This year's playoff teams are alot like the big Kentucky Derby fields at Churchill Downs. There are a few picks that will get alot of attention, some solid entrees worth looking at, a couple of longshots, and alot of horses with no business in the race. After careful review of the NFL team stats, here's how I handicap the field of 14 (allowing for all teams still in contention for a playoff spot):
CLASS OF THE FIELD
Denver Broncos Conventional wisdom says the Colts, but in an environment that magnifies mistakes the Broncos don't make them. Key stat lines- +18 giveaway/takeaway margin, only 28 sacks and interceptions combined (tied with Indianapolis), and 17 pass plays of 40 or more yards.
Seatlle Seahawks Other than a lack of playoff experience it's hard to find a flaw in the Seahawks. Key stat line-28 rushing touchdowns. Cause for concern-only 17 field goals and a 70.8% average.
Indianapolis Colts Not a horse to bet on, despite being the early favorite. Hasn't been stretched out by competition. Key stat line-surprisingly only 13 plays from scrimmage longer than 20 yards. Gives up 300 yards per game on defense and a 66.8% pass completion percentage.
SOLID STARTERS
Pittsburgh Steelers Why not? Solid defense and field goal kicking can go far in the playoffs. I worry that they are too predictable on offense. Key stat lines-Runs the ball 58.8% of the time. Eighty-four yards per game rushing defense.
Cincinnati Bengals A ball hawking defense and potentially explosive offense. Gives up more yards and pass completions than I'd like to see, but the offensive line gives Palmer all kinds of time. Key stat line-31 interceptions. Reason to worry-61.4% pass completion percentage given up on defense. Can they get a Payton Manning off the field?
Carolina Panthers A one good receiver team in a league that demands two. I hesitate to place them this high, but their defense is this good and Jake Delhomme makes alot from a little. Key stat lines-Only 677 yards in penalties on offense, 23 passing TD's, and 12 receptions for 40 yards or more. Why worry? Only 3.2 yards a rush.
Overrated
New England Patriots Johnny Damon left town and so has the Pats mystique. Lots of weaknesses showing up all at once. Key stat- Minus 5 giveaway/takeaway. No team wins the Super Bowl with a negative in this category. More bad news-231.5 yards per game passing by their opponents. The Pats pass 57% of the time, which is a bad stat in the playoffs where most teams got there by putting strong pressure on the QB.
New York Giants Eli Manning will be a fine playoff quarterback, but not yet. Key stat-327.7 yards per game given up by the defense. The Giants won't get Manning on the field and with 17 interceptions a 4 interception day against a tough defense isn't out of the question.
Save Some Money For
Jacksonville Jaquars My insane long shot. Rock solid defense gets opponents off the field. Key stat line-65.6 average kickoff distance. It's an arcane stat, but when the playoffs come around field position is king. At no extra charge-Did you know the Jags only give up 31.9% of 3rd down conversions?
Dallas Cowboys Win one for the Tuna has a nice ring to it. A team with line play this bad shouldn't last past the first round (if they make the playoffs). But remember this key stat-The Cowboys ran 126 more plays from scrimmage than their opponents. A team with an uncanny knack for snatching victory from the jaws of defeat.
Sucker Bets
Kansas City Chiefs An offense that is hitting on all cylinders and a defense that couldn't drive a moped. The only stat you need to know-339.2 yards per game yielded on defense.
Washington Redskins With much respect due to Joe Gibbs, this isn't the Redskins year. Key stat lines- Gave up over 20 yards on 18 plays from scrimmage. Minus 4 giveaway/takeaway. Brunell will not give games away, but he also isn't who you want to see on the field down by more than a touchdown in the 3rd quarter.
Tampa Bay Bucaneers What do they do well? Not much. What do they do badly? Not much. Key stat line-Only 275.9 yards per game by opponents.
Chicago Bears An old fashioned Bears defense, and unfortunately an offense that recalls the glory days of Jack Concannon. Key stats-Opponents have run 38 more plays from scrimmage, 127 yards passing, 28 giveaways.
Summary-Look for the Broncos to take the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. Forget about the Colts, look out for the Jags, and keep an eye on the Steelers and Bengals. The rest are pretenders.
Won't you ever learn? The Patriots are at it again. The damage to the turnover ratio was done early in the season, and did you see the game last night? They ran it like 50 times.
I second that...The Patriots aren't overrated; they've won three of the past four Super Bowls.
As far as overrated, the Broncos and Seahawks.
In the AFC, I think the Steelers and Patriots will do damage; In the NFC, if the Panthers stop the run, they could do well, but they probably need to win the division to have a good shot in the playoffs; i also like the Bears and Redskins.
