. Instead of touching off a bidding
war, he had interested teams walking out, reducing his leverage. Iverson and Leon Rose hurt his position by
scaring off teams like the Bobcats with threats of reporting as an unhappy
camper. However, it is the role o####M
to make deals happen, and King managed to fumble things up. He was unable to negotiate third parties
into the deal and ended up making a deal with Denver that superficially
included all three rebuild goals while accomplishing none.
The Sixers
were among the top payrolls in the league, and obtaining Joe Smith’s $7 million
expiring deal gets them nowhere near the salary cap, let alone beneath it. His deal is worthless in a rebuilding
effort, plus, they picked up an overpaid Andre Miller (~$9.5 million per year
for two more years after this season) as well.
The draft picks are low-end, projected to be in the low- to mid-20s in
this year’s draft. These picks from
Denver and Dallas are almost certainly not going to be in the lottery, and even
in an anticipated draft class, the players brought in are most likely going to
be rotation players at best. 30-yr old
Andre Miller is hardly an up & comer.
King could
have done far better by sacrificing two goals in an effort to strike it rich
with one. Negotiate better with the
Kings and Warriors and he could have ended up with a real contributor such as
Baron Davis, Jason Richardson, or Mike Bibby instead of Andre Miller. Settle on deals with Phoenix (Kurt Thomas,
Marcus Banks) or the Celtics (Ratliff, Telfair) and snag a more valuable draft
pick (Phoenix has Atlanta’s, the Celtics could be lottery) that may bring in a
star rather than two roster-fillers.
Find a way to involve Charlotte as a third-party facilitator to end up
with significant cap relief rather than shaving $7 million off a payroll
already set at over $74 million. Forgo
getting picks or cap relief and bring in a young guy such as Foye, Green, or
Monta Ellis. The point I’m making is,
King ended up with 3 crummy sandwiches from McDonalds when he could have bought
a single steak. Of course, I predicted
this conclusion from the onset of the Iverson trade news, given King’s track
record as a GM. All you need is one
bonafide star to turn your franchise around in this league (Duncan, Yao,
Howard, LeBron, etc). King did
absolutely nothing that would bring about that star.
How will Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson Mesh?
Both are high volume shooters, but I think for this to work,
Carmelo’s shots are the ones that need to come down. Iverson does not help his team much if he’s not scoring. We’re over ten years into his career, and
that much is obvious. He should be able
to contribute as a playmaker with 8 assists/game or so, but he has to be a
scorer first. Carmelo, on the other
hand, is more adept at contributing without the ball in his hands. He can place himself well for weak-side
passes from Iverson, get tip-ins, and otherwise find his points off the
ball. Iverson simply does not do that
well. This match should work fine,
especially this year. The only concern
is whether they can translate it into post-season success. Their weaknesses (halfcourt team play,
3-point shooting) are critical characteristics of championship teams.
Major news broke last week that Allen Iverson and the
Phildelphia 76ers agreed that a divorce needed to happen as soon as
possible. Iverson is said to have asked
for the trade himself and owner Ed Snider seemed to be more than happy to
oblige. The big questions are, where is
he going, who will come in return for him, and will the rest of the team be
dismantled? I’ll try and sort things
out from what I understand and what I suspect will occur. One stumbling block in my attempted forecast
is that GM Billy King will be making the decisions, and his moves (handing
out Kenny Thomas’ contract and trading for Chris Webber for two examples) don’t
always make good business or basketball sense.
The intelligent thing to do here
would be to go the clean house route, looking for cap relief and draft
picks. The Sixers are typically bad
enough to be in the lottery but good enough to not have a high value pick. They need a new franchise guy, and they can
only expect pennies on the dollar from the trade front. They need to hope for the kind of miracle
Orlando got with Dwight Howard. The
Sixers are the second-highest payroll in the league behind NY, right at $96
million dollars, and so the only way they can get under the cap to sign major
players is to also get rid of Chris Webber.
