Frost and football analysts are appearing in equal measure this time of year. It's the midway point of the NFL season and grimly serious, determined looking men sit before cameras and look earnestly into the unblinking eye to give us the news. "I'm sorry, sir, I'm just back from the operating room and I'm afraid the Cowboys aren't going to make it." You cry a little inside, hope for a miracle, and go back to three hour pacing sessions in front of your TV.
There is, hope, and there isn't. First, remember who experts are. Experts are people who don't coach in the NFL. Some played the game, but long enough ago that 75% of what they know is probably 50% wrong. We're listening to Michael Irvin, a man who might could find us a good time on Saturday night in the greater Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area, but probably isn't the best source for insight into the NFL. Jimmy Johnson? Is there any area of human endeavour you would ask a man with that hairdo for advice? Terry Bradshaw? The cousin the Duke boys never talk about. Chris Collingsworth? The man looks more and more like Reverend Lovejoy from "The Simpsons".
Why, you might as well listen to a blogger......eh, wait, let me rephrase that. In the interest of science, the advancement of mankind, and for a good laugh when it turns out later on that I was wronger than a Republican pollster on Wednesday, here is my sure fire method of ranking the contenders at mid-season.
First, we eliminate any team not at .500. The last time a team under .500 at the halfway mark made the Super Bowl was (I think) never. Then we turn our attention to what the playoffs are. They are games between teams with winning records. So we toss out from consideration any game not involving two teams at .500 or better. Since the playoffs are about home field advantage, we also are going to look hard at who wins on the road and (more importantly) loses at home. Which leaves us with (ranked in order):
New England 3-1 vs .500+ teams 93 pts for (O) 54 pts against (D) +39 3 road wins 1 home L
Kick out the Denver loss at home at it gets even more impressive.
Need to find a direction: Eagles, Bengals, Panthers, Seahawks
Born to be bland: Vikings, Chiefs, Rams
Thanks for coming in, we'll call you if something comes up: Jets.
It's not the greatest NFL season of all-time already and it may get worse. The up side is that some underperformers may get their acts together and challenge. It's that kind of season.
So you say about New England "kick out the Denver loss . . ."
And about Denver "but lose to St. Louis?"
What are you, some kind of Bronco hater?? Just kidding, of course. In the preseason, I picked Baltimore and Denver to play for the AFC title, Carolina and Seattle for the NFC.
You have a good breakdown here, Duds. And other than dismissing the Jets, (and your anti-Bronco remarks), I would have to say you're on the right track. I would put the Jets in with the 'might surprise' group, because they are kind of lurking, flying under the radar. They have a very good chance at making a wildcard spot. Big test for them this week at N.E.
Of course I haven't slept all week, which is normal for me after a Cowboys loss . . .
I will definitely agree with you that this is not a great NFL season. I guess I'm a little old school and this whole parity thing is not all it's cracked up to be.
I am hoping the NFL implements some sort of BCS system midway through the year. Then perhaps a few voters could be impressed by that 20-13 win over the DEFENDING CHAMPS! and put the Raiders into the playoffs, right? Hey, I can be delusional.
This is a lot of numbers, but I think you've got the teams in the right groups.
One exception might be the Chargers who other than having an untested QB are pretty damn good.
NorCal and Ricko-I think you both hit on teams I like (who may not have benefitted from this way of looking at it). The Broncos have great defense, which never hurts in the playoffs. The Chargers can score against anyone. I think both have a chance.
Con-That is the best line of the day! Of course, if the NFL were the NCAA, the Dolphin team that went undefeated wouldn't have been allowed in the Super Bowl.
