Football isn't baseball. Lose a 40 HR 125 RBI .300 hitter from your lineup and you will lose ball games you would have won.
Not in football.
Tom Brady is the Patriots' cleanup hitter. An ARod who hits better in the clutch. But New England isn't going to fold the way New York would without their best hitter.
Football is a game of systems, and Bill Belichick has created arguably the greatest offensive system in the history of the NFL. High octane passing, low risk, ball possession football. Teams have to score on one of their first two possessions against New England or the game is over, because it is close to a sure thing New England will convert early possessions into touchdowns.
Tom Brady is great and not just because of the system. The question is how big a gap is there between great and good.
We are about to find out.
Cassel hasn't started a game since high school, having backed up Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart at USC. But he has put up respectable numbers in the NFL (35-57-405-3 TD-2 INT), and didn't let the game get away from him against Kansas City in relief of the injured Brady. In fact, he posted a 116 quarterback rating and led a 98 yard touchdown drive.
The bottom line on Cassel won't be so much about numbers, which the system ensures he will put up. The question is what kind of production he'll have in the red zone and how few mistakes he makes outside it.
As Tony Romo is proving in Dallas, the vertical game between the 20's may be the easiest part for a young quarterback. The Patriot offensive line will give Cassel time, and his receivers opportunity. The tell will be whether you see New England walking off the field with touchdowns or field goals in the red zone. With Brady six points was almost a given, with Cassel less so.
Should the Patriots try to open market for a solution beyond the Jets game? The idea is reasonable, the answers may not be.
Duante Culpepper has been a Pro Bowl player, but he's also been a disappointment. There is a reason nobody has signed him, and it's not because (as he believes) he stands up for himself. It's because he is a creator on offense (good and bad) and not a bus driver. A controlling coach who values execution will likely be happier with Cassel than Culpepper. A Belichick-Culpepper wedding is probably not in the offing.
The truth is there isn't much out on the waiver wires or in trades. A quarterback familiar with the New England offense is better than who isn't. Ironically, the best answer would have been to get Brett Favre out of retirement, except he's already returned to the Jets.
What does the future hold? I'd say 35 TD and 17 interceptions, 13 wins and a trip back to the AFC championship game. Beyond that?
It will only cost New England $440,000 to find out.
In ancient times you showed an open palm to prove you were not carrying a weapon. With that assurance, you could greet anyone you met as a friend. For a few thousand years it's been a workable system.
Until now.
Nobody spends any time thinking about how the Jets-Patriots game will turn out tomorrow in frozen Foxboro. Everyone knows the Jets are going to lose by at least three touchdowns. The big story, the one that will keep viewers glued to their sets, is what happens after the game mercifully ends.
Will they or won't they?
The last interaction between two humans watched this closely was when Michael Jackson and Lisa Marie Presley appeared for the first time together as husband and wife. Nobody expects to see full body contact, unless there are punches thrown.
Which would be great. Admit it. This is what we want to see. We've spent most of our adult lives watching two men cross a crowded field with a state trooper or two in tow, just to exchange a one sentence greeting and a handshake.
We want blood.
Belichick has had a great career. He's won Super Bowls, set records, reached the top of his profession. What more, beyond pulling a knife on Mangini, is there to do? If his career is a great big chocolate sundae, then going all Brutus on his former associate would be the cherry on top. What's a few years in prison balanced against one glorious moment of revenge.
"Accuse me of cheating you ungrateful wretch!", Belichick screams as he closes in. The next day the photo would be on the front page of every paper, a Ruby-Oswald shot for the new millenium. Frozen in time we see Belichick lunging forward, the Massachusetts state trooper's eyes as big as saucers.
Too violent?
OK, how about a hockey fight? Mangini pulls that stupid hoodie thing over Belichick's head in the first minute and pummels him with a series of haymaker rights as the local constabulary holds back onlookers. Patriot and Jet players stand by shouting encouragement. Belichick staggers back, regains his footing and nails Mangini with a short jab that staggers the youngster. The crowd goes wild.
