Yankee Stadium will soon be gone, but the Yankees will remain.  Proud, arrogant, wealthy.

The Mets?  When Shea Stadium goes down so does the last link to the "real" New York Mets.  A team defined by an adjective.

Lovable.

From Stengel to Manuel the Mets have progressed from the Bronx Bombers' goofy kid brother to a weird Yankee doppleganger.  Expected to win, heavily financed, and anything but the object of a fan's affection, the Mets now move to (with apologies to the Flying Burrito Brothers) their own gilded palace of sin.  And leave behind the happiness that was the New York Metropolitan Baseball Club (their corporate name).

Are today's Mets lovable?  If your heart skips a beat at the joys of better baseball through corporate accounting.

And so ends an era.

We've traded Eddie Kranepool for Carlos Delgado and lost in the exchange.  David Wright is wonderful player, but no Eddie Charles.  Where have you gone Tom Seaver?  Johan Santana is a poor substitute, even for Dwight Gooden.  Carlos Beltran for Darryl Strawberry?  I wouldn't take Beltran for Lenny Dykstra.

Who has caught a game like Gary Carter?  Or even Choo Choo Coleman, for much different reasons.

How could you not pull for a team with a catcher named Choo Choo?

And how can you pull for an underachieving soap opera of a team constantly on a Wizard of Oz style quest for a heart?  A tupperware bowl full of Omar Minaya's flavorless salsa recipe.

They've even messed up the uniform while forgetting the history behind it.

The Mets hat has the old Giants "NY" in their orange on Dodger blue.  A mix of the powerful Giants and the often amazing Dodgers.  The logo starts on the left with a church spire to represent Brooklyn, followed by the old Williamsburg Bank (the tallest building in Brooklyn).  Then you've got the Woolworth Building, Empire State building, the downtown skyline, and finally the United Nations building. 



You don't notice the Mets logo or cap lettering anymore, buried as it is on a uniform that looks like something a roadie for the Beastie Boys would wear.  Black and blue.  A punk uniform for a souless baseball card collection that folds under pressure.  A bullpen so wretched only Mrs. O'Leary's cow could love.  A team that isn't.

Farewell Shea Stadium.  Too bad you never got the dome you were intended to have.  Or the Continenatl League team you might have had if William Shea's threat hadn't brought the National League back to New York. 

Farewell the Mets.

So long Ron Hunt, who "took one for the team" so many times.  George Theodore, who roamed left field with the grace of a wounded rhinoceros.  Farewell the "Amazing Mets" of 69 and those mad men of the 80's who owned the baseball world and knew it.  At least we have Hernandez and Darling around to keep the memories alive.

Will there be no more Mookie Wilsons?  Is Omar Minaya ever going to give us another Gil Hodges in the dugout?  Did Buddy Harrelson labor all those years at shortstop only to see Jose Reyes throw his legacy over the first baseman into the stands? 

I'll miss those guys.  I miss the smile of Tug McGraw and the good humor of Marv Thornberry.  Stengel's reinvention of English as a second language.  Koosman's poise, Ryan's heat, Davey Johnson's head, and Gil Hodges' heart.

Meet the Mets, Greet the Mets.

And wave goodbye now they are gone.

"Let's do something, even if it's wrong.." Roy Drusky

Something must be done!

And so it was, and so Willie Randolph joins the ranks of the unemployed. And the question you have to ask, the only one that matters, is whether the Mets are better off.

Absolutely, positively, well, probably not.

Because the problem is not Randolph, but General Manager Omar Minaya. The man who assembled the defective machine which failed to deliver a pennant last year or even the hope of one this year. A team with no head or heart.

And no bullpen.

Make no mistake, keeping Randolph wouldn't have changed the situation. Randolph was Gamelin, in charge of the French Army of 1940. On paper he had an edge, in the field, alas, a different story.

Back in the back of the pitching staff, behind Johan Santana and John Maine, stands a fire brigade of arsonists. A bullpen that has yielded 25 home runs. And a surprisingly weak rotation. Grim indeed is the question Nelson Figueroa or Claudio Vargas is the answer to.

