Before I begin today, let me address last night. I said in my blog that the Spurs' run at their second straight title would end last night. And, of course, that didn't happen. I was ready to use today's post to write an apology letter (and that would have been the enitre post). After sleeping on it, however, I came to the conclusion that the thought of it would be boring and longwinded. But most of all, it would have been bitter, and I don't want to sound bitter (cynical, yes; bitter, no). So, I'll keep it brief; Sorry, Spurs fans. You obviously showed the championship mettle that the Hornets lacked, and congrats on the victory.
Now then, let's use this post more wisely; to preview the Spurs' matchup with the Lakers, a matchup many people (including Jalen Rose, Jay Mariotti, Skip Bayless, etc.) wanted to see. As I said yesterday, the Lakers probably prefer this matchup not for any mismatches they could exploit, but to affirm thier ascent by beating the best the NBA has to offer. Let's look at it position-by-position and give an early prediction (take it for what it's worth; a stick of gum):
Point Guard: Tony Parker vs Derek Fisher appears, on paper, to be a mismatch, but to use an oft-heard comment, Fisher has the championship savvy (he has as many rings as Parker does) and is still a good defender. If he can just keep Parker in check and hit a few threes, the Lakers will live with that.
Shooting Guard: How can you choose against the MVP of the league? No offense to Manu Ginobili, but Kobe always wins in a comparison. Expect Bruce Bowen to defend (and try to roughhouse), but Kobe will get his points.
Small Forward: Ginobili will instead guard Vlad Radmanovic (who cares about spelling?), who is too streaky for my tastes. Radmanovic and Luke Walton (who didn't do much against Utah) will do for "Sir Flops-a-Lot" what Ginobili does on Kobe; they'll let Kobe defend Manu, and guard Bowen instead. Good idea.
Power Forward: Let's assume that Tim Duncan is the center here (he is listed as one, after all). So,the matchup here is Fabricio Oberto and Kurt Thomas against Lamar Odom and Ronny Turiaf. Oberto showed his usefulness by facilitating scores through his passes, and Thomas was a offensive rebounding beast in limited minutes last night. But if Odom plays like he did against the Jazz, and slashes to the rack on these slower defenders, he could be the biggest factor in this series.
Center: The head-to-head matchup everyone is curious about is Duncan versus Pau Gasol. The last time these two met in the postseason (2004 1st round), Duncan dominated, and the Spurs swept. That won't happen here (the sweep, mind you), but Gasol didn't have to defend premier post players in the prior two rounds (Marcus Camby and Memhet Okur don't qualify), and that could be a problem for the Lakers. Expect the Spurs to use Duncan like last night and have him attack the D early and often to slow the tempo in their favor and open up the perimeter game (the Spurs shot only 37% from two last night, but were 42% from three).
Coaches: Unlike the Eastern coaches matchup, few coaching duels today are better than Gregg Popovich and Phil Jackson. These are the gold standard for coaches, with 13 titles and 14 Finals berths, among other accolades, in their careers. In four head-to-head matchups, Jackson has a 3-1 series edge and a 14-7 overall playoff record against Popovich, but he had Shaq for all four series. How he fares with Gasol will be key (here's where Andrew Bynum's injury really hurts). Whoever establishes his tempo will win this series.
Prediction: Game one is critical for both teams; the Spurs have been here before (now I sound like Mariotti), whereas most of the core Lakers haven't (Kobe excluded, of course). I'll say the Lakers win game one, and in fact, the home team will win the first four games. The Lakers then win game 5 at home, and in a mild surprise, The Lakers end the series in SA in six. The Spurs' run will end at home, to the delight of David Stern and the NBA executives who can't wait for their demise (so, that means the Spurs will win if my luck continues).