Maybe a full out rumble. Sharks (or Patriots) and Jets. Choreographed properly it could be a thing of beauty, a ballet of 300 pound linemen and darting defensive backs. Referee Krupke stands watching to one side, as Giesele Blundchin in the role of Maria, watches the Jets try vainly to take out Tom "Bernardo" Brady.
Being a Southerner, though, I have an abiding fondness for the Code Duelo. I think Mangini should send a formal challenge to Belichick and they can meet with their seconds at the end of regulation time to settle things properly, like gentlemen. Think of it like sudden death overtime. The captains meet, the referees explain the rules, and then the violence commences.
Finally, there is the "Dirty Little Coward Who Shot Mr. Howard" scenario. The demise of Jesse James plays out after Belichick begrudgingly shakes Mangini's hand. As he heads back to the Patriots dresssing room, Mangini cries out "Forgive Me!" and shoots Belichick in the back. Although no formal charges would be filed, Mangini would move from team to team afterwards, shunned even by the most ardent Patriot haters.
Will any of this happen? Probably not.
Will they shake hands? Who cares? It's a tradition, nothing more. If one of the two coaches declines a handshake it just reveals a small, petty side of their personalities.
NFL coaching legends Jimmy Johnson, John Madden, Bill Cowher, and Dennis Green described how they would game plan for the New England Patriots in a USA Today article. (Alright, Green isn't a legend, but then again the other three wouldn't be either if they had coached the Vikings and Cardinals).
From all that coaching genius we got the following. Blitz. Then blitz. Then blitz some more. Run so Brady can't get on the field. Make big plays on special teams.
Piffle.
I don't know what piffle is, but it sounds clever when the roaming travel gnome in the commercials says it. And it's always a good rule to pattern your public statements after inanimate objects of lawn art whenever possible.
Let me just say this about that. I know how to defeat the New England Patriots and it involves none of the coaches suggestions.
Start with Tom Brady. The way to stop Brady is to lure him off the field with a lingerie model. If that doesn't work try an actress. And if that doesn't work, a process server with a paternity suit will do.
Bill Belichick. Basically the same strategy as with Brady. Just adjust by telling Belichick that the husband of a lingerie model, actress, or general contractor is looking for him.
Randy Moss. Steal his helmet. Put an Oakland Raiders helmet in his locker. Suddenly he won't be quite so dangerous. Suddenly he will look very stoppable. Passes will slip through his hands, routes won't be a sharp, a step will be lost. Sampson had his hair, Moss has the Patriots helmet.
Inform the player's families their sons have become part of dangerous cult. Stage an intervention to get Rodney Harrison out of this bizarre group. Look at this logo:
If this is a Patriot, then Paul Revere was on LSD. Obviously dark forces are at work here. The single star, the weird hair style, the pointy chin. At best, it's an artist rendition of the guy who didn't get the gig playing bass for Kiss.
Use technology (the Navy's Sea Sparrow Missle) to offset the Patriots advantages:
No, we're not going to shoot down Wes Welker. (The early tests failed when, like the Dallas secondary, we were unable to acquire the target in time to get a hit). Instead, we will employ the Sea Sparrow from a cruiser in Boston Harbor against:
The spy satellite the Patriots switched to when the NFL stopped them from using sideline cameras to steal other team's signals.
We will also go after the Patriots ultimate weapon, replacing these zebras:
With these zebras:
Just remember. History is full of supposedly unstoppable forces that were taken down. Stalin, ####, The Backstreet Boys, and someday maybe even Dr. Phil. It can be done.
Nothing else is working. Teams playing the receivers tight, teams playing the receivers loose, teams wandering aimlessly around the field doing the chicken dance. It's all been tried and none of it is working.
It is time to face reality.
The Patriots could finish 16-0, run the tables in the playoffs, take control of the government and come for our women. Not that they would like us saying they are "our" women, but you know what I mean. Do you really want to live in a society where Tom Brady shows up at your door and says "I'll take the tall blond one over there". I know your wives and girlfriends might not object to that, but where does that leave us?