Jamal Mashburn and Todd MacCulloch (combined $16 million) finally come
off of the books this summer, but Allen and Chris are due $42 million next
year. Removing their numbers would send
the Sixers all the way down to $32 million and under the cap if they
were to make them both go away (for expiring deals). Probably can’t happen, but subtracting Webber, his washed up
game, and his bad attitude from the roster would be a key move in bringing
about a new era. Trying to attach him
in any deal should take place (best of luck).
According to Marc Stein, these are
the teams that have publically said they are not interested: Atlanta, Dallas,
Denver, New Jersey, New York (again, I believe Isiah’s GM keys are locked in
James Dolan’s safe), and Orlando.
Iverson let slip in a conversation with Jim Gray that he wanted to end
up in Minnesota with Kevin Garnett, though Iverson’s agent has tried to deny
that conversation took place. Ed Snider
has indicated that he is not willing to do Iverson any favors, so that may have
ended a Timberwolves deal. That, and
the fact that the Wolves have little to offer outside of Randy Foye. Greg Popovich told the San Antonio media
that they weren’t interested, and Byron Scott did likewise in Oklahoma
City. You can bet your socks that Jeff
Van Gundy wouldn’t want AI. Detroit
makes little sense.
The Celtics, Clippers, Kings,
Bulls, Lakers, Dallas, Warriors, and Bobcats are the teams I have seen with the
most active interest in acquiring Iverson.
Most seem to be offering cap-scrap (Austin Croshere, PJ Brown, Corliss
Williamson), cheap second-tier guys (Corey Maggette, Al Jefferson, Ben Gordon),
and draft picks. If the Sixers truly
want the deal to happen before mid-week, it could be done, but they would see a
very poor return. That could
happen. They may get back B-class
players and a pick or they may even get B-class players with bad contracts
(Mike Dunleavy or Troy Murphy). As
previously mentioned, predicting what Billy King would go far is difficult to
do. I have an inkling it won’t be what
I’d do.
If I were to take over as Sixers GM
this afternoon? I would move Iverson to
the Celtics for Green, Jefferson, Ratliff (the salaries must match within 25%
or, on the low side, a shade over $14 million), and this year’s unprotected #1
(at worst, only protected if it is THE #1 this year). That should arm the Sixers with 2 of the top 5 players in this
year’s draft to go along with a young big and a potential superstar. Buy out Ratliff and Webber from their final
years and the team will be under the cap this summer as well. As a bonus for Snider, the Celtics will be
an unbalanced horror show after robbing them of their only decent PF and
coupling two backcourt players that dominate the ball. Pierce may love the idea of Iverson now, but
I can’t believe that he’d be so excited about the prospect once his touches
disappear.
I personally feel that adding
Iverson to the mix, no matter the team, is a tremendous undertaking. The team must revolve around Iverson if he
is on the court. I don’t say this
because I think he’s selfish, I say it because Iverson’s game insists that he
have the ball in his hands. He would be
a good fit with Garnett; he needs facilitators (Eric Snow being the best he teamed
with) around him. Iverson without the
ball in his hands is no help, but pairing
him with a Kobe or Pierce seems to be a disaster waiting to happen.
The New York Times is reporting that David Stern is finally
blinking in the standoff over the new Spalding composite ball that replaced the
far more popular leather ball this season.
Vicious complaints from LeBron and Shaq, the faces of the NBA, helped as
did reports that players and assistants were taping their fingers because of
annoying cuts from the ball. Stern has
not pulled the ball from games yet, but that could happen at the All-Star break
or after the season.
Wicked Reek of the East
When putting this preview-follow up together, I realized that
a degree of difficulty had been added.
With the Eastern Conference teams so universally abysmal right now, it’s
tough to take any of them seriously despite the fact that one of them has to
make the Finals by default. Cleveland,
Detroit, and Miami could possibly be 35-win teams in the West, and they’re the
closest things to contenders out there.
Yes, I did say Miami and not Orlando.
Novembers have a way of sucking people into believing that pretenders
are title-bound, and leaving contenders for dead. Even the MJ-Bulls endured one of those Novembers in the late
90s. Things will be sorted out in the
warmer months of the season.