Minaya, and not Randolph, rolled out the duct tape which binds this fetid assemblage. It seems he has a rolodex somewhere of every past prime pitcher in the universe. The height of this depth plumbing approach was four horrendous starts by Jose Lima in 2005.  Seventeen innings, 25 hits, 19 earned runs, 10 walks, 12 strikeouts and four losses.  Pregnant women who watched those games will have children who spend their lives flinching at the sound of bat contacting ball.

The signing of Pedro Martinez, for which Minaya has been widely hailed, has been a mixed blessing. The Mets tied up over $52 million in payroll to procure the services of a pitcher widely known to have a bad arm. It paid off in one good season, much less so in three others where the team's rotation and planning have been disrupted by his presence and absence from the roster.

Minaya's other acquistions?  Carlos Delgado. A study in decline. Carlos Beltran. A player who is probably not up to the unique pressures of playing in New York City.  A past his prime Luis Castillo. The dreadful Jorge Sosa who, if one man can cause another to lose his job, more than anyone did in Randolph.

The John Maine trade has to go into the plus column. Xavier Nady for Oliver Perez is starting to look a net loss. Moises Alou, an aging illusion. The loss of Heath Bell, Matt Lindstrom and Dan Wheeler from the bullpen has been a source of constant grief, and likely cost a pennant last year. Billy Wagner is the classic blessing and curse.

Mostly, though, the Minaya Mets are less than the sum of their parts. A team which finds a way to lose, the double play not turned, the weak grounder with two out and men on in the late innings. It is a team no manager could win with.

Was Randolph to blame for not lighting a fire under a listless pile of kindling? Probably. Should he have held pitching coach Rick Peterson to account for the team's pitchers failing at inopportune times? Absolutely.   Should he have found a way to get through to Jose Reyes?  Of course.

But did Randolph deserve to twist in the wind for weeks while Minaya vacillated and the Wilpons schemed?  And does it make sense to replace Randolph with one of his coaches?

Jerry Manuel won't fix the Mets. Nor will anyone else. It is not a time to hope for miracle comebacks, but a time to gut the interior of a badly damaged house and start over.

Without Omar Minaya.

Here we go.

The New York Mets had a three time all-star catcher. Paul LoDuca. They were paying him about six and a quarter extra large, which is what I call $6.25 million after I've watched too many Sopranos reruns. Capice?

Now LoDuca is a home town guy from Brooklyn but the Mets think they can do better. They can't, but that's not the point. The point is LoDuca owns thoroughbred horses and associates with people who bet on horses, and maybe other sporting events, which makes the Mets nervous.

Mind you, the Metropolitans didn't seem to notice when they had a clubhouse attendant running a steroid pharmacy in their club house, but these days you can't be too careful about the company you keep.

So Oscar Minaya bids LoDuca a not so fond farewell and sets about finding a replacement.

The catcher the Mets wanted was Yorvit Torrealba. The prospect of having a catcher whose name sounds like you have a mouth full of food was too good to pass up. YT hung that huge two five five with eight dingers and forty-seven ribbies in Rock City last season (which is how I talk after accidently listening to just ten minutes of Rich Rome). Guys like that don't come by every day. They come along every other day and sometimes twice on Thursday, but that's neither here nor there.

Torrealba wouldn't sign for the $14.3 million over 3 years the Mets offered. Instead he held out for a two year, $6.75 million deal with Colorado. This should be enough for him to buy a really good pocket calculator, after which he'll probably also get a new agent.

Back to square one.

Guillermo Mota didn't do much to earn his paycheck last season and there is some doubt as to whether he is an example of better pitching through chemistry. Boom, out goes $3.2 million worth of the kind of trouble you don't need. In comes a catcher, a $3.4 million Johnny Estrada.

For those of you keeping score at home, the Mets are now up $6.3 million and have filled the catcher spot. We'll assume Mota will be replaced by some $2 million piece of veteran free agent flotsam and jetsam, but New York is still up $4.3 million. Plus, they have a catcher so the ball won't keep rolling to the back stop every time the Mets pitchers throw the ball. At least most of the time. Estrada also gives the Mets a capable hitter to replace LoDuca.