There is precedent. In 2006 Coach Bill Bilichick was sued by the husband of a New Jersey woman for taking his wife's affections. He is now reported to be dating a woman with three children whose marriage evaporated into thin air at his approach. Plus, and this is only conjecture on my part, the guy looks like a vampire.
Some might say I'm over reacting to the threat. I say they are wrong. In the 90's we learned from movies that "greed is good". This is 2007. Panic is the new greed.
So what do we do?
Back in the sixties the counterculture used to have bumper stickers that said "imagine world peace". Didn't happen, but at least they were trying something. And it doesn't mean it couldn't work in this case. Imagine...
Imagine the Patriots completely coming unglued after a humbling loss to the Colts and finishing 8-8.
Picture all the defensive coordinators in the NFL watching the game, hitting their foreheads with their palm and exclaiming "It's so simple, now we can shut them down."
Visualize Tom Brady being dumped by Gisele Bundchen. During a game using the sideline phone.
Imagine Brady curling into the fetal position and refusing to go into the game, replaced by Matt Cassell.
Form an image in your mind of a crazed ex husband charging across the field and beating Bilichick senseless with a giant foam finger, before feeding what was left to a group of the commander in cheat's ex-girlfriend's and their lawyers.
Together let's chant, hold hands, and picture a world where Randy Moss is 10 yards behind the nearest corner back and drops the ball. Over and over and over again.
In your mind's eye can't you see Mike Vrabel coming in with the short yardage team, tripping over Brady's foot in the exchange and pulling every muscle and ligament in his body simultaneously.
We can get together on this people. We can stop the Patriots. It's like John Lennon told us....
Imagine the Patriots losing
It's easy if you try
No teams below them
Above us the Jets fly high
Imagine all the Patriot haters
Living for Sunday...
Imagine there's no Belichick It isn't hard to do
Nothing to film or lie for
And no Tom Brady too
Imagine the Bills in the playoffs New England giving up 9 TD's...
You may say I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one
I hope someday you'll join us
And the Patriots will be done
Imagine no Randy Moss
I wonder if you can
No need for greed or plunder
Or spy equipment in vans Imagine all the Miami Dolphins Healthy at one time...
You may say I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one
I hope someday you'll join us
And the Colts win 53 to none.
I know, wronger isn't a word. But there is wrong and then there is, well, wronger. And my blog on the Patriots and Cowboys was wronger than most.
Let's look at that blog again on replay...
"New England will probably go up top early and often against the
inconsistent Dallas secondary. The vaunted Wade Phillips 3-4 hasn't
generated a consistent pass rush all year and they won't start Sunday."
OK, that part wasn't far off. Dallas got just three sacks, and Brady probably feels more pressure in his personal life than he did against Dallas.
"..he (Brady) will have time to put up 250
yards, at least two touchdowns, and no more than one interception. And
the golden QB will go deep more often than you'd expect, mainly because
for some odd reason (over rated receivers?) the Patriots aren't that
good on third down."
No, and no. 250 yards? More like some number roughly equal to the distance the team charter will fly tonight going back to Boston. Not that good on 3rd down? What was I thinking. The Patriots were 10-15 on 3rd down conversions. The story of the game was this. The Cowboy defense couldn't get the New England offense off the field."
"(Dallas will throw) Thirty-six passes minimum, as many as fifty if they trail early.
Wrong again. Dallas only got 29 passes, because (all together now), Dallas could not get New England's offense off the field.
"If the Cowboys get seventy-five yards running that could be enough to win...One reason it could be a low total is that Julius Jones is not effective running anything other than a delay.
Dallas got 98 yards, and Jones looked good getting 51. The problem is Dallas only got 14 runs, playing behind most of the game.
"Who is the key player in the game? The papers say the quarterbacks.
Some say Terrell Owens and Randy Moss. I say Mat McBriar, the Cowboy
punter. He is the best in the league since Ray Guy and gives Dallas a
field position edge which will force New England to gain more yards and
use more time to score. Count the yards behind where each drive starts.