All in all a great blog. Nice job on the blog with the exception of Gasol not playing a quality post up player. In the Jazz series he played Defense on Boozer 75% of the time on the blocks, hence the reason Boozer struggled so badly.
well well another one of those spurs-hatin-laker lovin' posts.. what else is new? all u lakers fans thought that the spurs are the easier team to beat rather than the hornets...
yada yada.. fisher sink a tray yada yada.. all the lakers need is some kind of a fluke with .4 secs left to beat the spurs (with shaq) and what makes any difference now? gasol aint no shaq, the guy cant even play d.. amare stoudamire looks like a hell of a defensive presence instead of pau.. (and amare's defense consists of just standing and getting shoved down the post)
this guy who wrote this post reminds me of charles barkley... =S
I hear what you're saying... LA and Boston are the picks NBA nation wants to see in historic thro wback fashion to the great match ups gone by. No Doubt Kobe will be on his game, im just not sure I can count the spurs out just yet. Need to see the first two games in LA, Kobe will have a great series, but I think SAS will have adjustments for the other players. We'll see...
LeBroom:
yada yada.. fisher sink a tray yada yada.. all the lakers need is some kind of a fluke with .4 secs left to beat the spurs (with shaq) and what makes any difference now? gasol aint no shaq, the guy cant even play d.. amare stoudamire looks like a hell of a defensive presence instead of pau.. (and amare's defense consists of just standing and getting shoved down the post)
You must not be watching these games because Pau is playing great D and so is the whole team. I for one would of rather seen the Hornets the Snores are always scarey, but plz dont come to blogs and rag on someones opinion and call them a hater when you are being a much bigger and obvious hater. Watch the games before you speak.....BTW Lakers in 6 GO LAKERS!
Broom: Guess you are conveniently forgetting the Duncan "fluke" by banking in a shot from the TOP OF THE KEY that preceded the Fisher "fluke". One "fluke" just canceled out the other.
However, I do believe the Lake Show will have its hands full with the defending champs. We could really use Bynum in this series. The kid was coming into is own and would have been a big help on the glass at both ends. However, if Ariza gets medical clearance, that gives the Lakers one more perimeter defender to throw at Ginobli and Parker.
Still think Lakers are a year away. IF, they get by SA, I don't see them getting by DET. Pistons will get by C's
Although San Antonio is good, I feel good in that the Lakers are playing a poorer offensive team. They'll be exerting so much energy against the Spurs Defense, that it will be nice to not need to exert much energy on the defensive end. I think the Lakers Offense is way better than the Spurs and that the Lakers Defense is formidable when compared to the Spurs. I don't think it would be impossible for the Lakers to win in 5, but they will likely win in 6.
Boston won the season series with Detroit and I think they'll win in 5 as well. They will definitely be out to win a road game and will likely do it in game 3.
I think there are good points for both teams, but I think the reason the spurs win in seven is becasue they are so fundamental. After getting blown out in New Orleans the first two games, they kept there composure and took the two at home. The only way the lakers have a chance is if they win 3 straight to break the Spurs spirits. In a long series the Spurs have to be the favorites because they are sooo hard to rattle. Sure they complain and get feisty, but they never go away from their game plan, they just keep chugging away. They have soo many weapons (pick and roll, pick and pop, over and under screens and the kickout from duncan), that you have to have a defensive TEAM to beat them. If one guy is having trouble with his assignment, the spurs exploit that until that guy is removed and another option opens. If they double duncan the spurs will light them up with threes and if they dont then gasol will be abused by one of the most fundamental players to ever play the game. That should be enough for my first post.
LeBroom say's Who's gonna guard Duncan? first of Duncan is not an Offensive juggernaut like KOBE. and his slow and finese same as GaSoft. Boozer and Okur are bullys they push and shove. but that didn't help them Gasoft and Odom are the advantage. and KOBE will expose the old Spurs defense. better bring Eva Parker for some help!!
Lakers in 6!!
I like to watch the Spurs cry at evey little foul that is called against them. If there were a sport,"syncronized whinning", they would be gold medalist! It will be a joy seeing the Lakers get another championship.
