What’s the over under on David Garrard turning back into the pumpkin that couldn’t win a starting job (for how many seasons)? I’m betting 4 games until it happens and 9 games until the PC avengers admit it. No question, Garrard had a dream season last year, but really now. Funny how talking heads were still calling Tom Brady a game manager after he’d won three SB’s, but they heap praise on a one year wonder with the best 1-2 running punch in the NFL. Now that Jax is missing two guards, MJD is starting slow and Fred Taylor seems to be coping with some issues, we saw what happens when Garrard has to win games by himself. He doesn’t.

One can’t help but feel for Tom Brady, and despise Bill Belichick.  Brady’s never been a bruiser, and I had long sensed he was due for a big hurt. Still, no one wants to see a player hurt. I don’t know if Belichick’s arrogance is tolerable anymore, though. It’s not the “life goes on” act he sells to the press that gets me. It’s the disservice he does to the fans by not looking for some insurance at the QB spot.  Sure Belichick wants to prove that he’s the reason NE has flourished, and to a large degree he is. But how many big winners (see Shula, D, and Noll, C.) floundered for a decade or so after they lost their hall of famers?

Yeah, Broadway Brett’s Jets beat the fish. So? Only the Dolphins lose on a Hail Mary. Besides, am I the only one who’s willing to admit that Pennington’s arm is made of balsa wood and chewing gum?

First Tarvaris Jackson needed to learn the offense, then he needed to get comfortable, now he needs time to recover from the knee sprain. How many FG’s does the best team in the NFL without a QB have to kick before people stop making excuses and just him as the Kordell Stewart II experience? He’s not a QB, he’s a featured back.

But the only thing worse than having a running QB who can’t pass (see Jackson, T.) is a passing QB who can neither run nor pass. Herman Edwards, the sandlot called, they want Brodie Croyle back. How did Croyle get an NFL roster spot, much less a starting job? I wouldn’t want that guy QB’ing a wheelchair team. The wheelchair guys would roll all over him.

Raven ravers are wacko for Flacco. How can you not give it up for this guy? He delivered, and with not much notice. Sure, it gets a lot harder real soon for Joe, and yes it’s only one game. Still, he has a memory that’s hard to top.

Matty Ice announced that the Falcons have a QB for the first time this millennium. Now that Home Depot is a memory, maybe Arthur Blank is doing some critical thinking before he writes checks larger than the GDP of third world countries.  Don’t crown Ryan just yet, but the guy has it. Having Michael Turner as a pair of handcuffs never hurts either. Now if he can just convince the Atlanta wideouts that the ball is not a UFO.

Jeff Garcia’s hurt and out for week 2. He missed almost all of training camp with an injury. He’s 38. He’s undersized. He winds up for three yard outs. He doesn’t understand why the Bucs didn’t give him an extension. Really, I’m not kidding. He doesn’t understand.

Big Ben won big. Big Ben has an injury. Three years ago, I said the biggest challenge with this guy would be keeping him healthy. Bring back Tommy “Gun” Maddox!!!

Finally, write this down: Peyton Manning was not ready to play on Sunday. Somewhere, somehow (Mr. Irsay), the message came in that; if he could crawl, he was starting the first game in the house that Peyton built. Manning gets props for toughing it out, but he was as far off his game as I’ve ever seen. My fear is that he’s having chronic infection issues with that knee. Nothing else explains the lingering problems from a very minor procedure. How many times have we heard of players losing seasons or even careers to staph infections? For Manning’s and the game’s sake, I hope he recovers fully and quickly. I used to detest manning, but that SB win did something for him. Ever since, he’s been humble and self effacing. A few of his commercials are hilarious too.

His Most Humble . . . .

So Mike Vick manufactures an act of contrition, and a press, worried about looking "judgmental" and "racist" describes the act as a "good first step". I'm not so sure.

I can't be the only one who noticed how desperately uncomfortable the, formerly "above the law",  ex-QB looked in making his first  relevant statement to the public since the story broke. He looked about as humble as Donald Trump's comb-over.

Sure he cited the three musts from "contrition for dummies" handbook. "Accept responsibility, found Jesus, ask forgiveness . . . ." but even those bare necessities sounded canned and disingenuous coming from a sedate(d) soft-spoken, Ron Mexico.