Still, you have to wonder when someone is traded from Atlanta to Arizona and Arizona to Milwaukee and Milwaukee to the Mets in less time than Michael Vick is probably going to be sentenced to. Me thinks something is rotten in Denmark, (the new Hamlet DVD is out, don't ask).

In 2007 Estrada had physical problems with his knee, and personality problems with Milwaukee manager Ned Yost. There was a big blowup in the dugout and the Brewers wanted Estrada out bad enough to sign Jason Kendall, which is pretty bad. Kendall took a $9 million pay cut to sign, the market for .242 hitting catchers not being what it once was.

"Johnny adds depth to our catching situation," Minaya said in a statement. "He's a former All-Star who switch hits and has hit over .300 three times in his career [counting 2003, when Estrada had only 36 at-bats and hit .306]."

That's what Minaya said ten days ago. Here's what he said today, announcing the acquisition of Nationals catcher Brian Schneider and outfielder Ryan Church in exchange for outfield prospect Lastings Milledge:

"I thought we needed to change it up a little," New York general manager Omar Minaya said. "Names like Schneider and Church are not known names, but they give us balance." It is thought the Mets will now drop or trade Estrada, especially since they are paying two catchers $7 million to replace LoDuca, which is the exact amount they couldn't afford to continue paying him.

Now then. The only way Schneider could start something with a bat in his hand would be if someone gave him another bat and he rubbed them together to start a fire. Milledge is either a sure fire prospect who will be a big star or a head case who will end up working at Big Star. You roll the dice, you take your chances.

Church hit 15-70-.272 in a very big park (RFK stadium) and should be a positive addition for the Mets. But his career best year came at age 28 and his upside may be what we saw in '07.

At the end of the day, these deals aren't about getting the Mets players they like. They are about getting rid of two players (LoDuca and Milledge) they didn't like. And if it took a $7 million trip to the land of a thousand catchers to be rid of them, then so be it.

Take this to the bank (but don't let them sign you to a flexible mortgage). The Mets now are weaker at catcher, they have a hole in their bullpen you could bury an elephant in, and they let go of maybe the best young outfield prospect in baseball, all in exchange for two broken down catchers and Ryan Church.

What we know about these deals is largely unknown. What is unknown is knowable, but not immediately. What cannot be known is not knowable, even by those in the know. We don't know how many unknown variables are at play.

All I know is I have to stop watching that "Best of Donald Rumsfeld DVD" I ordered online from National Review, and the Mets may miss the playoffs again next year if this keeps up.

9.12.07 Mets 4 Braves 3 Tenth win in 12 games, moves to 9 ½ game lead over Atlanta. Shawn Green gets game winning single. "We're obviously in the driver's seat and we want to close it out as soon as we can and focus on the postseason," Green said.

9.14.07 Phillies 3 Mets 2 Greg Dobbs hits sac fly in 10th for win. “You kind of walk away with an empty feeling," Starter Tom Glavine said. "But for me, personally, there's not a lot I can do. You just go out there and try and pitch well, give us an opportunity to win the game."

9.15.07 Phillies 5 Mets 3 Carlos Beltran misplays a fly ball into a triple by Jimmy Rollins. "I took one step forward and that was it," said Beltran, “It's a bad read and after I took that one step forward the ball went over my head."

9.16.07 Phillies 10 Mets 3 Greg Dobbs hit a pinch hit grand slam in the 6th. "A bad time we picked to play bad baseball," manager Willie Randolph said. "We were there about two weeks ago and we responded and I'm sure we'll respond the same way this time."

9.17.07 Nationals 12 Mets 4 Brian Schneider, a .233 hitter walked. Pinch hitter hits one through Wright’s legs. Shoeneweiss throws a bunt into right field letting two runs score. Randolph: “I’m not angry. We’re trying hard. Maybe too hard. We’ll just regroup.”

9.18.07 National 9 Mets 8 John Maine loses 7-3 lead. "Everyone did their job but me," Maine said. "I didn't hold my end up."

