Like the Colts' Johnny Unitas wearing the lightning bolt helmet of the San Diego Chargers, the thought of Brett Favre playing somewhere other than Green Bay seems almost unthinkable. Except for one thing. Favre himself may be thinking it, telling the Associated Press he doesn't know if he will retire and also doesn't know if the Packers want him back. "..up to this point we're 3-12. Wouldn't you think they're sitting there going 'OK, if we're running a risk of this happening next year we might as well save the money and put it somewhere else in the future'?"
The Packers, mindful of Favre's place in Green Bay's storied history, immediately indicated that they want him back next year. So, what's going on? As Favre put it, the risk of another season like this one in Green Bay is real. For a competitor like Favre, that has to hold little appeal. But, saying that he wants to play somewhere other than Green Bay would be very difficult for someone with strong ties to the area and affection for Packer fans. So this could be the first signal of an exit strategy that allows Favre to play two or three more seasons for a playoff contender.
If Favre retires it won't be because he can't play or has lost his competitve fire. At 36 he was 5th in the NFL in passing yardage working with a depleted receiving corp and offensive line. And nobody who saw his flashes of emotion in a meaningless late season game against the Bears could believe he still doesn't have a passion for the game.
If Favre doesn't retire the question becomes where he will play. It would likely be for a team that has playoff possibilites, is closer to his home in Mississippi, and doesn't now have a quarterback capable of taking the team deep into the playoffs. That points squarely in the direction of the up and coming Miami Dolphins or the Tampa Bay Bucaneers. Nick Saban has the Dolphins moving in the right direction and is a proven winner. In Tampa Bay, Favre would play for a team with a bedrock solid defense and wouldn't have to carry the load by himself.
There are other possibilities. The Washington Redskins have more cap flexibility than it appears on the surface. If Favre was willing to accept playing for a lesser team to get closer to home, the New Orleans Saints could certainly use some excitement around their uncertain future.
I'm guessing that Favre will play next year but not with Green Bay. If the sensitive issue of his movement to another team can't be worked out gracefully it's likely this was Favre's last season as a Packer. So, brace yourself Packer fans. Number 4 may be wearing a Dolphin on his helmet next year instead of of the Gold and Green "GB".
This year's playoff teams are alot like the big Kentucky Derby fields at Churchill Downs. There are a few picks that will get alot of attention, some solid entrees worth looking at, a couple of longshots, and alot of horses with no business in the race. After careful review of the NFL team stats, here's how I handicap the field of 14 (allowing for all teams still in contention for a playoff spot):
CLASS OF THE FIELD
Denver Broncos Conventional wisdom says the Colts, but in an environment that magnifies mistakes the Broncos don't make them. Key stat lines- +18 giveaway/takeaway margin, only 28 sacks and interceptions combined (tied with Indianapolis), and 17 pass plays of 40 or more yards.
Seatlle Seahawks Other than a lack of playoff experience it's hard to find a flaw in the Seahawks. Key stat line-28 rushing touchdowns. Cause for concern-only 17 field goals and a 70.8% average.
Indianapolis Colts Not a horse to bet on, despite being the early favorite. Hasn't been stretched out by competition. Key stat line-surprisingly only 13 plays from scrimmage longer than 20 yards. Gives up 300 yards per game on defense and a 66.8% pass completion percentage.
SOLID STARTERS
Pittsburgh Steelers Why not? Solid defense and field goal kicking can go far in the playoffs. I worry that they are too predictable on offense. Key stat lines-Runs the ball 58.8% of the time. Eighty-four yards per game rushing defense.
Cincinnati Bengals A ball hawking defense and potentially explosive offense. Gives up more yards and pass completions than I'd like to see, but the offensive line gives Palmer all kinds of time. Key stat line-31 interceptions. Reason to worry-61.4% pass completion percentage given up on defense. Can they get a Payton Manning off the field?
Carolina Panthers A one good receiver team in a league that demands two. I hesitate to place them this high, but their defense is this good and Jake Delhomme makes alot from a little. Key stat lines-Only 677 yards in penalties on offense, 23 passing TD's, and 12 receptions for 40 yards or more. Why worry? Only 3.2 yards a rush.
Overrated
New England Patriots Johnny Damon left town and so has the Pats mystique. Lots of weaknesses showing up all at once. Key stat- Minus 5 giveaway/takeaway. No team wins the Super Bowl with a negative in this category. More bad news-231.5 yards per game passing by their opponents. The Pats pass 57% of the time, which is a bad stat in the playoffs where most teams got there by putting strong pressure on the QB.
New York Giants Eli Manning will be a fine playoff quarterback, but not yet. Key stat-327.7 yards per game given up by the defense. The Giants won't get Manning on the field and with 17 interceptions a 4 interception day against a tough defense isn't out of the question.
Save Some Money For
Jacksonville Jaquars My insane long shot. Rock solid defense gets opponents off the field. Key stat line-65.6 average kickoff distance. It's an arcane stat, but when the playoffs come around field position is king. At no extra charge-Did you know the Jags only give up 31.9% of 3rd down conversions?
Dallas Cowboys Win one for the Tuna has a nice ring to it. A team with line play this bad shouldn't last past the first round (if they make the playoffs). But remember this key stat-The Cowboys ran 126 more plays from scrimmage than their opponents. A team with an uncanny knack for snatching victory from the jaws of defeat.
Sucker Bets
Kansas City Chiefs An offense that is hitting on all cylinders and a defense that couldn't drive a moped. The only stat you need to know-339.2 yards per game yielded on defense.
Washington Redskins With much respect due to Joe Gibbs, this isn't the Redskins year. Key stat lines- Gave up over 20 yards on 18 plays from scrimmage. Minus 4 giveaway/takeaway. Brunell will not give games away, but he also isn't who you want to see on the field down by more than a touchdown in the 3rd quarter.
Tampa Bay Bucaneers What do they do well? Not much. What do they do badly? Not much. Key stat line-Only 275.9 yards per game by opponents.
Chicago Bears An old fashioned Bears defense, and unfortunately an offense that recalls the glory days of Jack Concannon. Key stats-Opponents have run 38 more plays from scrimmage, 127 yards passing, 28 giveaways.
Summary-Look for the Broncos to take the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. Forget about the Colts, look out for the Jags, and keep an eye on the Steelers and Bengals. The rest are pretenders.