A walk through the league, starting with a stand out quote I
made about each team a month ago:
The Contenders:
Spurs:Have the Spurs become dinosaurs
overnight?Nope. Tim Duncan is playing at full force again,
Tony Parker continues to be an outstanding second star, and the team play has
been rock solid on both ends of the court.
There simply may not be a more focused or cohesive unit in the
league. Oberto and Elson are capably
replacing Rasho and Nazr at the 5, though both can be up and down.
Mavericks:this is still a deeply talented team of
athletic role players built around Dirk Nowitzki. The Mavericks are who we thought they were! Not much to say, as they look very similar
to last year’s squad. The big trick
will be whether they learned from or will relive last year’s playoffs.
Kicking
at the Door:
Phoenix:Amare Stoudamire can either make them the
deadliest team in the league, or he can shatter their Musketeer chemistry. So far, we’re leaning to deadly. The Suns worked through an initial rough
patch transitioning Amare back into the lineup, where he is now giving them
20-10 on most nights. So far, so good.
Cleveland:If Larry Hughes can be his Robin, this team may become
the new kings of the Central Division.
Unfortunately, Larry Hughes’ start may be an ominous sign. He went down 8 games in and has missed
almost 3 weeks with a turned ankle.
LeBron can win more than enough game on his own to get them into the
playoffs, but they need a complete team to join the elite. No one else on this team should be
considered anything more than a 4th option on offense.
Detroit:More than ever, an injury amongst the remaining Fab
Four could mean an early summer.
Detroit righted the ship with an 8-game win streak as November ended,
feasting on the likes of Miami, Washington, and New York. They may not be what they once were, but this
is still a foursome that knows how to take care of business.
Miami: They look to have the same warts as
last year’s squad. Unlike Detroit,
this is not a group that takes care of business. Disinterested and unmotivated play from the likes of Walker and
Payton on the heels of Shaq’s unsurprising injury-related absence has Pat Riley
pulling his knife out of the back of SVG’s body to carve the roster
players. Jason Williams is not fully
recovered from his knee surgery, forcing Dwayne Wade into 40 mpg to help cover
the PG position. Wade gets most of his
breathers by way of the amazing number of trips to the free throw line he’s
getting each night (11 FTA per game).
Since the number 2 scorer is Haslem, he can use all the breaks he can
get. As bad as things are now, it’s
hard to picture them in the lottery.
Playoff
Fodder:
Jazz: Larry
Miller and Jerry Sloan are experiencing a Stockton/Malone hangover. So much for that hangover. Deron Williams (16 and 9) and Carlos Boozer
(23 and 12) have Utah fans tap dancing with their eye-popping play. While this might seem like a bad thing for
Kirilenko’s production, it actually frees him up to be the do-everything spider
man that gives opponents nightmares.
Watch for some of his patented 15-10-5-5-5 stat lines to show up
soon.
Clippers:The
Clippers must maintain…and they’re doing just that. Kaman and Cassell are providing just as much
as they did last year, Brand is always a rock, and Cat and Maggette are keeping
the wing spots steady. Only Clipper
fans should be surprised at Tim Thomas’ game regression now that he’s no longer
playing for a contract. Quinten Ross is
a nice stopper off the bench but needs to add to his offensive arsenal,
Livingston should be challenging Sam for the starting PG role by now but is far
from doing so, and Daniel Ewing has also not made good on his rookie
potential. The Clippers are very good
but show little signs of moving up to the status of great.
Lakers:It
is time for [Kobe] to fully come into his own. His scoring average has dipped in the wake of his knee surgery
this summer, but Kobe seems to have the Lakers clicking as a leader and that
may be bad news for the rest of the league.
Lamar Odom has finally found his place in the offense and is posting
career numbers. The downside is that
Luke Walton is the 3rd leading scorer on the team. Andrew Bynum developed an ego and attitude
problem even faster than his surprising game, tempering what looked to be a
sudden rise at the center position. The
point guard position is fairly unsettled as well, but this team does look like
it’s back on course in the post-Shaq era.
One or two more roster moves and they’ll be a true force again.
