A GM, J.P. Ricciardi of Toronto, publicly bashing Adam Dunn of the Reds on a call-in show. Not something you see every day. If there is an opposite of tampering, this was it.
Here's Ricciardi on Dunn:
"We've done our homework on guys like Adam Dunn and there's a reason we don't want Adam Dunn."
"Do you know the guy (Dunn) doesn't like baseball that much? Do you know he doesn't have a passion to play the game that much?"
Should Ricciardi have been that candid with a Blue Jays fan? Of course not. It did nothing for the Toronto Blue Jays. And agents of future free agents probably didn't admire his candor.
But this was a rare glimpse into how big league general managers view players. And even though Ricciardi apologized afterward, it raises some interesting questions.
Since, as Dunn pointed out, Ricciardi doesn't know him, where did the damning evaluation come from? Here's a hint. Dunn has only played for one organization in his career. The Cincinnati Reds.
Who defended Dunn, a free agent after this season, afterwards? Not Reds GM Walt Jocketty.
"I'd rather not comment. You look at his
run production. But it's not my position to give a scouting report on
him. I like him as a player. He's someone we're going to have to decide
on. He's still young, so that's not a factor."
Nothing about how hard Dunn plays, or doesn't. Not a word about his passion for the game, or lack thereof. Dusty Baker did manage to describe Dunn as a "gentle giant".
How does Ricciardi know Dunn "doesn't even like baseball that much"? Ricciardi's information comes from somewhere. And while Dunn has every right to be mad at the Blue Jays GM, he should be more concerned with who in Cincinnati believes the Reds slugger isn't that into the game.
Who are these "players like Adam Dunn"? Are we talking about power hitters with an all or nothing approach to hitting? Players with low batting averages and good on base percentages? Physically large players? Players with questionable attitudes?
Who knows? But it is safe to say there are a lot of teams who will be interested in a player like Adam Dunn when he becomes a free agent. Just not the Blue Jays or Reds, apparently.
Here's the balance sheet on Dunn:
Four straight seasons at 40 home runs and at least 90 RBI, should make five this season.
One hundred fourteen walks per 162 games and 181 strikeouts.
A lifetime on base percentage of .381.
A range factor in left field substantially above the league average.
Twenty-seven years old, and no noticeable decline in stats.
Relatively healthy throughout his career.
What's not to like?
It comes down to this. Dunn easily fits a stereotype. The big swinger who goes for broke.
If you believe home runs are the big guns in an offense's arsenal, and walks are as good as hits, you have a place on your team for Dunn. If you think a strikeout is a momentum stopping offense killer and that baseball is about putting the ball in play, you hate Dunn.
Think that anyone over 6'1" is a lumbering Neanderthal who isn't hustling and doesn't care about the game, or that quiet equals disinterested and you have a reason not to spend on Dunn. Or, maybe, to hope nobody else does and you can bring him back to the Reds at a discount.
You can make a case for or against Adam Dunn. J.P. Ricciardi has made his decision, and I'm guessing the Reds have. But before they publicly bash Dunn or give him luke warm support, they ought to consider that someone will sign him in 2009. It might even be a team that comes to Cincinnati or Toronto in a key series.
There are home runs and then there are HOME RUNS. Adam Dunn of the Reds hit a HOME RUN yesterday. Not one of those line drive, excuse me sir, can you please show me the way to the foul pole home runs. But a real live, Roy Hobbs, blow up the score board HOME RUN.
Nobody on (it's the Reds, nobody is ever on) and Oliver Perez pitching for the Mets in the 4th. Perez is a power pitcher who is thinking he can blow the ball by Dunn, who is usually good for about 125 strikeouts a year. Dunn is thinking he can go deep, which he does about 40 times a season. Perez was wrong, Dunn was right.
Like most accidents, it happened so fast you weren't sure that you saw what your eyes took in. Perez challenged Dunn and the "Big Donkey" (hey, I don't pick the nicknames) put one off the scoreboard in right. Blew out two sets of scoreboard lights and left them swinging off the end of their electrical connections. Visibly dented the scoreboard. I don't know if the ball was rising when it hit, but I do know it wasn't falling.
It is 378 feet to the power alleys in Shea. If you look at the photo you will see the scoreboard is about sixty feet or so back (Mets fans, I'm guessing about this so if you have been there and know how far it really is leave a comment). Fifty feet up sounds about right for where the ball hit. Officially, the papers have the homer at 450 feet.
Is 450 feet 450? Is it based on where the ball hit, or where it would have landed? Customs are changing, with most teams figuring distance on where the ball would have landed if it had not hit an obstruction. If that's how the Mets figure it, Dunn was robbed. If it's 450 out to the fence, then it would have gone 500 feet to a landing site in the parking lot.
