Ramblings From a Desert Sun
by: Dalamar
Mid Season NBA Report - My Playoff Picks:
Feb 07, 2008 | 11:14PM | report this

I'll go out on a semi-limb here, and say that the rest of this season and especially next season, will bring us some of the best playoff series NBA fans have seen in quite some time.

The reasons for this are the various trades and moves that have taken place this season, from the Celtics to the Lakers, and most recently the Suns, all the "experts" who predicted few, if any, big trades this year are now scrambling to cover their tracks.  So let's take a peek at what we have to look forward to (and bear in mind that in my opinion, there's going to be one, possibly two more trades before the deadline as a result of the recent swaps)

EASTERN CONFERENCE - My picks (and their spots) for the playoffs:

1.  Boston - Do I really need to justify?

2. Detroit - No brainer here, though do not be surprised if they have a 2nd half slump and come up 3rd, if I were the Pistons, I would want the Celtics in the 2nd round, and potentially get a weaker opponent in the conference finals.

3. Cleveland - They are always a better 2nd half team, so I think they will move up to third, or if the Pistons position themselves for an earlier run at the Celtics, then look for them in 2nd.

4. Toronto - These guys are playing some lights out basketball against the teams they should beat, they just have to get over the hump against the top teams.  Look for a run from them to get 1st round home court advantage.

5. Orlando - They have the talent to wind up a higher seed but really don't have the chemistry or experience as a unit yet, so I look for a 2nd half slump to drop them a bit in the standings.  They are a 1st round upset team though, especially with their half court sets and against a Toronto team with a tendency to take plays off from time to time. 

6. New Jersey - If they don't deal Jason Kidd, look for him to go on an absolute tear to increase his trade value in the off season, and Vince Carter to show a bit of fire again.  They're a first round exit waiting to happen, but I look for a strong 2nd half from them.  The last team they would want to meet is either the Cavs or Pistons, either of whom will sweep the Nets in the first round.

7. Washington - If the injury bug doesn't rip them apart again, they should hold on to a playoff spot, it's a tossup for this slot and the 6 slot between the Nets and Wizards, but I think the Kidd factor will give the Nets a better record.  Look for a first round sweep against the Pistons, however.

8. Atlanta - The final slot is a COMPLETE tossup with a lot of teams, but I think this year is the Hawk's year.  Look for a 6 game series with Boston in the first round and a Hawks loss, but this is a team that is one or two players from being a younger version of the Celtics.

Dark Horse Candidate:  Miami Heat's record will wind up being 26-56, and the Pacers will miss the #8 seed on the last night of the season.  The rest will end up rebuilding for next year.

WESTERN CONFERENCE - My picks (and their spots) for the playoffs:

1. Phoenix - I picked them to finish the the #1 seed at the start of season, and I see no reason to change that opinion now.  They picked up a player with a proven track record in Shaq, and kept the key portions of their Speedy Gonzales offense.  It will be a battle, but I think they will hold the top slot by 1 or 2 games over...

2. Los Angeles Lakers - It's no secret I am no Kobe Bryant fan.  That said I give the devil his due, he has changed his game this season and his team is better for it.  Add in Gasol and you have a front line that if I were San Antonio would have me worried.  Look for them to have the best record in the west during the 2nd half

3. San Antonio - Love them or hate them, the Spurs are THE best 2nd half team of the last decade, they always play so-so ball before the break, then turn on the jets and get in to their rhythm before the playoffs.  I don't see them changing that pattern this year, and Popovich basically works this team HARD to get the home court for at least the first round, the later rounds do not matter as much to him.

4. Dallas - Who can figure this team out anyways?  One minute they are world beaters the next they are this side of tissue paper.  They seem to be playing the season with the same expression they had when they left the court after the Golden State debacle, stunned disbelief.  I have seen NO fire from this team, but their talent alone will bring them to a first round home court advantage.

5. Utah - Carlos Boozer's nickname should be Manimal.  That guy's awesome when his game is on.  Jerry Sloan's teams are ALWAYS a threat, and getting to the conference finals last year has only made them hungry (well, mostly - HELLO KIRELENKO!!).  Look for a Dallas/Utah first round series that will go 7 games and end with another first round exit for the Mavs.

6. Denver - The Nuggets have probably the 2nd toughest schedule of the 2nd half of the western conference teams.  They have to face all of the top teams in the east and west with only about 20% of their games against sub 500 teams.  The Nuggets are a damn good team, but they aren't that good.  Look for a worn out Nuggets team to face a fresh Spurs team in a tough 5 game series that the Spurs will win.