9.19.07 Mets 8 National 4 The day before the Mets had a closed door meeting. Catcher Paul LoDuca: "You can talk all you want. And you can say all you want. You can have every cliche in the book or whatever, but it just matters that you've got to get 27 outs, and you've got to win the ballgame. I don't care how you do it."

9.20.07 Florida 8 Mets 7 The Mets lose two 3 run leads before falling in 10 on a Dan Uggla double off the scoreboard. Things are not going our way," center fielder Carlos Beltran said. "It seems like every team comes back on us real easy."

9.21.07 Mets 9 Florida 6 New York takes advantage of six errors for 8 unearned runs. "Good teams need to create breaks and take advantage of opportunities," Carlos Delgado said. "They kicked the ball around a couple of times, and we took advantage of that and came up with big hits in big situations."

9.22.07 Mets 7 Florida 2 Oliver Perez went 8 innings in front of a crowd made up mainly of New York fans. "It's a great feeling when you go on the road and have so many fans pulling for you," Mets slugger Carlos Beltran said.

9.23.07 Mets 7 Florida 6 Carlos Delgado’s 3 run HR is highlight of 4 run eight. "The way we've battled is very pleasing, to pick up a game, knock another day off the schedule and just get back home," Randolph said. "We're looking forward to it. We get a chance to hopefully celebrate with our fans."

9.24.07 Washington 13 Mets 4 Nine walks, 13 hits, and a 3 run home run by Ryan Langerhaus. “It's embarrassing with the season on the line to go out there and get embarrassed on your own home field," said David Wright.

9.25.07 Washington 10 Mets 9 Mets rally for 6 in the 9th but Paul LoDuca flies out with the tying run on third base. "It doesn't mean a thing. I don't care if you lose by eight runs or one, it's still a loss," Lo Duca said. "We've got to fix it. We've got to fix it quick."

9.26.07 Washington 9 Mets 6 The crowd boos throughout the later innings after the Mets squander a 5-2 lead early. “It’s hard to believe.” Beltran said “Unbelievable.”

9.27.07 St. Louis 3 Mets 0 Joel Pineiro shuts the Mets down on 3 hits and Isringhausen closes out for the Cardinals. Starter Pedro Martinez remains optimistic. "I think we're due to have something special happen to us because in the time I've been here I don't think we've had a little stretch playing games like that and kind of getting away from us that easy so I'm expecting something good to happen."

9.28.07 Florida 7 Mets 4 David Wright couldn’t find the bag with his foot on a crucial infield play and Oliver Perez hit two batters with the bases loaded. "It doesn't feel real good right now but we've still got to get a win so we can have a chance," manager Willie Randolph said. "We don't know what's going to happen down the pipe but we have to take care of ourself first."

9.29.07 Mets 13 Florida 0 John Maine struck out 14 and carried a no-hitter 2 outs into the 8th. Lastings Milledge homered twice and there was a bench clearing brawl in the 5th.   "We needed a stopper and he was our guy," David Wright said. "Hopefully, it's not too little too late."

9.30.07 Florida 8 Mets 1 Tom Glavine 1/3 inning 5 hits, 2 walks, 7 runs. "It's something that's going to take a while for us to get over," said Glavine.

There are home runs and then there are HOME RUNS. Adam Dunn of the Reds hit a HOME RUN yesterday. Not one of those line drive, excuse me sir, can you please show me the way to the foul pole home runs. But a real live, Roy Hobbs, blow up the score board HOME RUN.

Nobody on (it's the Reds, nobody is ever on) and Oliver Perez pitching for the Mets in the 4th. Perez is a power pitcher who is thinking he can blow the ball by Dunn, who is usually good for about 125 strikeouts a year. Dunn is thinking he can go deep, which he does about 40 times a season. Perez was wrong, Dunn was right.

Like most accidents, it happened so fast you weren't sure that you saw what your eyes took in. Perez challenged Dunn and the "Big Donkey" (hey, I don't pick the nicknames) put one off the scoreboard in right. Blew out two sets of scoreboard lights and left them swinging off the end of their electrical connections. Visibly dented the scoreboard. I don't know if the ball was rising when it hit, but I do know it wasn't falling.