The team that loses the field position battle (likely New England) will
lose."
Right on the field position part, wrong on McBriar. He averaged 54 yards a punt, but Dallas never did pin New England deep. The few occasions they did, New England calmly marched down field. Oh yeah, the key player? Wes Welker, the third receiver for New England who kept drives alive repeatedly in the first half.
"..two interceptions for Romo and three touchdown passes."
Just two touchdowns and one late interception after the game was over. I was correct in saying that Romo would not be bothered by the distraction of his dad's health issues or the interceptions he threw against Buffalo. Romo looked relatively calm and collected, except on the first three drives which all ended on three and out. On those he looked, like the rest of the offense, indecisve.
"If the game turns into "Running Backs Gone Wild" you can put out the fire and call in the dogs. Dallas will be toast."
I guess there is more than one way to make toast. Did Dallas contain the Patriots running game, or did New England just lose interest because the pass was so effective?
"Odds are the first team to land a hard blow, whether it's a turnover or a sustained drive, will win."
Not so much a hard blow, but a repeated series of hammer hits. The first three Dallas possessions (all three and out) put New England in the position of dictating the action the rest of the afternoon.
"Tony Romo seems blissfully ignorant of conventional wisdom and the game
is being played in Dallas. Let's give this one to Dallas, 30-28."
Hand me some Texas Pete. This crow is awfully dry.
I used to think sports journalists knew something. They sounded like they did. Very confident lot. Use words like establish. "Well, Mike, the Patriots will establish the running game early and try and neutralize the Cowboy pass rush. If Dallas doesn't put some pressure on Tom Brady it could be a long afternoon for Dallas."
What are they saying? And is it anything someone with an intuitive grasp of the obvious didn't already know? Safe talk nobody will remember after the game.
When was the last time you heard an announcer say, "New England will probably go up top early and often against the inconsistent Dallas secondary. The vaunted Wade Phillips 3-4 hasn't generated a consistent pass rush all year and they won't start Sunday." You won't, but it's true.
The Cowboy defense has just 12 sacks in five games, and Brady has only been sacked three times. Do the math. Unless Dallas goes blitz happy (a risky proposition against the Patriots) he will have time to put up 250 yards, at least two touchdowns, and no more than one interception. And the golden QB will go deep more often than you'd expect, mainly because for some odd reason (over rated receivers?) the Patriots aren't that good on third down.
There may be some talk about Dallas needing to keep the New England offense off the field. That would be nice, but if you're looking for the Cowboys to do it by running 50% of the time it's not going to happen. Thirty-six passes minimum, as many as fifty if they trail early.
The pattern all season has been for Dallas is to pass first, then run. If the Cowboys get seventy-five yards running that could be enough to win. So could fifty. But if it ends up being 35 yards (and it might), that's another story. One reason it could be a low total is that Julius Jones is not effective running anything other than a delay. (Not that the announcers will say that).
The Patriots are an organization headed by a coach with questionable ethics. Dallas is a team living large off an inspired quarterback who can sustain drives by moving in the pocket. They have no effective backup. Will the Patriot front seven try to injure Romo? Only if the game ends up being played on a day of the week ending in "y". Nobody will say that on the air, even if a Patriot lineman runs onto the field with with a tire iron in one hand and kneecaps Romo.
Who is the key player in the game? The papers say the quarterbacks. Some say Terrell Owens and Randy Moss. I say Mat McBriar, the Cowboy punter. He is the best in the league since Ray Guy and gives Dallas a field position edge which will force New England to gain more yards and use more time to score. Count the yards behind where each drive starts. The team that loses the field position battle (likely New England) will lose.
You are going to hear about Romo's interceptions against Buffalo, and about his dad's prostate surgery. Neither are going to have anything to do with the outcome. Consider this. They have a name for NFL quarterbacks who haven't figured out how to focus on the game they are in. It's road kill. Once the game starts quarterbacks are who they are, for better and worse. That means two interceptions for Romo and three touchdown passes.