Its not very often I root for the Spurs (NEVER!!), but last night I did. Phil and Kobe couldn't say it, but I definitely prefr the Spurs to the Hornets in the WCF. The Spurs had a 15 point lead starting the 4th quarter and the Hornets still closed to within 3 before it was over. just like the last game against the LAKERS when LA had a 30+ lead and barely hung on to win. The Spurs on the other hand have a pattern of offensive lapses. That was demonstrated again last night when NO mounted the comeback. I believe the LAKERS offense is firing on all cylinders and they can overcome the SA defense. I'm glad we don't have to play the(over)confident, athletic Hornets.
I think the Spurs are worn out and the LAKERS should take them in 5. Then they will beat Detroit in 6. I'm predicting Boston gets rudely awaken with their first home loss tonight and they will be done in 5. Again, I would rather see Boston than Detroit because they are a team of hacks that obviously can't handle post-season play.
Wow, what a debate! I'll include this; this series will be a struggle. The Spurs won't give that title up without a fight, but do you expect Kobe to back off now that he's on the cusp of a career-defining title? That's another key difference maker.
(btw, that's the first time I've been called a Laker lover, LeBroom. Feels different, for sure. But I have no bias; I just think the Lakers will win.)
misterwebber - i hope the lakers players take the spurs offense as lightly as you are... parker and manu will have field days... LA can't afford to have Kobe guarding Manu all the time b/c it will get him in foul trouble - Spurs will have a lot of open looks from 3- only question is will they fall.
Am I hearing you right that the laker cakewalking through the nuggets (no defense whatsoever) and the jazz (no bench) compares to the spurs going through the suns and the hornets? The spurs are the most balanced team in the playoffs. They have finley, udoka,thomas and even Horry, Oh yeah and that 6th man of the year winner Ginobli. The lakers havent played a team in the playoffs yet that can keep their poise during a tough game. It will be classic if bowen matches up against kobe, he wont stop him but he will agitate him in to typical stupid kobe shots to force the issue. Then that leaves the ever so tall fisher to play ginobli, we know how that will go. If you think that gasol can gaurd Duncan 1 on 1, you should watch tape of when stoudamire and chandler tried that. The lakers hold the advantage with kobe for sure, but I am not so sure of Odom, and walton will be a non issue. Spurs in 7 (if not 6)
I think the Spurs will win game one since the Lakers have been resting and might lose their rhythm. The Lakers seem similar to the Suns when they had Marion. They aren't that good defensively and Duncan doesn't have to go up against Chandler any more so look for him to go off this series. Kobe is great but the rest of the guys will be kept in check and there is no one on the Lakers staying in front of Parker or stopping Duncan. I won't even mention Manu. Spurs in 6 or 7.
I am not a fan of neither one of those teams but I think that the Spurs will win on 6,kobe will get his point but if Ginobli plays like he did against the Hornets and Bowen continues to hit those trey's when they count, as he did last series, bye bye LAKERS
Last edited by boriquita1326 on May 20th at 3:43 PM.
Well fellas the Spurs run is at its end & the "Mamba" is poised to strike with deadly precision...plain and simple Lamar Odom will be the
one intangible the Spurs don't have an answer for Oh and of course Kobe...D-Fish will keep Parker in check by scoring on the other end so that San Antonio will have to play each man straight up...
There is no one to foul freely ie Shaq, Tyson Chandler, because all the Lakers can make free throws...All the flopping calls will deminish when
the Refs just let the game unfold, Kobe is ready for his 1st ring without the Big Anchor (Shaq)...
Also just wait until next year when Bynum is healthy also that front line of Bynum, Gasol & Odom
will be rediculous...Go Lakers!!!!!
I think this will be a good series. Kobe will get his points, but Bowen will frustrate him like always. Pau hasn't faced a defense or offense like Duncans. As much as I like Fisher, he can't stay with Parker. And of course the 6th man, Ginobili will be a huge difference. Even thought they are "old", you can't rattle SA. Spurs in 7.
