I'm a big fan of Barry Zito. He's accomplished something many did not think possible.
He made me sound like I knew what I was talking about.
This is a story about blogging, pitching, baseball economics, talent evaluation, and feeling bad about being right. Back when Zito was a free agent I predicted he would disappoint his new employer. Then again, I also said GM's should pass up Zito for Jason Schmidt, so it's not like I'm Nostradamus. Or clairvoyant (although I think I onced dated Clair's sister, but that's a whole other blog).
"One day you're sitting there counting the owner's millions and the next
thing you know Scott Boras shows up in his shark skin suit, with his
shark's smile, and suddenly you believe that you really will be kicking yourself if you don't give Barry Zito $100 million on a seven year deal."
(For the record, it ended up being 7 years and $126 million).
"First, Zito isn't that good, despite Boras' book and second if you're
going to start dealing with snakes you might as well put that money in
a nice reptile farm in Florida."
(OK, with the price of gas going up maybe the reptile farm isn't doing so well,either.)
"...do you want to pay for current production, or compensate him for
what he did with Oakland? Which is pitch 200+ innings 7 years in a row.
If you give him a 7 year contract you're essentially saying he will be
able to piece together 14 seasons with over 200 innings."
(This part still amazes me. The Giants apparently thought they were signing Warren Spahn.)
"We're talking about a pitcher whose walks are up to nearly 100 (99 to
be exact) and his strikeouts (151) are headed down. Then there are the
25 or so homeruns he's given up the past three seasons with half his
games in a pitchers ballpark."
(The point is, I'm not that smart. I knew this, you knew this, it was there in black and white on the printed page. What were the Giants thinking, or more to the point, why weren't they thinking?)
So here it is 2008. Zito's record last year was 11-13 with a 4.54 ERA. This season, 0-6 7.53. His pitching coach said he's lost velocity and will have to learn to be Jamie Moyer. The press is excoriating the Giants. Zito himself has been mostly silent, agent Scott Boras has not been heard from.
There are questions. Why DID they Giants think Zito was worth that much money when virtually nobody else did? Who were they bidding against? Did Boras really think his comparisons of Zito to Koufax were realistic? And who will now ever pay top dollar to a pitcher represented by Boras?
And most importantly what of Zito?
This is the part I feel badly about. Barry Zito is one of the good guys. He started a charity which benefits injured servicemen and women. He's a good quote for the media, a fun guy, a good teammate. If fate parceled out success based on who deserved it, Zito would win the Cy Young.
And that's the point we miss. In blogging we often reduce things to good versus evil, heroes and bums. There is resentment toward Zito over his salary as if he broke into the Giants offices and took the money with a gun to somebody's head. He didn't, and you can't really even blame Boras because he was doing what agents are supposed to do.
If Zito was cut tomorrow the most common reaction was what took so long? Like Pirates fans who wanted Matt Morris run out of town on the first available rail, Giants fans are out of patience with their $126 million pitcher.
Which is why I hope I get to write another blog sometime next year. About Zito getting back to where he was with Oakland. Something about how he made adjustments and battled through. And something about just how wrong I was way back when.
I know, it's not likely to happen. But wouldn't it be nice if it did?
Baseball GM's need brokers. Someone to shield them from the market, to keep them away from the hustlers calling from some boiler room in Honduras in the middle of the night offering to let them in on the "next big thing". One day you're sitting there counting the owner's millions and the next thing you know Scott Boras shows up in his shark skin suit, with his shark's smile, and suddenly you believe that you really will be kicking yourself if you don't give Barry Zito $100 million on a seven year deal.
"He seems like he knows what he's talking about", you tell the owner on the phone. "He has this book that compares Zito's numbers to Sandy Koufax at the same age, and he keeps getting cell phone calls from the Angels and Rangers (or at least he says it's the Angels and Rangers), and he told me if he walks out this meeting without a deal we can wave good bye to the World Series for the next decade. What am I supposed to do?"
OK, as your baseball broker I'll tell you what you should do. Sit down, take a deep breath, and find the phone number of Jason Schmidt's agent. First, Zito isn't that good, despite Boras' book and second if you're going to start dealing with snakes you might as well put that money in a nice reptile farm in Florida. If the rattlers die you still have the land, whereas if Zito's arm dies you've got nothing.
The Barry Zito prospectus still look good to you? Read the fine print. The Oakland A's once had three of the best young pitchers in baseball; Zito, Hudson, and Mulder. Two (Hudson and Mulder) were traded. Hudson for Juan Cruz and a bag of magic beans, Mulder for Danny Haren (a 14 game winner at a $550,000 salary). And right now the A's are looking pretty smart.
When Oakland traded Hudson he was 28 and just coming off a year where he gave up more hits than innings pitched for the first time. He also had come under 200 innings for the first time in a full season. In Atlanta he hasn't gotten his hits under innings pitched (despite the switch to the NL) and a disturbing numbers of balls hit off him are leaving the playing field. Strike one.
Mulder was 27 when he went over to St. Louis and was coming off his first 4+ ERA. He already had pitched 200+ innings 3 times and was showing early signs of arm wear. The Cards got one 16 game win year out of him, but even then he was getting hit and had a low strikeout to walk ratio (as had Hudson). This past season Mulder pitched in all of 17 games, had a 7+ ERA, and developed arm problems. Strike two.
But Zito will be different. Everyone says he will. ESPN says he will. Scott Boras is calling him the next big thing in pitching, and we all know Scott Boras wouldn't overhype a client. Right?
Don't get me wrong. Zito is good. But do you want to pay for current production, or compensate him for what he did with Oakland? Which is pitch 200+ innings 7 years in a row. If you give him a 7 year contract you're essentially saying he will be able to piece together 14 seasons with over 200 innings. Haven't seen one of those type pitchers in about 20 years.
We're talking about a pitcher whose walks are up to nearly 100 (99 to be exact) and his strikeouts (151) are headed down. Then there are the 25 or so homeruns he's given up the past three seasons with half his games in a pitchers ballpark. ERA? That would be 4.48, 3.86, and 3.83 over the past 3 seasons. I've seen the film of Koufax. This isn't Koufax. What Zito is would be a very good left hander with high mileage beginning to show on the odometer. $14 million a year for 7 years? Pass.
Which brings us to Jason Schmidt. Schmidt is 33 and has been blowing away National League hitters for the past five seasons in San Francisco. He has pitched past his breakdown point with relatively minor arm problems and can probably provide 3 quality 15 win seasons. His strikeout to walk ratio has gone down from about 4.5-1 four years ago to 2.25 to 1 last season. Zito's has never been even that high, and was down to 1.5-1 last season.
If you're on the coast (where Schmidt wants to be) you can probably sign him to a 3 year deal for $40 million or so. If you're the New York Yankees the price may go up to around $55 milion just to make it worth his while to come east. Compared to Zito it's still a bargain.
So throw out Boras' books. Go to MLB.com and watch some of those old World Series videos of Koufax so you'll know what the real thing looks like. Then calm down, get the good scotch out of the cabinet, and go see what's on TV. Boras will call back and when he does hang up on him and call Schmidt's agent. You'll be glad you did.