New England has a good running game. Morris and Maroney both average nearly five yards a carry. That, and not Brady, represents the nightmare scenario for Dallas. If the game turns into "Running Backs Gone Wild" you can put out the fire and call in the dogs. Dallas will be toast.
All that said, games like this are heavy weight matches. They start slow (the coaches hope) as the teams seek an advantage. Odds are the first team to land a hard blow, whether it's a turnover or a sustained drive, will win.
Common sense tells you New England wins this one 28-23. But Tony Romo seems blissfully ignorant of conventional wisdom and the game is being played in Dallas. Let's give this one to Dallas, 30-28.
New Orleans Saints Reggie Bush: "Yeah, yeah, tell coach I'll be right there." (on cell) "Man, why can't we park the Hummer in front of the Subway in the ad? It's called cross promotion. You guys are supposed to be pros. Focus, man, focus."
Tampa Bay Bucaneers Coach Jon Gruden: "Boys, it's like I've always said, chicks dig a man with a visor."
New England Patriots Coach Bill Belichick: "You've got to hold it steady or the image will blur."
New England Patriots Cheerleader (beginning to cry): "But I have to shake them, they're pom poms."
Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck: "Come on guys, yeah we're down 10. To ARIZONA. Just don't turn over the ball and we'll be fine."
Dallas WR Terrell Owens "Just get me the ball. I've got this bit where I wind a handle on a camera in the end zone. It's going to be great."
Dallas QB Tony Romo: "But won't they call a penalty on that?"
Dallas WR Terrell Owens "You're not listening. I'm in the end zone. I'm cranking a camera. What is it you don't understand. Three years watching and holding that clip board and you still don't know what this game is about, do you?"
Giants Coach Tom Coughlin: "Ah, but the strawberries! That's, that's where I had them. Barber laughed
at me and made jokes, but I proved beyond the shadow of a doubt, and with,
with geometric logic, that, that a duplicate key to the locker room icebox
did exist."
Atlanta Falcons QB Joey Harrington: "Oh yeah, well maybe you should have thought about that before your pal ended up headed for prison. And just for the record, I get timed with a stop watch like everyone else. I have never, never been timed with a sun dial."
Indianapolis QB Payton Manning: "Marvin, does it ever seem to you that the sun is shining on us and the crowds aren't even there. And it's so quiet that all you hear is the wind moving over the laces of the football as it perfectly spirals into your hands. It's like it's all in slow motion and no matter what they do you just look over at Coach Dungy and have this feeling of contentment like nothing bad is ever going to happen."
New York Giants QB Eli Manning: "And I kept telling him, I don't even eat strawberries. And he's got this glazed look in his eyes. Then he leaves and I finally get to sleep and have this dream where Brett Favre is pointing at me and laughing. And my dad is telling Favre that he has a son who plays QB named Payton. But he doesn't mention me. What do you think that means?"
Oakland Coach Monte Kiffin: "It's just lightining. There is not a thing to worry about. Now everybody hit the field. (team files out) JaMarcus. Over here. Look, you'd better stay in here until after the game."
Steelers RB Willie Parker: "So I tell him. Look, I'll be running for 120 yards a game in the pros long after they've forgotten the name John Bunting."
Bengals Coach Marvin Lewis: "Now let's get out there and play some defense."
I hadn't seen such a Patriot since 73' I'm thinking his name was #### Nixon And if a thief is what you desire to be I guess you should be a big one.
And Boris and Natasha were filming the game But swore it didn’t affect the outcome While Mangini’s in the papers naming the names And hoping you forget he was once one.
I hadn’t seen such a scandal since 1919 I remember the name was Joe Jackson And even though your record is relatively clean You will still have to pay a small ransom
And Vick is in Atlanta
packing cigarettes For new friends of prison acquaintance And Barry Bonds lives without regrets After years of chemical maintenance.
I haven’t seen such Kraft since 94’ The name then was Tanya Harding But if you think losing is really a bore Cheating is something worth trying.
And Rocky’s on the sidelines with a mini cam He says now don't be so su####ious Phony moral rectitude is part of the plan And the Super Bowl feasts are delicious.