Stop saying IF the Lakers play like they did against Utah/Denver!!!! Those games are done and over, ie, apples versus oranges. I will tell you that this is going to be an awesome matchup. The Spurs are a very tough defensive team and they have the the experience, plus the fire-power. The Lakers are offensive minded (Kobe) and cannot afford to FORGET to play defense. My prediction is low scoring / slow/defensive pace game equals Spurs win. High scoring equals Lakers win IMHO. GO SPURS GO
Here's the thing. There are three scenarios at play here concerning Los Angeles.
1) If the Lakers can get away with playing Duncan single coverage throughout the series and L.A.'s bigz can stay away from foul trouble, then LAKERS IN FIVE.
2) If the Lakers have to constantly double Duncan, then it will open up San Antonio's three point shooters making the Lakers scramble on defense. But can San Antonio OUTSCORE the Lakers?
As we know, the Lakers have averaged well over 110 points in the playoffs. If the Lakers double duncan on and off, Lakers still win because of DEPTH, especially with Trevor Ariza back. They can stick Trevor on Manu, allowing Kobe to conserve energy by guarding Bowen, who sits on the corner spot all day waiting to get a pass. LAKERS IN SIX.
3) If Lakers blow out the Spurs in Games 1 & 2, best believe they will finish them off in San Antonio, unlike the previous letdown on the road in the Utah series. The Lakers, at the same time, won't have a letdown on the road like the Hornets did in San Antonio. LAKERS IN FOUR.
when will u guys realize that when bet on the spurs losing thats the worst bet you could ever make..they'll just continue run through these teams weather its in 4 games or 7 ..holla@me
spurs in 5...6i f they get lucky
Its true that the big question is how effective Gasol will be defensively. We know offensively he will get his 20+ points and 8+ rebounds. He was pretty good defensively against Utah, but Duncan is no Boozer...If Lamar keeps contributing offensively and Gasol is strong on Duncan, then the Lakers in 6 is a reasonable prediction.
Did you even watch the Laker-Jazz series? Every single game, the commentators said something about how the Jazz bench was outplaying the Lakers bench. Korver, Harpring, Millsap, Price...They ate up the Lakers bench. The Lakers definitely didn't have a cakewalk to get to this point.
Having said that, I don't see who will be guarding Duncan. Odom is athletic enough, but not quite tall enough, while Gasol is tall enough, but not strong enough. Odom will get his points through Oberto, but he is an underrated defender, and I think he will surprise Lamar a few possessions. If Kobe guards Manu, he will get fouls called, or he won't: that's the thing about the Spurs, is the either get calls or they don't, and I think they know that whining is either going to help them or hurt them; they are champions, after all.
And DMVP, let's not start the whole "dirty play" argument again; that was debated in the column talking about the Spurs beating the Hornets.
Downs, this post was a very insightful, unbiased piece of work. Not even the Foxsports.com writers could have done a better preview without bias. Keep up the good work
Spurs are the best Team in the NBA. You T urd Blossoms can dream all you want, but until you beat the Spurs- you are just Pretenders! GO SPURS
Ginobili, Duncan, And Parker have too much heart and talent to go away without victory. I'm looking foward to a hard fought series. I don't think Fisher can stop Parker, and I know the Lakers can't stop Duncan! I hope Kobe does spend all his energy trying to contain Manu- he will have less energy on offense. Robert Horry will be the X factor by slowing down Odom- the Lakers X factor. "Let the games begin!!!
LA’s defense is not at all patsy, they have shot down the lane most of the time during the LA-Utah match-up considering the Jazz were known to be a very physical team. They have proven that during their past two rounds and they prove doubters wrong again. If they can defend against Utah, there can be no reason why they cannot against San Antonio.
The Spurs will find that the Lakers will be too much to handle mainly with a determine Kobe on the line up. LA in 6!
I am not sure who will win, that is why they play the game, however both teams added personnel late in the season. The Spurs just started playing like the Spurs at the end of their injury plagued season. So I would be worried if I was LA. The Jazz and Nuggets can’t compare to the Suns/Hornets. The only question is will Kobe psych them out like he used to in the 4 quarter. But Shag is no longer there to push people around with out being called for fouls.
