Start with this. In baseball the season can be over on June 1. April 1 if you live in Pittsburgh.

June 1 is a good time to assess where teams are at and what it would take to get into the playoffs. For example, while nobody is wandering around the Mets clubhouse singing "To Dream The Impossible Dream", they aren't humming "We Are The Champions" either.

So here they are. The dead cert locks, the contenders and the pretenders:

NL EAST

Last year it took 89 wins to grab the East. This year, let's raise the bar by 2. The Phillies would have to play .558 ball, or a little less than what they are doing now. Is that reasonable? You're #2 in baseball in runs scored, in the top half for ERA, Chase Utley is hitting like Hornsby, and Brad Lidge is the wildest thing to hit town since, well, the Wild Thing. Count Philadelphia in.

Florida is intriguing until you look closer. Here is the tell. Only 15 save opportunities, five blown, and 216 walks in 491 winnings. Walks are like partying with Keith Richards. It won't kill you the first night out, but sooner or later your rotation starts to look like Gram Parsons. Hendrickson, Olson, and Miller are a good law firm but a lousy big 3. Hanley Ramirez is a great, the rest merely good. The Fish get 91 at their current win rate, 86 once reality sets in.

What of the Mets? To get to the wild card (insert manager's name here) team would have to win 56% of their remaining games. Possible, maybe even probable, but with a slugging average of .401? The fate of the Mets lies in the hands of Omar Minaya, not Willie Randolph. Can he acquire a big bat? When the answer to your biggest question may be Barry Bonds you know the odds are not with you.

Don't forget the Braves. Fourth in ERA and 9th in runs, Atlanta just has to kick it up a notch. How come nobody questions Cox the way the New York media does Randolph? He has the players to get it done, but it isn't happening. The offense is too good not to contend, maybe for the division title. It would take a .590 run the rest of the way, but IF Smoltz is healthy, and IF Chipper Jones stops hitting .400 and starts slugging, and IF Gonzalez provides reliable relief, and IF they get enough offense from Blanco while Diaz is out, well you get the idea. A lot of if's, but a lot of possibilities.

NL CENTRAL

Da Cubs. First in runs, 6th in ERA. All Lou Pinella has to do is what Dusty Baker never could, manage the pitching and entertain the locals. Even if Kerry Woods spontaneously combusts on the mound, the bullpen is deep enough that it won't be a problem. I don't think Jim Edmonds is the answer, but holding hands and singing "All we are saying, is give Pie a chance" wasn't working either. Expect a few volcanic eruptions from Pinella and wins. Many, many wins.

St. Louis. The power of two. LaRussa and Pujols. First off, LaRussa may be the best manager in baseball, pulling the Cards back together after a tough 2007. Pujols has picked the team up and carried it on his back. The downside is they are in the Cubs division and some of the starters (read, Ryan Ludwick) are playing above their ability. They'll come back to the pack, but stay in the hunt for the wild card as long as Pujols keeps going.

A night watching the Astros pitching is like a night spent with a fire bug in an oil refinery. Sure, you can get a crowd out to see the results, but the next morning nothing but smoke and charred wreckage. If the Cubs win 95 (and they could), Houston has to make like Big Brown the rest of the way and turn in a .625. Not going to happen. But go watch Berkman and say hi to Miguel Tejeda, a nice man and really good baseball player.

What about the Brewers and Reds? The Brewers are interesting because they have a player named Jason who wears a mask and, that's about it. You come away from a Brewers game wondering, was that bratwurst bad or was it just from watching the relievers? The Reds have Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, and Edison Volquez, which will make the rest of the season interesting and next season very interesting. Now, if Bruce had come up in April.....

NL WEST

The Diamondbacks magic number is yesterday. The rest of the division is a disaster area. The D-Backs are deep, the pitching awe inspiring (who knows, this could be the season Randy Johnson gets his second bird), but something is missing. Like a cleanup hitter. Getting Chad Tracy back helps. Playing against the NL West will hurt in the long run. Can they stay interested while running away?  Maybe the most playoff ready team right now in baseball.

Cubs Win! Cubs Win!

Mark it down. This is the year of the Cub. Jinxes are for sports writers. The Cubs are a complete team with the pitching needed to win it all. Arizona is strong. The Cubs are stronger and will beat the some team with Sox (Red or White) in the name in the World Series.  Mark it down.