For those of you wondering how the ACC could possibly get 9 teams in the Big Dance, here is some food for thought. First, I ask which team(s) would you leave out if the season had ended after games on Sunday? Maryland? Georgia Tech? Florida St.? Although it has been mentioned in the last week that the Selection Committee does not discuss the RPI, that is nearly impossible when you really think about it. Some of the factors that go into RPI include SOS, quality wins, road wins, overall record, etc. Are you telling me that the Committee does not consider ANY of these factors? That's what I thought. So the RPI is obviously taken into consideration. Maybe they dont talk about the exact RPI #, but that is irrelevant. Sorry I had to get that off my chest before I discussed the ACC and their 9 teams.  

Maryland- RPI 33, SOS 26, 4 wins vs RPI Top 50, Quality Wins- Clemson, Georgia Tech, Duke, and even throw in Michigan St. Record 18-7.

Georgia Tech- RPI 56, SOS 44, 6 wins vs RPI Top 50, Quality Wins-Memphis, Duke, Clemson, Florida St. Record 16-8.

Florida St.- RPI 29, SOS 13, 4 wins vs RPI Top 50, Quality Wins- Florida, Virginia Tech, Maryland, Duke. Record 16-8.

When you look at those 3 teams, in what order would you rank them? Maybe Georgia Tech is the weakest? You can't disregard those quality wins though. Maryland? Well, they beat Georgia Tech. Florida St.? No way, look at those #'s and wins. Want to compare them to some of the last teams out of my bracket? Ok, I thought so.

Georgia- RPI 43, SOS 11, 3 wins vs RPI Top 50, Quality Wins- Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Kentucky. Record 13-9.

Alabama- RPI 30, SOS 54, 2 wins vs RPI Top 50, Quality Wins- Xavier, Georgia, Record 18-6.

Louisville- RPI 73, SOS 45, 0 wins vs RPI Top 50, Quality Wins-Providence, Syracuse, Record 16-8.

Kansas St.- RPI 49, SOS 98, 1 wins vs RPI Top 50, Quality Wins- USC, Texas, Record 18-7.

As you can see, not one of these teams is more worthy than an above ACC team. You might bring up Duke, but as you know, they are still in the Tournament (for now).

Ok, on to the next topic. With that being said regarding Louisville, they finally got a big win last night by going into Pitt and roughing them up. That win will definitely help their case for getting in. I am not saying that puts them in, or out, but they definitely still have some more work to do to solidify a reservation.

How about the Broncos of Santa Clara??? They snapped Gonzaga's 50 game home winning streak last night that put them alone at the top of the West Coast Conference standings. Before last night they were tied, but Gonzaga owned the tie-breaker. Gonzaga is now on the outside looking in at the Big Dance. After losing Josh Heytvelt to those psychedlic mushrooms, the Zags appear to be in big trouble.

Here is my UPDATED NCAA Tournament field broken down by conference. Yes, I know I have 9 teams from the ACC in my current field. How do you deny any of the teams at this point? I will cover this in a future blog, possibly tomorrow.

  65 Teams

America East (1)

• Proj. Champ: Vermont

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

ACC (9)

• Proj. Champ: North Carolina

• At-Large: Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Florida St., Virginia, Georgia Tech

• Bubble: None

Atlantic Sun (1)

• Proj. Champ: East Tenn. St.

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

Atlantic 10 (1)

• Proj. Champ: Xavier

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

Big East (6)

• Proj. Champ: Pittsburgh

• At-Large: Marquette, Notre Dame, Villanova, Georgetown, West Virginia

• Bubble: Syracuse, Providence, Louisville

Big Sky (1)

• Proj. Champ:Montana

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

Big South (1)

• Proj. Champ:Winthrop

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

Big Ten (4)

• Proj. Champ:Wisconsin

• At-Large: Ohio St., Indiana, Illinois

• Bubble: Purdue, Michigan St.