So pardon me, kids, if I'm not floating on the raft of #### Vick just set adrift. Just because he's managed to stop himself from flippping the bird at the fans and society in general, doesn't mean I believe he's on a mission from God now. The only think Vick has ever been able to fake was being an NFL QB.

Guys I'm Pulling For . . . .

Duante Culpepper

Hating the Raiders as only a Steeler fan can, it's hard to cop to cheering for any Raider. But I can't be more hopeful for anyone in the NFL than Duante Culpepper. Yes, Culpepper underperformed a huge deal in Minnysoda, and got the eight train. But what happened to him in Miami was unbelievably unfair. Regardless of the notion that Culpepper is a streaky QB whose streaks seem to last entire seasons, I've always loved his bazooka arm and his athletic ability. Aside from that, this Jamarcus Russel saga is bordering on insanity. The guy's never taken a snap and he's holding out over bonus money? For Culpepper's sake. I hope Russell continues his bizarre combination of idiocy and greed until Duante has at least enough time to prove that Miami was a fiasco.

Joey, formerly Joseph, (aka Joey) Harrington

While I'm not necessarily a Harrington believer, could a QB land in two worse spots than Detroit and Miami recently? Besides, I'd like nothing more than seeing the Falcons emerge from the ####-storm Vick tossed on them, to become a competitive franchise by playing an actual QB at QB. Maybe Harrington got what he deserved, maybe he just sucks. But no franchise and no city full of fans should be punished to death for putting their faith in a player who chose to immediatley and repeatedly #### on them.

Add to that the fact that Harrington, by a shade, is a better QB over his career than Vick, and gets sacked less often. Atlanta and the rest of NFL fans need to accept the reality that QB position does not require re-inventing. Every QB who the media ever labeled as re-inventing the position re-invented themselves out of a job.

What a wonderful lesson to be learned if the Falcons survive and even thrive with a QB at QB.

Guys I wish would stay home . . . . .

Priest Holmes

Don't get me wrong, It's impossible to dislike Priest Holmes as a man or a ball player. But at this point, you have to ask; why? KC is not a SB contender, and the odds priest would be released (if he even makes the roster) to sign with a contender are minimal. But the odds that he could be seriously injured in game action are high enough to wonder what is driving this man. As a RB, he has nothing to prove. As a competitor, he has nothing to prove. And I haven't heard that he's run out of money . . . .

What frightens me is the mere possibility that one of the NFL's class acts and former best talents will take just one more hit. One more that stops him from leaving the field for the last time, under his own power. That's something I'd rather not see happen.

I never played pro-ball, but I suited in High-School. I still remember the click-clack of those cleats on the cement, the sense of invincibility one gets when donning the pads and helmet, and the absolute thrill of performing for the folks cheering you on. i can only imagine how hard it is to move on from the biggest stage, in the niggest game in pro sports. I hear the longing in Sterling Sharpe's voice every time I see him on TV, his career cut short by a neck problem. But then I think of the late Darryl Stingley and it makes me wish Priest would move on.

Vinny Interceptaverde

Oh please. What is this guy, 65 now. So he's played in every decade since Edison invented the light bulb, big deal. I get the feeling Belichick keeps inviting him back for doing time with him in Cleveland . I'm sorry, but I just don't get it. You can get a much younger, 2nd rate QB to play 3rd fidlle for a lot less money than a 73-year veteran. And he'll probably throw fewer game busting picks.

That's what kills me about VinnyT. It's not like he's some wise old sage, whose best days are behind him. He's a sorry old choker whose best days were in high school. I mean this is the guy Jimmy Johnson benched for the National Championship game because he tore up his leg on a motor scooter the weekend before the match. This is the guy who never met a choke he didn't like.

Bill, if Jimmy from South Park were here he'd say, "it's like, come on".

And it is Bill. "It's like, come on".

One of my favorite NFL Network Commercials is the "time to get your story straight" ad. The one where they show the pre-season commentary from everyday fans that ends up completely backwards. Statements like, "Mark my words, this is Cleveland's year" come to mind.