However you measure the "shot heard around FSN", it was a thing of beauty and a joy to behold. That sounds like a cliche, but there was a joy to watching Dunn's blast, a joy known only to baseball fans. It's a happiness that transcends the game itself (Reds lost 5-2).
It's a great story to tell. I just saw it on TV, but for those who were at Shea it will become legendary. Over the years grandchildren will hear the story. It will go from 450 to 475, from 50 feet up the scoreboard to 70. From two broken fixtures it will grow to a spark raining, glass shattering, life threatening crash that could be heard five miles away from the stadium. It will become, justifiably, a thing of memory.
I still remember Reggie Jackson's home run in the All-Star Game in Detroit that went to the roof of that enormous old stadium. Harmon Killebrew's home runs could have brought rain, so majestic was their arc. My favorite, though was a wind blown drive in Greensboro hit by a skinny Pirate prospect named Willie Greene. He got under the ball and crushed it, then the wind did the rest. It seemed to rise forever and went so far that nobody saw it land. Maybe it never did.
Baseball isn't a fast game, the moments of excitement rest in splendid cushions of small detail. Pundits say it isn't even America's game anymore. But there is still the home run. And on an afternoon in New York, that was just enough to approach sporting perfection. Babe Ruth would have been proud.
Ken Griffey Jr is enjoying a resurgence, both on the field and in terms of popularity. More than a few sports writers and blogger who have followed the Reds outfielder's approach to the 600 HR mark have presented him as the "anti-Bonds", a hitter whose accomplishments come without any taint of scandal.
Griffey has passed Reggie Jackson, Rafael Palmeiro, Harmon Killebrew, and Mark McGwire in home runs this season. Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, Mike Schmidt, Willie McCovey, and Jimmie Foxx have long since fallen in his wake. Currently #7 in homers, Griffey is just one short of Frank Robinson and will undoubtedly pass Sammy Sosa and maybe even WIllie Mays before he retires. Babe Ruth, 129 ahead of Junior, would be reachable only if Griffey prolongs his career beyond age 40.
Does this put Griffey in the top 10 players of all-time? From day to day baseball is a home run obsessed game, but careers tend to be judged by more than a single stat. Here is how Griffey ranks in some of the game's most important categories.
HR 585 (#7) Should finish #5, a long shot to reach #3.
RBI 1661 (#21) 200 more RBI would put him at 1861, #11 of all-time just behind Willie Mays. The rankings are tightly bunched at this point with room to move up even more, but it's hard to see Griffey getting 290 more RBI to pass Stan Musial for #6. Ironically, Griffey and Musial share the same birthplace, Donora PA.
BA .291 (#348) If anything, this number will probably drop off some more before Griffey retires. One comparison nobody seems to make with Bonds is that, unlike the controversial Giants slugger, Griffey is not regarded as a great hitter. A great power hitter, but not a pure hitter. This is not to say Griffey isn't a very good batter, #63 in walks and #85 in hits.
SB 180 (#390) Early in his career Griffey was good for 15 to 20 steals a season. Partly to avoid injury and partly from a loss of speed, it's unlikely the Red and Mariners great will notch even ten more steals the rest of his career.
SLG % .558 (#23) It's hard to evaluate this stat. The modern game has tilted so much toward power that the top 25 list is dotted with a number of very good, but perhaps not great, recent players. Todd Helton is at #10, Manny Ramirez #8, Vladimir Guerrero #11, Larry Walker #15, Albert Belle #16, Jim Thome #17, Frank Thomas #18, Juan Gonzalez #20, and Lance Berkman #22. What does it mean to be #23, behind this group?
Runs 1513 (#56) A speed-power batter, Griffey has always been a reliable producer of runs on the bases and at bat. It isn't hard to imagine his reaching 1700 and cracking the top 25.
You can't mention Ken Griffey without discussing his injuries. They have been legion and may be the difference in a Top 10 player of all time rating and Top 25. It's hard to imagine, but Griffey (37) has not played 130 games in a season since he was 30 years old.
Where does that leave Ken Griffey Jr.? Not in the top 10, because he was never the consistent hitter that the best were. Not in the second 10 with the likes of Frank Robinson, Mel Ott, or Eddie Collins. Somewhere in the mid-20's sounds right, not too far away from a player he resembled on the field and in terms of injuries, Mickey Mantle.
With the Barry Bonds controversy it's understandable that some want to make the likeable Ken Griffey seem greater than he is to make a good versus evil comparison. But as good as Ken Griffey is, he's no Barry Bonds. What he is, however, is one of the top 25 players of all time and a lock for Cooperstown. Which isn't bad. Not bad at all.
Austin Kearns, the Reds right fielder has been traded to the Nationals as part of an eight player deal. The Reds also gave up starting shortstop Felipe Lopez and relief prospect Ryan Wagner in exchange for middle relievers Gary Majewski and Bill Bray, shortstop Royce Clayton, second baseman Brendan Harris, and minor league pitcher Daryl Thompson.