• Big 12 (5)

• Proj. Champ: Kansas

• At-Large: Texas A& M, Oklahoma St., Texas, Texas Tech

• Bubble: Kansas St., Oklahoma

Big West (1)

• Proj. Champ: Long Beach St.

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

Colonial (1)

• Proj. Champ: Virginia Commonwealth

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: Old Dominion, Drexel

Conference USA (1)

• Proj. Champ: Memphis

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

Horizon (2)

• Proj. Champ: Wright St.

• At-Large: Butler

• Bubble: None

Ivy League (1)

• Proj. Champ: Penn

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

MAAC (1)

• Proj. Champ: Marist

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

MAC (1)

• Proj. Champ: Toledo

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

MEAC (1)

• Proj. Champ: Delaware St.

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

Mid-Continent (1)

• Proj. Champ: #### Roberts

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

Missouri Valley (3)

• Proj. Champ: Southern Illinois

• At-Large: Creighton, Missouri St.

• Bubble:  Bradley, Wichita St.

Mountain West (3)

• Proj. Champ: BYU

• At-Large: Air Force, UNLV

• Bubble: None

Northeast (1)

• Proj. Champ: Central Connecticut St.

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

Ohio Valley (1)

• Proj. Champ: Austin Peay

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

PAC-10 (6)

• Proj. Champ: UCLA

• At-Large: Oregon, Arizona, USC, Washington St., Stanford

• Bubble: Washington

Patriot (1)

• Proj. Champ: Holy Cross

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

SEC (5)

• Proj. Champ: Florida

• At-Large: Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Vanderbilt

        Bubble: Georgia,     Alabama, LSU

Southern (1)

• Proj. Champ: Davidson

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

Southland (1)

• Proj. Champ: Texas A&M Corpus Christi

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

Sun Belt (1)

• Proj. Champ: South Alabama

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

SWAC (1)

• Proj. Champ: Miss. Valley St.

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

WAC (1)

• Proj. Champ: Nevada

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: New Mexico St.

West Coast (1)

• Proj. Champ: Gonzaga

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

 

I have been doing my own bracket projections for over 10 years now and I have decided to start posting them here on a blog. I know there are other “bracketologies” out there but if you are looking for another opinion on where your team(s) stands take a look at my “bracketology”. It is just a hobby of mine, but I try to give each team as strong as consideration as possible. I update my projections after games through each Sunday. Normally, I begin making projections in early to mid January. I will continue to post them each week and feel free to leave me some feedback. Tell me why I am crazy for leaving teams out, where I have teams seeded, or why I have certain teams in the field of 65. Or if you have any questions I would love to answer them. I base my projections using as close to the NCAA Selection Committee’s process as possible. Factoring into these projections are a combination of RPI, SOS, W/L Record, W/L vs RPI Top 50, conference strength, road/neutral court W/L, last 10 games, quality wins, and bad losses. Below is my bracket through games of Sunday, February 11th.

West

• (1) UCLA

• (16) Montana

• (8) Villanova 

• (9) Florida St.

• (5) Nevada

• (12) Illinois

• (4) Butler

• (13) Vermont

• (6) Virginia

• (11) Texas Tech

• (3) Memphis

• (14) South Alabama

• (7) Tennessee

• (10) Missouri St.

• (2) Kansas

• (15) Toledo

 

Midwest

• (1) Wisconsin

• (16) Delaware St.

• (8) West Virginia

• (9) Texas

• (5) Air Force

• (12) Georgia Tech

• (4) Kentucky

• (13) Holy Cross

• (6) USC

• (11) Maryland

• (3) Marquette

• (14) #### Roberts

• (7) Arizona

• (10) Gonzaga

• (2) Texas A&M

• (15) E. Tennessee St.

South

• (1) Florida

• (16) PLAY IN

• (8) Stanford

• (9) Creighton

• (5) Boston College

• (12) VCU

• (4) Indiana

• (13) Wright St.