Nonetheless, I have the same right to go out on a limb and embarass myself too. So with that in mind, I'm going to post my crow now and eat it later. So here are my predictions for noteworthy developments in the upcoming season of the greatest show on turf. (The NFL, not just the Rams).

McNabb McChoked

1. Donovan McNabb is auditioning for his next team. With a rash of injuries, hurried rehab, no contract extension, and huge cap numbers looming, McChoke is a ghost in Philly. Don't be surprised is Dumbavan struggles early and Felly/Kolb start splitting reps by week 3. Reid has ultimate confidence in Feeley. His decision to bench him for the playoffs a few years back cost the Birds a SB shot.

2. John Gruden will be the next big name coach to be fired. Tony Dungy's SB win last year solidified the fact that Gruden was a recipient of the Switzer (formerly known as the Seifert) Trophy in Tampa. That's the award you win when the coach before you builds a championship team that could win a SB with a blow up doll at HC. Gruden has put his stamp on the Bucs like Seifert did or the Panthers. Just remember, Jon, when you have seven QB's, you have no QB.

3. The Colts will not repeat. Their personnel losses mean they will score fewer points and other teams will score more points.

4. That "Write In" SB Trophy for the Pats is premature. The Pats have serious questions at RB and LB, two positions that tend to mean a great deal to playoff teams. Besides, Randy Moss never makes a team better. The fact that the Pats decided to retool via spending spree is a departure from what made them great anyway.

5. The Vikes are in serious trouble offensively. To paraphrase ex-ESPN analyst Joe Theismann; "the problem with having Tavaris Jackson as your QB is that Tavaris Jackson is your QB". The only thing more frightening than a season with Jackson under center is half a season with Brooks Bollinger under center.

6. Priest Holmes will come back successfully. Will he be the Priest of old, maybe not quite. Will he make Larry Johnson trade bait? Yes.

7. Just like Bill Cowher used to coach great teams into mediocrity, Norv Turner will coach a very good team into ineptitude. The wheels may not come completely off this year in SD, but if the Chargers win ten and even sneak into the second season, it will be a blessing to the town that gave us Jimmy Durante.

8. The same Dallas Cowboys who cursed Parcells on the way out the door, will be wishing for another new coach after ten weeks of Wade Phillips. Wade is not a winning HC. Watching him mishandle the talent that Parcells assembled in Dallas is going to be ugly. Jerry Jones is starting to look more and more like Dan Snyder every day.

9. The fear of the QB formerly known as "Joey" in Atlanta is earth-shattering overkill. Harrington has slightly better career stats than his predecessor and is sacked far less often. Few people bother to remember that, despite the NFL's best run game by a wide margin, Vick is the most sacked QB in the NFL. Sacks kill drives and give field position away, kids. With a QB at QB, even "Joseph", the ShitBirds are immediately better off offesnively.

Mike Vick's Next Training Camp

10. Mike Vick no longer possesses that "escapability" that NFL announcers so often waxed about. (Actually, if you look at Vick's sacks per attempt, even nearly-crippled Peyton Manning has much better "escapability".) Vicks' real escapability, though will start to be tested Monday, when at least one of his co-defendants will plea-out and (without doubt) offer replete and damning testimony on Ron Mexico's leadership in his dog-killing ring. He did esacpe one thing though, his Nike Contract.

11. Vince Young will struggle as teams begin to employ the Cunningham/Stewart/Vick defense against him. Despite the Tacks excellent ground game, Young will be forced to become effective from the pocket. I'm not saying he won;t learn how to play the position in the NFL, but his real learning curve wil decelerate as teams get to know him.

12. The Panthers will continue to be overrated. I don't need to explain this.

13. JaMarcus Russell is already benched until year two. With no contract in sight, the guy who most needs TC on the team that most needs a QB, can not even dare to play him this year. He'd have a better rookie year if the RayDuhs put him in a giant blender.

14. Nobody cares if Michael Strahan holds out. He's an aging star on a team in transition at many skill positions. Coughlin is done and Bil Cowher will either end up here or in Cleveland depending on Romeo Crennel's progress.