Wait a minute. Two starting position players and a young relief prospect for two middle relievers, a replacement (36 year old) shortstop, a decent young second baseman, and a minor league pitcher. If this was a roto league trade the commissioner would have to step in and void it. You don't give away what the Reds did for a commodity (middle relief pitching) that your minor league system should routinely resupply you with.
But it isn't a roto trade. It is a serious sign that the Reds front office under new GM Wayne Krivsky wants to send a message. They want players to know management believes they can take the NL Central, or at least a wild card bid, this season. The Reds offense has been firing on all cylinders this year, the starting rotation has been upgraded to 'not horrible', and there is a new attitude around the team. Krivsky sent the message-the Reds are back.
But Austin Kearns? Where do you find the 16 HR and 50 RBI Kearns produced? How do you replace a 26 year old slugger you've waited for the last three seasons to see develop? And what of Lopez (9-30-.268 23 SB)? Clayton is a decent replacement for an average shortstop, but Lopez is hardly an average shortstop and is entering his prime at 26.
Relief pitching was costing the Reds games. There is no doubt this trade, coupled with the acquistion of Eddie Guardado from the Mariners to close, puts the bullpen in good order. Majewski posted good numbers in 79 games last year and 46 so far this year. But it begs the question, at this pace won't Majewski run out of gas in August?
Maybe the players at the margins tilted it for the Reds. Harris will likely replace Clayton next season and has shown good pop for a middle infielder in the minors. Bray is likely the next closer and even better, a lefthander. Thompson is seen by scouts as a developing diamond in the rough, but is realistically three years away from the majors.
Then again, you never know. Did the Reds believe they could sign Kearns and Lopez long-term? Did some of the past frustration with Kearns linger even after he put his game together this year? Was the comment Krivsky made about new shortstop Royce Clayton "playing the game right" a knock on the inconsistent Lopez?
Does this put the NL Central in play for the Reds? I don't think so. I don't see how they replace the lost production from Kearns and Lopez and I doubt Majewski and Bray can overcome the fundamental problem with the Reds pitching, which is what goes on with the starters on the mound.
The Reds went 9-20 in June. They can fall back to earth, which would be the expected pattern. Or they can shore up the bullpen, develop some confidence in themselves, and hang in all the way through September. Say what you like about the trade, and I have my doubts about it, it's a bold move. You have to hand to Krivsky. He sees the NL Central laying right out in the open on the table. He intends for the Reds to grab it and run.
Willy Mo Pena from the Reds to the RedSox for Bronson Arroyo. I like it. Gutsy move from both teams to fill a need. Unusual for this early in the season but if something needs doing why not get it done?
Pena is a not a superstar prospect. Maybe just a star prospect from a power hitting perspective. He demolishes left handers and will strike fear in the hearts of those who already have to worry about the Green Monster in Fenway. Pena has only been able to get 300 or so at bats each year in the Reds crowded outfield picture, but has launched 45 home runs the past two seasons.
But I wonder. Why will this be his third team at 24 (orginally signed by the Yankees)? Do his stats last season (19 HR against 26 in 2004) indicate a regression already? Is his strikeouts to walks ratio (288-54) an indication of things to come? When I saw him on TV last season he often looked overmatched.
The Reds had room to make this deal. Adam Dunn has already moved over to 1b, but Scott Hatteberg could fill in there if he had to return to LF. Ryan Freel can play there as well, and would give Tony Womack more at bats at second base. Cincinnati has one of the best offenses in baseball. But no pitching to translate runs to wins.
Bronson Arroyo is more than just rotation filler. Arroyo is a 28 year old 14 game winner who doesn't have alot of innings built up on his arm. Better still for a pitcher at the Great American Ballpark, he kept the ball in play last season, giving up only 22 HR in 205 innings. Not one of the top 15 pitchers in the league, but good enough to be a major upgrade for the Reds.
There is one thing I don't like about this deal. Arroyo loved Boston and the RedSox and signed for a discount because he wanted to come back to the team. So RedSox management rewarded him by taking advantage of him and shipping him off. It isn't a move that will play well in the clubhouse.
I suspect there is another deal coming. You don't trade a Manny Ramirez without a replacement being available. Pena is that replacement. Something tells me the Mets are probably burning up the wires to Boston even now. New York has pitching to give and Ramirez would bring quality and maybe even quantity back the other way. Ramirez wouldn't mind heading west, so maybe the Angels will be in the hunt.
Ah, springtime! The start of the regular season is a few weeks away. This is a bold, mid-season level trade. Hard not to be excited about it whether you're a Reds or Mets fan or just someone sitting watching the rain and feeling the 41 degree temperatures in North Carolina. Time to play ball.