• (6) UNLV

• (11) Notre Dame

• (3) Washington St.

• (14) Long Beach St.

• (7) Duke

• (10) BYU

• (2) Pittsburgh

• (15) Penn

East

• (1) North Carolina

• (16) Austin Peay

• (8) Oklahoma St.

• (9) Vanderbilt

• (5) Georgetown

• (12) Davidson

• (4) Southern Illinois

• (13) Winthrop

• (6) Virginia Tech

• (11) Arkansas

• (3) Oregon

• (14) Texas A&M CC

• (7) Clemson

• (10) Xavier

• (2) Ohio St.
• (15) Marist

Last 4 In

• Illinois

• Georgia Tech

• Texas Tech

• Arkansas

Bubble

• Georgia  

• Purdue

• Alabama

• Kansas St.

• Michigan St.

• Drexel

• Providence

• Syracuse

• Washington

• Oklahoma

• Wichita St.

• Bradley

• Louisville

• Old Dominion

 

For those of you who love this stuff, meaning Bracketology, there is some good reading out there today. Pat Forde and Andy Katz of ESPN have articles on dot-com giving insight on the selection process. Along with 18 other sportswriters across the nation, they were given a shot to go through the "selection process" and come up with a mock draft. To sum things up, they compacted 5 days of breaking down teams into a 24 hour period. Check out the bracket they came up with. Some of the teams they have in the field, (Evansville, and Houston among a couple of others) will be longshots to actually make the tournament. In their selection, they were thrown some curveballs to show what the actual committee might have to deal with come selection time. For example, Houston beating Memphis to win the Conference USA tournament. This then eliminates an at-large bid that now goes to a team already in the field. Some other things that jumped out were how low they had Georgetown (10 seed), how high they had USC (4 seed), and New Mexico St. (11 seed). As of Monday, I had Georgetown a 7, USC a 6, and New Mexico St. on my bubble. Georgetown has done nothing this week to hurt their seed after beating Louisville in Freedom Hall. USC pretty much has kept their position in my bracket for now after losing a heartbreaker the other night to their cross town rivals UCLA. Reggie Theus and Crew are sliding further down the bubble after losing this week to Utah St. Of course every Bracketology you see, there are going to be some differences. The articles also discuss how the # of teams from a certain conference who get in the Big Dance is irrelevant. The topic is not even brought up through the process until the last stage of seeding the teams. I try and go by the same logic when I make my projections. It should be about the teams, not about the conferences.

There is an article on Yahoo today regarding how meaningless the W/L in the last 10 games is to the selection criteria. The reasoning is because if a team plays a brutal schedule down the stretch like Michigan St. does, they are at a huge disadvantage when compared to a team like New Mexico St. While I agree with this to an extent, you have to look at the whole picture. Tom Izzo is quoted in this article in opposition to this being a component  the selection committee looks at. Well Tom, if your Spartans hadn't lost games they should have won, the rough finish to your schedule would not look so bad. The entire body of work is what the committee looks at in the end. The "last 10 games" is just a small component. Win games you should win in the middle of the season, you won't be haunted by losing tough games at the end of the season.

One last thing I wanted to cover today is the Colonial Athletic Conference. As of Monday I had only one team from the Colonial in my projected field(projected Champ Virginia Commonwealth). Hofstra, Old Dominion, and Drexel all have legitimate claims to be in the field. The mock bracket I discussed at the beginning of this blog has only one team in the field as well (Hofstra). I'm not sure how they came up with Hofstra, since VCU is the projected champ right now at 21-4, and 13-1 in conference. In other mock brackets I have seen these teams are sometimes in, sometimes completely out, and sometimes on the bubble. Last year the Colonial had a strong showing in the Big Dance, however, the committee does not take anything into consideration that does not have to do with THIS SEASON. When you compare other bubble teams to the Colonial teams, the facts just don't add up in their favor. Let's look at some factors:

