What’s the over under on David Garrard turning back into the pumpkin that couldn’t win a starting job (for how many seasons)? I’m betting 4 games until it happens and 9 games until the PC avengers admit it. No question, Garrard had a dream season last year, but really now. Funny how talking heads were still calling Tom Brady a game manager after he’d won three SB’s, but they heap praise on a one year wonder with the best 1-2 running punch in the NFL. Now that Jax is missing two guards, MJD is starting slow and Fred Taylor seems to be coping with some issues, we saw what happens when Garrard has to win games by himself. He doesn’t.

One can’t help but feel for Tom Brady, and despise Bill Belichick.  Brady’s never been a bruiser, and I had long sensed he was due for a big hurt. Still, no one wants to see a player hurt. I don’t know if Belichick’s arrogance is tolerable anymore, though. It’s not the “life goes on” act he sells to the press that gets me. It’s the disservice he does to the fans by not looking for some insurance at the QB spot.  Sure Belichick wants to prove that he’s the reason NE has flourished, and to a large degree he is. But how many big winners (see Shula, D, and Noll, C.) floundered for a decade or so after they lost their hall of famers?

Yeah, Broadway Brett’s Jets beat the fish. So? Only the Dolphins lose on a Hail Mary. Besides, am I the only one who’s willing to admit that Pennington’s arm is made of balsa wood and chewing gum?

First Tarvaris Jackson needed to learn the offense, then he needed to get comfortable, now he needs time to recover from the knee sprain. How many FG’s does the best team in the NFL without a QB have to kick before people stop making excuses and just him as the Kordell Stewart II experience? He’s not a QB, he’s a featured back.

But the only thing worse than having a running QB who can’t pass (see Jackson, T.) is a passing QB who can neither run nor pass. Herman Edwards, the sandlot called, they want Brodie Croyle back. How did Croyle get an NFL roster spot, much less a starting job? I wouldn’t want that guy QB’ing a wheelchair team. The wheelchair guys would roll all over him.

Raven ravers are wacko for Flacco. How can you not give it up for this guy? He delivered, and with not much notice. Sure, it gets a lot harder real soon for Joe, and yes it’s only one game. Still, he has a memory that’s hard to top.

Matty Ice announced that the Falcons have a QB for the first time this millennium. Now that Home Depot is a memory, maybe Arthur Blank is doing some critical thinking before he writes checks larger than the GDP of third world countries.  Don’t crown Ryan just yet, but the guy has it. Having Michael Turner as a pair of handcuffs never hurts either. Now if he can just convince the Atlanta wideouts that the ball is not a UFO.

Jeff Garcia’s hurt and out for week 2. He missed almost all of training camp with an injury. He’s 38. He’s undersized. He winds up for three yard outs. He doesn’t understand why the Bucs didn’t give him an extension. Really, I’m not kidding. He doesn’t understand.

Big Ben won big. Big Ben has an injury. Three years ago, I said the biggest challenge with this guy would be keeping him healthy. Bring back Tommy “Gun” Maddox!!!

Finally, write this down: Peyton Manning was not ready to play on Sunday. Somewhere, somehow (Mr. Irsay), the message came in that; if he could crawl, he was starting the first game in the house that Peyton built. Manning gets props for toughing it out, but he was as far off his game as I’ve ever seen. My fear is that he’s having chronic infection issues with that knee. Nothing else explains the lingering problems from a very minor procedure. How many times have we heard of players losing seasons or even careers to staph infections? For Manning’s and the game’s sake, I hope he recovers fully and quickly. I used to detest manning, but that SB win did something for him. Ever since, he’s been humble and self effacing. A few of his commercials are hilarious too.

One of my favorite NFL Network Commercials is the "time to get your story straight" ad. The one where they show the pre-season commentary from everyday fans that ends up completely backwards. Statements like, "Mark my words, this is Cleveland's year" come to mind.

Nonetheless, I have the same right to go out on a limb and embarass myself too. So with that in mind, I'm going to post my crow now and eat it later. So here are my predictions for noteworthy developments in the upcoming season of the greatest show on turf. (The NFL, not just the Rams).

McNabb McChoked

1. Donovan McNabb is auditioning for his next team. With a rash of injuries, hurried rehab, no contract extension, and huge cap numbers looming, McChoke is a ghost in Philly. Don't be surprised is Dumbavan struggles early and Felly/Kolb start splitting reps by week 3. Reid has ultimate confidence in Feeley. His decision to bench him for the playoffs a few years back cost the Birds a SB shot.

