The Jeopardy Answer Of The Day is... "Whoopy Dee Damn Do." - Derrick Coleman
The Question?
What is "Hey, Paris Hilton was released yesterday!"? DING!
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Every damn June, I tune into the NBA Draft and get reminded how I'm making money the hard way.
I mean, people get PAID to draft J. J. Reddick 11th overall....what is that [insert profane gerund here] GM thinking about? There are few certainities, but here is one: There is some genius who will pass on a Josh Howard to take a Brian Cook. (Yeah, I'm still ticked about that one.) You get the idea. NBA drafting isn't rocket science. (Yes, I know something about rocket science - this ain't it.) Yet, almost every year, at least 2 or 3 GMs fall on their face. You could spend the next hour reading technical reasons - and NBA sabermetrics are still dicey. But in a nutshell?
No one uses their common sense. If GMs did, the (L)eastern Conference wouldn't get their heads handed to them every year by the West. Then again, the draft wouldn't be half as much fun.
Anyhow, here are some Drafting For Dummies tips for all of you:
Upside is wonderful for dating a significant other. If she's 35, no kids, a tight body and can tie a cherry stem into a knot with her tongue - she has mad upside.
Alas, upside does NOT work very well with most NBA players. Look for at least five players to be drafted higher than they ought to be because of "upside". Expect one of them - if we're all lucky - to work out. (See DeSanger Diop, Rodney White, etc) If you hear "upside" attached to a player, odds are that he'll either be a 9th or 10th man 4 years from now, or he'll find some game with a different team.
The NBA Draft makes men sound, uh, less "manly" than they ought to be. You'll hear Jay Bilas or Hubie Brown talk about a prospect being "long" and having a "great body", the same way Peter Graves asked little Robbie if he had ever seen a grown man naked in "Airplane!" All that's missing is some oiled male torsi... Put away your copy of "Roadhouse" and "Top Gun" - it just so happens that there are only so many ways to talk about the potential athleticism of a NBA prospect without having a Brokeback Moment.
But seriously, does Bilas watch gladiator movies? Heh heh heh...
If you are a GM, and the opportunity presents itself to draft a center - if the center in question is not being compared to an All-Star - PASS. This especially applies to 1) Slow, white American-born college centers and, 2) centers with very difficult to pronounce names (such as Mouhamed Saer Sene). For a while, it seemed that any brother from The Motherland (that's African for the hip-imparied) over 6-10 was being drafted in case they turned into the next Dikembe or Hakeem.
We're still waiting. This year, it will be Spencer Hawes.
Avoid drafting a player who played poorly against lesser players with better athleticism, especially guards who lived to shoot against zones (see Reddick, J.J., Drew, Bryce). It doesn't get much easier in the NBA ya know. The average player may be poor in the basics, but I'll bet my Tony Parker bachelor party tickets that he's an good "at-uh-lete", as we say in the South.
By the way, a good GM should look for a guy who played well at the best conferences. (See Howard and Chris Paul.) Production does count you know.
Avoid players who set the cruise control in college despiteprodding. Tim Thomas is the poster boy here for living heart donors. He was a Poster Boy in college. Surprise! He's a pro Poster Boy too.
And to think, Tim had such upside. He was long...and a "live" body...I wish I could quit him.
This one is real important: If a very good player fills a big need - take him. Simple. The Atlanta hawks needed a point guard. They passed on Deron Williams and Chris Paul, to take Marvin Williams. Marvin was such a stud that Atlanta is now looking at Al Horford who plays... the SAME POSITION!
Funny thing is, Atlanta is looking like the Detroit Lions. Every year the Lions passed on other needs to take a wideout. Finally, they HAD to take a wide receiver this year, because Calvin Johnson was too damned good to pass on, no matter what their other needs were.. Same thing will probably happen this year with the Hawks. And it will be the right move...and Mike Conley will haunt the Hawks for the next decade.
OK...now that you are primed on what to look for, here is WHO to look for. No fancy ratings, simple. Best case and worst case. Don't ya love it when I keep it simple?