Hofstra- RPI 77, SOS 160, RPI Top 50 wins 2 (Both in conference)

Drexel- RPI 47, SOS 103, RPI Top 50 wins 1

Old Dominion- RPI 62, SOS 116, RPI Top 50 wins 3

While these are just some of the factors when going through the selection process, it gives an insight on some that are working against these Colonial teams, and other small conference teams. The SOS is the big one. Drexel has the best RPI, but only 1 win over an RPI top 50 team (at Villanova which is a good win). And they are currently 10-4 in conference which is good for 4th place right now. Old Dominion won at Georgetown, beat Drexel twice, but is still a longshot because of weak other #'s including a possible 3rd place finish in conference. Hofstra has the worst RPI, worst SOS, and has 2 wins vs RPI top 50 teams (VCU, and a split with Drexel). No big non-conference wins. I do think the Colonial could possibly get 1 at large bid, but anything more than that is a longshot. Though the right question would be, WHO would be the at large team??

This weekend should be fun, and of course will give us more insight into who is in, and who is out. I have started working on my new projections that I will finish at some point on Monday (but may not post until Tuesday morning). Of course, this weekend could make things even more cloudy, if that is at all possible.

Last night provided some insight on some of our bubble teams. First, Michigan St. got absolutely hammered at Purdue. The 26-26 halftime score soon turned into a blowout. The Spartans managed just 12 points in the 2nd half while Purdue lit it up from all over the floor. An acquaintance of mine was at this game and he told me Izzo was sitting the ENTIRE 2nd half. Sounds like he knows what is ahead of him. Can you say N.I.T.? I'm not sticking a fork in State just yet but they are in BIG TIME trouble. They still have Wisconsin and Michigan twice, and both Iowa and Indiana at home. Purdue meanwhile kept their hopes alive with a win they had to have. They have the Buckeyes in Columbus this weekend, and are home against Indiana next week. If they at least get a split, they will still be alive.

Louisville had a chance to get a marquee win but lost at home against Georgetown. I have had my doubts about the Hoyas, but they just keep on winning. Clemson kept their spot in the field with a win over Florida St. West Virginia had a chance to enter my field of 65 but lost on their home floor to a more talented Pitt team. They will get another chance when UCLA comes calling to Morgantown this weekend. Speaking of the Bruins, they got all they could handle from USC last night. The Trojans look like they are for real.

I saw most of the UNC at Duke game and was really impressed with Tarheel youngsters Ty Lawson and Brandan Wright. That drive Lawson had at the end of the game was unbelievable. Like I discussed in my last blog, Duke has a really rough stretch ahead. It is not a sure thing they will finish over .500 in the ACC.

 

There was one team in particular last night who hurt their chances of hearing their name called on Selection Sunday. Texas Tech lost at home to Nebraska on a last second three-pointer by the Cornhuskers. If you want to be in the NCAA Tournament, you do not lose a game like that, especially on your home floor. The Red Raiders have now lost 4 straight games, 3 of those to teams with RPI's over 80. WIth road games at Oklahoma St., and at Texas A&M looming, Bobby and his Boys could be in serious trouble. While their SOS (11), and quality wins at home vs Kansas and Texas A&M, and winning on the road at K-State certainly help, they could be making NIT reservations if they don't at least get a split in their next two games.

Tonight has some HUGE games on tap for teams hoping to get off the bubble, and for teams looking to solidify their position in the field. First, West Virginia has Pitt at home tonight, and UCLA at home on Saturday. They absolutely have to win one of these games to get back into the field. I currently have them as the last team out but a win in one of these games would get them back in. At 17-4, your first thought would be "how can they not be in?" The Mountaineers have a SOS of 127, and a non-conference RPI of 298, (yes 298!) With only one win against an RPI top 50 team (Villanova), they need to add some quaility wins. While I do think West Virginia will get in the Big Dance, they have a tough schedule ahead of them even after the two big home games this week. They then go to Georgetown, and still have Pitt and Providence left on the road.