2. John Gruden will be the next big name coach to be fired. Tony Dungy's SB win last year solidified the fact that Gruden was a recipient of the Switzer (formerly known as the Seifert) Trophy in Tampa. That's the award you win when the coach before you builds a championship team that could win a SB with a blow up doll at HC. Gruden has put his stamp on the Bucs like Seifert did or the Panthers. Just remember, Jon, when you have seven QB's, you have no QB.

3. The Colts will not repeat. Their personnel losses mean they will score fewer points and other teams will score more points.

4. That "Write In" SB Trophy for the Pats is premature. The Pats have serious questions at RB and LB, two positions that tend to mean a great deal to playoff teams. Besides, Randy Moss never makes a team better. The fact that the Pats decided to retool via spending spree is a departure from what made them great anyway.

5. The Vikes are in serious trouble offensively. To paraphrase ex-ESPN analyst Joe Theismann; "the problem with having Tavaris Jackson as your QB is that Tavaris Jackson is your QB". The only thing more frightening than a season with Jackson under center is half a season with Brooks Bollinger under center.

6. Priest Holmes will come back successfully. Will he be the Priest of old, maybe not quite. Will he make Larry Johnson trade bait? Yes.

7. Just like Bill Cowher used to coach great teams into mediocrity, Norv Turner will coach a very good team into ineptitude. The wheels may not come completely off this year in SD, but if the Chargers win ten and even sneak into the second season, it will be a blessing to the town that gave us Jimmy Durante.

8. The same Dallas Cowboys who cursed Parcells on the way out the door, will be wishing for another new coach after ten weeks of Wade Phillips. Wade is not a winning HC. Watching him mishandle the talent that Parcells assembled in Dallas is going to be ugly. Jerry Jones is starting to look more and more like Dan Snyder every day.

9. The fear of the QB formerly known as "Joey" in Atlanta is earth-shattering overkill. Harrington has slightly better career stats than his predecessor and is sacked far less often. Few people bother to remember that, despite the NFL's best run game by a wide margin, Vick is the most sacked QB in the NFL. Sacks kill drives and give field position away, kids. With a QB at QB, even "Joseph", the ShitBirds are immediately better off offesnively.

Mike Vick's Next Training Camp

10. Mike Vick no longer possesses that "escapability" that NFL announcers so often waxed about. (Actually, if you look at Vick's sacks per attempt, even nearly-crippled Peyton Manning has much better "escapability".) Vicks' real escapability, though will start to be tested Monday, when at least one of his co-defendants will plea-out and (without doubt) offer replete and damning testimony on Ron Mexico's leadership in his dog-killing ring. He did esacpe one thing though, his Nike Contract.

11. Vince Young will struggle as teams begin to employ the Cunningham/Stewart/Vick defense against him. Despite the Tacks excellent ground game, Young will be forced to become effective from the pocket. I'm not saying he won;t learn how to play the position in the NFL, but his real learning curve wil decelerate as teams get to know him.

12. The Panthers will continue to be overrated. I don't need to explain this.

13. JaMarcus Russell is already benched until year two. With no contract in sight, the guy who most needs TC on the team that most needs a QB, can not even dare to play him this year. He'd have a better rookie year if the RayDuhs put him in a giant blender.

14. Nobody cares if Michael Strahan holds out. He's an aging star on a team in transition at many skill positions. Coughlin is done and Bil Cowher will either end up here or in Cleveland depending on Romeo Crennel's progress.

15. The Cro-Magnon in a cheerleader suit returns. Just when we thought cerebral guys like Mike Nolan were the new wave of HC's, look for some "I wanna win now" owner to hire the Missing Link to continue the commitment to mediocrity he pioneered in Pittsburgh. I truly believe that Cowher will end up in Cleveland, though. He's a Schotty Disciple from the Brown days, played ball there and knows like no one else, how to lose big games at home. The fit is perfect. It's clear that Al Lerner knows a good deal more about window-shopping than trap-blocking. Don't rule out Dan Snyder, though. I think Gibbs will finally admit that he never regained the edge he lost before his first retirement.

16. Matt Schaub will make the Texans better. Unfortunatley, that means they'll be mediocre.

17. The Steelers will have some growing pains under Mike Tomlin. It's likely that part of the transition will see the Steelers shedding  overpriced, over-the-hill and underperforming LB's like Farrior and Haggans along with the 52 Defense Cowher adored for so long. Don't be surprised to see a lot more 4-3 looks right away with either Woodley or Timmons in a 3-point stance, and eventually the combination of Timmons and Woodley on the outside with Harrison in the middle of a 4-3 alignment.