I haven’t seen such a player since Broadway Joe And to think he didn’t know what was coming And Brady’s in the pocket and out on the town With a baby and model named Bundchen
So watch Bill pull a rabbit right out of his hat And smile as they’re taking his draft choice Cause he still has Frisco’s and it is a fact That of the two that’s the good one.
I haven’t seen such money since Al Capone Was knocking off all his rivals And in the NFL cheating is a skill you hone It’s really just simple survival
And the Moose and the Squirrel and Roger Goodale Are riding off into the sunset Cause next to the real scandals this one is pale And the worst are the ones that will come yet.
Come on, people. We're letting Payton Manning off much too easy. One Saturday Night Live does not make this guy Chris Rock. Alot of people have invested alot of time hating him. Are we just going to let all that negativity, all those nasty blog entries go to waste? Because of ONE good night.
Get your heads out of your DVD's, line back up at that keyboard, and let's pound this guy. What's next? Love letters to Kobe Bryant? Are you going to watch Barry Bonds play with a syringe sticking out his back pocket and say, "Well, we don't know for sure, we're can't really tell if it's a syringe, Babe Ruth was on heroin most of his career." Yada, yada, yada. We're bloggers here, so let's try to act like it. Give me a break.
First off, Manning is overrated. Sure, he's had a few good commercials and the SNL gig was OK, but you have to consider his supporting cast.
When you see Manning on TV he's working in a system that was designed for him. Put those kids in the lineup and they'd make Aaron Brooks into the next Richard Pryor. Put Manning in a lineup with the kids from "Phil From the Future" and he wouldn't connect on 35% of his jokes. Plus, we haven't seen Manning work with animals, or animated characters, or super models. Oh yeah, super models.
Tom Brady has worked with super models. He dates one, Giesel Bunchen.
Brady used to date actress Bridget Moynahan, who is expecting his
child. Manning married his college sweetheart. Brady takes risks.
Manning goes with the safe call.
Then there were the passes he threw to the kids. Did you see anything over 10 yards? Did you see him air it out? Sure, he hit 75% of those kids, but in that spread offense you've got to nail at least one of the little suckers every down. Johnny Unitas would have shot a bullet to one of those kids on a deep corner and left them in a sling. Manning didn't even bruise their tiny little hands.
You probably laughed at Manning's joke about why Brady is like a three ring circus compared to Manning (two more rings). If you look at the film you'll see that he saw pressure from the SNL band, came up to the mike, and checked down to a safer joke than the one Tony Dungy had sent in.
From the cheap seats it looked to me like Manning phoned in the locker room sketch. Granted, he sustained the routine for over 4 minutes, but when it came time to punch it in Mr. Big Time Commercial Guy couldn't come up with the key punchline.
Here's the bottom line. Archie Manning never won an Emmy. Payton Manning has never won an Emmy. Eli Manning is probably never going to win an Emmy. But Tom Brady will probably sleep with someone who does. And that (along with two more rings) is why Payton Manning can't carry Tom Brady's cue cards.
Let's cut to the chase. The difference between drunken sailors and the wealthy alumni bankrolling the semi-pro football and basketball teams masquerading as college athletic programs is that the sailor will sleep it off and wake up sober. And maybe even learn from the experience.
As Groucho Marx once said, you hunt elephants in Alabama because the "Tuscaloosa". So are the wallets. Eight years of Nick Saban will cost the brahmans down there $32 million. Today all is joy in Mudville with throngs meeting Saban at the airport, and message board posters signing the praises of A.D. Mal Moore, the same fossil whose head they wanted on the pointed end of a stick the week before.
But what about 2010? Will this date see Alabama preparing for a national title? Will they be coming off a major bowl win? SEC championship? Will the Tide roll? Probably not.
You must remember this. Money changes everything and nothing. What Alabama has bought in Saban is a brand name, second looks from prospective recruits and at the margins, better coaching. A time machine was not included in the deal.