Staying in the Big East, Louisville can really help their resume if they can get a win tonight at home vs Georgetown. Like West Virginia, Louisville needs a couple of good wins. They have beaten decent teams in Providence, Syracuse, and Depaul. However, nothing really stands out. Again, they only have 1 win vs an RPI top 50 team and only 3 road wins. With games remaining vs Georgetown, Pitt, and Marquette, they definitely control their own destiny.

In the ACC, Florida St at Clemson is a huge game, especially for the Tigers.  After starting the year 17-0, Clemson has lost 5 of their last 6 (including getting homered at Duke, but then again who doesnt?). At this time of the year, home games are must wins for teams who are on, or barely off the bubble. Florida St. has been a rising team so this game is not a must win for them, but it would only solidify their spot in the field. North Carolina at Duke is a big game only because of who the teams are. While both teams will be in the tournament, Duke is starting to see their seed slide. With 5 road games left on the schedule, (yes they do, can you believe it?) including games at Maryland, Boston College, Clemson, and North Carolina, getting a win at home vs their hated rivals would help their chances at a 4-seed or better.

 Michigan St. goes to Purdue in an important Big Ten game. WIth both teams at 4-5 in the conference, this could go down as a turning point game for both teams. Purdue is horrible on the road (just snapped a 29 game road losing streak!) so this home game, as well as Indiana at home next week are must-wins. Michigan St. is seeing their seed drop...fast. This is a game that could get them back on track.

Other games tonight to keep your eye on which have Bracket implications are Bradley at Southern Illinois, Kansas St. at Kansas, and Florida at Georgia. Bradley and Georgia are both on my bubble so getting big-time wins tonight (which are both unlikely) would be huge.

 **To view my latest NCAA Tournament-Bracket Projection, please read the rest of my blog**

Here is a breakdown of the teams by conference in my NCAA bracket projection. Again, these projections are through games of Sunday, February 4th.

65 Teams

• America East(1)

• Proj. Champ: Vermont

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

• ACC (8)

• Proj. Champ: North Carolina

• At-Large: Duke, Maryland, Clemson,  Virginia Tech, Boston College, Florida St., Virginia

• Bubble: Georgia Tech

• Atlantic Sun (1)

• Proj. Champ: East Tenn. St.

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

• Atlantic 10 (1)

• Proj. Champ: Rhode Island

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

• Big East (5)

• Proj. Champ: Pittsburgh

• At-Large: Marquette, Notre Dame, Villanova, Georgetown

• Bubble: West Virginia, Syracuse, Providence, Louisville

• Big Sky (1)

• Proj. Champ:Weber St.

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

• Big South (1)

• Proj. Champ:Winthrop

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

• Big Ten (5)

• Proj. Champ:Wisconsin

• At-Large: Ohio St., Indiana, Michigan St., Illinois

• Bubble: Purdue, Michigan

• Big 12 (6)

• Proj. Champ: Kansas

• At-Large: Texas A& M, Oklahoma St., Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas St.

• Bubble: None

• Big West (1)

• Proj. Champ: Long Beach St.

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

• Colonial (1)

• Proj. Champ: Virginia Commonwealth

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: Old Dominion, Drexel

• Conference USA (1)

• Proj. Champ: Memphis

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

• Horizon (1)

• Proj. Champ: Butler

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

• Ivy League (1)

• Proj. Champ: Yale

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

• MAAC (1)

• Proj. Champ: Loyola, MD

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

• MAC (1)

• Proj. Champ: Akron

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

• MEAC (1)

• Proj. Champ: Delaware St.

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

• Mid-Continent (1)

• Proj. Champ: #### Roberts

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

• Missouri Valley (3)

• Proj. Champ: Southern Illinois

• At-Large: Creighton, Missouri St.

• Bubble:  Northern Iowa, Bradley, Wichita St.