The G-Report Player Ratings:
Greg Oden - Ohio State Hope: That he is the next Bill Russell. Or at least Ben Wallace Squared - with some offense. Fear: That his wrist has the karma of Grant Hill's ankle.
Kevin Durant - Texas Hope: He's Kevin Garnett with handle. Fear: He steps into an open manhole.
Mike Conley Jr. - Ohio State Hope: He's Mo Cheeks and Mike Bibby, but much quicker. Fear: He's Jamal Tinsley, but much quicker.
Spencer Hawes - Washington Hope: He's Bill Laimbeer or Vlade Divac. Fear: He's Big Country Reeves
Al Horford - Florida Hope: He's Karl Malone. Fear: He's Tito Horford.
Yi Jianlian Hope: He is the next Bob McAdoo. Fear: He's the next Tim Thomas.
Jeff Green - Georgetown Hope: He's Scotty Pippen, with some low-post game. Fear: He never learns to shoot.
Joakim Noah - Florida Hope: Noah is a young Paul Silas. Fear: Noah is Mark Madsen with a ponytail.
Corey Brewer - Florida Hope: He's another Scotty Pippen. Fear: He's a poor man's Larry Hughes. You expect so much more.
Brandan Wright - North Carolina Hope: That three years from now, Wright looks like Shawn Marion. Fear: Three years from now, his nickname is "Brenda".
Acie Law - Texas A&M Hope: Law becomes another Chauncey Billups one day. Fear: Law is a not-so-Speedy Claxton.
Nick Young Hope: Nick shoots it like Peja Stojakovic. Fear: Remember John Salmons?
Julian Wright Hope: He's a bigger, better Boris Diaw. Fear: He forgets that taking over a game is not illegal.
Morris Almond - Rice U. Hope: He is the next Ricky Pierce (It's a Rice thing.), or better, Michael Redd. Fear: He's the next Steve Kerr.
Jared "From Subway" Dudley - Boston College Hope: He develops into a poor man's Shane Battier. Fear: The real Shane Battier isn't making anyone's All-Star team.
Nick Fazekas - Nevada Hope: He's been likened to Keith Van Horn with a better inside game. Fear: Anybody likened to Keith Van Horn isn't hitting on much.
Glen "Big Baby" Davis - LSU Hope: He's a taller Charles Barkley who keep his weight down and his game up. Fear: Either he'll 1) Eat a teammate. or 2) He'll single-handedly cause the NBA to add food to their substance abuse list.
Jarvis Crittenton - G-Tech Hope: He can play the point like Reggie Theus Fear: He plays the point like Earl Watson.
how bout the acc player of the year? how about jared dudley? josh howard was acc player of the year. if he played at UNC or Duke intead of wake he would have been a lotery pick. i think some folks will be mighty upset they didn't pick up this dudley cat. talk abot playing big in a big time program in big time games. jared fits the bill.
Last edited by JoshQPublic on June 27th at 11:18 AM.
Pat Williams once told a joke about Barkley before he got his weight down: He said once his kids asked if they could go into the ocean. He said, "Not now kids, Charles is using it."
great post! I really loved the theme. Additional examples of whit ebig guys who were taken way too high: Shawn Bradley (too easy), Greg Ostertag (I just saw a thing on youtube that has him dancing in a speedo, I am now scarred for life) Darko. A scary combination of white euro, and lots of upside. And he is about to make 10 mil a year!
A cute man who knows what a gerund is. Ooh! A turn-on. (Yes, this is entered a second time. Yes, I do not know what I'm doing. This is what happens when people with little interest in sports enter sports blogs. Are you smiling? If so, ring me. =)
G.H. Brooks (aka "Dr. Midnight" to his loyal fan base) is a 2-time Next Great Sportswriter (NGS) Finalist. One would think that bringing game like that would net me *something* - a cool icon to mark my site, some love from Fox Sports, cash, but noooo... :-)
I'm broadcasting live from New York City after a hiatus from the blogging scene, takes on life, sports, and whatever passing thoughts are shooting through my head. The good and bad ..passionate, logical, and on point.
It's a G Thing.... you can look me up at newjack1@eart hlink.net