The heart of Alabama's problem is it isn't 1979 anymore. Hasn't been for awhile. In the years since that last championship season and Bear Bryant's death in 1983 the landscape of college football has changed. In 79' a handful of schools had elite coaches and facilities, today the number of high stakes players has multiplied. In 1979 it was an honor to play at Alabama. Today it's an option.
Alabama football means something. In Alabama. To a recruit deciding between USC, Texas, and Bama it means much less. They don't know the school's history and don't care. To them it's a dice roll that takes them away from big city lights and ESPN highlight film. The line that will form to play for the Crimson Tide will lengthen under Saban, but not by much until there is success. And success won't come until the players do.
Which brings us to back to Nick "I'm not going to Alabama" Saban. Yes, he won the one big at LSU in 2003. But the season before and the season after, he won just one game each year against ranked teams. Looking for a turnaround? It took Saban five years to get beyond 7 wins at Michigan State. Looking for a coach whose word means something? Then reread Saban's quote and try not to laugh (or cry).
Then again, maybe when Saban said he wasn't going to be Alabama's coach it wasn't because he was lying. His common sense may have persuaded him not to fall in with the folks who were so quick to throw Mike Shula under the team bus. But greed is the trump card that Alabama played and now Saban will step back into the lion's den that is the SEC. Unlike his LSU days, he won't step into a good nucleus of young players left behind by his predecessor. This time it's Saban's high stakes game to win or lose.
Don Shula had it pegged. Asked by a TV reporter about his son's firing as head coach, he said that it was time to evaluate the evaluators. Three years will be time enough to do that. My bet is that 2010 in Tuscaloosa will find the natives restless over an 8-5 team, minor bowl games, and a $4 million head coach who followed his checkbook somewhere his head told him not to go.
Like the Colts' Johnny Unitas wearing the lightning bolt helmet of the San Diego Chargers, the thought of Brett Favre playing somewhere other than Green Bay seems almost unthinkable. Except for one thing. Favre himself may be thinking it, telling the Associated Press he doesn't know if he will retire and also doesn't know if the Packers want him back. "..up to this point we're 3-12. Wouldn't you think they're sitting there going 'OK, if we're running a risk of this happening next year we might as well save the money and put it somewhere else in the future'?"
The Packers, mindful of Favre's place in Green Bay's storied history, immediately indicated that they want him back next year. So, what's going on? As Favre put it, the risk of another season like this one in Green Bay is real. For a competitor like Favre, that has to hold little appeal. But, saying that he wants to play somewhere other than Green Bay would be very difficult for someone with strong ties to the area and affection for Packer fans. So this could be the first signal of an exit strategy that allows Favre to play two or three more seasons for a playoff contender.
If Favre retires it won't be because he can't play or has lost his competitve fire. At 36 he was 5th in the NFL in passing yardage working with a depleted receiving corp and offensive line. And nobody who saw his flashes of emotion in a meaningless late season game against the Bears could believe he still doesn't have a passion for the game.
If Favre doesn't retire the question becomes where he will play. It would likely be for a team that has playoff possibilites, is closer to his home in Mississippi, and doesn't now have a quarterback capable of taking the team deep into the playoffs. That points squarely in the direction of the up and coming Miami Dolphins or the Tampa Bay Bucaneers. Nick Saban has the Dolphins moving in the right direction and is a proven winner. In Tampa Bay, Favre would play for a team with a bedrock solid defense and wouldn't have to carry the load by himself.
There are other possibilities. The Washington Redskins have more cap flexibility than it appears on the surface. If Favre was willing to accept playing for a lesser team to get closer to home, the New Orleans Saints could certainly use some excitement around their uncertain future.
I'm guessing that Favre will play next year but not with Green Bay. If the sensitive issue of his movement to another team can't be worked out gracefully it's likely this was Favre's last season as a Packer. So, brace yourself Packer fans. Number 4 may be wearing a Dolphin on his helmet next year instead of of the Gold and Green "GB".