• Mountain West (3)

• Proj. Champ: Air Force

• At-Large: UNLV, BYU

• Bubble: None

• Northeast (1)

• Proj. Champ: Central Connecticut St.

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

• Ohio Valley (1)

• Proj. Champ: Austin Peay

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

• PAC-10 (6)

• Proj. Champ: UCLA

• At-Large: Oregon, Arizona, USC, Washington St., Stanford

• Bubble:  None

• Patriot (1)

• Proj. Champ: Holy Cross

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

• SEC (6)

• Proj. Champ: Florida

• At-Large: Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Vanderbilt

• Bubble: Georgia

• Southern (1)

• Proj. Champ: Davidson

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

• Southland (1)

• Proj. Champ: Texas A&M Corpus Christi

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

• Sun Belt (1)

• Proj. Champ: South Alabama

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

• SWAC (1)

• Proj. Champ: Jackson St.

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

• WAC (1)

• Proj. Champ: Nevada

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: New Mexico St., Utah St.

• West Coast (1)

• Proj. Champ: Gonzaga

• At-Large: None

• Bubble: None

 

I have been doing my own bracket projections for over 10 years now and I have decided to start posting them here on a blog. I know there are other “bracketologies” out there but if you are looking for another opinion on where your team(s) stands take a look at my “bracketology”. It is just a hobby of mine, but I try to give each team as strong as consideration as possible. I update my projections after games through each Sunday. Normally, I begin making projections in early to mid January. This season, this is my 3rd set of projections but the first I have posted. I will continue to post them each week and feel free to leave me some feedback. Tell me why I am crazy for leaving teams out, where I have teams seeded, or why I have certain teams in the field of 65. Or if you have any questions I would love to answer them. I base my projections using as close to the NCAA Selection Committee’s process as possible. Factoring into these projections are RPI, SOS, W/L Record, W/L vs RPI Top 50, conference strength, road/neutral court W/L, last 10 games, quality wins, and bad losses. Below is my bracket through games of Sunday, February 4th.

West

• (1) UCLA

• (16) Delaware St.

• (8) Clemson
• (9) Tennessee

• (5) Southern Illinois

• (12) Kansas St.

• (4) Air Force

• (13) Winthrop

• (6) Boston College

• (11) BYU

• (3) Memphis

• (14) South Alabama

• (7) Virginia

• (10) Michigan St.

• (2) Texas A&M

• (15) Loyola, MD

• Midwest

• (1) Wisconsin

• (16) Yale

• (8) Gonzaga

• (9) Villanova

• (5) Kentucky

• (12) Davidson

• (4) Duke

• (13) Rhode Island

• (6) Virginia Tech

• (11) Alabama

• (3) Oregon

• (14) #### Roberts

• (7) Georgetown

• (10) Texas

• (2) Pittsburgh

• (15) Vermont

• South

• (1) Florida

• (16) PLAY IN

• (8) Notre Dame

• (9) Arizona

• (5) Oklahoma St.

• (12) Illinois

• (4) Washington St.

• (13) Akron

• (6) USC

• (11) Arkansas

• (3) Butler

• (14) Texas A&M CC

• (7) UNLV

• (10) Maryland

• (2) Ohio St.

• (15) Weber St.

• East

• (1) North Carolina

• (16) Austin Peay

• (8) Vanderbilt

• (9) Texas Tech

• (5) Indiana

• (12) Virginia Commonwealth

• (4) Nevada

• (13) Holy Cross

• (6) Stanford

• (11) Missouri St.

• (3) Kansas

• (14) Long Beach St.

• (7) Florida St.

• (10) Creighton

• (2) Marquette

• (15) E. Tennessee St.

Last 4 In

• Kansas St.

• Illinois

• Arkansas

• Alabama

Bubble

• West Virginia
• Syracuse
• Georgia Tech
• New Mexico St.
• Georgia  
• Drexel
• Providence
• Louisville
• Bradley