15. The Cro-Magnon in a cheerleader suit returns. Just when we thought cerebral guys like Mike Nolan were the new wave of HC's, look for some "I wanna win now" owner to hire the Missing Link to continue the commitment to mediocrity he pioneered in Pittsburgh. I truly believe that Cowher will end up in Cleveland, though. He's a Schotty Disciple from the Brown days, played ball there and knows like no one else, how to lose big games at home. The fit is perfect. It's clear that Al Lerner knows a good deal more about window-shopping than trap-blocking. Don't rule out Dan Snyder, though. I think Gibbs will finally admit that he never regained the edge he lost before his first retirement.

16. Matt Schaub will make the Texans better. Unfortunatley, that means they'll be mediocre.

17. The Steelers will have some growing pains under Mike Tomlin. It's likely that part of the transition will see the Steelers shedding  overpriced, over-the-hill and underperforming LB's like Farrior and Haggans along with the 52 Defense Cowher adored for so long. Don't be surprised to see a lot more 4-3 looks right away with either Woodley or Timmons in a 3-point stance, and eventually the combination of Timmons and Woodley on the outside with Harrison in the middle of a 4-3 alignment.

18. Byron Leftwich will play his last season in JAX. Despite DelRio's politically correct speak, he's clearly not a Leftwich believer. I don't think he's a Garrard believer either. The Jags aren't convinced Culpepper will ever be healthy, though. Don't be shocked if Jake Plummer ends up in Jagland, or the Jags draft a young QB and sign a make-due vet next year.

Old enough to QB, but can't buy beer.

19. The big problem in KC is not LJ, it's BC. Handing the QB job to a guy whose had two incredible preseasons is a risk. Handing the job to a guy whose had two pretty good preseasons is a symptom of psychosis. Hasn't Herm Edwards learned that the QB does matter. Did he forget about his job with the Jets?

20. Trent Green will start in Miami and get hurt again. Who's backing him up again? It may as well be Joey Porter, because Porter will at least enjoy running his mouth in the huddle.

Those are just a few insights into what I'm expecting in NFL 2007.

Let's hear your thoughts

 

The Playoffs

IND/BAL

Were you as shocked as I was? On 3rd and goal with a minute remaining, Peyton Manning just fell on the turf so Adam Vinatieri could kick his fifth FG to go up by nine. Sure, it was the safe call, but this was after all, the NFL poster boy, king of media hype, regular season legend, Peyton Manning. You mean you don't let him take a shot at the end zone? No.

No you don't. And what I saw yesterday led me to believe that Tony Dungy was actually coaching the Colts, instead of deferring to Manning. It was a nice change. I'm thinking that Dungy has learned from the example of Mike Shanahan (managing John Elway) who knew: 1. You very rarely win playoff games without running the ball 2. When your QB has a history of choking, you don't put the ball in his hands if you don't have put the ball in his hands. Deep down, I kind of root for long suffering chokers, except Marty Schottenheimer, and I secretly hope that Manning finds a way to break the "yeah but" curse. I also know that if it meant winning a SB, he'd be just fine if the Colts kicked nothing but FG's the rest of the way.

It also merits mention that you can't win solely on defense. I told a friend earlier this week that I didn't think the Ravens would get past the Colts because I have no faith in Steve McNair come January. McNair's record in his last six playoff games before last night, 2-4. Now he's 2-5. McNair is not a smart QB. As a matter of fact, he rivals Mike Vick for the slowest brain ever at the position, and dumb guys don't win playoff games. McNair stupidly jammed the game killing pick into the hands of the Colts. Where was all of his veteran leadership then? I don't which was more ridiculous, McNair's pick or Ray Lewis' Halloween costume in the post game press conference.

 
NO/PHI

The Saints are a well coached team. The Eagles came out on fire last night, almost knocking out Reggie Bush early, taking a few leads and playing ferocious D. But Bush and the Saints were resilient and poised all night long. These teams were very evenly matched and when that is the case, the difference is coaching. What does that say about the veteran, Andy Reid. He's a one speed coach, a la Bill Cowher, who can't elevate his team come January. I felt terrible for Jeff Garcia who played his heart out and at 36 or 37 will likely have few if any chances to take a team to the SB again.