7. New Orleans - These guys have been proving just how valuable Byron Scott is as a coach, the man has won everywhere he's coached, and he's doing it now without a real "top tier" superstar.  But overachieving will only get you so far, especially when you look at their 2nd half schedule, which seems to me to be even worse than the Nuggets.  I would love to be wrong on this one, I actually like what the Hornets are doing this year, but I don't think they will hold up under the pressure.  However the Lakers/Hornets in a first round series?  HOOOOO MAMA!  This one's the sleeper series of the first round, and I'm going to pick the Lakers in 7, but JUST barely, and only due to Kobe's playoff experience vs the Hornet's lack of same (don't be surprised if the Hornets pull off the upset, though!)

8. Golden State - If I were the Suns this is the team I would want to face in the first round, and in all honesty I think this could be the highest average scoring first round series ever.  I think the Warriors are better than most people credit them being, they take a lot of 3's, run and gun better than anyone BUT the Suns, but the key is their toughness, because when they lock down on a team, they can shut down nearly anyone.  Don't let the record fool you, and by playoff time Chris Weber will be a much better defender than he is now.  Look for a solid 6 game series with the Suns winning.

DARK HORSE:  Watch out for the Rockets and Portland, either team is just waiting for a good series of teams to play to get on a hot streak.  I think both teams will come up JUST shy of the #8 seed, but I would have no problem with either team getting it. 

Well, there it is, there's my picks and reasons for em.  Guess we'll find out how smart I am later this year huh ? LOL :)

Thanks everyone for reading!

9 Comments | Add a comment   categories: NBA, NBA Playoffs
 
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ea7777
Feb 7, 2008
11:56 PM
Hum--very good. Like your picks but not that order.

1. Suns vrs 8. Warrors Suns 4-1
2. Hornets vrs 7. Nuggets Hornets 4-3
3. Lakers vrs 6. Jazz Lakers 4-2
4. Spurs vrs 5. Dallas Spurs 4-2

Suns vrs Spurs Suns 4-3
Lakers vrs Hornets Lakers 4-3

Suns vrs Lakers Suns 4-3

Suns vrs Boston Suns 4-3

fadeawadejumper
Feb 8, 2008
5:53 AM
A Division winner cannot be lower than 4th. They did change it so that ONE second place team can be higher than a division winner to prevent what happened in '05'06 with the Mavs and Spurs. So the Magic would have to be the 4 seed, even if the Raptors finish with a better record.

Hoffman
Feb 8, 2008
9:30 AM
Good blog Dalamar.

I don't know if the Lakers will leapfrog San Antonio but it's a 5 team race to the title.

The Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Jazz, and Celtics are contenders.

The rest don't have a prayer.

Now, Cleveland or Detroit may pull a shocker and creep into the Finals but neither of those teams have a shot at beating the Western Conference elite.

It's all about matchups.

aorr11
Feb 8, 2008
12:51 PM
very nice write up!

bamaboy22
Feb 8, 2008
1:24 PM
Looks pretty solid, as long as injuries don't kill the hornets. Hard to argue with you though. Chicago isn't playing too well right now (despite last nights victory over Golden state) but if Deng can return healthy than they could push for an 8 seed and be a problem for the C's.

Dalamar
Feb 8, 2008
9:35 PM
Appreciate the replies. I'll be very interested in how accurate this proves to be at the end of the season. My plan is to revisit this post before once the playoff seedings are set, and then pick out my road to the title.

I do have to disagree with Hoff on one point though, I do think the Pistons have a chance to slip in to the finals, especially if they get the Celtics in the 2nd round and win, which would give them a MUCH weaker finals opponent, and give them time to rest their starters (so to speak) for a Final's run. If they draw the Spurs, it's a tossup, if they draw any other team, I don't think they can win.

Thanks again all! :)

PF
Feb 8, 2008
10:32 PM
I think the Rockets will end up as the eighth seed, but the Blazers have been terrible lately, and the playoffs seem like a pipe dream. Maybe next year.

The Spurs are still the team to beat, until proven otherwise.

Tsunami
Feb 9, 2008
8:48 PM
I think the Rockets might climb a little higher than you predict. Your Eastern Conference picks look solid and your write ups are well done. Nice post!
-Tsu

Tsunami
Feb 9, 2008
8:51 PM
The Spurs, Suns, Lakers, Jazz, and Celtics are contenders.

The rest don't have a prayer.


Silly Hoffman. Detroit, Cleveland, Denver, Houston, and New Orleans have AS MUCH OF A PRAYER as the Lakers - homer. Let's not take a team that hasn't won a playoff series in a few years and catapult them into NBA Finals territory after watching 3 games with Pau Gasol - even if he IS tearing it up.

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ABOUT ME


Dalamar
I am a big basketball fan, tho I admit I prefer the NBA to college, mainly because the NCAA has even more stupid rules than the NBA does. I enjoy other sports as well, tho I do admit I prefer the playoffs than the regular season for most sports other than the NBA. My favorite teams in the NBA ? 1. Phoenix Suns 2. Dallas Mavericks 3. Chicago Bulls 4. Indiana Pacers 5. Los Angeles Lakers (Tho I can't STAND Kobe)
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