The Miami Dolphins were not expected to be very good coming into the 2008 season. After all, they went a putrid 1-15 last season, the front office and coaching staff were overhauled coming into the season, and they had jettisoned long-time veterans Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas, among others. It seemed that, even with the venerable Bill Parcells in charge, it would take at least two to three seasons to turn it around.

But, after starting with two losses, the Dolphins have come back with stunning and impressive victories over the defending AFC champion Patriots (38-13) and the team they beat for the AFC title, the Chargers (17-10). Highly impressive stuff for a team nobody expected to compete. The Pats victory saw the Dolphins play the college single-wing with Ronnie Brown, who scored 4 TDs and threw for a fifth. The Chargers game saw them hold LaDainian Tomlinson to 35 rushing yards and the explosive Chargers’ O to 202 yards. So, after that, are the Dolphins a legit contender in the AFC? I don’t think that they are. Here’s why.

 1. They don’t have legit pass weapons, and Chad Pennington doesn’t have the arm to keep defenses on their toes: The top receiver so far is Greg Camarillo, who has 17 catches and 214 yards. Only Anthony Fasano has more than 1 TD receiving, and Pennington’s best passing day was 251 yards in the season opener against the Jets. Those same Jets traded for Brett Favre and released Pennington in part because he didn’t have the arm to throw deep and keep defenses honest. Further evidence of a team wasting a good running game (like the Dolphins have with Brown and Ricky Williams) is the Vikings, who despite having Adrian Peterson, are 1-3 entering Monday night. Unless Pennington can improve the pass attack, teams can stack the box and limit the Dolphins’ effectiveness.

2. Gimmick offenses work for only so long: After surprising the Patriots with the single-wing offense (leading to Brown’s big TD day), the Chargers did a better job against it, as Brown gained just 49 yards on 11 plays from the formation (although one of the plays led to the decisive touchdown). Teams will eventually have game film of this offense to plan defenses against, and the Dolphins will be forced to adjust their gameplan, which could be bad for Brown, who has just recovered from a severe knee injury. That connects to #1, since once the run offense cools, can the pass O step up?

 3. The defense doesn’t force turnovers: While the Dolphins don’t commit many turnovers (just 2 all year), they haven’t forced many, either. The Dolphins have just one INT (only the Lions have fewer INTs than they do) and two fumble recoveries; the three turnovers forced ranks ahead of only the Lions (2), Rams (2) and Giants (2) in the NFL. Unless they become more opportunistic, they won’t put their uncertain offense in good field position, and points will thus be harder to come by.

 4. The schedule has pitfalls: The Dolphins have some favorable matchups (they face the winless Rams & Texans, plus the struggling Raiders and Chiefs, albeit on the road except for Oakland), but there are some difficult matchups, such as the Bills (who shouldn’t give up 41 points again) twice, the Pats in a return trip (and likely thirsty for revenge), the Broncos, the Ravens, and the Jets in the season finale. The Dolphins’ inability to force turnovers and lack of passing makes it to where they must play a near-perfect game to win those games. That’s too high of a standard for any team, much less a young team, to live up to.

 5. The AFC East is tough: As stated above, they still have four games left within their division. They play Buffalo twice, the Pats at home, and the Jets on the road in the finale where the playoff hopes of both teams could be hanging in the balance. Being a young team, they could be exposed in those games, and finishing third in a division with other contenders like the Colts, Ravens and Chargers jockeying for those two wild card spots probably won’t cut it.

 So, after all of that, how will the Dolphins fare? The Texans next week could allow them to be 3-2, but a stretch against the Ravens (home game), Bills (home game) and Broncos (road game) is going to be a make-or-break stretch. If they can win at least two of those games, then they have a great chance to win 9-10 games and compete for the playoffs (assuming they beat Houston). If not, then the best they can hope for is 7-9 and a look ahead to next year.