With over half of the 2008 MLB season in the books I thought it was appropriate to figure out which teams have the easiest time of it as they proceed through the next couple of months trying to make the playoffs…

I took the current MLB Power Rankings and then tied that to each team’s remaining schedule of games to come up with a Strength of Schedule (SOS) ranking similar to what is used in football.

 

 

 

Here was the situation through the games played on the Fourth of July…

 

Power     National League                  Record                   Remains

Rank                East                              W – L                     H – A

6              Philadelphia Phillies            48-39                     40-35

18           Florida Marlins                     44-42                     35-41

17           New York Mets                    42-44                     37-39

21           Atlanta Braves                     41-46                     32-43

28           Washington Nationals       34-54                     37-37

 

18.0        Division Rank-5                 209-225                  

 

Rank                Central                         W – L                     H – A

8              Chicago Cubs                       52-35                     41.34

9              St. Louis Cardinals              49-39                     36-38

11           Milwaukee Brewers              47-39                     39-37

24           Pittsburgh Pirates                 40-45                     37-40

25           Cincinnati Reds                    41-47                     38-36

23           Houston Astros                   40-47                    
45-30

 

15.3        Division Rank-4                 217-217

 

Rank                West                             W – L                     H – A

19           Arizona Diamondbacks       43-44                     37-38

15           Los Angeles Dodgers         42-44                     39-37

20           San Francisco Giants           38-49                     42-33

29           Colorado Rockies                 36-51                     37-38

30           San Diego Padres                 34-53                     37-38

 

22.6        Division Rank-6                 193-241

 

Now for a look at each team’s SOS… These were determined by using the opponent’s Power Rank and multiplying by the number of games played against each opponent, with one variation. One point in the rankings was subtracted from the home team’s Power Rank to weight the results in favor of the home team, just as in reality the home team has a certain advantage. Hopefully this will yield more realistic results to these findings. Finally the results were then tallied and divided by the number of remaining games to be played…

 

Here is the Strength of Schedule determined by this method: (the easiest schedules are listed first)

 

Power                                                                                 
    Current

Rank      Team                                     SOS        Rank      Standing        Games Out   

29           Colorado Rockies                20.89            1          4th-West                7

20           San Francisco Giants          20.80            2          3rd-West                5

15           Los Angeles Dodgers         20.11            3          2nd-West               1

19           Arizona Diamondbacks      19.88            4          1st-West                 -

11           Milwaukee Brewers             19.47            5          3rd-Cent.                4

30           San Diego Padres                18.57            6          5th-West               9

23           Houston Astros                  18.43            7          6th-Cent.                12

17           New York Mets                    18.34           8          3rd-East                 5

6              Philadelphia Phillies           18.16           9          1st-East                   -

24           Pittsburgh Pirates                17.57           10       4th-Cent.                 10

25           Cincinnati Reds                   17.55            11       5th-Cent.                 11

8              Chicago Cubs                     17.36            12       1st-Cent.                 -

28           Washington Nationals       17.14            13       5th-East                  15

21           Atlanta Braves                    17.05             14       4th-East                  7

9              St. Louis Cardinals            17.03              15       2nd-Cent.                3

18           Florida Marlins                   16.39              16       2nd-East                  4

 

Here is how it appears, and always with the injury disclaimer,

 

In the East, the Philadelphia Phillies have withstood the Florida Marlins attempts to retake the lead they once enjoyed. It appears if the Mets can right their ship (get consistent pitching) they might challenge for the East, but this may be too tall an order. The Mets and Phillies’ schedule match up so there’s no advantage there. The Marlins have the toughest schedule of all the National League teams and for this reason I believe they will fade as the season progresses. The second place team in the East will be left out in the October cold... The Phillies are too strong to be overhauled here.

 

The Central division is the strongest of the in the National League’s divisional Power Rankings, coming in fourth overall. Like the AL Central, this division is adding up to be another shootout. The Cubs have led this division while accumulating what was the best record in baseball most of the way, but the Cardinals and Brewers have hung with them. Now Milwaukee has added a top arm for the stretch run with a couple more weeks to go before the trade deadline. Will the Cubs and Cards act to improve their chances? This will be hotly contested regardless of whether any new additions are made to these teams. The Wild Card team in this league will come from the Central… I’m going to play it conservatively here and pick the Cubs to win the division and follow through with the Brewers sliding into the playoffs as the Wild Card team…

 

The West division is bar none, the weakest division in Major League Baseball this year. If any one of these teams gets hot and can sustain it for a month or so, they might walk off winning this division title, and that’s what it’s going to take to make the playoffs. Being a Giant fan it really grinds on me to say this, but the way it stands right now, the Dodgers should be the team that “gets ‘er done” here. They’ve hung around while the Diamondbacks slowly have fallen back to the pack after an impressive start out of the gate. The Bums have had what seemed like their whole team on the DL at one time or another, but now they appear to be getting healthy. If these guys can keep away from any future injuries, this division race will be over. I can’t see any trades before the deadline being made as these teams, other than the Dodgers, are becoming more fiscally responsible…

 

So here is how I see the playoffs developing as the second season begins…

 

Division Winners –

                        American                          National

East –       Tampa Bay Rays            Philadelphia Phillies

Central –  Minnesota Twins           Chicago Cubs

West –     Los Angeles Angels      Los Angeles Dodgers

 

Wild Card Teams –

                  Chicago White Sox         Milwaukee Brewers

 

There ya have it! Now we’ll sit back and see if I get picked off base or get a good jump and come in safe!

 

 

The first significant trade of the MLB Winter Meetings just came off the sportswire.

The Florida Marlins have traded their two biggest stars to the Detroit Tigers for six young players, two of whom had been advertised as untouchable.

 

The Tigers Get:                                              
            

Dontrelle Willis  Left-handed starter. 68-54 in 160 career starts and a career ERA of 3.80 with 748 K's in 1012 innings pitched.

Miguel Cabrera  Third basemen Right-handed power hitter. Miguel's career batting numbers : .313 BA, 138 ZHRs, and 523 RBIs in a five years. Cabrera is also a very versatile in the field starting at several positions for the Marlins. 

 

The Marlins Get:

Outfielder Cameron Maybin  Consistently ranked as the Tigers' top minor league prospect

Left-hander Andrew Miller  6'6" and is one of the top up and coming youngsters in the nation.

Catcher Mike Rabelo   2007 marked his first Major League experience.

plus three minor league prospects...

 

I hoped to see Dontrelle go a different direction, he signed a one year contract last January with the Marlins so part of the deal for the Tigers will be to get a long-term contract on him. Willis was born and raised in the San Francisco Bay Area and I hoped he would find a home with the Giants...

I think this transaction vastly improves a very strong Tigers team. I've felt for a long time that Dontrelle would blossom in a winners environment. Adding Cabrera to the heart of the Tigers lineup makes a formidable offense even stronger. Cabrera is big time and I believe he too will prosper playing with the likes of Ivan Rodriquez and Magglio Ordonez.

The Tigers have made a move toward returning to the playoffs and hopefully Jim Leyland can lead them back to the Series...