It is 378 feet to the power alleys in Shea. If you look at the photo you will see the scoreboard is about sixty feet or so back (Mets fans, I'm guessing about this so if you have been there and know how far it really is leave a comment). Fifty feet up sounds about right for where the ball hit. Officially, the papers have the homer at 450 feet.

Is 450 feet 450? Is it based on where the ball hit, or where it would have landed? Customs are changing, with most teams figuring distance on where the ball would have landed if it had not hit an obstruction. If that's how the Mets figure it, Dunn was robbed. If it's 450 out to the fence, then it would have gone 500 feet to a landing site in the parking lot.

However you measure the "shot heard around FSN", it was a thing of beauty and a joy to behold. That sounds like a cliche, but there was a joy to watching Dunn's blast, a joy known only to baseball fans. It's a happiness that transcends the game itself (Reds lost 5-2).

It's a great story to tell. I just saw it on TV, but for those who were at Shea it will become legendary. Over the years grandchildren will hear the story. It will go from 450 to 475, from 50 feet up the scoreboard to 70. From two broken fixtures it will grow to a spark raining, glass shattering, life threatening crash that could be heard five miles away from the stadium. It will become, justifiably, a thing of memory.

I still remember Reggie Jackson's home run in the All-Star Game in Detroit that went to the roof of that enormous old stadium. Harmon Killebrew's home runs could have brought rain, so majestic was their arc. My favorite, though was a wind blown drive in Greensboro hit by a skinny Pirate prospect named Willie Greene. He got under the ball and crushed it, then the wind did the rest. It seemed to rise forever and went so far that nobody saw it land. Maybe it never did.

Baseball isn't a fast game, the moments of excitement rest in splendid cushions of small detail. Pundits say it isn't even America's game anymore. But there is still the home run. And on an afternoon in New York, that was just enough to approach sporting perfection.  Babe Ruth would have been proud.

You have to like the underdog. Not pulling for the little guy is not an option in these parts. This is America. It's part of the social contract. Unless you're a heartless narcissist. Or a Yankee fan. I apologize in advance if anyone is offended by that last remark. Some of my best friends are heartless narcissists.

Which brings me to Lino Urdaneta, relief pitcher, New York Mets. I was happy to see the 27 year old Venezuelan finally make it back to the show, if for no other reason than he held the dubious distinction of never having retired a single major league batter. Not one. OK, he only faced 8 batters back in 2004 with the Tigers but still, the guy was due. In an imperfect world Lino was perfect. In an imperfect sort of way. Exactly the kind of minor league lifer everyone wants to see make good.

Mets GM Omar Minaya reaches into the minors each summer and finds the most interesting players. Last year it was Jose Lima, this year Urdaneta. In the big "U", Minaya found an 11 year minor league veteran of 17 teams who somehow managed to pitch at least part of every year since 1999 in "A" ball. That's the equivalent of repeating first grade. Eight times.

It wasn't just that Urdaneta stayed in the low minors longer than Annie Savoy. It's the complete lack of results, even facing batters several years younger. But teams saw decent velocity and movement and overlooked the stats. A 5.84 ERA in New Orleans doesn't normally warrant a call up, but it was a way for the Mets to fill a short gap without wasting options on younger and more talented Mets minor league hurlers.

So it came to be In early May Lino finally got a major league hitter out. Three of them in fact. Gave up 2 hits and a run over one innings work spread over consecutive nights against Arizona and San Francisco. Then Monday, numbers and a healthy Ambrioux Burgos caught up to Urdaneta. Back to New Orleans to await the next big adventure. Which won't come any time soon.

On Wednesday Major League Baseball announced Urdaneta had been suspended for 50 games after testing positive for a performance enhancing substance.

Why? After all the warnings, after all the media coverage, knowing the tests are coming why does a player get involved with any kind of drug? Why did Lino Urdaneta punch in hole in the bottom of his own boat? And what benefit did it have for his pitching?