18. Byron Leftwich will play his last season in JAX. Despite DelRio's politically correct speak, he's clearly not a Leftwich believer. I don't think he's a Garrard believer either. The Jags aren't convinced Culpepper will ever be healthy, though. Don't be shocked if Jake Plummer ends up in Jagland, or the Jags draft a young QB and sign a make-due vet next year.

Old enough to QB, but can't buy beer.

19. The big problem in KC is not LJ, it's BC. Handing the QB job to a guy whose had two incredible preseasons is a risk. Handing the job to a guy whose had two pretty good preseasons is a symptom of psychosis. Hasn't Herm Edwards learned that the QB does matter. Did he forget about his job with the Jets?

20. Trent Green will start in Miami and get hurt again. Who's backing him up again? It may as well be Joey Porter, because Porter will at least enjoy running his mouth in the huddle.

Those are just a few insights into what I'm expecting in NFL 2007.

Let's hear your thoughts

 

I've been unfairly maligned for pointing out the foibles of black NFL QB's for some time now. Face facts folks, I don't make the news, I just pass it along. For that reason, I find it unnecessary to defend my critique of this group or any other. What's ironic is that the line of critics stretching around the corner to label me a racist never jump in to mention how my sports writing hero is Ralph Wiley. They never rush to restate my admiration of of Doug Williams, either.

But as I've said all along, I'm all about the truth here. And the truth sets me free. Just as I hope it sets Daunte Culpepper free.

 I've seen the best of Culpepper and the worst of Culpepper just like the rest of us, and still I remain committed to the idea that this guy (however streaky he is) is one of the most under-appreciated, immensely gifted, and poorly coached QB's of his time. It ails me to hear #### announcers rave about a borderline #### like Steve McNair being such a physical phenom, when Culpepper posesses all the gifts McNair has but much more of them. McNair, however has had the gift of at least a competitive supporting cast around him.

But what I think makes me continue to hold Culpepper is high esteem is the way he copes with adversity. Like he has in dealing with the Trent Green situation. While Culpepper was right in stating that Miami rushed him back last year and is rushing him out the door now, he stopped short of embarassing himslef because what he said made perfect sense. Culpepper didn't stop there, though. He nicely packaged his request to be released as on opportunity for teams to get to know him at market value, rather than absorb what has become an inflated contract. This is a QB with a brain.  Even if his agent hand wrote the statement for him, he chose to deliver it, and that's the decision that counts. Kudos to Dante, I wish we could sign him in Pittsburgh, but I think he can and should start ahead of a long line of other NFL QB's. I sincerely hope he regains his health and stays away from the other AFCN teams.

But wait, there's more. From the "just when I thought Vince Young was Kordell II" department. Young completely flummoxes me by not only insisting that his WR's come to train with him in their off time, he foots the bill for the travel accomodations. I was clearly wrong about Young being stupid. His wonderlic score may say "dumb", but has any other 2nd year QB ever done this before. Tom Brady? No. Peyton Manning? No. In the simplest terms, Young has already shown more commitment than any other QB in the NFL this year. As much as I hate the Flaming Thumbtacks, I have to feel good for their fans and for Young.

Unfortunatley, it's not all good news. The Federal Stromtroopers raided Ron Mexico's PitBull Hotel, after waiting way too long for the yokels to remove their thumbs from their ####s. Naturally, the humiliated local cops fell all over themselves making excuses and even playing the race card. But who's buying it. The entire USA, and half of Atlanta (the half of the GA dome that Vick flipped off) was already wondering why the investigation seemed to be moving slower than evolution down there.

For ATL fans, this means you might have wished Artie kept Matt Schaub one season longer. After all, we know Matt Schaub, we've seen Matt Schaub, and gentlemen, Chris Redman is no Matt Schaub. Vick supporters can continue the delusions as much as they'd like, but when the Feds come knocking, it's a whole different ballgame. If the Feds had taken over the OJ case, he'd be just about out of appeals right now and ordering his last meal. OJ will be forever thanking his lucky stars that he was enraged enough to do his killing within state lines.

I can only wonder what Goody is going to do now that his hanging judge reputation will be challenged by a genuine top-draw. Because, make no mistake about it, even though he's struggled to become an average QB, Vick puts butts in seats. And that's the business the NFL is in.

Then again, maybe Goodell won't have to act right away. Maybe the Feds will take care of that for him.