I used to think sports journalists knew something. They sounded like they did. Very confident lot. Use words like establish. "Well, Mike, the Patriots will establish the running game early and try and neutralize the Cowboy pass rush. If Dallas doesn't put some pressure on Tom Brady it could be a long afternoon for Dallas."

What are they saying? And is it anything someone with an intuitive grasp of the obvious didn't already know? Safe talk nobody will remember after the game.

When was the last time you heard an announcer say, "New England will probably go up top early and often against the inconsistent Dallas secondary. The vaunted Wade Phillips 3-4 hasn't generated a consistent pass rush all year and they won't start Sunday." You won't, but it's true.

The Cowboy defense has just 12 sacks in five games, and Brady has only been sacked three times. Do the math. Unless Dallas goes blitz happy (a risky proposition against the Patriots) he will have time to put up 250 yards, at least two touchdowns, and no more than one interception. And the golden QB will go deep more often than you'd expect, mainly because for some odd reason (over rated receivers?) the Patriots aren't that good on third down.

There may be some talk about Dallas needing to keep the New England offense off the field. That would be nice, but if you're looking for the Cowboys to do it by running 50% of the time it's not going to happen. Thirty-six passes minimum, as many as fifty if they trail early.

The pattern all season has been for Dallas is to pass first, then run. If the Cowboys get seventy-five yards running that could be enough to win. So could fifty. But if it ends up being 35 yards (and it might), that's another story. One reason it could be a low total is that Julius Jones is not effective running anything other than a delay. (Not that the announcers will say that).

The Patriots are an organization headed by a coach with questionable ethics. Dallas is a team living large off an inspired quarterback who can sustain drives by moving in the pocket. They have no effective backup. Will the Patriot front seven try to injure Romo? Only if the game ends up being played on a day of the week ending in "y". Nobody will say that on the air, even if a Patriot lineman runs onto the field with with a tire iron in one hand and kneecaps Romo.

Who is the key player in the game? The papers say the quarterbacks. Some say Terrell Owens and Randy Moss. I say Mat McBriar, the Cowboy punter. He is the best in the league since Ray Guy and gives Dallas a field position edge which will force New England to gain more yards and use more time to score. Count the yards behind where each drive starts. The team that loses the field position battle (likely New England) will lose.

You are going to hear about Romo's interceptions against Buffalo, and about his dad's prostate surgery. Neither are going to have anything to do with the outcome. Consider this. They have a name for NFL quarterbacks who haven't figured out how to focus on the game they are in. It's road kill. Once the game starts quarterbacks are who they are, for better and worse. That means two interceptions for Romo and three touchdown passes.

New England has a good running game. Morris and Maroney both average nearly five yards a carry. That, and not Brady, represents the nightmare scenario for Dallas. If the game turns into "Running Backs Gone Wild" you can put out the fire and call in the dogs. Dallas will be toast.

All that said, games like this are heavy weight matches. They start slow (the coaches hope) as the teams seek an advantage. Odds are the first team to land a hard blow, whether it's a turnover or a sustained drive, will win.

Common sense tells you New England wins this one 28-23. But Tony Romo seems blissfully ignorant of conventional wisdom and the game is being played in Dallas. Let's give this one to Dallas, 30-28.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.