You can reach for the easy assumption and say Urdaneta's judgement is poor. That he was willing to risk anything to get back to the majors. Maybe he didn't understand the drug testing procedures, or thought he could mask his usage. Could be he took something he didn't understand was a banned substance. Maybe the language barrier played a part.

Now Lino Urdaneta has the mark of steroids on him. He doesn't hit like Barry Bonds or Jason Giambi. He's not an elite pitcher, or even a marginal pitcher, or even a prospect. Now he's a suspect. Permanently. Urdaneta has gone 3-0 on his career and the odds of getting three in a row over the plate at 27 don't look promising.

There is supposed to be a lesson here. There isn't. Performance enhancement drugs don't always enhance performance. But they do shorten careers. Even one that was already as short as Lino Urdaneta's.

I couldn't figure out why the Braves would trade Adam LaRoche to Pittsburgh.  A 27 year old power hitter with 32 HR and a .285 average last year gone for a reliever.  Granted, Mike Gonzalez isn't any reliever.  Try a power pitching lefthanded reliever, a rare combination that led to a 2.17 ERA and 64 strikeouts in 54 innings.

Still, you wonder about trading an everyday player with LaRoche's power for a reliever, even in these relief obsessed days.  Most blogs and media coverage I've read think the Pirates got a steal, which is what I thought at first.  Then the other shoe fell.

That shoe belongs to Craig Wilson, a longtime Pirate but last season a New York Yankee backup first baseman.  Who hit 17 HR in just 359 at bats in Pittsburgh and came relatively cheap ($2 million plus incentives).

Now that all the puzzle pieces are on the table they start to fit.  Piece one-the Braves have either a new closer or a very good lefthanded setup man who will make closer Bob Wickman's life easier. Come the 8th and 9th innings Atlanta will have an answer for batters on either side of the plate, a major shortcoming last season.

Having Wilson means a low pressure entry into the lineup for Scott Thorman, who tore up AAA last season at Richmond and will probably be able to platoon with Wilson this year at first base.  Thorman shows up big, Wilson adds a stick in the outfield in addition to being an emergency catcher (his original position).

If Atlanta GM John Schuerholz had stood pat on LaRoche he wouldn't have much more production than he'll get from Thorman and Wilson.  He also wouldn't have Gonzalez, who was coveted by several teams, including the Yankees.  And he basically plugged in two young players with combined salaries of less than $1 million plus a $2 million bargain in Wilson in exchange for a player who was probably headed out of Atlanta as after the 2008 season.

What does it all mean?  Perhaps that reports of the Braves demise may have been exaggerated. They return the heart o####ood, mostly young, lineup coupled with deep pitching to compete with the Mets (who have good young position players and questionable pitching).  The Braves could be the Cassius of the NL East in 2007.  They have a lean and hungry look.  Don't start printing Subway Series tickets just yet.

Jose Lima's pitching line tonight against the Marlins says it all:

3 IP 7 H 5 ER 2 BB 2 KO 71 Pitches

The home run by Dontrelle Willis just sort of  put a nice exclamation point on the evening.

What's next?

Luis Tiant.  After all, his ERA during his last season was just 4.08.  Granted, that season was in 1982 with the California Angels but there is at least a 50-50 chance that he can pitch the kind of game Lima pitched tonight.  Besides, 66 is the new 56.

Somewhere in Mexico Fernando Valenzuela sits by his phone.  The kids know not to pick up the phone, his wife has told her friends only to use her cell phone number for now.  Surely the call will come. 

          ACN  (Havana Cuba)  
 

President Fidel Castro today pronounced himself "surprised at how much is still left in the tank" after throwing a sixty pitch simulated game against the Cuban national baseball team.  Mets GM  Omar Minaya spoke briefly with reporters after the workout.  "We have some concerns about his age (79) but he can still bring it from the left and he is a Latin American pitcher.   Besides, we think we can get three innings out him, which is what we are looking for in a number five pitcher."

In other Mets news, the team announced today that they had traded for the rights to Martin Dihigo, the great Cuban pitcher who died in 1971.  "We are somewhat concerned by that, sure, any team would be.", said a spokesman, "But he was 18-2 with a 0.90 ERA in 1938 and won the Mexican League batting crown with a .387 average.  You have to factor that in."