Orlando:this
is a team on a serious rise. Finally
free of Steve Francis’ ball-hogging, Dwight Howard looks to be a very
legitimate All-Star center in the East.
17 points, 13 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game on the top team in the
East. I’d say that the only thing that
could keep Dwight Howard from the All-Star game would be bad traffic. Much of the credit to the team’s tremendous
start is being handed to Grant Hills and followed with tons of ‘if’ statements,
which is somewhat unfair. Nelson and
Arroyo are doing very well at the 1, and Darko is tossing in 2 blocks of his
own each night in only 20 minutes of play.
Turkoglu and Ariza need to bolster their respective games for Orlando to
keep this going, and it will be interesting to see how J.J. Redick fairs now
that he is on the court. If the Magic
want to convince skeptics that they are for real, their Monday matchup against
the Suns will be the time to do so.
Rockets:The
Rockets have dug massive holes in their past two Novembers and Jeff Van Gundy
is on his last letters in hangman.
McGrady’s health will mean everything to this club’s success. The Rockets had a strong November and are
armed with 12 wins as they go into a harsh travel-heavy December. McGrady looks as if he’s limited by his
back, but this has mostly kicked Yao into accepting a superstar’s burden
instead of passive deference. The Bonzi
Wells experiment has fallen apart, but Shane Battier has been a terrific glue
man. Chuck Hayes has been a major
contributor with his poor man’s imitation of Dennis Rodman (sans the
insanity). The team, as to be expected
with Jeff Van Gundy, is stingy on defense but prone to dry spells on
offense.
Nets:Still
a high octane trio with a thin frontcourt and bench. For the first time since Byron Scott was
fired, it looks like the Nets are starting to slip. Jason Kidd has been rumored to have become irritated with Vince
Carter’s play and both Rod Thorn and Ed Stefanski have made their frustrations
with the poor start known publically.
The team has primarily been plagued by lackluster defense and a porous
frontline. Center Nenad Krstic is
managing 7 boards to Kidd’s 8, which has to be concerning.
Pacers:It’s
difficult to argue that this Pacers team is making moves in a forward direction. The team is at 0.500 and O’Neal and
Harrington have reformed a nice tandem, but the team has shown that they can
lose to anyone (Boston, Seattle) with an unreliable defense. Cleveland and Orlando are the only quality
opponents that they’ve notched wins against.
Jeff Foster has been fantastic on the boards in limited minutes, and
Jermaine O’Neal has been handing out a nasty 3 blocks per game.
Kings:The
only questions are the 2-guard spot, first-year coach Eric Musselman, and
whether there is a clutch go-to scorer.
Kevin Martin may have taken care of the void Bonzi left, though defenses
may be catching on to him (15 ppg in his last 5, 4 of which were losses),
especially with Artest not drawing their attention. Musselman seems to be doing a good job so far, bringing out a
good team effort on the boards and on defense.
He may need to keep an eye on Artest, who is starting to show the signs
that he’s reverting to a volume shooter (12-52 behind the arc).
Bulls:Is
Big Ben the missing piece or an overrated grumbler past his prime? I don’t think I need to type out the
answer. The Bulls are probably stuck
with a frontcourt that isn’t producing, but the holdovers are still doing
well. As if on cue, the end of the
Barnum & Bailey exile has coincided with a 6-game winning streak. When a team has to go through the Texas
triangle after only 6 games, you have to cut them some slack. Don’t expect a KG trade to happen during the
season (if at all) but do expect to see the team hold strong onto a playoff
spot.
Wizards:The
Wizards chief problem in the last two years has been running the offense
through a pure scorer (Gilbert Arenas)…and when that scorer is horrific on
the road, your record will reflect it (1-8, thanks only to the inept
Knicks). Only once has this team won
(Atlanta) without outgunning an opponent, needing a 113 scoring average to
offset a poor defense in victories. If
the Wizards make the postseason, it will be short lived (no, wait, this is
still the Eastern Conference…).