Did you see the look on Mr. Jackson’s face at the press conference on the upcoming conf final? He was not happy to be facing the Spurs. He is afraid of what Manu can do to his game plan. He is the X factor and is the only NBA player who can will his team to win other than Kobe. He would have chosen the Hornets as awesome as they are rather than the Spurs. He can only loose in this series no matter who wins. All the pros are favoring the Lakers and if he wins, well he should have, but if he looses to Pop, he will be regurgitating his Ego for weeks.
Oh yeah, Horry’s dirty play beat the Kings in game seven.
If you think that the spurs are equal to the spurs you are wrong. Duncan is leaps and bounds better that boozer, parker is much more effective than williams and who is comparable to ginobli, bowen/finley, and ever oberto with his intangables. This will be a great series that will deffinitly go 6 if not 7. There will be no competition for either of these teams to win the championship. It looks like it will be the west for a couple more years at least, even with the bulls getting the first pick
(sigh) Just because the national media + the NBA + David Stern + every half-#### fan who prefers flash and hype over substance and skill wants a Lakers vs Celtics Finals doesn't mean it's going to happen. Once again, the Spurs play the underdog (even though they are the defending champs). That's fine, it will all be worth it after game 6, when Kobe is sitting at the end of the bench, crying into his towel, and the Spurs are holding up the western conference trophy.
After watching (sleeping through) last night's game, I believe that the Lakers/Spurs game will be the most exciting. If the Spurs are considered boring to watch, what can we say then about the Celtics in the playoffs. Yes there were a couple of highlight plays but overall....yawn.
Whoever comes out of the West, will win it all. So far most of the games have been exciting and fun to watch. Even the blow outs.
Just another bitter Faker fan. Ya'll may squeak by in game 1 but the Spurs will take it in 5!!! Punk (a)ss Fakers No Riots I mean parades in La LA land this year!!! Go SPURS Go!!!
Ramboheel: "Robert Horry will be the X factor by slowing down Odom- the Lakers X factor."
ROFLMAO!!
I mean, seriously, are you a tard? Horry was old and slow when he left the Lakers 5 years ago. What is he now, 38? PLEASE tell Popovich to let Horry guard Odom the entire game. That would be fine for Lakers fans.
Keep in mind, the Spurs have NEVER won back to back titles -- and they won't again. (which is also why they are never referred to as a dynasty...)
Spurs hit their playoff average 90 points per game and the Lakers hit their playoff average of 110. Lakers steal game 4 in SA.
DaCriv said: "If you think that the spurs are equal to the spurs you are wrong. Duncan is leaps and bounds better that boozer, parker is much more effective than williams and who is comparable to ginobli, bowen/finley, and ever oberto with his intangables. This will be a great series that will deffinitly go 6 if not 7. There will be no competition for either of these teams to win the championship. It looks like it will be the west for a couple more years at least, even with the bulls getting the first pick."
Leaps and bound better than whom? Boozer? Parker more effective than Williams? I don’t think so, my friend, the last time I heard was they were the team with most home game won in the NBA and they were 3rd ranking in the West in the regulars. Please check your facts first and then come again and convince me that your SA team is better than Utah. They may still be in the running because in the 1st round they met a fast fading Suns team and in the 2nd it was the young and inexperienced Hornets whom they defeated in 7. As you mentioned Ginobili, Bowen and Finley, they maybe the key men coming from the bench to SA, but like I said they will have to penetrate the upgraded defense of the Lakers. Yes, while I agree that your Spurs will give us a semblance of competition, however at the end of the day it will the Lakers in 6.
I am David Downs, and I'm a sports nut who loves basketball and football and am open to good discussion about any sports subject. I am a Detroit sports fan, but I not a homer. Expect frequent vents on subjects that irritate me, and also expect the utmost respect for anybody's opinion, even if they disagree with me. Because, after all, that's what these blogs are all about, aren't they?