These stats are, for a lack of a better word, out of context. The Redskins may have given up some big plays, early in the season, along with the problems with the turnovers! In the past 4 games that ratio has gone from probably -11 to -4. In addition, what do you mean by: "Brunell will not give games away, but he also isn't who you want to see on the field down by more than a touchdown in the 3rd quarter."? Very few of the losses by the Redskins this year have been when they are down by a touchdown in the third. Generally they have been leading by 7-10 and just try to kill the clock in the second half. But obviously that has changed with an increase in aggresiveness on offense in the second half.
I will agree that the Redskins may not make it, but they do have the ability to beat any team out there, just like they beat NY this weekend, Chicago in week 1, Seattle in week 4, and should have beaten Tampa when Alstot (or whatever hi sname is) didnt cross the goal line.
The two best things the Patriots have going for them are experience and very loyal fans. But here are three reasons they won't be back in the Super Bowl:
1. Corey Dillon is ####ed up and not that
productive even when healthy. As a result
the Pats have gone from a 50/50 attack to
almost 60/40 passing, making them easier to
defend against.
2. They have given up 24 TD's and only have 10
interceptions. Last year it was 18 and 20.
3. Their pass rush has dropped way off, from 45
to 31.
Great organization, outstanding coach, great fans, but I'm not expecting much from them in the playoffs.
I do like your comparison to Race Betting, it fits well with the pack in the Super Bowl Hunt.
As for the Patriots fans: take another look at their weak "end of season schedule". Their last outing wiht the Jets? now come on .. thhis was not competition. The Steelers have played much stiffer competition in their closing weeks.
I invite you all to see my blog on: Steelers: The "Dark Horse" in the AFC, the only team that can K/O the Colts ... based on current berth posn. and actuall rankings and considering their surge.
New England doesn't have the "D" rating to go very far... and the Bears don't have the offence to finish in the stretch. Manning is very vulnerable to the blitz, as the Colts showed in their loss to the Chargers, and in previous Pats games (where he lost when PAts had a solid D).
New England is back as a solid contender... but do they really have enough to get past Denver? I think they fall in game two of the playoff rounds.
Last edited by NFLFan on December 28th at 10:05 AM.
FredEx. Thanks for the comment. The worst criticism is not getting any response at all. The stat talk does get kind of bland, but alot of sports fans are into stats. Guess I'm one of them.
I can't disagree too much with your assessment, except for the fact that the Jacksonville Jaguars might be one of the single most overrated teams in NFL history and they do not have a prayer of winning a first round game. Book it.
Interesting. But I wouldn't call the Pat's overrated. They'll be the ones to sneak up and get you. They can't help that they have lost a lot of key players on their defense. That's the main reason why they are not as good. Brady has but that whole team on his back, especially when he RB group started to deplete. But look at what happened when he didn't have to. 3 out of 4 Super Bowls.
I've seen the Jaguars in person about 5 times this year, including the game against my favorite team, the Broncos. They don't look like a team that could go far in the playoffs despite a very nasty defense. The problem with their D is that they seem to go into shock when an offense like Denver's or Indy's actually pushes them around. The Jag's D believes its own press clippings and likes to think they are unstoppable. However, I don't consider them "overrated" as much of the nation doesn't even know who the Jaguars are. This is a good football team with a bright future (provided Leftwich at least develops into average and they can replace Fred Taylor and Jimmy Smith). I like them better than the Bengals, and I think they match up well with the Colts (look at how close their games have been over the last 2 years). The problem is, they stand no chance against the Patriots.
Last edited by sportslackey on December 29th at 7:33 AM.
As for the Broncos, well given their playoff performances the last 2 seasons, I am dubious at the prospect of them winning at Indy. If the Pats can knock the Colts off though, I think Denver is Super Bowl bound. The Broncos have played a nasty schedule this year and done very well. They beat Philly when McNabb was still playing (a week or so after he shredded the Chefs). They beat Washington, New England, the Chargers, the Cowboys, the Chiefs, the Jaguars. Two of their three losses- at NY Giants and at KC- were games they could have and probably should have one. The opening loss to the Dolphins was just a bad game. To go Hubie Brown for a minute- any time you have a team that can run the ball and defend the run, you are talking about a team poised to make a deep playoff run. They do not match up well with Indy at all and that is what will ultimately undo them.
I can't count out the Pats as long as the front seven and Brady stay healthy. The biggest problem with your predictions is the Seahawks. Look at their schedule, talk about weak. The only support for the Seahawks is the lack of any solid NFC team.
