Pretenders and Contenders.  4 weeks into the 2008 season and already, there are some trends that can be picked out.  The Rams are going to have the first overall pick in the 09 draft.  The Lions will have the second or third.  The Giants are looking like monsters, and are headed for another post-season run.  The Patriots aren't a team that works together, they are a team Tom Brady makes better.  Al Davis is senile.  Things are becoming clearer as the weeks go past, including what teams with good starts are going to keep that momentum going, and what teams are going to nosedive back into mediocrity.  I've chosen to focus on one team that is a contender and two that are pretenders.  

 

Contenders are perennial favorites to win their division and perhaps the Super Bowl.  The Colts, the Patriots, the Chargers, and the Steelers all come to mind when thinking of teams that are contenders.  Same teams year after year, some get better, some get worse and sometimes a team comes along that has the right set of people, the right chemistry and the right amount of luck to shock everyone.  The Buffalo Bills are that team this year.  Who would have imagined that a team that was under .500 for the past 5 years would bust out of the gates like they have?  

 

The Bills Quaterback      Trent Edwards has matured in his second season, posting a 65.5% pass completion rating with an average of 7.82 yards per throw.  The pass completions alone put him 5th in the NFL at this point in the year behind guys like Drew Brees and Brett Favre.  Not bad company to me.  Edwards has thrown 4 TDs and 2 INTs and has an overall QB rating of 93.5.  This kid is great.   

 

 

Offense  

 

The running game still leaves a little to be desired with Marshawn #### only averaging 3.5 yards per carry but still getting in the end zone 4 times.  Lee Evans is doing pretty well for himself with 332 total yards receiving this year and a 23.7 yards per catch average.  Josh Reed is just under 200 yards for the year with an 11.3 ypc average.   The offense needs to work a little harder, get a big lead and then burn the clock.  Of course, that is true for all teams but Buffalo has not been doing it so far.  They trailed the Raiders and needed some nice plays to get that win.  Edwards should have dominated the Rams defense and just didn't.  This offense looks like it has some amazing potential and I think that it will be realized as the season progresses.   

 

Defense 

     The defense is what concerns me and looks like it might not make it through the whole season.  The D has only posted 10 sacks, 3 interceptions and 4 forced fumbles.  They need to pick up the pace and get in on the opposing quarterback more often, more hurries equals more picks.  I think the Bills have an excellent chance of making the playoffs this year and one thing makes me believe it more than any other.  Their schedule.   

 

Schedule  

 

The Bills play Arizona, Miami twice, the Browns, the Chiefs, the 49ers, the Broncos (who are going to collapse very soon), the Patriots twice, and the Jets twice.  There are 5 games there that are almost guaranteed Buffalo wins, and I think they will pull off 2-3 more than that.  That's right.  The Bills are going 12-4.  At least.  Next year we can see how well they fair against the Brady lead Patriots, and whether or not they will be contenders for years to come.  

 

Pretenders are teams that for the most part have been "rebuilding" for the past 10 years and finally have that great start to the season that makes it look as if all that pain and suffering has paid off.  The Detroit Lions were the great Pretenders of the 2007 season, starting off 6 and 2, shocking everybody in the sports world, and then went back to true form finishing off 1-7.  The Falcons had the honor in the 2006 season starting out 3-1 headed into week 5 only to finish 7-9.  This year there are several teams that can fall under the Pretenders title and sadly, the Falcons are one of them.

 

 

 The Falcons  

 

The Falcons are 2-2 going into this next week, where they will drop a game to Green Bay.  The fans of Atlanta had reason to celebrate after watching their rookie QB Matt Ryan and the newly signed Michael Turner shred the Detroit defense for nearly 500 yards.  What the poor people in the ATL forgot about that fact that it was the Lions the Falcons were playing.  Everybody looks good against the Lions.  The Rams could come to Ford field and win easily. 

 

 

Quarterback  

 

Matt Ryan has thrown for 669 yards this season with 2 INTs and 1 fumble.  Not bad stats until the individual game stats are looked at, and then a trend appears.  Ryan can’t play against a solid defense.  He beat up on the Lions and Chiefs but was held to limited yards against Tampa Bay and Carolina.  Ryan’s completion percentage is 52%, and his passer rating is 70.7.  That is not a good thing, more like a T-Jack thing. 

 

 

Offense  

 

                Michael Turner has the same trends as Matt Ryan.  220 yards and 2 touchdowns his first game as a Falcon, which made him look a stud and the Falcons looks like geniuses for signing him.  Since then he has just 200 yards in three games.  Turner can’t burn through the stronger defenses of the league like he could through the Lions.  Roddy White is having a pretty good year, especially when you consider how under used he was with Vick and Harrington but he is the only weapon Ryan really has.  Letting Alge Crumpler go was a big mistake for Atlanta because he was a proven top ten TE.  The Falcons are thin in the receiving corps and need to add some decent free agents in the next few years.  The offensive line is doing ok, only allowing Ryan to be sacked 7 times.  

 

Defense  

 

                The defense is sad with seven sacks, 3 forced fumbles, and 4 interceptions.  One player account for 6 of the 7 sacks and three of those came against the weakest offensive line in football.  This defense has nothing going for it except the fact that they have Lawyer Milloy, which is pretty much saying they have this guy who used to be great.  He is the only name on the D-side that anyone can easily recall hearing before.   

 

Schedule  

 

They face Chicago, Philly, New Orleans, Carolina, San Diego, and Tampa over the course of the rest of the season.  These teams have the power to stop the run and put pressure on Ryan.  Ryan is not experienced enough to face these teams and get past the defensive pressure.  Turner cannot run through holes when Chicago is stacking the box.  Atlanta is going to go 5-11 for the year, and that is if they can beat Oakland, Miami, and St. Louis.  Give this team time to grow and another year or two of good drafts and they will be making some serious waves, but for this year, the Falcons are Pretenders.  