Mets minor league pitcher Jason Scobie today announced that he had legally changed his name to Diego Garcia Maradona Vazquez~.  Speaking in a thick accent which betrayed his Texas upbringing, Scobie denied having been born in Toledo, Ohio and claimed his actual age was 37, not 28.  Later admitting the ruse to reporters Scobie explained,  "I was 1-11 with a 7.91 ERA at Norfolk.  I didn't see any other way to make the Mets this season."

No word on the Mets future plans for Lima, although he and his band are appearing at Big Ernie's LaGuardia Motor Inn and Lounge in New York.  Lima's rendition of the Roy Orbison standard "It's Over" is said to be playing to standing ovations from patrons.

ACN

 

Maybe New York felt guilty.  After all, those Dutch guys did pull a fast one on the native Americans unless those were really, really good beads and trinkets.  Getting Babe Ruth from Boston for the cash to produce a Broadway show was a steal.  How to attone for it?  I know,  trade Scott Kazmir out of town for Victor Zambrano.

It really wasn't guilt.  It was greed.  The kind of pennant induced lust that makes you believe you are one pitcher away from playing in October.  That's the reason the Mets traded Kazmir on July 30, 2004 to Tampa Bay for Victor Zambrano and Bartolome Fortunato.  Zambrano stretched out 14 innings worth of work over 3 starts and the Mets faded like a water color in the rain (darned Al Stewart songs really get in your head sometimes).  Fortunato has been a serviceable reliever whose name might become famous.  If it's used for a character in 'The Sopranos'.

At 28 Zambrano had potential.  In a year he had the potential to be 29.  The right hander went 7-12 last year and now he's 30 and on the disabled list.   He may eventually have a winning season.  And hydrogen filled airships may once again linger in the skys over New York.

But it must have made sense at the time, right?  Wrong.  Zambrano's walks and hits to innings pitched (WHP) ratio as a starter was never below 1.43, his ERA hung up around 5 like a neon sign that said "average".  And he only had two seasons as a big league starter.  But he was a big right hander who looked like he should be a good pitcher.  Appearance is everything, at least to some organization's scouts.

Kazmir may be the six foot he's listed at if he stretches and might weigh 170 with an anvil in his pocket.  So the wise old heads who inhabit front offices decided that he probably wouldn't amount to that much since he was too small to be a durable and effective big league starter.  Like Roy Oswalt.  Who is six foot tall and weighs 170 pounds.

In 178 minor league innings prior to the trade Kazmir had struck out 232 hitters.  He had yielded only 6 home runs.  Perhaps the hitters Kazmir faced didn't have the knowledge of the game to understand that a short, slightly built lefty could not be that effective.  Not everyone can be a big league scout or executive.  It takes a special sort of genius to appreciate that Victor Zambrano is superior to Scott Kazmir.  (Hold it, the red sarcasm alert screen won't go off.  There, got it.  Now where were we?).

Did I mention that Kazmir is left handed?  Lefty power pitchers are a scarce commodity.  Some teams have not a single left hander in their rotations.  Even bad left handers have long careers based on how badly teams need their services.  The Mets signed Billy Wagner to a $43 million, 4 year contract.  Why?  He's a lefty who throws heat.  Like Scott Kazmir.

So now it's 2006.  Here is Kazmir's pitching line:

6 wins  2 losses  2.73 ERA 56 IP 56 KO

Meanwhile, the Mets are considering trading Lastings Miledge (a 5 tool outfield prospect) for a pitcher to replace Zambrano.  History repeats itself. 

The moral of the story is this.  Teams may find themselves one player away from a pennant.  But even knowing which player that is can be very difficult.  Zambrano was not that player.  Larry Anderson was not for the RedSox when they traded him for Jeff Bagwell.  Mortgaging the future for mid-season relief is not a good idea.

Finally, it's not the size of the pitcher that counts.  It's innings, hits, runs, strikeouts, and walks.  They don't lie.  And all of them argued against the Zambrano for Kazmir trade.  Nobody in the Mets front office listened.