Hornets:The
addition of Peja and Tyson Chandler to a frontcourt with gem David West
solidifies this group on paper for the Run & Fun offense. And Fun & Gun they have. West, Peja, and Paul are averaging right at
17, 18, and 19, respectively, and Chandler and West are eating a combined 20
boards a game. Running teams require
the best point guard play possible, and Paul is taking care of that with an
outstanding 2.8 assist/turnover ratio.
Spinning
Wheels:
Denver: If
you think this is a playoff team, keep them in pencil. Should the playoffs commence tonight, the
Nuggets would be the #7 seed. The bad
news: they’ve managed only a single win against a winning team (the Clippers at
0.529) and have only played one team with a good record (Orlando). Despite playing the fewest games of any team
in the league and those games being against mostly 0.500 or below squads, the
Nuggets are at the bottom of the Western playoff bracket and managed loses to
NY, Memphis, and Atlanta. I don’t
believe this bodes well for when they start getting Dallas and Phoenix on the
schedule.
Minnesota: Mike
James and Randy Foye join Ricky Davis to form a trio of wing players that can
put up numbers, something that offensive facilitator KG thrives on. Unfortunately, none of those 3 have been
able to manage so much as 15 ppg in support of Garnett. Don’t look now, but Big Ticket’s numbers are
on a 3 year decline: points, rebounds, and assists. Is he getting old or getting worn out from the losing?
Golden State:Mike Dunleavy should see plenty of action as a point forward (Nelson
created the concept), giving him his best chance to get his career going. Unfortunately, it looks like he won’t live
up to his contract. Nelson has sent his
declining numbers to the bench. Still,
Baron Davis and Monta Ellis have been major pluses so far this year, making up
for Jason Richardson’s ineffectiveness on bum knees. Davis in particular, is looking as quick and motivated as he ever
has. Ellis has been a dangerous
Barbosa-type hybrid guard, giving opponents fits with his speed and pesky
play. The Warriors need to pull out of
their recent slide to keep up with the unforgiving Western Conference playoff
picture.
Memphis:When
Pau Gasol went down with a fracture in his leg, it likely shut the lights out
on the Griz hopes for this year.
Stuck at the very bottom of the West standings, and with a looming
ownership change, it seems like it is rebuilding time in Memphis. New owners almost always mean overhauls, Pau
Gasol is rumored to be on the block, and Eddie Jones comes off the books this
summer. Expect a youthful team next
fall.
Bucks:Michael
Redd will need to stay at an All Star level for this team to compete. Even more so now that Bobby Simmons may be
done for the year with multiple surgeries on his heel on the way. Redd is doing everything he can at nearly 30
ppg, and Mo Williams has helped with reliable play at the PG spot. The return of Charlie Villaneuva can’t come
soon enough, especially if he can get his rebounding on track. Andy Bogut has been mildly disappointing as
the full time center, notching only a single 20 point game and only 3
double-digit rebound nights so far.
Toronto:Bryan
Colangelo is today’s Jerry West, and his initial moves have been outstanding. Toronto’s in the mix for the playoffs by
virtue of the repugnant Atlantic Division, but more importantly seems to be on
the rise. TJ Ford has given them better
play at the point than anyone in recent years, and after a quiet first 9 games
(4 ppg), Andrea Bargnani has started to be a factor (12.2 ppg in his second
nine games). The rumblings that Sam
Mitchell will be gone in April are fairly loud.
New York:That’s
right, I’m not putting them under ‘miserable.’
Isiah is an overrated coach, but Larry Brown soured the players to the
point that they would gleefully embrace Stalin if he had a clipboard. Eddy Curry will be a key factor in their
fate this season. I don’t know how,
but I managed to overrate a guy I knew was going to be worse than everyone
thought (and everyone knew he was terrible to begin with). It can give you a headache. They win a third of their games, the leading
scorer has less than 17.0 ppg, the only guy averaging more than 7 boards got
benched for no reason, and no one can manage so much as 5 assists per
game. The only stat the team is good at
keeping high is turnovers. The big
question isn’t when Isiah will get fired,
I know that every analyst, expert, sportswriter, and blogger
has already chimed in on the subject, but I can’t resist! It’s a compulsion and I’m seeking help.