 

 The 49ers  

 

Another team that leaps to mind this year when thinking of pretenders is the San Francisco 49ers.  The Niners are 2-2 headed into next week and have a slim chance of beating the Patriots.  J.T. O'Sullivan looks like a hero in the eyes of 49ers fans everywhere, stepping up and replacing Alex Smith and leading the team to 2 wins which if you listen to the fans, should be three.  Apparently, the 49ers got jobbed in the Cardinals game.   

 

Quarterback  

 

O'Sullivan has played much better than Smith could have, although I give some credit to the fact that he already knew the Martz system coming in.  O'Sullivan looked really O.K. against Detroit, and looked alright against Seattle, but other than that, he hasn't impressed.  The poor kid has thrown 3 INTs, lost one fumble and has been sacked 19(!!!) times.  This guy spends more time on his back than Jenna Jameson.  I know the sacks aren't entirely his fault, the line must take most of the blame here, but come on does O'Sullivan even try to scramble?  Maybe even just toss the ball somewhere near someone in red and gold.  The four touchdowns he has thrown for and the pretty respectable yards per attempt are far outweighed by the amount of times he has turned the ball over.  Be afraid San Francisco, O'Sullivan played behind Kitna in Detroit, and looking at his stats I think he learned a little too well from the master.   

 

Offense  

 

A shining spot on the 49ers offense is Frank Gore.  Gore has 369 yards, 3 touchdowns and a nice 4.9 yards per carry average and 154 yards receiving.  It looks as though Gore is going to fulfill the hype of last season which is phenomenal to me.  The wide receivers of the 49ers are not looking too hot this year.  Isaac Bruce leads the team with 226 yards so far, which puts him behind Chicago’s' Brandon Lloyd and Denver’s' Eddie Royal (who by the way is second on his team behind Brandon Marshall).  Arnaz Battle is close behind with 202.  For perspective, Brandon Marshall has 398 receiving yards alone, where the Niners top two WRs have 428 total.   

 

Defense  

 

The defense is doing the same thing the offense is, bringing their A game to weak teams and not stepping up when playing contenders.  The only time the defense really shut a team down was against Detroit.  Even the win against Seattle took overtime.   

 

Schedule  

 

This team faces the Eagles, Giants, Seahawks, Cowboys, Bills, Jets and Redskins which will give them 9 losses at least.  I see the Cardinals knocking them off again as well.  The 49ers will finish 6-10.  This team needs to keep working on adding quality players.  J.T. O'sullivan is not Aaron Rodgers, Isaac Bruce is nearly done, Arnaz Battle has not been anywhere near the player people thought he would be, and Willis can't do it alone.  Give the 49ers a couple more years and they may take the West.

 

 

 

Ah yes a slightly (haha) better conference than the NFC North.  This is a harder group to predict I think.  Well except for the last place team but still. 

New Orleans Saints 11-5

The Saints have enough offensive weapons to win the division easily.  Drew Brees is a great QB and he has several targets to throw to now.  Colston is awesome, though he does tend to have serious ups and downs week to week.  The RB situation is odd, every fan in football is waiting for Reggie Bush to mature into an every down back, but between him and McAllister and whoever else is around they should do well.  The defense is ok, and I expect some good things from them.  If Smith can sack the QB the way he is getting overpaid to do then it will be all good.  Also the D needs to force more turnovers, and use them to score more often.  NO takes the division.

Carolina Panthers 10-6

Carolina is going to go into week 17 looking to knock off the Saints to win the division but NO is going to take it.  Now that Jake Delhomme is back the Panthers should have  a much better time then last year.  Even if he isn't 100% he will still be better than the crew that was tossing the ball last year.  On that note, Steve Smith should be huge this year.  Look at what he did last year with the quarterbacks he had.  Add in Williams and Stewart with a fairly decent rushing attack and they are going to score often.  The defense is going to have a field day with some of the teams they are going to play.  Detroit, the Raiders, Atlanta, and the Bears are going to hand over the ball easily so I expect a good amouth of turnovers from this defense.  10-6 should nab the Panthers a wild card spot.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-8

Tampa has a medium tough schedule, with weeks 4 through 8 looking ugly.  This team just doesn't look great this year.  They will get some easy wins playing ATL, Detroit, and Chicago, and I'm sure they will tough out some wins during the season but a .500 season is all they can hope for.  The fact that they have no idea who is going to start QB this year is an issue, they don't have a real deep recieving group, and the running backs are injury prone.  Dunn might be looking to make a statement this year, but he won't do too much.  The defense is the high point of this team and should continue to take the ball away, but without some solid offense it won't matter.  The defense also needs to put more pressure on the QB, 33 sacks for the whole team last year isn't super.

Atlanta Falcons 3-13

I hate to say it Falcons fans but they are headed down the Miami trail.  I think 3 wins is generous.  They have a rookie at QB who has yet to play a down and is going to be expected to carry the team.  Joe Horn and Roddy White are the 2 best receivers on the team, and they wouldn't start on most other teams in the league.  They let Alge Crumpler walk away and didn't exactly fill the opening with a superstar.  Michael Turner is going to starting for a whole season, and who knows how he will pull it off without LT to soften up the defense.  Norwood has played backup his whole career and with the loss of Dunn thought he was going to get a chance to start, so Turner is going to crush that dream.  Together I see them running as many yards as LT alone.  The defense is full of holes and has no one on it that stands out.  They aren't great pass rushers, nor do they stuff the run.  The only half good thing about the defense is playing in Oakland now. 

So there is the NFC South, tough on the teams but accurate I think.