This year's playoff teams are alot like the big Kentucky Derby fields at Churchill Downs. There are a few picks that will get alot of attention, some solid entrees worth looking at, a couple of longshots, and alot of horses with no business in the race. After careful review of the NFL team stats, here's how I handicap the field of 14 (allowing for all teams still in contention for a playoff spot):
CLASS OF THE FIELD
Denver Broncos Conventional wisdom says the Colts, but in an environment that magnifies mistakes the Broncos don't make them. Key stat lines- +18 giveaway/takeaway margin, only 28 sacks and interceptions combined (tied with Indianapolis), and 17 pass plays of 40 or more yards.
Seatlle Seahawks Other than a lack of playoff experience it's hard to find a flaw in the Seahawks. Key stat line-28 rushing touchdowns. Cause for concern-only 17 field goals and a 70.8% average.
Indianapolis Colts Not a horse to bet on, despite being the early favorite. Hasn't been stretched out by competition. Key stat line-surprisingly only 13 plays from scrimmage longer than 20 yards. Gives up 300 yards per game on defense and a 66.8% pass completion percentage.
SOLID STARTERS
Pittsburgh Steelers Why not? Solid defense and field goal kicking can go far in the playoffs. I worry that they are too predictable on offense. Key stat lines-Runs the ball 58.8% of the time. Eighty-four yards per game rushing defense.
Cincinnati Bengals A ball hawking defense and potentially explosive offense. Gives up more yards and pass completions than I'd like to see, but the offensive line gives Palmer all kinds of time. Key stat line-31 interceptions. Reason to worry-61.4% pass completion percentage given up on defense. Can they get a Payton Manning off the field?
Carolina Panthers A one good receiver team in a league that demands two. I hesitate to place them this high, but their defense is this good and Jake Delhomme makes alot from a little. Key stat lines-Only 677 yards in penalties on offense, 23 passing TD's, and 12 receptions for 40 yards or more. Why worry? Only 3.2 yards a rush.
Overrated
New England Patriots Johnny Damon left town and so has the Pats mystique. Lots of weaknesses showing up all at once. Key stat- Minus 5 giveaway/takeaway. No team wins the Super Bowl with a negative in this category. More bad news-231.5 yards per game passing by their opponents. The Pats pass 57% of the time, which is a bad stat in the playoffs where most teams got there by putting strong pressure on the QB.
New York Giants Eli Manning will be a fine playoff quarterback, but not yet. Key stat-327.7 yards per game given up by the defense. The Giants won't get Manning on the field and with 17 interceptions a 4 interception day against a tough defense isn't out of the question.
Save Some Money For
Jacksonville Jaquars My insane long shot. Rock solid defense gets opponents off the field. Key stat line-65.6 average kickoff distance. It's an arcane stat, but when the playoffs come around field position is king. At no extra charge-Did you know the Jags only give up 31.9% of 3rd down conversions?
Dallas Cowboys Win one for the Tuna has a nice ring to it. A team with line play this bad shouldn't last past the first round (if they make the playoffs). But remember this key stat-The Cowboys ran 126 more plays from scrimmage than their opponents. A team with an uncanny knack for snatching victory from the jaws of defeat.
Sucker Bets
Kansas City Chiefs An offense that is hitting on all cylinders and a defense that couldn't drive a moped. The only stat you need to know-339.2 yards per game yielded on defense.
Washington Redskins With much respect due to Joe Gibbs, this isn't the Redskins year. Key stat lines- Gave up over 20 yards on 18 plays from scrimmage. Minus 4 giveaway/takeaway. Brunell will not give games away, but he also isn't who you want to see on the field down by more than a touchdown in the 3rd quarter.
Tampa Bay Bucaneers What do they do well? Not much. What do they do badly? Not much. Key stat line-Only 275.9 yards per game by opponents.
Chicago Bears An old fashioned Bears defense, and unfortunately an offense that recalls the glory days of Jack Concannon. Key stats-Opponents have run 38 more plays from scrimmage, 127 yards passing, 28 giveaways.
Summary-Look for the Broncos to take the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. Forget about the Colts, look out for the Jags, and keep an eye on the Steelers and Bengals. The rest are pretenders.