Can the Saints win out? I don't think so. For some unthinkable reason, I still believe in Rex Grossman and the Bears.

The Coaching

The truth is beginning to come out in Pittsburgh. Ever since Art Rooney Jr. made the remark that "it's about time we won our fifth SB" bfore the 2005 training camp I knew Bill Cowher's time was short. If the obvious distance between Cowher and Art Jr. at Cowher's resignation (not retirement) PC wasn't enough, now the word from a Cowher confidant is that "it didn't have to end like this". This only makes me more sure than ever, that Art Jr. only needed one disaster follow up to a SB miracle to push the slobbering goon out the door. At some point or another, word will get out that Art Jr. grew tired of the cheerleading act and the postseason disasters  and paved the way for Cowher's exit.

The Pittsburgh press is throwing Cowher a bone by saying the Steelers are interviewing Chandler Gailey at Cowher's recommendation. Gailey was the guy who would have replaced Cowher in 1998 had Danny boy done the right thing and fired him back when he should have.
 

Just when you think Arthur Blank has learned his lesson, he hires a project to coach a failure. When you look at Mike Vick's career, it so closely mirrors that of Kordell Stewart it's amazing. And we all know how it ended up for Korkie. If the Falcons wanted a last crack at developing Vick, the best choice was undoubtedly Ken Whisenhunt. Whiz is adept at getting favorable matchups, without sophisticated in-play adjustments, which plays to Vick's very limited mentality. And Whiz has NFL experience. Who was the last college coach to make a successful transition to the NFL? Jimmy Johnson, 17 years ago.  My guess is that Blank just wanted a puppet coach so he can try to run the team from the press box. It doesn't matter though, more freedom for Vick is just extra rope with which to hang himself.

I'm not sure that Raider and Cradinal fans even care who coaches their teams as long as the departing coaches are gone. Denny Green and Art Shell are the poster children for the lobby to discontinue affirmative action.  Have  you ever seen two more clueless idiots  on an NFL  sideline.  Both teams would have been better off if the ballboy's had taken over.

So Nick Saban took the guaranteed money and ran. So what. Players do this all the time and no one questions it. Yes, Saban handled it poorly with the press, what else is new? When did Saban ever handle the press well? The guy took a cushy job for a lot of money, and will be in control of almost all aspects of his coaching destiny instead of pandering to crybaby prima donnas. Tough choice, huh?

The Rumors

There was some talk that, if Garcia took the Eagles deep, Philly might trade McNabb to Minnesota. I doubt this. But not because McNabb is the better QB, especially for the WC system. As a matter of fact, watching Garcia run the Eagles offense has been a thing of beauty, and watching McNabb jammed into a dink and dunk offense with his cannon arm and incredible physical gifts has been excruciating at times. But if the Eagles unload the injury prone McNabb, and I think they should, their first job is to draft a QB, because the diminutive Garcia is always one good hit away from retirement and not to far away from Social Security either. My guess is they keep McNabb and Garcia for one more season and try to get a better, younger fit for the WC, like Matt Schaub.

Herm Edwards is growing less and less confident in Trent Green. His threat to scrap the playbook and firing a close friend of Green, assistant John Shea, is evdience of that. But this why Edwards will never take a team deep in January. Don't get me wrong, Chief fans, I love Edwards as a person. But he's kidding himself if he thinks it's anyone's fault but his that the Chefs didn't have a better regular and post season. Edwards brought back Green too early and stuck with him too long. The Chefs were your typical sixth seed, a team that got lucky late and didn't deserve to be in the postseason. Edwards kidded himself about that too.

Will Bill Parcells stay in Dallas? Who cares. Parcells is obviously well past his prime but has assembled some excellent talent. Jerry Jones would be smart to keeep Parcells on where he belongs, as GM. Except that's the job Jerry thinks he's doing. 

Will Marty retire if he wins the SB? The answer is the same as what I'll do if I win the lotto. Why not discuss what society will do to handle the cleanup when Pigs start flying? Who are we kidding here. Cowher managed to dump a 15-1 season in the ####, what on earth makes anyone think that Chokenheimer can't burn a 14-2 season to the ground in January.